Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 12 Feb 2025
| 12 Feb 2025
Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes
British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK
Nicholas E. Barrand
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK
David M. Hannah
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK
Emily Potter
School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Nilton Montoya
Agriculture Department, Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, Peru
Wouter Buytaert
Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
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Veerle Vanacker, Armando Molina, Miluska A. Rosas, Vivien Bonnesoeur, Francisco Román-Dañobeytia, Boris F. Ochoa-Tocachi, and Wouter Buytaert
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Paul C. Astagneau, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Juraj Parajka, Claudia C. Brauer, Alberto Viglione, Wouter Buytaert, and Keith J. Beven
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Kate E. Ashley, Robert McKay, Johan Etourneau, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Alan Condron, Anna Albot, Xavier Crosta, Christina Riesselman, Osamu Seki, Guillaume Massé, Nicholas R. Golledge, Edward Gasson, Daniel P. Lowry, Nicholas E. Barrand, Katelyn Johnson, Nancy Bertler, Carlota Escutia, Robert Dunbar, and James A. Bendle
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We present a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability off East Antarctica. Our record shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene (~ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth, which slowed basal ice shelf melting.
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Short summary
We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically neglected but thought to control tropical glacier retreat (e.g. sublimation). We apply the model to Peru's Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin. The model captures observed glacier mass changes,but struggles with surface albedo dynamics. Projections show glacier mass shrinking to 17 % or 6 % of 2000 levels by 2100 under moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively.
We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically...
