Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes

Mackay, Jonathan D.; Barrand, Nicholas E.; Hannah, David M.; Potter, Emily; Montoya, Nilton; Buytaert, Wouter

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 2

Research article

|

12 Feb 2025

Research article |

| 12 Feb 2025

Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes

Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Emily Potter, Nilton Montoya, and Wouter Buytaert

Model code and software

OGGM/oggm: v1.4.0 F. Maussion et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4546676

pysolar 0.11 B. Stafford https://pypi.org/project/pysolar/0.11/

A simple and efficient method for global sensitivity analysis based on cumulative distribution functions (https://github.com/SAFEtoolbox/SAFE-python) F. Pianosi and T. Wagener https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.004

Short summary

We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically neglected but thought to control tropical glacier retreat (e.g. sublimation). We apply the model to Peru's Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin. The model captures observed glacier mass changes,but struggles with surface albedo dynamics. Projections show glacier mass shrinking to 17 % or 6 % of 2000 levels by 2100 under moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively.