Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
Research article
07 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 07 Nov 2023

Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations

Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis

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Cited articles

Aschwanden, A. and Brinkerhoff, D. J.: Calibrated Mass Loss Predictions for the Greenland Ice Sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099058,, 2022. a, b
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R. H., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Sea Level over the next Millennium, Science Advances, 5, eaav9396,, 2019. a
Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Truffer, M.: Brief Communication: A Roadmap towards Credible Projections of Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level, The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715,, 2021. a, b
Bondzio, J. H., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M., Humbert, A., and Larour, E. Y.: Modelling calving front dynamics using a level-set method: application to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, The Cryosphere, 10, 497–510,, 2016. a
Csatho, B. M., Schenk, A. F., van der Veen, C. J., Babonis, G., Duncan, K., Rezvanbehbahani, S., van den Broeke, M. R., Simonsen, S. B., Nagarajan, S., and van Angelen, J. H.: Laser Altimetry Reveals Complex Pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet Dynamics, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 18478–18483,, 2014. a
Short summary
We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.