Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 07 Nov 2023
| 07 Nov 2023
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations
Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
formerly at: Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations II, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, USA
Sophie Nowicki
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Isabel Nias
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Beata Csatho
Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
Anton Schenk
Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
Michael J. Croteau
Geodesy and Geophysics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Bryant Loomis
Geodesy and Geophysics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
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Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, 2023
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Marine-terminating glaciers can lose mass through frontal ablation, which comprises submarine and surface melting, and iceberg calving. We estimate frontal ablation for 49 marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland by combining existing, satellite derived data and calculating volume change near the glacier front over time. The dataset offers exciting opportunities to study the influence of climate forcings on marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland over multi-decadal timescales.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
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Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Christian J. Taubenberger, Denis Felikson, and Thomas Neumann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1341–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1341-2022, 2022
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David W. Ashmore, Douglas W. F. Mair, Jonathan E. Higham, Stephen Brough, James M. Lea, and Isabel J. Nias
The Cryosphere, 16, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, 2022
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In this paper we explore the use of a transferrable and flexible statistical technique to try and untangle the multiple influences on marine-terminating glacier dynamics, as measured from space. We decompose a satellite-derived ice velocity record into ranked sets of static maps and temporal coefficients. We present evidence that the approach can identify velocity variability mainly driven by changes in terminus position and velocity variation mainly driven by subglacial hydrological processes.
William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, 2021
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This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Mathieu Morlighem, Surendra Adhikari, Thomas Frederikse, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Erik Ivins, Benjamin Hamlington, Robert Kopp, and Sophie Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4925–4941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, 2020
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ISSM-SLPS is a new projection system for future sea level that increases the resolution and accuracy of current projection systems and improves the way uncertainty is treated in such projections. This will pave the way for better inclusion of state-of-the-art results from existing intercomparison efforts carried out by the scientific community, such as GlacierMIP2 or ISMIP6, into sea-level projections.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Tore Hattermann, Fiammetta Straneo, Hélène Seroussi, Christopher M. Little, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020
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To predict the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise, we need to use ice sheet models. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for AR6 (ISMIP6) builds an ensemble of ice sheet projections constrained by atmosphere and ocean projections from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In this work, we present and assess a method to derive ice shelf basal melting in ISMIP6 from the CMIP6 ocean outputs, and we give examples of projected melt rates.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Cited articles
Aschwanden, A. and Brinkerhoff, D. J.: Calibrated Mass Loss Predictions for the Greenland Ice Sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099058, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099058, 2022. a, b
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R. H., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Sea Level over the next Millennium, Science Advances, 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a
Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Truffer, M.: Brief Communication: A Roadmap towards Credible Projections of Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level, The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021. a, b
Bondzio, J. H., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M., Humbert, A., and Larour, E. Y.: Modelling calving front dynamics using a level-set method: application to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, The Cryosphere, 10, 497–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-497-2016, 2016. a
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Short summary
We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.
We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change,...
