Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023
Research article
 | 
07 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 07 Nov 2023

Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations

Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis

Related authors

GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
Short summary
Brief communication: Preliminary ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2) measurements of outlet glaciers reveal heterogeneous patterns of seasonal dynamic thickness change
Christian J. Taubenberger, Denis Felikson, and Thomas Neumann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1341–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1341-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1341-2022, 2022
Short summary
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution
Donald A. Slater, Denis Felikson, Fiamma Straneo, Heiko Goelzer, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Xavier Fettweis, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Greenland
Coupling MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) with PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model) mitigates the positive melt–elevation feedback
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Cloud- and ice-albedo feedbacks drive greater Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to warming in CMIP6 than in CMIP5
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
Short summary
Evaluating different geothermal heat-flow maps as basal boundary conditions during spin-up of the Greenland ice sheet
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Seasonal evolution of the supraglacial drainage network at Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, between 2016 and 2020
Lauren D. Rawlins, David M. Rippin, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Kang Yang
The Cryosphere, 17, 4729–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, 2023
Short summary
Subglacial valleys preserved in the highlands of south and east Greenland record restricted ice extent during past warmer climates
Guy J. G. Paxman, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Aisling M. Dolan, and Michael J. Bentley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2502,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2502, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Aschwanden, A. and Brinkerhoff, D. J.: Calibrated Mass Loss Predictions for the Greenland Ice Sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099058, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099058, 2022. a, b
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R. H., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Sea Level over the next Millennium, Science Advances, 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a
Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Truffer, M.: Brief Communication: A Roadmap towards Credible Projections of Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level, The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021. a, b
Bondzio, J. H., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M., Humbert, A., and Larour, E. Y.: Modelling calving front dynamics using a level-set method: application to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, The Cryosphere, 10, 497–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-497-2016, 2016. a
Csatho, B. M., Schenk, A. F., van der Veen, C. J., Babonis, G., Duncan, K., Rezvanbehbahani, S., van den Broeke, M. R., Simonsen, S. B., Nagarajan, S., and van Angelen, J. H.: Laser Altimetry Reveals Complex Pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet Dynamics, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 18478–18483, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411680112, 2014. a
Download
Short summary
We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.