Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
Research article
07 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 07 Nov 2023

Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations

Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis

Data sets

MEaSUREs Greenland Ice Sheet Velocity Map from InSAR Data I. Joughin, B. Smith, I. Howat, and T. Scambos

GRACE High-Resolution Trend Mascons - Greenland Ice Sheet (2007-2015) B. Loomis, D. Felikson, T. Sabaka, and B. Medley

Annual Dynamic Ice Thickness Change Rate, Greenland 1993-2017 (v1) B. Csatho, T. Schenk, and D. Felikson

Model code and software

Release v3.0 of greenland-and-antarctica-projection-calibration code repository Denis Felikson

Short summary
We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.