Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Modelling the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, using a 3D ice-flow model
Lander Van Tricht
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Related authors
Lander Van Tricht, Chloë Marie Paice, Oleg Rybak, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 17, 4315–4323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We performed a field campaign to measure the ice thickness of the Grigoriev ice cap (Central Asia). We interpolated the ice thickness data to obtain an ice thickness distribution representing the state of the ice cap in 2021, with a total volume of ca. 0.4 km3. We then compared our results with global ice thickness datasets composed without our local measurements. The main takeaway is that these datasets do not perform well enough yet for ice caps such as the Grigoriev ice cap.
Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed 3D models can be applied for well-studied glaciers, whereas simplified approaches are used for regional/global assessments. We conducted a comparison of six Tien Shan glaciers employing different models and investigated the impact of in-situ measurements. Our results reveal that the choice of mass balance and ice flow model as well as calibration have minimal impact on the projected volume. The initial ice thickness exerts the greatest influence on the future remaining ice volume.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Lander Van Tricht, Philippe Huybrechts, Jonas Van Breedam, Alexander Vanhulle, Kristof Van Oost, and Harry Zekollari
The Cryosphere, 15, 4445–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted innovative research on the use of drones to determine the surface mass balance (SMB) of two glaciers. Considering appropriate spatial scales, we succeeded in determining the SMB in the ablation area with large accuracy. Consequently, we are convinced that our method and the use of drones to monitor the mass balance of a glacier’s ablation area can be an add-on to stake measurements in order to obtain a broader picture of the heterogeneity of the SMB of glaciers.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 2551–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the different boundary conditions to allow ice sheet growth and ice sheet decline of the Antarctic ice sheet when it appeared ∼38–34 Myr ago. The thresholds for ice sheet growth and decline differ because of the different climatological conditions above an ice sheet (higher elevation and higher albedo) compared to a bare topography. We found that the ice–albedo feedback and the isostasy feedback respectively ease and delay the transition from a deglacial to glacial state.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Lander Van Tricht, Chloë Marie Paice, Oleg Rybak, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 17, 4315–4323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We performed a field campaign to measure the ice thickness of the Grigoriev ice cap (Central Asia). We interpolated the ice thickness data to obtain an ice thickness distribution representing the state of the ice cap in 2021, with a total volume of ca. 0.4 km3. We then compared our results with global ice thickness datasets composed without our local measurements. The main takeaway is that these datasets do not perform well enough yet for ice caps such as the Grigoriev ice cap.
Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed 3D models can be applied for well-studied glaciers, whereas simplified approaches are used for regional/global assessments. We conducted a comparison of six Tien Shan glaciers employing different models and investigated the impact of in-situ measurements. Our results reveal that the choice of mass balance and ice flow model as well as calibration have minimal impact on the projected volume. The initial ice thickness exerts the greatest influence on the future remaining ice volume.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets are an important component of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere through albedo variations and changes in the surface height. On very long timescales, it is impossible to directly couple ice sheet models with climate models and other techniques have to be used. Here we present a novel coupling method between ice sheets and the atmosphere by making use of an emulator to simulate ice sheet–climate interactions for several million years.
Lander Van Tricht, Philippe Huybrechts, Jonas Van Breedam, Alexander Vanhulle, Kristof Van Oost, and Harry Zekollari
The Cryosphere, 15, 4445–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted innovative research on the use of drones to determine the surface mass balance (SMB) of two glaciers. Considering appropriate spatial scales, we succeeded in determining the SMB in the ablation area with large accuracy. Consequently, we are convinced that our method and the use of drones to monitor the mass balance of a glacier’s ablation area can be an add-on to stake measurements in order to obtain a broader picture of the heterogeneity of the SMB of glaciers.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Thomas M. Jordan, Christopher N. Williams, Dustin M. Schroeder, Yasmina M. Martos, Michael A. Cooper, Martin J. Siegert, John D. Paden, Philippe Huybrechts, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 12, 2831–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2831-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here, via analysis of radio-echo sounding data, we place a new observational constraint upon the basal water distribution beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. In addition to the outlet glaciers, we demonstrate widespread water storage in the northern and eastern ice-sheet interior, a notable feature being a "corridor" of basal water extending from NorthGRIP to Petermann Glacier. The basal water distribution and its relationship with basal temperature provides a new constraint for numerical models.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Harry Zekollari, Philippe Huybrechts, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 805–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study the dynamics of the world’s northernmost ice cap are investigated with a 3-D ice flow model. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions
an ice cap similar to the observed one is obtained, with comparable geometry and surface velocities. The southern part of the ice cap is very unstable,
and under early-21st-century climatic conditions this part of the ice cap fully disappears. In a projected warmer and wetter climate the ice cap will at
first steepen, before eventually disappearing.
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 2195–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution during the Last Interglacial (~ 130 to 115 kyr BP), the most recent warm period in Earth’s history. Our Earth system model includes components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Our simulation is in good agreement with available data reconstructions and gives important insights into the dominant mechanisms that caused ice sheet changes in the past.
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have modelled the climate evolution from 135 to 120 kyr BP with an Earth system model to study the onset of the Last Interglacial warm period. Ice sheet changes and associated freshwater fluxes in both hemispheres constitute an important forcing in the simulations. Freshwater fluxes from the melting Antarctic ice sheet are found to lead to an oceanic cold event in the Southern Ocean as evidenced in some ocean sediment cores, which may be used to constrain the timing of ice sheet retreat.
T. M. Jordan, J. L. Bamber, C. N. Williams, J. D. Paden, M. J. Siegert, P. Huybrechts, O. Gagliardini, and F. Gillet-Chaulet
The Cryosphere, 10, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Ice penetrating radar enables determination of the basal properties of ice sheets. Existing algorithms assume stationarity in the attenuation rate, which is not justifiable at an ice sheet scale. We introduce the first ice-sheet-wide algorithm for radar attenuation that incorporates spatial variability, using the temperature field from a numerical model as an initial guess. The study is a step toward ice-sheet-wide data products for basal properties and evaluation of model temperature fields.
A. E. Jowett, E. Hanna, F. Ng, P. Huybrechts, and I. Janssens
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5327-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
J. J. Fürst, H. Goelzer, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 9, 1039–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015, 2015
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
C. L. Vernon, J. L. Bamber, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 7, 599–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, 2013
J. J. Fürst, H. Goelzer, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 7, 183–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Glaciers | Subject: Glaciers
Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations
Linking Glacier Retreat with Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau through Satellite Remote Sensing
A quasi-one-dimensional ice mélange flow model based on continuum descriptions of granular materials
Thinning and surface mass balance patterns of two neighbouring debris-covered glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Everest South Col Glacier did not thin during the period 1984–2017
Meltwater runoff and glacier mass balance in the high Arctic: 1991–2022 simulations for Svalbard
Impact of tides on calving patterns at Kronebreen, Svalbard – insights from three-dimensional ice dynamical modelling
Brief communication: Glacier mapping and change estimation using very high-resolution declassified Hexagon KH-9 panoramic stereo imagery (1971–1984)
Brief communication: Estimating the ice thickness of the Müller Ice Cap to support selection of a drill site
Glacier geometry and flow speed determine how Arctic marine-terminating glaciers respond to lubricated beds
A regionally resolved inventory of High Mountain Asia surge-type glaciers, derived from a multi-factor remote sensing approach
Towards ice-thickness inversion: an evaluation of global digital elevation models (DEMs) in the glacierized Tibetan Plateau
Record summer rains in 2019 led to massive loss of surface and cave ice in SE Europe
Evolution of the firn pack of Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon: meltwater effects, densification, and the development of a perennial firn aquifer
Full crystallographic orientation (c and a axes) of warm, coarse-grained ice in a shear-dominated setting: a case study, Storglaciären, Sweden
Contribution of calving to frontal ablation quantified from seismic and hydroacoustic observations calibrated with lidar volume measurements
Brief communication: Updated GAMDAM glacier inventory over high-mountain Asia
Ice cliff contribution to the tongue-wide ablation of Changri Nup Glacier, Nepal, central Himalaya
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 18, 5045–5066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Fumeng Zhao, Wenping Gong, Silvia Bianchini, and Zhongkang Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1083, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat patterns and climatic drivers on the Tibetan Plateau are uncertain at finer resolutions. This study introduces a new glacier mapping method covering 1988 to 2022, with downscaled air temperature and precipitation data. It quantifies the impacts of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation on retreat. Results show rapid and varied retreat, with annual temperature influencing retreat in the west and spring precipitation in the northwest.
Jason M. Amundson, Alexander A. Robel, Justin C. Burton, and Kavinda Nissanka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-297, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Some fjords contain dense packs of icebergs referred to as ice mélange. Ice mélange can affect the stability of marine-terminating glaciers by resisting the calving of new icebergs and by modifying fjord currents and water properties. We have developed the first numerical model of ice mélange that captures its granular nature and that is suitable for long time-scale simulations. The model is capable of explaining why some glaciers are more strongly influenced by ice mélange than others.
Chuanxi Zhao, Wei Yang, Evan Miles, Matthew Westoby, Marin Kneib, Yongjie Wang, Zhen He, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 17, 3895–3913, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper quantifies the thinning and surface mass balance of two neighbouring debris-covered glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during different seasons, based on high spatio-temporal resolution UAV-derived (unpiloted aerial
vehicle) data and in situ observations. Through a comparison approach and high-precision results, we identify that the glacier dynamic and debris thickness are strongly related to the future fate of the debris-covered glaciers in this region.
Fanny Brun, Owen King, Marion Réveillet, Charles Amory, Anton Planchot, Etienne Berthier, Amaury Dehecq, Tobias Bolch, Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Marie Dumont, Christoph Mayer, Silvan Leinss, Romain Hugonnet, and Patrick Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 17, 3251–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The South Col Glacier is a small body of ice and snow located on the southern ridge of Mt. Everest. A recent study proposed that South Col Glacier is rapidly losing mass. In this study, we examined the glacier thickness change for the period 1984–2017 and found no thickness change. To reconcile these results, we investigate wind erosion and surface energy and mass balance and find that melt is unlikely a dominant process, contrary to previous findings.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Erin Emily Thomas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2941–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice over a year) and runoff on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model. We find a small overall loss of mass over the simulation period of −0.08 m yr−1 but with no statistically significant trend. The average runoff was found to be 41 Gt yr−1, with a significant increasing trend of 6.3 Gt per decade.
Felicity A. Holmes, Eef van Dongen, Riko Noormets, Michał Pętlicki, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 1853–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers which end in bodies of water can lose mass through melting below the waterline, as well as by the breaking off of icebergs. We use a numerical model to simulate the breaking off of icebergs at Kronebreen, a glacier in Svalbard, and find that both melting below the waterline and tides are important for iceberg production. In addition, we compare the modelled glacier front to observations and show that melting below the waterline can lead to undercuts of up to around 25 m.
Sajid Ghuffar, Owen King, Grégoire Guillet, Ewelina Rupnik, and Tobias Bolch
The Cryosphere, 17, 1299–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1299-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The panoramic cameras (PCs) on board Hexagon KH-9 satellite missions from 1971–1984 captured very high-resolution stereo imagery with up to 60 cm spatial resolution. This study explores the potential of this imagery for glacier mapping and change estimation. The high resolution of KH-9PC leads to higher-quality DEMs which better resolve the accumulation region of glaciers in comparison to the KH-9 mapping camera, and KH-9PC imagery can be useful in several Earth observation applications.
Ann-Sofie Priergaard Zinck and Aslak Grinsted
The Cryosphere, 16, 1399–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Müller Ice Cap will soon set the scene for a new drilling project. To obtain an ice core with stratified layers and a good time resolution, thickness estimates are necessary for the planning. Here we present a new and fast method of estimating ice thicknesses from sparse data and compare it to an existing ice flow model. We find that the new semi-empirical method is insensitive to mass balance, is computationally fast, and provides good fits when compared to radar measurements.
Whyjay Zheng
The Cryosphere, 16, 1431–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A glacier can speed up when surface water reaches the glacier's bottom via crevasses and reduces sliding friction. This paper builds up a physical model and finds that thick and fast-flowing glaciers are sensitive to this friction disruption. The data from Greenland and Austfonna (Svalbard) glaciers over 20 years support the model prediction. To estimate the projected sea-level rise better, these sensitive glaciers should be frequently monitored for potential future instabilities.
Gregoire Guillet, Owen King, Mingyang Lv, Sajid Ghuffar, Douglas Benn, Duncan Quincey, and Tobias Bolch
The Cryosphere, 16, 603–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Surging glaciers show cyclical changes in flow behavior – between slow and fast flow – and can have drastic impacts on settlements in their vicinity.
One of the clusters of surging glaciers worldwide is High Mountain Asia (HMA).
We present an inventory of surging glaciers in HMA, identified from satellite imagery. We show that the number of surging glaciers was underestimated and that they represent 20 % of the area covered by glaciers in HMA, before discussing new physics for glacier surges.
Wenfeng Chen, Tandong Yao, Guoqing Zhang, Fei Li, Guoxiong Zheng, Yushan Zhou, and Fenglin Xu
The Cryosphere, 16, 197–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A digital elevation model (DEM) is a prerequisite for estimating regional glacier thickness. Our study first compared six widely used global DEMs over the glacierized Tibetan Plateau by using ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry data. Our results show that NASADEM had the best accuracy. We conclude that NASADEM would be the best choice for ice-thickness estimation over the Tibetan Plateau through an intercomparison of four ice-thickness inversion models.
Aurel Perşoiu, Nenad Buzjak, Alexandru Onaca, Christos Pennos, Yorgos Sotiriadis, Monica Ionita, Stavros Zachariadis, Michael Styllas, Jure Kosutnik, Alexandru Hegyi, and Valerija Butorac
The Cryosphere, 15, 2383–2399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme precipitation events in summer 2019 led to catastrophic loss of cave and surface ice in SE Europe at levels unprecedented during the last century. The projected continuous warming and increase in precipitation extremes could pose an additional threat to glaciers in southern Europe, resulting in a potentially ice-free SE Europe by the middle of the next decade (2035 CE).
Naomi E. Ochwat, Shawn J. Marshall, Brian J. Moorman, Alison S. Criscitiello, and Luke Copland
The Cryosphere, 15, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2021-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In May 2018 we drilled into Kaskawulsh Glacier to study how it is being affected by climate warming and used models to investigate the evolution of the firn since the 1960s. We found that the accumulation zone has experienced increased melting that has refrozen as ice layers and has formed a perennial firn aquifer. These results better inform climate-induced changes on northern glaciers and variables to take into account when estimating glacier mass change using remote-sensing methods.
Morgan E. Monz, Peter J. Hudleston, David J. Prior, Zachary Michels, Sheng Fan, Marianne Negrini, Pat J. Langhorne, and Chao Qi
The Cryosphere, 15, 303–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-303-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present full crystallographic orientations of warm, coarse-grained ice deformed in a shear setting, enabling better characterization of how crystals in glacial ice preferentially align as ice flows. A commonly noted c-axis pattern, with several favored orientations, may result from bias due to overcounting large crystals with complex 3D shapes. A new sample preparation method effectively increases the sample size and reduces bias, resulting in a simpler pattern consistent with the ice flow.
Andreas Köhler, Michał Pętlicki, Pierre-Marie Lefeuvre, Giuseppa Buscaino, Christopher Nuth, and Christian Weidle
The Cryosphere, 13, 3117–3137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3117-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Ice loss at the front of glaciers can be observed with high temporal resolution using seismometers. We combine seismic and underwater sound measurements of iceberg calving at Kronebreen, a glacier in Svalbard, with laser scanning of the glacier front. We develop a method to determine calving ice loss directly from seismic and underwater calving signals. This allowed us to quantify the contribution of calving to the total ice loss at the glacier front, which also includes underwater melting.
Akiko Sakai
The Cryosphere, 13, 2043–2049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2043-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2043-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Glacier Area Mapping for Discharge from the Asian Mountains (GAMDAM) glacier inventory was updated to revise the underestimated glacier area in the first version. The total number and area of glaciers are 134 770 and 100 693 ± 11 790 km2 from 453 Landsat images, which were carefully selected for the period from 1990 to 2010, to avoid mountain shadow, cloud cover, and seasonal snow cover.
Fanny Brun, Patrick Wagnon, Etienne Berthier, Joseph M. Shea, Walter W. Immerzeel, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Christian Vincent, Camille Reverchon, Dibas Shrestha, and Yves Arnaud
The Cryosphere, 12, 3439–3457, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3439-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
On debris-covered glaciers, steep ice cliffs experience dramatically enhanced melt compared with the surrounding debris-covered ice. Using field measurements, UAV data and submetre satellite imagery, we estimate the cliff contribution to 2 years of ablation on a debris-covered tongue in Nepal, carefully taking into account ice dynamics. While they occupy only 7 to 8 % of the tongue surface, ice cliffs contributed to 23 to 24 % of the total tongue ablation.
Cited articles
Aizen, V. B., Maksimov, N. V., and Solodov, P. A.: Dynamiealednika Grolubina za poslednie 20 let [Dynamic of the Golubina Glacier for the 20 last years], Trudi Central'no-Asiatskogo Regional'nogo Naucho-Issledovatel'skogo Instituta [Works of Central Asian Regional Institute of Science Investigations, Tashkent], 91, 172, 1983 (in Russian).
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Melack, J. M.: Climate, Snow Cover, Glaciers, and Runoff in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 31, 1113–1129, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb03426.x, 1995.
Aizen, V. B., Kuzmichenok, V., Surazakov, A., and Aizen, E. M.: Glacier changes in the central and northern Tien Shan during the last 140 years based on surface and remote-sensing data, Ann. Glaciol., 43, 202–213, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756406781812465, 2006.
Aizen, V. B., Kuzmichenok, V. A., Surazakov, A. B., and Aizen, E. M.: Glacier Changes in the Tien Shan as Determined from Topographic and Remotely Sensed Data, Global Planet. Change, 56, 328–340, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.016, 2007.
Arkhipov, S. M., Mikhalenko, V. N., Kunakhovich, M. G., Dikikh, A. N., and Nagornov, O. V.: Termich eskii rezhim, usloviia l'doobrazovaniia i akkumulyatsiia na ladnike Grigor'eva (Tyan'-Shan') v 1962–2001 gg. [Thermal regime, ice types and accumulation in Grigoriev Glacier, Tien Shan, 1962–2001], Mater. Glyatsiol. Issled., 96, 77–83, 2004 (in Russian with English summary).
Azisov, E., Hoelzle, M., Vorogushyn, S., Saks, T., Usubaliev, R., Esenaman uulu, M., and Barandun, M.: Reconstructed Centennial Mass Balance Change for Golubin Glacier, Northern Tien Shan, Atmosphere, 13, 954, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060954, 2022.
Barandun, M. and Pohl, E.: Central Asia's spatiotemporal glacier response ambiguity due to data inconsistencies and regional simplifications, The Cryosphere, 17, 1343–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1343-2023, 2023.
Barandun, M., Huss, M., Usubaliev, R., Azisov, E., Berthier, E., Kääb, A., Bolch, T., and Hoelzle, M.: Multi-decadal mass balance series of three Kyrgyz glaciers inferred from modelling constrained with repeated snow line observations, The Cryosphere, 12, 1899–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1899-2018, 2018.
Barandun, M., Pohl, E., Naegeli, K., McNabb, R., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Saks, T., and Hoelzle, M.: Hot spots of glacier mass balance variability in Central Asia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092084, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092084, 2021.
Blomdin, R., Stroeven, A. P., Harbor, J. M., Lifton, N. A., Heyman, J., Gribenski, N., Petrakov, D. A., Caffee, M. W., Ivanov, M. N., Hättestrand, C., Rogozhina, I., and Usubaliev R.: Evaluating the timing of former glacier expansions in the Tian Shan: A key step towards robust spatial correlations, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 153, 78–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.07.029, 2016.
Bolch, T.: Glacier area and mass changes since 1964 in the Ala Archa Valley, Kyrgyz Ala-Too, northern Tien Shan, Led i Sneg, 129, 28–39, https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-117189, 2015,
Braun, L. N. and Hagg, W.: Present and future impact of snow cover and glaciers on runoff from mountain regions – comparison between Alps and Tien Shan, in: IHP-HWRP-Berichte, 8, 36–43, https://doi.org/10.5282/ubm/epub.13807, 2009.
Brun, F., Berthier, E., Wagnon, P., Kääb, A., and Treichler, D.: A spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances from 2000 to 2016, Nat. Geosci., 10, 668–673, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2999, 2017.
Carrivick, J. L., Tweed, F. S., Sutherland, J. L., and Mallalieu, J.: Toward Numerical Modeling of Interactions between Ice-Marginal Proglacial Lakes and Glaciers, Front. Earth Sci., 8, 577068, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.577068, 2020.
Che, Y., Zhang, M., Li, Z., Wei, Y., Nan, Z., Li, H., Wang, S., and Su, B.: Energy balance model of mass balance and its sensitivity to meteorological variability on Urumqi River Glacier No.1 in the Chinese Tien Shan, Sci. Rep., 9, 13958, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50398-4, 2019.
Christian, J. E., Koutnik, M., and Roe, G.: Committed retreat: Controls on glacier disequilibrium in a warming climate, J. Glaciol., 64, 675–688, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.57, 2018.
Compagno, L., Zekollari, H., Huss, M., and Farinotti, D.: Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland, J. Glaciol., 67, 727–743, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.24, 2021.
Compagno, L., Huss, M., Zekollari, H., and Farinotti, D.: Future growth and decline of high mountain Asia's ice-dammed lakes and associated risk, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 191, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00520-8, 2022.
de Kok, R. J., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Bonekamp, P. N. J., and Immerzeel, W. W.: Towards understanding the pattern of glacier mass balances in High Mountain Asia using regional climatic modelling, The Cryosphere, 14, 3215–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3215-2020, 2020.
Dikikh, A. N.: Temperature regime of flat-top glaciers (using Grigoriev as an Example) – Glyatsiol, Issledovaniya na Tyan-Shane, Frunze, N. 11, 32–35, 1965 (in Russian).
Dyurgerov, M. B.: Glacier mass balance and regime: data of measurements and analysis, University of Colorado Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper 55, Boulder, http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/occ_papers.html (last access: 17 October 2022), 2002.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Farinotti, D., Longuevergne, L., Moholdt, G., Duethmann, D., Mölg, T., Bolch, T., and Vorogushyn, S.: Güntner, A. Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years, Nat. Geosci., 8, 716–722, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2513, 2015.
Fujita, K.: Influence of precipitation seasonality on glacier mass balance and its sensitivity to climate change, Ann. Glaciol., 48, 88–92, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408784700824, 2008.
Fujita, K., Takeuchi, N., Nikitin, S. A., Surazakov, A. B., Okamoto, S., Aizen, V. B., and Kubota, J.: Favorable climatic regime for maintaining the present-day geometry of the Gregoriev Glacier, Inner Tien Shan, The Cryosphere, 5, 539–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-539-2011, 2011.
Furian, W., Maussion, F., and Schneider, C.: Projected 21st-century glacial lake evolution in High Mountain Asia, Front. Earth Sci., 10, 821798, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.821798, 2022.
Fürst, J. J., Rybak, O., Goelzer, H., De Smedt, B., de Groen, P., and Huybrechts, P.: Improved convergence and stability properties in a three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1133-2011, 2011.
Fürst, J. J., Goelzer, H., and Huybrechts, P.: Effect of higher-order stress gradients on the centennial mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 7, 183–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, 2013.
Gan, R., Luo, L., Zuo, Q., and Sun, L.: Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia, J. Hydrol., 523, 240–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.057, 2015.
Goerlich, F., Bolch, T., Mukherjee, K., and Pieczonka, T.: Glacier Mass Loss during the 1960s and 1970s in the Ak-Shirak Range (Kyrgyzstan) from Multiple Stereoscopic Corona and Hexagon Imagery, Remote Sensing, 9, 275, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9030275, 2017.
Hagg, W., Braun, L. N., Weber, M., and Becht, M.: Runoff modelling in glacierized central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate, Hydrol. Res., 37, 93–105, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2006.0008, 2006.
Hausfather, Z., Marvel, K., Schmidt, G. A., Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and Zelinka, M.: Climate simulations: Recognize the “hot model” problem, Nature, 605, 26–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2, 2022.
Hoelzle, M., Azisov, E., Barandun, M., Huss, M., Farinotti, D., Gafurov, A., Hagg, W., Kenzhebaev, R., Kronenberg, M., Machguth, H., Merkushkin, A., Moldobekov, B., Petrov, M., Saks, T., Salzmann, N., Schöne, T., Tarasov, Y., Usubaliev, R., Vorogushyn, S., Yakovlev, A., and Zemp, M.: Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia, Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 6, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, 2017.
Hoelzle, M., Barandun, M., Bolch, T., Fiddes, J., Gafurov, A., Muccione, V., Saks, T., and Shahgedanova, M.: The status and role of the alpine cryosphere in Central Asia, in: The Aral Sea Basin, Taylor & Francis, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429436475-8, 2019.
Hugonnet, R., McNabb, R., Berthier, E., Menounos, B., Nuth, C., Girod, L., Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Dussaillant, I., Brun, F., and Kääb, A.: Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century, Nature, 592, 726–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z, 2021.
Huss, M. and Hock, R: Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 135–140, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x, 2018.
Hutter, K.: Theoretical glaciology, vol. 1, Reidel Publ. Co, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-1167-4_1, 1983.
Huybrechts, P.: A 3-D model for the Antarctic ice sheet: a sensitivity study on the glacial-interglacial contrast, Clim. Dynam., 5, 79–92, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00207423, 1990.
Immerzeel, W. W., Van Beek, L. P., and Bierkens, M. F.: Climate change will affect the Asian water towers, Science, 328, 1382–1385, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188, 2010.
Jóhannesson, T., Raymond, C., and Waddington, E.: Time–Scale for Adjustment of Glaciers to Changes in Mass Balance, J. Glaciol., 35, 355–369, https://doi.org/10.3189/S002214300000928X, 1989.
Jouvet, G., Huss, M., Funk, M., and Blatter, H.: Modelling the retreat of Grosser Aletschgletscher, Switzerland, in a changing climate, J. Glaciol., 57, 1033–1045, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311798843359, 2011.
Kraaijenbrink, P., Bierkens, M., Lutz, A., and Immerzeel W. W.: Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's glaciers, Nature, 549, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878, 2017.
Kronenberg, M., Barandun, M., Hoelzle, M., Huss, M., Farinotti, D., Azisov, E., Usubaliev, R., Gafurov, A., Petrakov, D., and Kääb, A.: Mass-balance reconstruction for Glacier No. 354, Tien Shan, from 2003 to 2014, Ann. Glaciol., 57, 92–102, https://doi.org/10.3189/2016AoG71A032, 2016.
Kutuzov, S. and Shahgedanova, M.: Glacier retreat and climatic variability in the eastern Terskey–Alatoo, inner Tien Shan between the middle of the 19th century and beginning of the 21st century, Global Planet. Change, 69, 59–70, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.07.001, 2009.
Li, Y., Lu, X., and Li, Y.: A Review on the Little Ice Age and Factors to Glacier Changes in the Tian Shan, Central Asia, in: Glaciers Evolution in a Changing World, IntechOpen, Vienna, Austria, https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.70044, 2017.
Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Anderson, B., Bliss, A., Champollion, N., Fujita, K., Huss, M., Immerzeel, W., Kraaijenbrink, P., Malles, J.-H., Maussion, F., Radíc, V., Rounce, D. R., Sakai, A., Shannon, S., van de Wal, R., and Zekollari, H.: Partitioning the uncertainty of ensemble projections of global glacier mass change, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001470, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470, 2020.
Mikhalenko, V. N.: Osobennosti massoobmena lednikov ploskikh vershin vnutrennego Tyan'-Shanya [Peculiarities of the mass exchange of flat summit glaciers of interior Tyan'-Shan'], Materialy Glyatsiologicheskikh Issledovaniy, 65, 86–92, 1989 (in Russian).
Narama, C., Daiyrov, M., Duishonakunov, M., Tadono, T., Sato, H., Kääb, A., Ukita, J., and Abdrakhmatov, K.: Large drainages from short-lived glacial lakes in the Teskey Range, Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 983–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-983-2018, 2018.
Pattyn, F.: A new three-dimensional higher-order thermomechanical ice sheet model: Basic sensitivity, ice stream development, and iceflow across subglacial lakes, J. Geophys. Res., 108, B82382, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB002329, 2003.
Petrakov, D. A., Lavrientiev, I. I., Kovalenko, N. V., and Usubaliev, R. A.: Ice thickness, volume and modern change of the Sary-Tor Glacier area (Ak-Shyirak Massif, Inner Tian Shan), Earth's Cryosphere, 18, 91–100, 2014.
Pieczonka, T. and Bolch, T.: Region-wide Glacier Mass Budgets and Area Changes for the Central Tien Shan between ∼ 1975 and 1999 Using Hexagon KH-9 Imagery, Global Planet. Change, 128, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.014, 2015.
Pritchard, H. D.: Asia's shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress, Nature, 569, 649–654, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1240-1, 2019.
Rana, A., Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E. Strandberg, G., Kupiainen, M., Hansson, U., and Kolax, M.: Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia, Clim. Dynam., 54, 2883–2901, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05146-0, 2020.
RGI Consortium: Randolph Glacier Inventory – A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines, Version 6, NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center Boulder, Colorado USA [data set], https://doi.org/10.7265/4m1f-gd79, 2017.
Rounce, D. R., Hock, R., and Shean, D. E.: Glacier Mass Change in High Mountain Asia Through 2100 Using the Open-Source Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM), Front. Earth Sci., 7, 331, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00331, 2020.
Satylkanov, R.: Ablation of Ice and Snow of Kara-Batkak Glacier and its Impact on River Flow, Journal of Climate Change, 4, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.3233/jcc-180009, 2018.
Savoskul, O. S. and Solomina, O. N.: Late-Holocene glacier variations in the frontal and inner ranges of Tian Shan, central Asia, Holocene, 6, 25–35, https://doi.org/10.1177/095968369600600104, 1996.
Shahgedanova, M., Afzal, M., Hagg, W., Kapitsa, V., Kasatkin, N., Mayr, E., Rybak, O., Saidaliyeva, Z., Severskiy, I., Usmanova, Z., Wade, A., Yaitskaya, N., and Zhumabayev, D.: Emptying Water Towers? Impacts of Future Climate and Glacier Change on River Discharge in the Northern Tien Shan, Central Asia, Water, 12, 627, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030627, 2020.
Shean, D.E., Bhushan, S., Montesano, P., Rounce, D. R., Arendt, A., and Osmanoglu, B.: A systematic, regional assessment of high mountain Asia glacier mass balance, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 363, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00363, 2020.
Solomina, O., Barry, R., and Bodnya, M.: The Retreat of Tien Shan Glaciers (Kyrgyzstan) since the Little Ice Age Estimated from Aerial Photographs, Lichenometric and Historical Data, Geogr. Ann. A, 86, 205–215, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0435-3676.2004.00225.x, 2004.
Solomina, O., Maximova, O., and Cook, E.: Picea Schrenkiana Ring Width and Density at the Upper and Lower Tree Limits in the Tien Shan Mts (Kyrgyz Republic) as a Source of Paleoclimatic Information, Geogr. Environ. Sustain., 7, 66–79, https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2014-7-1-66-79, 2014.
Sorg, A., Bolch, T., Stoffel, M., Solomina, O., and Beniston, M.: Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia), Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 725–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1592, 2012.
Takeuchi, N., Fujita, K., Aizen, V. B., Narama, C., Yokoyama, Y., Okamoto, S., Naoki, K., and Kubota, J.: The disappearance of glaciers in the Tien Shan Mountains in Central Asia at the end of Pleistocene, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 103, 26–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.006, 2014.
Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M., Lin, P. N., Yao, T., Dyurgerov, M., and Dai, J.: Recent warming: ice core evidence from tropical ice cores with emphasis on Central Asia, Global Planet. Change, 7, 145–156, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(93)90046-Q, 1993.
Van Tricht, L.: LanderVT/Modelling_glaciers_TienShan: Modelling_glaciers_TienShan, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8425516, 2023.
Van Tricht, L. and Huybrechts, P.: Thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier in the inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022.
Van Tricht, L., Huybrechts, P., Van Breedam, J., Fürst, J., Rybak, O., Satylkanov, R., Ermenbaiev B., Popovnin V., Neyns, R., Paice C. M., and Malz, P.: Measuring and inferring the ice thickness distribution of four glaciers in the Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, J. Glaciol., 67, 269–286, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.104, 2021a.
Van Tricht, L., Paice, C. M., Rybak, O., Satylkanov, R., Popovnin, V., Solomina, O., and Huybrechts, P.: Reconstruction of the Historical (1750–2020) Mass Balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor Glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 734802, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.734802, 2021b.
Van Tricht, L., Huybrechts, P., Van Breedam, J., Vanhulle, A., Van Oost, K., and Zekollari, H.: Estimating surface mass balance patterns from unoccupied aerial vehicle measurements in the ablation area of the Morteratsch–Pers glacier complex (Switzerland), The Cryosphere, 15, 4445–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, 2021c.
Van Tricht, L., Paice, C. M., Rybak, O., and Huybrechts, P.: Brief communication: Measuring and modelling the ice thickness of the Grigoriev ice cap (Kyrgyzstan) and comparison with global datasets, The Cryosphere, 17, 4315–4323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, 2023.
Venukov, M. I.: Ocherki Zailiiskogo kraya i Prichuiskoi strain [Essays of Zailiiski region and Prichuiskii country], Izv. Russ. Geograf. Obshch., Rossiiskaya Akademiya Nauk, 4, 35–61, 1861.
Willis, I. C., Rippin, D. M., and Kohler, J.: Thermal regime changes of the polythermal Midre Lovénbreen, Svalbard. In The Dynamics and Mass Budget of Arctic Glaciers (Extended Abstracts), Workshop and GLACIODYN (IPY) Meeting, 15–18 January 2007, Pontresina, Italy, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University (IMAU), Utrecht, 130–133, 2007.
Zekollari, H. and Huybrechts, P.: On the climate–geometry imbalance, response time and volume–area scaling of an alpine glacier: insights from a 3-D flow model applied to Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, Ann. Glaciol., 56, 51–62, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG70A921, 2015.
Zekollari, H., Huybrechts, P., Fürst, J. J., Rybak, O., and Eisen, O.: Calibration of a higher-order 3-D ice-flow model of the Morteratsch glacier complex, Engadin, Switzerland, Ann. Glaciol., 54, 343–351, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013AoG63A434, 2013.
Zekollari, H., Fürst, J., and Huybrechts, P.: Modelling the evolution of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since the Little Ice Age and into the future, J. Glaciol., 60, 1155–1168, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG14J053, 2014.
Zekollari, H., Huybrechts, P., Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland), The Cryosphere, 11, 805–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, 2017.
Short summary
We modelled the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, with a 3D ice-flow model under the newest climate scenarios. We show that in all scenarios the ice masses retreat significantly but with large differences. It is highlighted that, because the main precipitation occurs in spring and summer, the ice masses respond to climate change with an accelerating retreat. In all scenarios, the total runoff peaks before 2050, with a (drastic) decrease afterwards.
We modelled the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central...