Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023
Research article
 | 
25 Oct 2023
Research article |  | 25 Oct 2023

Modelling the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, using a 3D ice-flow model

Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts

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Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Cited articles

Aizen, V. B., Maksimov, N. V., and Solodov, P. A.: Dynamiealednika Grolubina za poslednie 20 let [Dynamic of the Golubina Glacier for the 20 last years], Trudi Central'no-Asiatskogo Regional'nogo Naucho-Issledovatel'skogo Instituta [Works of Central Asian Regional Institute of Science Investigations, Tashkent], 91, 172, 1983 (in Russian). 
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Melack, J. M.: Climate, Snow Cover, Glaciers, and Runoff in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 31, 1113–1129, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb03426.x, 1995. 
Aizen, V. B., Kuzmichenok, V., Surazakov, A., and Aizen, E. M.: Glacier changes in the central and northern Tien Shan during the last 140 years based on surface and remote-sensing data, Ann. Glaciol., 43, 202–213, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756406781812465, 2006. 
Aizen, V. B., Kuzmichenok, V. A., Surazakov, A. B., and Aizen, E. M.: Glacier Changes in the Tien Shan as Determined from Topographic and Remotely Sensed Data, Global Planet. Change, 56, 328–340, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.016, 2007. 
Arkhipov, S. M., Mikhalenko, V. N., Kunakhovich, M. G., Dikikh, A. N., and Nagornov, O. V.: Termich eskii rezhim, usloviia l'doobrazovaniia i akkumulyatsiia na ladnike Grigor'eva (Tyan'-Shan') v 1962–2001 gg. [Thermal regime, ice types and accumulation in Grigoriev Glacier, Tien Shan, 1962–2001], Mater. Glyatsiol. Issled., 96, 77–83, 2004 (in Russian with English summary). 
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Short summary
We modelled the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, with a 3D ice-flow model under the newest climate scenarios. We show that in all scenarios the ice masses retreat significantly but with large differences. It is highlighted that, because the main precipitation occurs in spring and summer, the ice masses respond to climate change with an accelerating retreat. In all scenarios, the total runoff peaks before 2050, with a (drastic) decrease afterwards.