Modelling the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, using a 3D ice-flow model

Van Tricht, Lander; Huybrechts, Philippe

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023

Articles | Volume 17, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 10

Research article

|

25 Oct 2023

Research article |

| 25 Oct 2023

Modelling the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, using a 3D ice-flow model

Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts

Data sets

LanderVT/Modelling_glaciers_TienShan: Modelling_glaciers_TienShan Lander Van Tricht https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8425516

Short summary

We modelled the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, with a 3D ice-flow model under the newest climate scenarios. We show that in all scenarios the ice masses retreat significantly but with large differences. It is highlighted that, because the main precipitation occurs in spring and summer, the ice masses respond to climate change with an accelerating retreat. In all scenarios, the total runoff peaks before 2050, with a (drastic) decrease afterwards.