Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023
Research article
 | 
25 Oct 2023
Research article |  | 25 Oct 2023

Modelling the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, using a 3D ice-flow model

Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts

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Latest update: 03 Mar 2024
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Short summary
We modelled the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, with a 3D ice-flow model under the newest climate scenarios. We show that in all scenarios the ice masses retreat significantly but with large differences. It is highlighted that, because the main precipitation occurs in spring and summer, the ice masses respond to climate change with an accelerating retreat. In all scenarios, the total runoff peaks before 2050, with a (drastic) decrease afterwards.