Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 05 Sep 2023
| 05 Sep 2023
Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia
René R. Wijngaard
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
now at: Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht,
Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Adam R. Herrington
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Gunter R. Leguy
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
Climate Theory Lab, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei
University, Seoul, South Korea
Related authors
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
René Reijer Wijngaard, Hester Biemans, Arthur Friedrich Lutz, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Philippus Wester, and Walter Willem Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6297–6321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic developments on the future water gap for the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins until the end of the 21st century. The results show that despite projected increases in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap, indicating that socio-economic changes will be the key driver in the evolving water gap.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Robert A. Tomas, Nathan M. Urban, Ian Miller, Harriet Morgan, and Eric J. Steig
Clim. Past, 20, 2349–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Studying climate conditions near the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during Earth’s past warm periods informs us about how global warming may influence AIS ice loss. Using a global climate model, we investigate climate conditions near the AIS during the Last Interglacial (129 to 116 kyr ago), a period with warmer global temperatures and higher sea level than today. We identify the orbital and freshwater forcings that could cause ice loss and probe the mechanisms that lead to warmer climate conditions.
Annelise Waling, Adam Herrington, Katharine Duderstadt, Jack Dibb, and Elizabeth Burakowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are channel-shaped features within the atmosphere that carry moisture from the mid-latitudes to the poles, bringing warm temperatures and moisture that can cause melt in the Arctic. We used variable-resolution grids to model ARs around the Greenland ice sheet and compared this output to uniform-resolution grids and reanalysis products. We found that the variable-resolution grids produced ARs and precipitation that were more similar to observation-based products.
Jean-François Lemieux, William H. Lipscomb, Anthony Craig, David A. Bailey, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Philippe Blain, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Mats Bentsen, Frédéric Dupont, David Hebert, and Richard Allard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6703–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-851, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates into an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 meters globally.
William H. Lipscomb, David Behar, and Monica Ainhorn Morrison
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-534, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As communities try to adapt to climate change, they look for “actionable science” that can inform decision-making. There are risks in relying on novel results that are not yet accepted by the science community. We propose a practical criterion for determining which scientific claims are actionable. We show how premature acceptance of sea-level rise predictions can lead to confusion and backtracking, and we suggest best practices for communication between scientists and adaptation planners.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Michele Petrini, Meike Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter Leguy, William Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-154, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate with a numerical model the stability of the Greenland ice-sheet under prolonged sustained warming and ice melt. We show that there is a threshold beyond which the ice-sheet will lose more than 80 % of its mass over tens of thousand of years. The point of no return is reached when the ice-sheet disconnects from a region of high topography in western Greenland. This threshold is determined by the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Xingying Huang, Andrew Gettelman, William C. Skamarock, Peter Hjort Lauritzen, Miles Curry, Adam Herrington, John T. Truesdale, and Michael Duda
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8135–8151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8135-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8135-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the recent development of a state-of-the-art storm-resolving global climate model and investigate how this next-generation model performs for precipitation prediction over the western USA. Results show realistic representations of precipitation with significantly enhanced snowpack over complex terrains. The model evaluation advances the unified modeling of large-scale forcing constraints and realistic fine-scale features to advance multi-scale climate predictions and changes.
Adrian K. Turner, William H. Lipscomb, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Douglas W. Jacobsen, Nicole Jeffery, Darren Engwirda, Todd D. Ringler, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3721–3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the dynamical core of the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a mesh consisting of a Voronoi tessellation with polygonal cells. Such a mesh allows variable mesh resolution in different parts of the domain and the focusing of computational resources in regions of interest. We describe the velocity solver and tracer transport schemes used and examine errors generated by the model in both idealized and realistic test cases and examine the computational efficiency of the model.
Seungmok Paik, Seung-Ki Min, Seok-Woo Son, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-187, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates Earth’s surface climate response to volcanic eruptions at different latitudes. By analyzing last millennium ensemble simulations of a coupled climate model, we have identified physical processes associated with the diverse impacts of volcanic eruption latitudes, focusing on the tropical ocean surface warming and the stratospheric polar vortex intensification. Our results provide important global implications for atmospheric responses to future volcanic aerosols.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Xylar S. Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present numerical features of the Community Ice Sheet Model in representing ocean termini glaciers. Using idealized test cases, we show that applying melt in a partly grounded cell is beneficial, in contrast to recent studies. We confirm that parameterizing partly grounded cells yields accurate ice sheet representation at a grid resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km), allowing ice sheet simulations at a continental scale. The choice of basal friction law also influences the ice flow.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Nathan M. Urban
The Cryosphere, 15, 2683–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures and have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in rise amount and timing remain largely unquantified. To facilitate uncertainty quantification, we use a high-resolution ice sheet model to build, test, and validate an ice sheet emulator and generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years in the future.
William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Raymond Sellevold, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brice Noël, William H. Lipscomb, and Miren Vizcaino
The Cryosphere, 13, 3193–3208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate a downscaling method to calculate ice sheet surface mass balance with global climate models, despite their coarse resolution. We compare it with high-resolution climate modeling. Despite absence of fine-scale simulation of individual energy and mass contributors, the method provides realistic vertical SMB gradients that can be used in forcing of ice sheet models, e.g., for sea level projections. Also, the climate model simulation is improved with the method implemented interactively.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
William H. Lipscomb, Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Gunter R. Leguy, Andrew R. Bennett, Sarah L. Bradley, Katherine J. Evans, Jeremy G. Fyke, Joseph H. Kennedy, Mauro Perego, Douglas M. Ranken, William J. Sacks, Andrew G. Salinger, Lauren J. Vargo, and Patrick H. Worley
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) version 2.1. CISM solves equations for ice flow, heat conduction, surface melting, and other processes such as basal sliding and iceberg calving. It can be used for ice-sheet-only simulations or as the ice sheet component of the Community Earth System Model. Model solutions have been verified for standard test problems. CISM can efficiently simulate the whole Greenland ice sheet, with results that are broadly consistent with observations.
René Reijer Wijngaard, Hester Biemans, Arthur Friedrich Lutz, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Philippus Wester, and Walter Willem Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6297–6321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic developments on the future water gap for the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins until the end of the 21st century. The results show that despite projected increases in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap, indicating that socio-economic changes will be the key driver in the evolving water gap.
Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, William H. Lipscomb, Tong Zhang, Douglas Jacobsen, Irina Tezaur, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond Tuminaro, and Luca Bertagna
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3747–3780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) is a new variable-resolution land ice model that uses unstructured grids on a plane or sphere. MALI is built for Earth system modeling on high-performance computing platforms using existing software libraries. MALI simulates the evolution of ice thickness, velocity, and temperature, and it includes schemes for simulating iceberg calving and the flow of water beneath ice sheets and its effect on ice sliding. The model is demonstrated for the Antarctic ice sheet.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
G. R. Leguy, X. S. Asay-Davis, and W. H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 8, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, 2014
J. G. Fyke, W. J. Sacks, and W. H. Lipscomb
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1183–1195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1183-2014, 2014
S. H. Mernild, W. H. Lipscomb, D. B. Bahr, V. Radić, and M. Zemp
The Cryosphere, 7, 1565–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Glaciers | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Application of a regularised Coulomb sliding law to Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland
Increasing numerical stability of mountain valley glacier simulations: implementation and testing of free-surface stabilization in Elmer/Ice
Quantifying the Buttressing Contribution of Sea Ice to Crane Glacier
A new glacier thickness and bed map for Svalbard
A 3D glacier dynamics–line plume model to estimate the frontal ablation of Hansbreen, Svalbard
Physically-based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf
Reconciling ice dynamics and bed topography with a versatile and fast ice thickness inversion
Modelling the development and decay of cryoconite holes in northwestern Greenland
Thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier in the inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan
Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single-glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia
The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile
Modelling steady states and the transient response of debris-covered glaciers
Twentieth century global glacier mass change: an ensemble-based model reconstruction
Mapping the age of ice of Gauligletscher combining surface radionuclide contamination and ice flow modeling
Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE
Brief communication: Time step dependence (and fixes) in Stokes simulations of calving ice shelves
Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing
Deep learning applied to glacier evolution modelling
Initialization of a global glacier model based on present-day glacier geometry and past climate information: an ensemble approach
Contrasting thinning patterns between lake- and land-terminating glaciers in the Bhutanese Himalaya
Impact of frontal ablation on the ice thickness estimation of marine-terminating glaciers in Alaska
Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model
Buoyant forces promote tidewater glacier iceberg calving through large basal stress concentrations
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1499, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the sea ice was attached to the terminus of the glacier, it could provide a resistive stress against the glacier’s ice-flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the sea ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Ward van Pelt and Thomas Frank
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1525, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard’s glaciers is important for assessing the contribution to sea level rise in a present and future climate. However, direct observations of the glacier bed are scarce. Here, we use an inverse approach and high-resolution surface observations, to infer basal conditions. We present and analyze the new bed and thickness maps, quantify the ice volume (6,800 km3), and compare against radar data and previous studies.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Emily Potter, Nilton Montoya, and Wouter Buytaert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-863, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in the tropics are poorly-observed, making it difficult to predict how they will retreat in the future. Most computer models neglect important processes that control tropical glacier retreat. We combine two existing models to remedy this limitation. Our model replicates observed changes in glacier retreat and shows us where our process understanding limits the accuracy of predictions and which processes are less important than we previously thought, helping to direct future research.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
Yukihiko Onuma, Koji Fujita, Nozomu Takeuchi, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 17, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in cryoconite hole (CH) depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole shape geometry. The simulations suggest that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the wind speed. The meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent ice surface darkening via the redistribution of CHs.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Loris Compagno, Matthias Huss, Evan Stewart Miles, Michael James McCarthy, Harry Zekollari, Amaury Dehecq, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1697–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution. We implement the module into a combined mass-balance ice-flow model, and we apply it using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia. We show that glacier geometry, volume, and flow velocity evolve differently when modelling explicitly debris cover compared to glacier evolution without the debris-cover module, demonstrating the importance of accounting for debris.
Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flández, Deniz Bozkurt, and Ralf Greve
The Cryosphere, 15, 3637–3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the current state and future evolution of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile (40°S, 72°W) with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. Under different global warming scenarios, we project ice mass losses between 56 % and 97 % by the end of the 21st century. We quantify the uncertainties based on an ensemble of climate models and on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium line altitude. Our results suggest a considerable deglaciation in southern Chile in the next 80 years.
James C. Ferguson and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 3377–3399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Debris-covered glaciers have a greater extent than their debris-free counterparts due to insulation from the debris cover. However, the transient response to climate change remains poorly understood. We use a numerical model that couples ice dynamics and debris transport and varies the climate signal. We find that debris cover delays the transient response, especially for the extent. However, adding cryokarst features near the terminus greatly enhances the response.
Jan-Hendrik Malles and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 3135–3157, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To better estimate the uncertainty in glacier mass change modeling during the 20th century we ran an established model with an ensemble of meteorological data sets. We find that the total ensemble uncertainty, especially in the early 20th century, when glaciological and meteorological observations at glacier locations were sparse, increases considerably compared to individual ensemble runs. This stems from regions with a lot of ice mass but few observations (e.g., Greenland periphery).
Guillaume Jouvet, Stefan Röllin, Hans Sahli, José Corcho, Lars Gnägi, Loris Compagno, Dominik Sidler, Margit Schwikowski, Andreas Bauder, and Martin Funk
The Cryosphere, 14, 4233–4251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We show that plutonium is an effective tracer to identify ice originating from the early 1960s at the surface of a mountain glacier after a long time within the ice flow, giving unique information on the long-term former ice motion. Combined with ice flow modelling, the dating can be extended to the entire glacier, and we show that an airplane which crash-landed on the Gauligletscher in 1946 will likely soon be released from the ice close to the place where pieces have emerged in recent years.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Brandon Berg and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3209–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models of ice sheets and glaciers are an important component of projecting sea level rise due to climate change. For models that seek to simulate the full balance of forces within the ice, if portions of the glacier are allowed to quickly break off in a process called iceberg calving, a numerical issue arises that can cause inaccurate results. We examine the issue and propose a solution so that future models can more accurately predict the future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, Cristian Proistosescu, Gerard Roe, Michelle Koutnik, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
Jordi Bolibar, Antoine Rabatel, Isabelle Gouttevin, Clovis Galiez, Thomas Condom, and Eric Sauquet
The Cryosphere, 14, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel approach for simulating glacier mass balances using a deep artificial neural network (i.e. deep learning) from climate and topographical data. This has been added as a component of a new open-source parameterized glacier evolution model. Deep learning is found to outperform linear machine learning methods, mainly due to its nonlinearity. Potential applications range from regional mass balance reconstructions from observations to simulations for past and future climates.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Shun Tsutaki, Koji Fujita, Takayuki Nuimura, Akiko Sakai, Shin Sugiyama, Jiro Komori, and Phuntsho Tshering
The Cryosphere, 13, 2733–2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate thickness change of Bhutanese glaciers during 2004–2011 using repeat GPS surveys and satellite-based observations. The thinning rate of Lugge Glacier (LG) is > 3 times that of Thorthormi Glacier (TG). Numerical simulations of ice dynamics and surface mass balance (SMB) demonstrate that the rapid thinning of LG is driven by both negative SMB and dynamic thinning, while the thinning of TG is minimised by a longitudinally compressive flow regime.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Cited articles
Bambach, N. E., Rhoades, A. M., Hatchett, B. J., Jones, A. D., Ullrich, P.
A., and Zarzycki, C. M.: Projecting climate change in South America using
variable-resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile,
Int. J. Climatol., 42, 2514–2542,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7379,
2021.
Beljaars, A. C. M., Brown, A. R., and Wood, N.: A new parametrization of
turbulent orographic form drag, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 130, 1327–1347, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.03.73, 2004.
Bogenschutz, P. A., Gettelman, A., Morrison, H., Larson, V. E., Craig, C.,
and Schanen, D. P.: Higher-order turbulence closure and its impact on
climate simulations in the community atmosphere model, J. Climate, 26, 9655–9676,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00075.1, 2013.
Bonekamp, P. N. J., de Kok, R. J., Collier, E., and Immerzeel, W. W.:
Contrasting Meteorological Drivers of the Glacier Mass Balance Between the
Karakoram and Central Himalaya, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 107,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00107, 2019.
Brodzik, M. J. and Armstrong, R.: Northern Hemisphere EASE-Grid 2.0 Weekly
Snow Cover and Sea Ice Extent, Version 4, Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA DAAC
at the National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5067/P7O0HGJLYUQU, 2013.
Brun, F., Berthier, E., Wagnon, P., Kääb, A., and Treichler, D.: A
spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances from
2000 to 2016, Nat. Geosci., 10, 668–673, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2999,
2017.
Cannon, F., Carvalho, L. M. V., Jones, C., and Bookhagen, B.: Multi-annual
variations in winter westerly disturbance activity affecting the Himalaya,
Clim. Dynam., 44, 441–455, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2248-8, 2015.
Collier, E., Mölg, T., Maussion, F., Scherer, D., Mayer, C., and Bush, A. B. G.: High-resolution interactive modelling of the mountain glacier–atmosphere interface: an application over the Karakoram, The Cryosphere, 7, 779–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, 2013.
Computational and Information Systems Laboratory: Cheyenne supercomputer, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX, 2019.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J. F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier,
A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A.,
Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M.,
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R.,
Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S.,
van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C.,
Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J.,
Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E.,
Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System
Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model Earth. Sy., 12, e2019MS001916,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020.
Danielson, J. J. and Gesch, D. B.: Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation
Data 2010 (GMTED2010), U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1073,
2011.
de Kok, R. J., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Bonekamp, P. N. J., and Immerzeel, W. W.: Towards understanding the pattern of glacier mass balances in High Mountain Asia using regional climatic modelling, The Cryosphere, 14, 3215–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3215-2020, 2020.
Dirmeyer, P. A., Gao, X., Zhao, M., Guo, Z., Oki, T., and Hanasaki, N.:
GSWP-2: Multimodel analysis and implications for our perception of the land
surface, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1381,
2006.
Dudhia, J.: A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State-NCAR mesoscale model:
validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front, Mon.
Weather Rev., 121, 1493–1513, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1493:ANVOTP>2.0.CO;2, 1993.
Dudhia, J.: A history of mesoscale model development, Asia Pac. J. Atmos. Sci.,
50, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0031-8, 2014.
Flanner, M. G. and Zender, C. S.: Snowpack radiative heating: Influence on
Tibetan Plateau climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L06501,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL022076, 2005.
Flanner, M. G., Zender, C. S., Randerson, J. T., and Rasch, P. J.:
Present-day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D11202,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008003, 2007.
Frey, H., Haeberli, W., Linsbauer, A., Huggel, C., and Paul, F.: A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 339–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-339-2010, 2010.
Gates, W. L., Boyle, J. S., Covey, C., Dease, C. G., Doutriaux, C. M.,
Drach, R. S., Fiorino, M., Gleckler, P. J., Hnilo, J. J., Marlais, S. M.,
Phillips, T. J., Potter, G. L., Santer, B. D., Sperber, K. R., Taylor, K.
E., and Williams, D. N.: An Overview of the Results of the Atmospheric Model
Intercomparison Project (AMIP I), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 29–55,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0029:AOOTRO>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Gettelman, A. and Morrison, H.: Advanced two-moment bulk microphysics for
global models. Part I: Off-line tests and comparison with other schemes, J.
Climate, 28, 1268–1287, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00102.1, 2015.
Gettelman, A., Callaghan, P., Larson, V. E., Zarzycki, C. M., Bacmeister, J.
T., Lauritzen, P. H., Bogenschutz, P. A., and Neale, R. B.: Regional Climate
Simulations With the Community Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy.,
46, 8329–8337, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001227, 2018.
Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Bacmeister, J. T., Neale, R. B., Pendergrass, A.
G., Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J. F., Fasullo, J. T., Bailey, D. A.,
Lawrence, D. M., and Mills, M. J.: High Climate Sensitivity in the Community
Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978, 2019a.
Gettelman, A., Morrison, H., Thayer-Calder, K., and Zarzycki, C. M.: The
Impact of Rimed Ice Hydrometeors on Global and Regional Climate, J. Adv. Model
Earth Sy., 11, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001488, 2019b.
Gu, H., Wang, G., Yu, Z., and Mei, R.: Assessing future climate changes and
extreme indicators in east and south Asia using the RegCM4 regional climate
model, Climatic Change, 114, 301–317, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0411-y, 2012.
Guba, O., Taylor, M. A., Ullrich, P. A., Overfelt, J. R., and Levy, M. N.: The spectral element method (SEM) on variable-resolution grids: evaluating grid sensitivity and resolution-aware numerical viscosity, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2803–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2803-2014, 2014.
Herreid, S. and Pellicciotti, F.: The state of rock debris covering Earth's
glaciers, Nat. Geosci., 13, 621–627, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0615-0, 2020.
Herrington, A. R. and Reed, K. A.: On resolution sensitivity in the
Community Atmosphere Model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 146, 3789–3807, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3873, 2020.
Herrington, A. R., Lauritzen, P. H., Lofverstrom, M., Lipscomb, W. H.,
Gettelman, A., and Taylor, M. A.: Impact of grids and dynamical cores in
CESM2.2 on the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet, J. Adv. Model
Earth Sy., 14, e2022MS003192, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003192, 2022.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková,
M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay,
P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5
global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S., Hirabayashi,
Y., Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A., Molau,
U., Morin, S., Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H. I.: High Mountain Areas, in:
IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate,
edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K.,
Alegriìa, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N.
M., IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 131–202, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.004,
2019.
Huang, X., Rhoades, A. M., Ullrich, P. A., and Zarzycki, C. M.: An
evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM for modeling California's
climate, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 8, 345–369,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000559, 2016.
Huang, X., Gettelman, A., Skamarock, W. C., Lauritzen, P. H., Curry, M., Herrington, A., Truesdale, J. T., and Duda, M.: Advancing precipitation prediction using a new-generation storm-resolving model framework – SIMA-MPAS (V1.0): a case study over the western United States, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8135–8151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8135-2022, 2022.
Hurrell, J. W., Hack, J. J., Shea, D., Caron, J. M., and Rosinski, J.: A new
sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary dataset for the community
atmosphere model, J. Climate, 21, 5145–5153, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2292.1, 2008.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J. O., Kennedy, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020.
Immerzeel, W. W., Wanders, N., Lutz, A. F., Shea, J. M., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Reconciling high-altitude precipitation in the upper Indus basin with glacier mass balances and runoff, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4673–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, 2015.
Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch,
T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M.,
Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink,
P. D. A., Kulkarni, A. v., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter,
T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A.
B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J. E. M.:
Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers, Nature, 577, 364–369,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y, 2020.
Jang, J. and Hong, S. Y.: Comparison of simulated precipitation over East
Asia in two regional models with hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic dynamical
cores, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 3579–3590, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0428.1, 2016.
Janjic, Z. I., Gerrity, J., and Nickovic, S.: An alternative approach to
nonhydrostatic modeling, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1164–1178,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1164:AAATNM>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Jeevanjee, N.: Vertical Velocity in the Gray Zone, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy.,
9, 2304–2316, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001059, 2017.
Jennings, K. S., Winchell, T. S., Livneh, B., and Molotch, N. P.: Spatial
variation of the rain-snow temperature threshold across the Northern
Hemisphere, Nat. Commun., 9, 1148, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03629-7, 2018.
Jiang, X., Wu, C., Chen, B., Wang, W., Liu, X., Lin, Z., and Han, Z.:
Exploring a variable-resolution approach for simulating the regional climate
in Southwest China using VR-CESM, Atmos. Res., 292, 106851,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106851, 2023.
Kato, S., Rose, F. G., Rutan, D. A., Thorsen, T. J., Loeb, N. G., Doelling,
D. R., Huang, X., Smith, W. L., Su, W., and Ham, S. H.: Surface irradiances
of edition 4.0 Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy
Balanced and Filled (EBAF) data product, J. Climate, 31, 4501–4527,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0523.1, 2018.
Kato, T.: Hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic simulations of the 6 August 1993
Kagoshima torrential rain, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn.,
74, 355–363, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.74.3_355, 1996.
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E.: Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 927–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, 2017.
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi,
K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Kiyotoshi, T.:
The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics,
J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 93, 5–48,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015.
Körner, C., Jetz, W., Paulsen, J., Payne, D., Rudmann-Maurer, K., and M.
Spehn, E.: A global inventory of mountains for bio-geographical
applications, Alp. Bot., 127, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00035-016-0182-6, 2017.
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lutz, A. F., and Immerzeel, W.
W.: Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's
glaciers, Nature, 549, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878, 2017.
Kruse, C. G., Bacmeister, J. T., Zarzycki, C. M., Larson, V. E., and
Thayer-Calder, K.: Do Nudging Tendencies Depend on the Nudging Timescale
Chosen in Atmospheric Models?, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 14, e2022MS003024,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003024, 2022.
Lalande, M., Ménégoz, M., Krinner, G., Naegeli, K., and Wunderle, S.: Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1061–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, 2021.
Lauritzen, P. H., Bacmeister, J. T., Callaghan, P. F., and Taylor, M. A.: NCAR_Topo (v1.0): NCAR global model topography generation software for unstructured grids, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3975–3986, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3975-2015, 2015.
Lauritzen, P. H., Nair, R. D., Herrington, A. R., Callaghan, P., Goldhaber,
S., Dennis, J. M., Bacmeister, J. T., Eaton, B. E., Zarzycki, C. M., Taylor,
M. A., Ullrich, P. A., Dubos, T., Gettelman, A., Neale, R. B., Dobbins, B.,
Reed, K. A., Hannay, C., Medeiros, B., Benedict, J. J., and Tribbia, J. J.:
NCAR Release of CAM-SE in CESM2.0: A Reformulation of the Spectral Element
Dynamical Core in Dry-Mass Vertical Coordinates With Comprehensive Treatment
of Condensates and Energy, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 10, 1537–1570,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001257, 2018.
Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Oleson, K. W., Swenson, S. C.,
Bonan, G., Collier, N., Ghimire, B., Kampenhout, L., Kennedy, D., Kluzek,
E., Lawrence, P. J., Li, F., Li, H., Lombardozzi, D., Riley, W. J., Sacks,
W. J., Shi, M., Vertenstein, M., Wieder, W. R., Xu, C., Ali, A. A., Badger,
A. M., Bisht, G., Broeke, M., Brunke, M. A., Burns, S. P., Buzan, J., Clark,
M., Craig, A., Dahlin, K., Drewniak, B., Fisher, J. B., Flanner, M., Fox, A.
M., Gentine, P., Hoffman, F., Keppel-Aleks, G., Knox, R., Kumar, S.,
Lenaerts, J., Leung, L. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Lu, Y., Pandey, A., Pelletier,
J. D., Perket, J., Randerson, J. T., Ricciuto, D. M., Sanderson, B. M.,
Slater, A., Subin, Z. M., Tang, J., Thomas, R. Q., Val Martin, M., and Zeng,
X.: The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features,
Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 11,
4245–4287, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001583, 2019.
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Vizcaino, M., Fyke, J., van Kampenhout, L., and van den
Broeke, M. R.: Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and
surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model, Clim. Dynam., 47,
1367–1381, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4, 2016.
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Medley, B., van den Broeke, M. R., and Wouters, B.:
Observing and Modeling Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance, Rev.
Geophys., 57, 376–420, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000622, 2019.
Li, D., Lu, X., Walling, D. E., Zhang, T., Steiner, J. F., Wasson, R. J.,
Harrison, S., Nepal, S., Nie, Y., Immerzeel, W. W., Shugar, D. H., Koppes,
M., Lane, S., Zeng, Z., Sun, X., Yegorov, A., and Bolch, T.: High Mountain
Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability,
Nat. Geosci., 15, 520–530, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00953-y, 2022.
Lindzen, R. S. and Fox-Rabinovitz, M.: Consistent vertical and horizontal
resolution, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 2575–2583,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<2575:CVAHR>2.0.CO;2, 1989.
Lipscomb, W. H., Fyke, J. G., Vizcaíno, M., Sacks, W. J., Wolfe, J.,
Vertenstein, M., Craig, A., Kluzek, E., and Lawrence, D. M.: Implementation
and Initial Evaluation of the Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model in the
Community Earth System Model, J. Climate, 26, 7352–7371,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00557.1, 2013.
Lipscomb, W. H., Price, S. F., Hoffman, M. J., Leguy, G. R., Bennett, A. R., Bradley, S. L., Evans, K. J., Fyke, J. G., Kennedy, J. H., Perego, M., Ranken, D. M., Sacks, W. J., Salinger, A. G., Vargo, L. J., and Worley, P. H.: Description and evaluation of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) v2.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019.
Liu, W., Ullrich, P. A., Guba, O., Caldwell, P. M., and Keen, N. D.: An
Assessment of Nonhydrostatic and Hydrostatic Dynamical Cores at Seasonal
Time Scales in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), J. Adv. Model
Earth. Sy., 14, e2021MS002805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002805, 2022.
Liu, X., Ma, P.-L., Wang, H., Tilmes, S., Singh, B., Easter, R. C., Ghan, S. J., and Rasch, P. J.: Description and evaluation of a new four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) within version 5.3 of the Community Atmosphere Model, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 505–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-505-2016, 2016.
Loeb, N. G., Doelling, D. R., Wang, H., Su, W., Nguyen, C., Corbett, J. G.,
Liang, L., Mitrescu, C., Rose, F. G., and Kato, S.: Clouds and the Earth'S
Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF)
top-of-atmosphere (TOA) edition-4.0 data product, J. Climate, 31, 895–918,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0208.1, 2018.
Lutz, A. F., ter Maat, H. W., Wijngaard, R. R., Biemans, H., Syed, A.,
Shrestha, A. B., Wester, P., and Immerzeel, W. W.: South Asian river basins
in a 1.5 ∘C warmer world, Reg. Environ. Change, 19, 833–847,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4, 2019.
Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Siderius, C., Wijngaard, R. R., Nepal, S.,
Shrestha, A. B., Wester, P., and Biemans, H.: South Asian agriculture
increasingly dependent on meltwater and groundwater, Nat. Clim. Change, 12,
566–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01355-z, 2022.
Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Anderson, B., Bliss, A., Champollion, N., Fujita,
K., Huss, M., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P., Malles, J., Maussion, F.,
Radić, V., Rounce, D. R., Sakai, A., Shannon, S., Wal, R., and
Zekollari, H.: Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of
Global Glacier Mass Change, Earths Future, 8, e2019EF001470,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470, 2020.
Mölg, T. and Kaser, G.: A new approach to resolving climate-cryosphere
relations: Downscaling climate dynamics to glacier-scale mass and energy
balance without statistical scale linking, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D16101,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015669, 2011.
Muntjewerf, L., Sacks, W. J., Lofverstrom, M., Fyke, J., Lipscomb, W. H.,
Ernani da Silva, C., Vizcaino, M., Thayer-Calder, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M.,
and Sellevold, R.: Description and Demonstration of the Coupled Community
Earth System Model v2 – Community Ice Sheet Model v2 (CESM2-CISM2), J. Adv.
Model Earth Sy., 13, e2020MS002356, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002356, 2021.
Nie, Y., Pritchard, H. D., Liu, Q., Hennig, T., Wang, W., Wang, X., Liu, S.,
Nepal, S., Samyn, D., Hewitt, K., and Chen, X.: Glacial change and
hydrological implications in the Himalaya and Karakoram, Nat. Rev. Earth
Environ., 2, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00124-w, 2021.
Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Bonan, G. B., Drewniak, B., Huang, M., Koven, C. D. , Levis, S., Li, F., Riley, W. J., Subin, Z. M., Swenson, S., Thornton, P. E. , Bozbiyik, A., Fisher, R., Heald, C. L., Kluzek, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Ruby Leung, L., Lipscomb, W., Muszala, S. P., Ricciuto, D. M., Sacks, W. J., Tang, J., and Yang, Z.-L.: Technical description of version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM), Ncar Tech. Note NCAR/TN-503+STR. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 1–434, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RR1W7M, 2013.
Orsolini, Y., Wegmann, M., Dutra, E., Liu, B., Balsamo, G., Yang, K., de Rosnay, P., Zhu, C., Wang, W., Senan, R., and Arduini, G.: Evaluation of snow depth and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in global reanalyses using in situ and satellite remote sensing observations, The Cryosphere, 13, 2221–2239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2221-2019, 2019.
Palazzi, E., Von Hardenberg, J., Terzago, S., and Provenzale, A.:
Precipitation in the Karakoram-Himalaya: a CMIP5 view, Clim. Dynam., 45, 21–45,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2341-z, 2015.
Rahimi, S. R., Wu, C., Liu, X., and Brown, H.: Exploring a
Variable-Resolution Approach for Simulating Regional Climate Over the
Tibetan Plateau Using VR-CESM, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
124, 4490–4513, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028925, 2019.
Rauscher, S. A., Ringler, T. D., Skamarock, W. C., and Mirin, A. A.:
Exploring a global multiresolution modeling approach using aquaplanet
simulations, J. Climate, 26, 2432–2452, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00154.1, 2013.
RGI-Consortium: Randolph Glacier Inventory – A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines: Version 6.0, Technical Report, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Colorado, USA, Boulder, Colorado, USA, https://doi.org/10.7265/4m1f-gd79, 2017.
Rhoades, A. M., Huang, X., Ullrich, P. A., and Zarzycki, C. M.:
Characterizing Sierra Nevada Snowpack Using Variable-Resolution CESM, J. Appl.
Meteorol. Clim., 55, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0156.1,
2016.
Rhoades, A. M., Ullrich, P. A., Zarzycki, C. M., Johansen, H., Margulis, S.
A., Morrison, H., Xu, Z., and Collins, W. D.: Sensitivity of Mountain
Hydroclimate Simulations in Variable-Resolution CESM to Microphysics and
Horizontal Resolution, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 10, 1357–1380,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001326, 2018.
Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M. A., Hagemann, S.,
Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of
simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5
atmosphere model, J. Climate, 19, 3771–3791, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3824.1, 2006.
Sellevold, R., van Kampenhout, L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Noël, B., Lipscomb, W. H., and Vizcaino, M.: Surface mass balance downscaling through elevation classes in an Earth system model: application to the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 13, 3193–3208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, 2019.
Shannon, S., Smith, R., Wiltshire, A., Payne, T., Huss, M., Betts, R., Caesar, J., Koutroulis, A., Jones, D., and Harrison, S.: Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios, The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019.
Shean, D. E., Bhushan, S., Montesano, P., Rounce, D. R., Arendt, A., and
Osmanoglu, B.: A Systematic, Regional Assessment of High Mountain Asia
Glacier Mass Balance, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 363,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00363, 2020.
Skamarock, W. C., Snyder, C., Klemp, J. B., and Park, S. H.: Vertical
resolution requirements in atmospheric simulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 2641–2656,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0043.1, 2019.
Slater, A. G., Schlosser, C. A., Desborough, C. E., Pitman, A. J.,
Henderson-Sellers, A., Robock, A., Vinnikov, K. Y., Mitchell, K., Boone, A.,
Braden, H., Chen, F., Cox, P. M., De Rosnay, P., Dickinson, R. E., Dai, Y.
J., Duan, Q., Entin, J., Etchevers, P., Gedney, N., Gusev, Y. M., Habets,
F., Kim, J., Koren, V., Kowalczyk, E. A., Nasonova, O. N., Noilhan, J.,
Schaake, S., Shmakin, A. B., Smirnova, T. G., Verseghy, D., Wetzel, P., Xue,
Y., Yang, Z. L., and Zeng, Q.: The representation of snow in land surface
schemes: Results from PILPS 2(d), J. Hydrometeorol., 2, 7–25,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002<0007:TROSIL>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Smith, T. and Bookhagen, B.: Changes in seasonal snow water equivalent
distribution in High Mountain Asia (1987 to 2009), Sci. Adv., 4, e1701550,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701550, 2018.
Swenson, S. C., Clark, M., Fan, Y., Lawrence, D. M., and Perket, J.:
Representing Intrahillslope Lateral Subsurface Flow in the Community Land
Model, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 11, 4044–4065, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001833,
2019.
Tesfa, T. K., Leung, L. R., and Ghan, S. J.: Exploring Topography-Based
Methods for Downscaling Subgrid Precipitation for Use in Earth System
Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031456,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031456, 2020.
Ullrich, P. A.: SQuadGen: spherical quadrilateral grid generator, https://climate.ucdavis.edu/squadgen.php (last access: 29 August 2023), 2014.
van Kampenhout, L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lipscomb, W. H., Sacks, W. J.,
Lawrence, D. M., Slater, A. G., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Improving the
Representation of Polar Snow and Firn in the Community Earth System Model, J.
Adv. Model Earth Sy., 9, 2583–2600, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000988,
2017.
van Kampenhout, L., Rhoades, A. M., Herrington, A. R., Zarzycki, C. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Sacks, W. J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Regional grid refinement in an Earth system model: impacts on the simulated Greenland surface mass balance, The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019.
van Kampenhout, L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lipscomb, W. H., Lhermitte, S.,
Noël, B., Vizcaíno, M., Sacks, W. J., and van den Broeke, M. R.:
Present-Day Greenland Ice Sheet Climate and Surface Mass Balance in CESM2, J
Geophys. Res.-Earth, 125, e2019JF005318,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005318, 2020.
Van Tricht, K., Lhermitte, S., Gorodetskaya, I. V., and van Lipzig, N. P. M.: Improving satellite-retrieved surface radiative fluxes in polar regions using a smart sampling approach, The Cryosphere, 10, 2379–2397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2379-2016, 2016.
Viste, E. and Sorteberg, A.: Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future from a little-known past, The Cryosphere, 9, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1147-2015, 2015.
Vizcaino, M.: Ice sheets as interactive components of Earth System Models:
progress and challenges, Wires Clim. Change, 5, 557–568,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.285, 2014.
Vizcaíno, M., Lipscomb, W. H., Sacks, W. J., van Angelen, J. H.,
Wouters, B., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Greenland Surface Mass Balance as
Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part I: Model Evaluation and
1850–2005 Results, J. Climate, 26, 7793–7812,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00615.1, 2013.
Wang, R., Ding, Y., Shangguan, D., Guo, W., Zhao, Q., Li, Y., and Song, M.:
Influence of Topographic Shading on the Mass Balance of the High Mountain
Asia Glaciers, Remote Sens.-Basel, 14, 1576, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14071576,
2022.
Wang, X., Tolksdorf, V., Otto, M., and Scherer, D.: WRF-based dynamical
downscaling of ERA5 reanalysis data for High Mountain Asia: Towards a new
version of the High Asia Refined analysis, Int. J.
Climatol., 41, 743–762, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6686, 2021.
Waterman, T., Bragg, A., Simon, J., and Chaney, N.: Capturing the Effects of Surface Heterogeneity Induced Secondary Circulations on the Lower Sub-grid Atmosphere in Earth System Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10646, 2022.
Wedi, N., Benard, P., Yessad, K., Untch, A., Malardel, S., Hamrud, M.,
Mozdzynski, G., Fisher, M., and Smolarkiewicz, P.: Non-hydrostatic modeling
with IFS: current status,
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/78642-non-hydrostatic-modeling-ifs-current-status (last access: 30 August 2023),
November 2010.
Wedi, N. P. and Smolarkiewicz, P. K.: A framework for testing global
non-hydrostatic models, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 135, 469–484, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.377, 2009.
Weedon, G. P., Balsamo, G., Bellouin, N., Gomes, S., Best, M. J., and
Viterbo, P.: The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing data
methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resour. Res., 50,
7505–7514, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015638, 2014.
Wijngaard, R. R., Lutz, A. F., Nepal, S., Khanal, S., Pradhananga, S.,
Shrestha, A. B., and Immerzeel, W. W.: Future changes in hydro-climatic
extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins, PLoS One,
12, e0190224, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0190224, 2017.
Wijngaard, R. R., Herrington, A. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Leguy, G. R., and An,
S.-I.: CLM/CTSM glacier input datasets used for study on evaluation
variable-resolution CESM2 in High-Mountain Asia, Zenodo [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.7864689, 2023a.
Wijngaard, R. R., Herrington, A. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Leguy, G. R., and An,
S.-I.: Dataset used for “Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution CESM to simulate cryospheric-hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7864633, 2023b.
Wu, X., Reed, K. A., Callaghan, P., and Bacmeister, J. T.: Exploring Western
North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High-Resolution Community
Atmosphere Model, Earth Space Sci., 9, e2021EA001862,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001862, 2022.
Xu, Z., di Vittorio, A., Zhang, J., Rhoades, A., Xin, X., Xu, H., and Xiao,
C.: Evaluating Variable-Resolution CESM Over China and Western United States
for Use in Water-Energy Nexus and Impacts Modeling, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034361,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034361, 2021.
Yang, Q., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Lin, Y. L., Hagos, S., Sakaguchi, K., and
Gao, Y.: Exploring the effects of a nonhydrostatic dynamical core in
high-resolution aquaplanet simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 122, 3245–3265,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025287, 2017.
Yao, T., Thompson, L., Yang, W., Yu, W., Gao, Y., Guo, X., Yang, X., Duan,
K., Zhao, H., Xu, B., Pu, J., Lu, A., Xiang, Y., Kattel, D. B., and Joswiak,
D.: Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan
Plateau and surroundings, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 663–667,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1580, 2012.
Zarzycki, C. M., Levy, M. N., Jablonowski, C., Overfelt, J. R., Taylor, M.
A., and Ullrich, P. A.: Aquaplanet Experiments Using CAM's
Variable-Resolution Dynamical Core, J. Climate, 27, 5481–5503,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00004.1, 2014.
Zemp, M., Huss, M., Thibert, E., Eckert, N., McNabb, R., Huber, J.,
Barandun, M., Machguth, H., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gärtner-Roer, I.,
Thomson, L., Paul, F., Maussion, F., Kutuzov, S., and Cogley, J. G.: Global
glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to
2016, Nature, 568, 382–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0,
2019.
Zhang, G. J. and McFarlane, N. A.: Sensitivity of climate simulations to the
parameterization of cumulus convection in the canadian climate centre
general circulation model, Atmos. Ocean, 33, 407–446,
https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1995.9649539, 1995.
Short summary
We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate...
