Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5805-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5805-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Effect of snowfall on changes in relative seismic velocity measured by ambient noise correlation
Antoine Guillemot
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire ISTerre, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, 38000 Grenoble, France
Alec van Herwijnen
Avalanche Formation Group, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Eric Larose
Laboratoire ISTerre, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, 38000 Grenoble, France
Stephanie Mayer
Avalanche Formation Group, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Laurent Baillet
Laboratoire ISTerre, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, 38000 Grenoble, France
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Antoine Guillemot, Laurent Baillet, Stéphane Garambois, Xavier Bodin, Agnès Helmstetter, Raphaël Mayoraz, and Eric Larose
The Cryosphere, 15, 501–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-501-2021, 2021
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Among mountainous permafrost landforms, rock glaciers are composed of boulders, fine frozen materials, water and ice in various proportions. Displacement rates of active rock glaciers can reach several m/yr, contributing to emerging risks linked to gravitational hazards. Thanks to passive seismic monitoring, resonance effects related to seasonal freeze–thawing processes of the shallower layers have been monitored and modeled. This method is an accurate tool for studying rock glaciers at depth.
Stephanie Mayer, Martin Hendrick, Adrien Michel, Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Heini Wernli, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5495–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024, 2024
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Understanding the impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity is crucial for safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Here, we project changes in avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps throughout the 21st century. Our findings reveal elevation-dependent patterns of change, indicating a decrease in dry-snow avalanches alongside an increase in wet-snow avalanches at elevations above the current treeline. These results underscore the necessity to revisit measures for avalanche risk mitigation.
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
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Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Ross S. Purves, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-158, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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We evaluate fully data- and model-driven predictions of avalanche danger in Switzerland and compare them with human-made avalanche forecasts as a benchmark. We show that model predictions perform similarly to human forecasts calling for a systematic integration of forecast chains into the forecasting process.
Amelie Fees, Michael Lombardo, Alec van Herwijnen, Peter Lehmann, and Jürg Schweizer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2485, 2024
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Glide-snow avalanches release at the soil-snow interface due to a loss of friction which is suspected to be linked to interfacial water. The importance of the interfacial water was investigated with a spatio-temporal soil and local snow monitoring setup in an avalanche-prone slope. Seven glide-snow avalanches released on the monitoring grid (season 2021/22 to 2023/24) and provided insights into the source, quantity, and spatial distribution of interfacial water before avalanche release.
Philipp L. Rosendahl, Johannes Schneider, Grégoire Bobillier, Florian Rheinschmidt, Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, and Philipp Weißgraeber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-122, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Our research investigates the role of anticracks in snowpacks and their impact on avalanche formation, focusing on anticracks due to weak layer collapse. We discovered that slab touchdown on the snow below the weak layer decreases the energy available for crack propagation, potentially leading to a stop of crack propagation. This underscores the importance of mechanical interactions in snowpack stability. Our work offers new insights for enhancing avalanche prediction and mitigation strategies.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Michele Volpi, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2374, 2024
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This study assesses the performance and explainability of a random forest classifier for predicting dry-snow avalanche danger levels during initial live-testing. The model achieved ∼70 % agreement with human forecasts, performing equally well in nowcast and forecast modes, while capturing the temporal dynamics of avalanche forecasting. The explainability approach enhances the transparency of the model's decision-making process, providing a valuable tool for operational avalanche forecasting.
Gwendolyn Dasser, Valentin T. Bickel, Marius Rüetschi, Mylène Jacquemart, Mathias Bavay, Elisabeth D. Hafner, Alec van Herwijnen, and Andrea Manconi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1510, 2024
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Understanding snowpack wetness is crucial for predicting wet snow avalanches, but detailed data is often limited to certain locations. Using satellite radar, we monitor snow wetness spatially continuously. By combining different radar tracks from Sentinel-1, we improved spatial resolution and tracked snow wetness over several seasons. Our results indicate higher snow wetness to correlate with increased wet snow avalanche activity, suggesting our method can help identify potential risk areas.
Mohit Mishra, Gildas Besançon, Guillaume Chambon, and Laurent Baillet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1227, 2024
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This work was initiated in the context of a large interdisciplinary research project about Risk at Grenoble University, France. It relates to the challenging topic of landslide monitoring, and combines geotechnical sciences with techniques from control system engineering. Considering a specific modelling approach, the study provides a methodology towards estimation of some landslide parameters and their use in motion prediction. This could then be extended to the design of alert systems.
Andri Simeon, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Michele Volpi, Christine Seupel, and Alec van Herwijnen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-76, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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Avalanche seismic detection systems are key for forecasting, but distinguishing avalanches from other seismic sources remains challenging. We propose novel autoencoder models to automatically extract features and compare them with standard seismic attributes. These features are then used to classify avalanches and noise events. The autoencoder feature classifiers have the highest sensitivity to detect avalanches, while the standard seismic classifier performs better overall.
Grégoire Bobillier, Bertil Trottet, Bastian Bergfeld, Ron Simenhois, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, 2024
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Our study focuses on the initiation process of snow slab avalanches. By combining experimental data and numerical simulations, we show that on gentle slopes, a crack forms and propagates due to compression fracture within a weak layer, and on steep slopes, the crack velocity can increase dramatically after about 5 meters due to a fracture mode transition (compression to shear). Understanding these dynamics represents an essential additional piece in the dry-snow slab avalanche formation puzzle.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, 2024
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To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the Propagation Saw Test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
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We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Mathieu Le Breton, Éric Larose, Laurent Baillet, Yves Lejeune, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 17, 3137–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3137-2023, 2023
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We monitor the amount of snow on the ground using passive radiofrequency identification (RFID) tags. These small and inexpensive tags are wirelessly read by a stationary reader placed above the snowpack. Variations in the radiofrequency phase delay accurately reflect variations in snow amount, known as snow water equivalent. Additionally, each tag is equipped with a sensor that monitors the snow temperature.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
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For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Stephanie Mayer, Alec van Herwijnen, Frank Techel, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 16, 4593–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, 2022
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Information on snow instability is crucial for avalanche forecasting. We introduce a novel machine-learning-based method to assess snow instability from snow stratigraphy simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK. To develop the model, we compared observed and simulated snow profiles. Our model provides a probability of instability for every layer of a simulated snow profile, which allows detection of the weakest layer and assessment of its degree of instability with one single index.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
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A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
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Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Nora Helbig, Michael Schirmer, Jan Magnusson, Flavia Mäder, Alec van Herwijnen, Louis Quéno, Yves Bühler, Jeff S. Deems, and Simon Gascoin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4607–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021, 2021
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The snow cover spatial variability in mountains changes considerably over the course of a snow season. In applications such as weather, climate and hydrological predictions the fractional snow-covered area is therefore an essential parameter characterizing how much of the ground surface in a grid cell is currently covered by snow. We present a seasonal algorithm and a spatiotemporal evaluation suggesting that the algorithm can be applied in other geographic regions by any snow model application.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Benjamin Reuter, Grégoire Bobillier, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 15, 3539–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, 2021
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The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
dynamic crack propagation phasein which a whole slope becomes detached. The present work contains the first field methodology which provides the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to study this phase. We demonstrate the versatile capabilities and accuracy of our method by revealing intricate dynamics and present how to determine relevant characteristics of crack propagation such as crack speed.
Antoine Guillemot, Laurent Baillet, Stéphane Garambois, Xavier Bodin, Agnès Helmstetter, Raphaël Mayoraz, and Eric Larose
The Cryosphere, 15, 501–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-501-2021, 2021
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Among mountainous permafrost landforms, rock glaciers are composed of boulders, fine frozen materials, water and ice in various proportions. Displacement rates of active rock glaciers can reach several m/yr, contributing to emerging risks linked to gravitational hazards. Thanks to passive seismic monitoring, resonance effects related to seasonal freeze–thawing processes of the shallower layers have been monitored and modeled. This method is an accurate tool for studying rock glaciers at depth.
Michaela Wenner, Clément Hibert, Alec van Herwijnen, Lorenz Meier, and Fabian Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 339–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-339-2021, 2021
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Mass movements constitute a risk to property and human life. In this study we use machine learning to automatically detect and classify slope failure events using ground vibrations. We explore the influence of non-ideal though commonly encountered conditions: poor network coverage, small number of events, and low signal-to-noise ratios. Our approach enables us to detect the occurrence of rare events of high interest in a large data set of more than a million windowed seismic signals.
Bettina Richter, Alec van Herwijnen, Mathias W. Rotach, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2873–2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020, 2020
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We investigated the sensitivity of modeled snow instability to uncertainties in meteorological input, typically found in complex terrain. The formation of the weak layer was very robust due to the long dry period, indicated by a widespread avalanche problem. Once a weak layer has formed, precipitation mostly determined slab and weak layer properties and hence snow instability. When spatially assessing snow instability for avalanche forecasting, accurate precipitation patterns have to be known.
Louis Quéno, Charles Fierz, Alec van Herwijnen, Dylan Longridge, and Nander Wever
The Cryosphere, 14, 3449–3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, 2020
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Deep ice layers may form in the snowpack due to preferential water flow with impacts on the snowpack mechanical, hydrological and thermodynamical properties. We studied their formation and evolution at a high-altitude alpine site, combining a comprehensive observation dataset at a daily frequency (with traditional snowpack observations, penetration resistance and radar measurements) and detailed snowpack modeling, including a new parameterization of ice formation in the 1-D SNOWPACK model.
Frank Techel, Kurt Winkler, Matthias Walcher, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1941–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1941-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1941-2020, 2020
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Snow instability tests, like the extended column test (ECT), provide valuable information regarding point snow instability. A large data set of ECT – together with information on slope instability – was explored. The findings clearly show that combining information regarding propagation propensity and fracture initiation provided the best correlation with slope instability. A new four-class stability interpretation scheme is proposed for ECT results.
Neige Calonne, Bettina Richter, Henning Löwe, Cecilia Cetti, Judith ter Schure, Alec Van Herwijnen, Charles Fierz, Matthias Jaggi, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 14, 1829–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1829-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1829-2020, 2020
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During winter 2015–2016, the standard program to monitor the structure and stability of the snowpack at Weissflujoch, Swiss Alps, was complemented by additional measurements to compare between various traditional and newly developed techniques. Snow micro-penetrometer measurements allowed monitoring of the evolution of the snowpack's internal structure at a daily resolution throughout the winter. We show the potential of such high-resolution data for detailed evaluations of snowpack models.
Emanuele Marchetti, Alec van Herwijnen, Marc Christen, Maria Cristina Silengo, and Giulia Barfucci
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 399–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-399-2020, 2020
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We present infrasonic and seismic array data of a powder snow avalanche, that was released on 5 February 2016, in the Dischma valley nearby Davos, Switzerland. Combining information derived from both arrays, we show how infrasound and seismic energy are radiated from different sources acting along the path. Moreover, infrasound transmits to the ground and affects the recorded seismic signal. Results highlight the benefits of combined seismo-acoustic array analyses for monitoring and research.
Grégoire Bobillier, Bastian Bergfeld, Achille Capelli, Jürg Dual, Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 14, 39–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-39-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-39-2020, 2020
Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Mathias W. Rotach, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
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Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Matthias Heck, Alec van Herwijnen, Conny Hammer, Manuel Hobiger, Jürg Schweizer, and Donat Fäh
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 491–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-491-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-491-2019, 2019
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We used continuous seismic data from two small aperture geophone arrays deployed in the region above Davos in the eastern Swiss Alps to develop a machine learning workflow to automatically identify signals generated by snow avalanches. Our results suggest that the method presented could be used to identify major avalanche periods and highlight the importance of array processing techniques for the automatic classification of avalanches in seismic data.
Floriane Provost, Jean-Philippe Malet, Clément Hibert, Agnès Helmstetter, Mathilde Radiguet, David Amitrano, Nadège Langet, Eric Larose, Clàudia Abancó, Marcel Hürlimann, Thomas Lebourg, Clara Levy, Gaëlle Le Roy, Patrice Ulrich, Maurin Vidal, and Benjamin Vial
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1059–1088, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1059-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1059-2018, 2018
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Seismic sources generated by the deformation of unstable slopes are diverse in terms of signal properties and mechanisms. Standardized catalogues of landslide endogenous seismicity can help understanding the physical processes controlling slope dynamics. We propose a generic typology of seismic sources based on the analysis of signals recorded at various instrumented slopes. We demonstrate that the seismic signals present similar features at different sites and discuss their mechanical sources.
Matthias Heck, Conny Hammer, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Donat Fäh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 383–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-383-2018, 2018
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In this study we use hidden Markov models, a machine learning algorithm to automatically identify avalanche events in a continuous seismic data set recorded during the winter 2010. With additional post processing steps, we detected around 70 avalanche events. Although not every detection could be confirmed as an avalanche, we clearly identified the two main avalanche periods of the winter season 2010 in our classification results.
Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, Guillaume Chambon, Nander Wever, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 11, 217–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-217-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-217-2017, 2017
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Based on DEM simulations we developed a new model for the onset of crack propagation in snow slab avalanche release. The model reconciles past approaches by considering the complex interplay between slab elasticity and the mechanical behavior of the weak layer including its structural collapse. The model agrees with extensive field data and can reproduce crack propagation on low-angle terrain and the decrease in critical crack length with increasing slope angle observed in numerical experiments.
Jürg Schweizer, Benjamin Reuter, Alec van Herwijnen, Bettina Richter, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 10, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2637-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2637-2016, 2016
Fabiano Monti, Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 775–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-775-2016, 2016
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We propose a new approach based on a simplification of the multi-layered elasticity theory in order to easily compute the additional stress due to a skier at the depth of the weak layer, taking into account the layering of the snow slab and the substratum. The method was tested on simplified snow profiles, then on manually observed snow profiles including a stability test and, finally, on simulated snow profiles, thereby showing the promise of our approach.
J. Gaume, A. van Herwijnen, G. Chambon, K. W. Birkeland, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1915–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, 2015
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We proposed a new approach to characterize the dynamic phase of crack propagation in weak snowpack layers as well as fracture arrest propensity by means of numerical "propagation saw test" simulations based on the discrete element method. Crack propagation speed and distance before fracture arrest were derived from the simulations for different snowpack configurations and mechanical properties. Numerical and experimental results were compared and the mechanical processes at play were discussed.
B. Reuter, J. Schweizer, and A. van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 9, 837–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-837-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-837-2015, 2015
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We present a novel approach to estimate point snow instability based on snow mechanical properties from snow micro-penetrometer measurements. This is the first approach that takes into account the essential processes involved in dry-snow slab avalanche release: failure initiation and crack propagation. Comparison with field observations confirms that the two-step calculation of a stability criterion and a critical crack length is suited to describe point snow instability.
M. Stähli, M. Sättele, C. Huggel, B. W. McArdell, P. Lehmann, A. Van Herwijnen, A. Berne, M. Schleiss, A. Ferrari, A. Kos, D. Or, and S. M. Springman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
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This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
N. Helbig, A. van Herwijnen, J. Magnusson, and T. Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1339–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, 2015
E. H. Bair, R. Simenhois, A. van Herwijnen, and K. Birkeland
The Cryosphere, 8, 1407–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1407-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1407-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Discipline: Snow | Subject: Snow Physics
Multiscale modeling of heat and mass transfer in dry snow: influence of the condensation coefficient and comparison with experiments
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A rigorous approach to the specific surface area evolution in snow during temperature gradient metamorphism
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Heterogeneous grain growth and vertical mass transfer within a snow layer under a temperature gradient
Impact of the sampling procedure on the specific surface area of snow measurements with the IceCube
Wind conditions for snow cornice formation in a wind tunnel
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Identification of blowing snow particles in images from a Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera
Modeling snow slab avalanches caused by weak-layer failure – Part 1: Slabs on compliant and collapsible weak layers
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Modeling the evolution of the structural anisotropy of snow
Motion of dust particles in dry snow under temperature gradient metamorphism
Influence of light-absorbing particles on snow spectral irradiance profiles
Saharan dust events in the European Alps: role in snowmelt and geochemical characterization
On the suitability of the Thorpe–Mason model for calculating sublimation of saltating snow
The influence of layering and barometric pumping on firn air transport in a 2-D model
Lisa Bouvet, Neige Calonne, Frédéric Flin, and Christian Geindreau
The Cryosphere, 18, 4285–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4285-2024, 2024
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Four different macroscopic heat and mass transfer models have been derived for a large range of condensation coefficient values by an upscaling method. A comprehensive evaluation of the models is presented based on experimental datasets and numerical examples. The models reproduce the trend of experimental temperature and density profiles but underestimate the magnitude of the processes. Possible causes of these discrepancies and potential improvements for the models are suggested.
Benjamin Walter, Hagen Weigel, Sonja Wahl, and Henning Löwe
The Cryosphere, 18, 3633–3652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3633-2024, 2024
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The topmost layer of a snowpack forms the interface to the atmosphere and is critical for the reflectance of solar radiation and avalanche formation. The effect of wind on the surface snow microstructure during precipitation events is poorly understood and quantified. We performed controlled lab experiments in a ring wind tunnel to systematically quantify the snow microstructure for different wind speeds, temperatures and precipitation intensities and to identify the relevant processes.
Ryo Inoue, Teruo Aoki, Shuji Fujita, Shun Tsutaki, Hideaki Motoyama, Fumio Nakazawa, and Kenji Kawamura
The Cryosphere, 18, 3513–3531, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3513-2024, 2024
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We measured the snow specific surface area (SSA) at ~2150 surfaces between the coast near Syowa Station and Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, in summer 2021–2022. The observed SSA shows no elevation dependence between 15 and 500 km from the coast and increases toward the dome area beyond the range. SSA varies depending on surface morphologies and meteorological events. The spatial variation of SSA can be explained by snow metamorphism, snowfall frequency, and wind-driven inhibition of snow deposition.
Kévin Fourteau, Johannes Freitag, Mika Malinen, and Henning Löwe
The Cryosphere, 18, 2831–2846, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2831-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2831-2024, 2024
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Understanding the settling of snow under its own weight has applications from avalanche forecasts to ice core interpretations. We study how this settling can be modeled using 3D images of the internal structure of snow and ice deformation mechanics. We found that classical ice mechanics, as used, for instance, in glacier flow, explain the compaction of dense polar snow but not that of lighter seasonal snow. How, exactly, the ice deforms during light snow compaction thus remains an open question.
Anna Braun, Kévin Fourteau, and Henning Löwe
The Cryosphere, 18, 1653–1668, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1653-2024, 2024
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The specific surface of snow dictates key physical properties and continuously evolves in natural snowpacks. This is referred to as metamorphism. This work develops a rigorous physical model for this evolution, which is able to reproduce X-ray tomography measurements without using unphysical tuning parameters. Our results emphasize that snow crystal growth at the micrometer scale ultimately controls the pace of metamorphism.
Kavitha Sundu, Johannes Freitag, Kévin Fourteau, and Henning Löwe
The Cryosphere, 18, 1579–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1579-2024, 2024
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Ice crystals often show a rod-like, vertical orientation in snow and firn; they are said to be anisotropic. The stiffness in the vertical direction therefore differs from the horizontal, which, for example, impacts the propagation of seismic waves. To quantify this anisotropy, we conducted finite-element simulations of 391 snow, firn, and ice core microstructures obtained from X-ray tomography. We then derived a parameterization that may be employed for advanced seismic studies in polar regions.
Stefano Picotti, José M. Carcione, and Mauro Pavan
The Cryosphere, 18, 169–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-169-2024, 2024
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A physical explanation of the seismic attenuation in the polar snow and ice masses is essential to gaining insight into the ice sheet and deeper geological formations. We estimate the P- and S-wave attenuation profiles of the Whillans Ice Stream from the spectral analysis of three-component active-source seismic data. The firn and ice quality factors are then modeled using a rock-physics theory that combines White's mesoscopic attenuation theory of interlayer flow with that of Biot/squirt flow.
Amy R. Macfarlane, Henning Löwe, Lucille Gimenes, David N. Wagner, Ruzica Dadic, Rafael Ottersberg, Stefan Hämmerle, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 17, 5417–5434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5417-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5417-2023, 2023
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Snow acts as an insulating blanket on Arctic sea ice, keeping the underlying ice "warm", relative to the atmosphere. Knowing the snow's thermal conductivity is essential for understanding winter ice growth. During the MOSAiC expedition, we measured the thermal conductivity of snow. We found spatial and vertical variability to overpower any temporal variability or dependency on underlying ice type and the thermal resistance to be directly influenced by snow height.
Lisa Bouvet, Neige Calonne, Frédéric Flin, and Christian Geindreau
The Cryosphere, 17, 3553–3573, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3553-2023, 2023
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This study presents two new experiments of temperature gradient metamorphism in a snow layer using tomographic time series and focusing on the vertical extent. The results highlight two little known phenomena: the development of morphological vertical heterogeneities from an initial uniform layer, which is attributed to the temperature range and the vapor pressure distribution, and the quantification of the mass loss at the base caused by the vertical vapor fluxes and the dry lower boundary.
Julia Martin and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 17, 1723–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1723-2023, 2023
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The grain size of snow determines how light is reflected and other physical properties. The IceCube measures snow grain size at the specific near-infrared wavelength of 1320 nm. In our study, the preparation of snow samples for the IceCube creates a thin layer of small particles. Comparisons of the grain size with computed tomography, particle counting and numerical simulation confirm the aforementioned observation. We conclude that measurements at this wavelength underestimate the grain size.
Hongxiang Yu, Guang Li, Benjamin Walter, Michael Lehning, Jie Zhang, and Ning Huang
The Cryosphere, 17, 639–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-639-2023, 2023
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Snow cornices lead to the potential risk of causing snow avalanche hazards, which are still unknown so far. We carried out a wind tunnel experiment in a cold lab to investigate the environmental conditions for snow cornice accretion recorded by a camera. The length growth rate of the cornices reaches a maximum for wind speeds approximately 40 % higher than the threshold wind speed. Experimental results improve our understanding of the cornice formation process.
Pyei Phyo Lin, Isabel Peinke, Pascal Hagenmuller, Matthias Wächter, M. Reza Rahimi Tabar, and Joachim Peinke
The Cryosphere, 16, 4811–4822, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4811-2022, 2022
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Characterization of layers of snowpack with highly resolved micro-cone penetration tests leads to detailed fluctuating signals. We used advanced stochastic analysis to differentiate snow types by interpreting the signals as a mixture of continuous and discontinuous random fluctuations. These two types of fluctuation seem to correspond to different mechanisms of drag force generation during the experiments. The proposed methodology provides new insights into the characterization of snow layers.
Theodore Letcher, Julie Parno, Zoe Courville, Lauren Farnsworth, and Jason Olivier
The Cryosphere, 16, 4343–4361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4343-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4343-2022, 2022
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We present a radiative transfer model that uses ray tracing to determine optical properties from computer-generated 3D renderings of snow resolved at the microscale and to simulate snow spectral reflection and transmission for visible and near-infrared light. We expand ray-tracing techniques applied to sub-1 cm3 snow samples to model an entire snowpack column. The model is able to reproduce known snow surface optical properties, and simulations compare well against field observations.
Marcel Stefko, Silvan Leinss, Othmar Frey, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 16, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2859-2022, 2022
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The coherent backscatter opposition effect can enhance the intensity of radar backscatter from dry snow by up to a factor of 2. Despite widespread use of radar backscatter data by snow scientists, this effect has received notably little attention. For the first time, we characterize this effect for the Earth's snow cover with bistatic radar experiments from ground and from space. We are also able to retrieve scattering and absorbing lengths of snow at Ku- and X-band frequencies.
Rémi Granger, Frédéric Flin, Wolfgang Ludwig, Ismail Hammad, and Christian Geindreau
The Cryosphere, 15, 4381–4398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4381-2021, 2021
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In this study on temperature gradient metamorphism in snow, we investigate the hypothesis that there exists a favourable crystal orientation relative to the temperature gradient. We measured crystallographic orientations of the grains and their microstructural evolution during metamorphism using in situ time-lapse diffraction contrast tomography. Faceted crystals appear during the evolution, and we observe higher sublimation–deposition rates for grains with their c axis in the horizontal plane.
Marie Dumont, Frederic Flin, Aleksey Malinka, Olivier Brissaud, Pascal Hagenmuller, Philippe Lapalus, Bernard Lesaffre, Anne Dufour, Neige Calonne, Sabine Rolland du Roscoat, and Edward Ando
The Cryosphere, 15, 3921–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3921-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3921-2021, 2021
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The role of snow microstructure in snow optical properties is only partially understood despite the importance of snow optical properties for the Earth system. We present a dataset combining bidirectional reflectance measurements and 3D images of snow. We show that the snow reflectance is adequately simulated using the distribution of the ice chord lengths in the snow microstructure and that the impact of the morphological type of snow is especially important when ice is highly absorptive.
Kévin Fourteau, Florent Domine, and Pascal Hagenmuller
The Cryosphere, 15, 2739–2755, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2739-2021, 2021
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The thermal conductivity of snow is an important physical property governing the thermal regime of a snowpack and its substrate. We show that it strongly depends on the kinetics of water vapor sublimation and that previous experimental data suggest a rather fast kinetics. In such a case, neglecting water vapor leads to an underestimation of thermal conductivity by up to 50 % for light snow. Moreover, the diffusivity of water vapor in snow is then directly related to the thermal conductivity.
Wei Pu, Tenglong Shi, Jiecan Cui, Yang Chen, Yue Zhou, and Xin Wang
The Cryosphere, 15, 2255–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2255-2021, 2021
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We have explicitly resolved optical properties of coated BC in snow for explaining complex enhancement of snow albedo reduction due to coating effect in real environments. The parameterizations are developed for climate models to improve the understanding of BC in snow on global climate. We demonstrated that the contribution of BC coating effect to snow light absorption has exceeded dust over north China and will significantly contribute to the retreat of Arctic sea ice and Tibetan glaciers.
J. Melchior van Wessem, Christian R. Steger, Nander Wever, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 695–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, 2021
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This study presents the first modelled estimates of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) in Antarctica. PFAs are subsurface meltwater bodies that do not refreeze in winter due to the isolating effects of the snow they are buried underneath. They were first identified in Greenland, but conditions for their existence are also present in the Antarctic Peninsula. These PFAs can have important effects on meltwater retention, ice shelf stability, and, consequently, sea level rise.
Kévin Fourteau, Florent Domine, and Pascal Hagenmuller
The Cryosphere, 15, 389–406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-389-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-389-2021, 2021
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There has been a long controversy to determine whether the effective diffusion coefficient of water vapor in snow is superior to that in free air. Using theory and numerical modeling, we show that while water vapor diffuses more than inert gases thanks to its interaction with the ice, the effective diffusion coefficient of water vapor in snow remains inferior to that in free air. This suggests that other transport mechanisms are responsible for the large vapor fluxes observed in some snowpacks.
Fanny Larue, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Inès Ollivier, Clément Delcourt, Maxim Lamare, François Tuzet, Jesus Revuelto, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 14, 1651–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1651-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1651-2020, 2020
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The effect of surface roughness on snow albedo is often overlooked,
although a small change in albedo may strongly affect the surface energy
budget. By carving artificial roughness in an initially smooth snowpack,
we highlight albedo reductions of 0.03–0.04 at 700 nm and 0.06–0.10 at 1000 nm. A model using photon transport is developed to compute albedo considering roughness and applied to understand the impact of roughness as a function of snow properties and illumination conditions.
Colin R. Meyer, Kaitlin M. Keegan, Ian Baker, and Robert L. Hawley
The Cryosphere, 14, 1449–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1449-2020, 2020
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We describe snow compaction laboratory data with a new mathematical model. Using a compression device that is similar to a French press with snow instead of coffee grounds, Wang and Baker (2013) compacted numerous snow samples of different densities at a constant velocity to determine the force required for snow compaction. Our mathematical model for compaction includes airflow through snow and predicts the required force, in agreement with the experimental data.
Mathieu Schaer, Christophe Praz, and Alexis Berne
The Cryosphere, 14, 367–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-367-2020, 2020
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Wind and precipitation often occur together, making the distinction between particles coming from the atmosphere and those blown by the wind difficult. This is however a crucial task to accurately close the surface mass balance. We propose an algorithm based on Gaussian mixture models to separate blowing snow and precipitation in images collected by a Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC). The algorithm is trained and (positively) evaluated using data collected in the Swiss Alps and in Antarctica.
Philipp L. Rosendahl and Philipp Weißgraeber
The Cryosphere, 14, 115–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-115-2020, 2020
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Dry-snow slab avalanche release is preceded by a fracture process within the snowpack. Recognizing weak layer collapse as an integral part of the fracture process is crucial and explains phenomena such as whumpf sounds and remote triggering of avalanches from low-angle terrain. In this first part of the two-part work we propose a novel closed-form analytical model for a snowpack that provides a highly efficient and precise analysis of the mechanical response of a loaded snowpack.
Philipp L. Rosendahl and Philipp Weißgraeber
The Cryosphere, 14, 131–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-131-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-131-2020, 2020
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Dry-snow slab avalanche release is preceded by a fracture process within the snowpack. Recognizing weak layer collapse as an integral part of the fracture process is crucial and explains phenomena such as whumpf sounds and remote triggering of avalanches from low-angle terrain. In this second part of the two-part work we propose a novel mixed-mode coupled stress and energy failure criterion for nucleation of weak layer failure due to external loading of the snowpack.
Silvan Leinss, Henning Löwe, Martin Proksch, and Anna Kontu
The Cryosphere, 14, 51–75, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-51-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-51-2020, 2020
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The anisotropy of the snow microstructure, given by horizontally aligned ice crystals and vertically interlinked crystal chains, is a key quantity to understand mechanical, dielectric, and thermodynamical properties of snow. We present a model which describes the temporal evolution of the anisotropy. The model is driven by snow temperature, temperature gradient, and the strain rate. The model is calibrated by polarimetric radar data (CPD) and validated by computer tomographic 3-D snow images.
Pascal Hagenmuller, Frederic Flin, Marie Dumont, François Tuzet, Isabel Peinke, Philippe Lapalus, Anne Dufour, Jacques Roulle, Laurent Pézard, Didier Voisin, Edward Ando, Sabine Rolland du Roscoat, and Pascal Charrier
The Cryosphere, 13, 2345–2359, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2345-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2345-2019, 2019
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Light–absorbing particles (LAPs, e.g. dust or black carbon) in snow are a potent climate forcing agent. Their presence darkens the snow surface and leads to higher solar energy absorption. Several studies have quantified this radiative impact by assuming that LAPs were motionless in dry snow, without any clear evidence of this assumption. Using time–lapse X–ray tomography, we show that temperature gradient metamorphism of snow induces downward motion of LAPs, leading to self–cleaning of snow.
Francois Tuzet, Marie Dumont, Laurent Arnaud, Didier Voisin, Maxim Lamare, Fanny Larue, Jesus Revuelto, and Ghislain Picard
The Cryosphere, 13, 2169–2187, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2169-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2169-2019, 2019
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Here we present a novel method to estimate the impurity content (e.g. black carbon or mineral dust) in Alpine snow based on measurements of light extinction profiles. This method is proposed as an alternative to chemical measurements, allowing rapid retrievals of vertical concentrations of impurities in the snowpack. In addition, the results provide a better understanding of the impact of impurities on visible light extinction in snow.
Biagio Di Mauro, Roberto Garzonio, Micol Rossini, Gianluca Filippa, Paolo Pogliotti, Marta Galvagno, Umberto Morra di Cella, Mirco Migliavacca, Giovanni Baccolo, Massimiliano Clemenza, Barbara Delmonte, Valter Maggi, Marie Dumont, François Tuzet, Matthieu Lafaysse, Samuel Morin, Edoardo Cremonese, and Roberto Colombo
The Cryosphere, 13, 1147–1165, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1147-2019, 2019
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The snow albedo reduction due to dust from arid regions alters the melting dynamics of the snowpack, resulting in earlier snowmelt. We estimate up to 38 days of anticipated snow disappearance for a season that was characterized by a strong dust deposition event. This process has a series of further impacts. For example, earlier snowmelts may alter the hydrological cycle in the Alps, induce higher sensitivity to late summer drought, and finally impact vegetation and animal phenology.
Varun Sharma, Francesco Comola, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 12, 3499–3509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3499-2018, 2018
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The Thorpe-Mason (TM) model describes how an ice grain sublimates during aeolian transport. We revisit this classic model using simple numerical experiments and discover that for many common scenarios, the model is likely to underestimate the amount of ice loss. Extending this result to drifting and blowing snow using high-resolution turbulent flow simulations, the study shows that current estimates for ice loss due to sublimation in regions such as Antarctica need to be significantly updated.
Benjamin Birner, Christo Buizert, Till J. W. Wagner, and Jeffrey P. Severinghaus
The Cryosphere, 12, 2021–2037, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2021-2018, 2018
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Ancient air enclosed in bubbles of the Antarctic ice sheet is a key source of information about the Earth's past climate. However, a range of physical processes in the snow layer atop an ice sheet may change the trapped air's chemical composition before it is occluded in the ice. We developed the first detailed 2-D computer simulation of these processes and found a new method to improve the reconstruction of past climate from air in ice cores bubbles.
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Short summary
Ambient noise correlation is a broadly used method in seismology to monitor tiny changes in subsurface properties. Some environmental forcings may influence this method, including snow. During one winter season, we studied this snow effect on seismic velocity of the medium, recorded by a pair of seismic sensors. We detected and modeled a measurable effect during early snowfalls: the fresh new snow layer modifies rigidity and density of the medium, thus decreasing the recorded seismic velocity.
Ambient noise correlation is a broadly used method in seismology to monitor tiny changes in...