Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
The Cryosphere, 15, 5473–5482, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021
The Cryosphere, 15, 5473–5482, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021
Research article
08 Dec 2021
Research article | 08 Dec 2021

Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic

Jinlei Chen et al.

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Cited articles

Abe, M., Nozawa, T., Ogura, T., and Takata, K.: Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14343–14356, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14343-2016, 2016. 
AMSA: Arctic marine shipping assessment 2009 report, Arctic Council, available at: https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc949512/m2/1/high_res_d/AMSA_2009_Report_2nd_print.pdf (last access: 2 December 2021), 2009. 
Barnhart, K. R., Miller, C. R., Overeem, I., and Kay, J. E.: Mapping the future expansion of Arctic open water, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 280–285, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2848, 2015. 
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G., and Streletskiy, D. A.: Permafrost is warming at a global scale, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4, 2019. 
Box, J. E., Colgan, W. T., Christensen, T. R., Schmidt, N. M., Lund, M., and Parmentier, F.-J. W.: Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 045010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b, 2019. 
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Short summary
Sea ice is retreating with rapid warming in the Arctic. It will continue and approach the worst predicted pathway released by the IPCC. The irreversible tipping point might show around 2060 when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared. It has a huge impact on human production. Ordinary merchant ships will be able to pass the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage by the midcentury, and the opening time will advance to the next 10 years for icebreakers with moderate ice strengthening.