Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 08 Dec 2021
| 08 Dec 2021
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic
Jinlei Chen
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Shichang Kang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
Wentao Du
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Junming Guo
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Min Xu
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Yulan Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Xinyue Zhong
Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Northwest
Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Lanzhou 730000, China
Wei Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Jizu Chen
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sea Ice Extraction via Remote Sensing Imagery: Algorithms, Datasets, Applications and Challenges W. Huang et al. 10.3390/rs16050842
- Projected emissions and climate impacts of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.122848
- Impacts of Arctic Sea Fog on the Change of Route Planning and Navigational Efficiency in the Northeast Passage during the First Two Decades of the 21st Century K. Wang et al. 10.3390/jmse11112149
- A parametric study on the ice resistance of a ship sailing in pack ice based on CFD-DEM method X. Tang et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112563
- Direct measurements and CFD simulations on ice-induced hull pressure of a ship in floe ice fields K. Zhong et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113523
- Changes in the Arctic Traffic Occupancy and Their Connection to Sea Ice Conditions from 2015 to 2020 Y. Liu et al. 10.3390/rs16071157
- Accessibility in key areas of the Arctic in the 21st mid-century J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.011
- Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050 M. Mahmoud et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-53308-5
- Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 A. Wu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182
- The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors C. Min et al. 10.1029/2022GL099157
- Navigability of the Northern Sea Route for Arc7 ice-class vessels during winter and spring sea-ice conditions S. CHEN et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.005
- Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century Y. Zhang et al. 10.3390/jmse11122340
- Toward Quantifying the Increasing Accessibility of the Arctic Northeast Passage in the Past Four Decades C. Min et al. 10.1007/s00376-022-2040-3
- Insights into Diatom Substrate Preferences in the Inter-Tidal Zone of a Subarctic Coast E. Arseneault et al. 10.3390/hydrobiology2040036
- Projected changes in sea ice and the navigability of the Arctic Passages under global warming of 2 ℃ and 3 ℃ J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100349
- Routeview: an intelligent route planning system for ships sailing through Arctic ice zones based on big Earth data A. Wu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2022.2126016
- Statistical Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice Concentrations for Northern Sea Route Shipping D. Wu et al. 10.3390/app13074374
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sea Ice Extraction via Remote Sensing Imagery: Algorithms, Datasets, Applications and Challenges W. Huang et al. 10.3390/rs16050842
- Projected emissions and climate impacts of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.122848
- Impacts of Arctic Sea Fog on the Change of Route Planning and Navigational Efficiency in the Northeast Passage during the First Two Decades of the 21st Century K. Wang et al. 10.3390/jmse11112149
- A parametric study on the ice resistance of a ship sailing in pack ice based on CFD-DEM method X. Tang et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112563
- Direct measurements and CFD simulations on ice-induced hull pressure of a ship in floe ice fields K. Zhong et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113523
- Changes in the Arctic Traffic Occupancy and Their Connection to Sea Ice Conditions from 2015 to 2020 Y. Liu et al. 10.3390/rs16071157
- Accessibility in key areas of the Arctic in the 21st mid-century J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.011
- Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050 M. Mahmoud et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-53308-5
- Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 A. Wu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182
- The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors C. Min et al. 10.1029/2022GL099157
- Navigability of the Northern Sea Route for Arc7 ice-class vessels during winter and spring sea-ice conditions S. CHEN et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.005
- Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century Y. Zhang et al. 10.3390/jmse11122340
- Toward Quantifying the Increasing Accessibility of the Arctic Northeast Passage in the Past Four Decades C. Min et al. 10.1007/s00376-022-2040-3
- Insights into Diatom Substrate Preferences in the Inter-Tidal Zone of a Subarctic Coast E. Arseneault et al. 10.3390/hydrobiology2040036
- Projected changes in sea ice and the navigability of the Arctic Passages under global warming of 2 ℃ and 3 ℃ J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100349
- Routeview: an intelligent route planning system for ships sailing through Arctic ice zones based on big Earth data A. Wu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2022.2126016
- Statistical Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice Concentrations for Northern Sea Route Shipping D. Wu et al. 10.3390/app13074374
Latest update: 19 Apr 2024
Short summary
Sea ice is retreating with rapid warming in the Arctic. It will continue and approach the worst predicted pathway released by the IPCC. The irreversible tipping point might show around 2060 when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared. It has a huge impact on human production. Ordinary merchant ships will be able to pass the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage by the midcentury, and the opening time will advance to the next 10 years for icebreakers with moderate ice strengthening.
Sea ice is retreating with rapid warming in the Arctic. It will continue and approach the worst...
