Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 08 Dec 2021
| 08 Dec 2021
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic
Jinlei Chen
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Shichang Kang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
Wentao Du
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Junming Guo
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Min Xu
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Yulan Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Xinyue Zhong
Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Northwest
Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Lanzhou 730000, China
Wei Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
Jizu Chen
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of
Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,
China
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Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projected emissions and climate impacts of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.122848
- A parametric study on the ice resistance of a ship sailing in pack ice based on CFD-DEM method X. Tang et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112563
- Numerical investigations of the restriction effects on a ship navigating in pack-ice channel M. Zou et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2024.117968
- Overview of the studies on the interactions between atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the Arctic Ocean and its climatic effects: contributions from Chinese scientists R. Lei et al. 10.1007/s13131-025-2466-4
- Incorporating physical constraints in a deep learning framework for short-term daily prediction of sea ice concentration Q. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.apor.2024.104007
- Ships are projected to navigate whole year-round along the North Sea route by 2100 P. Zhao et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01557-7
- Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050 M. Mahmoud et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-53308-5
- The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors C. Min et al. 10.1029/2022GL099157
- Machine Learning-Based Binary Classification Models for Low Ice-Class Vessels Navigation Risk Assessment Y. Zhang et al. 10.3390/jmse13081408
- Navigability of the Northern Sea Route for Arc7 ice-class vessels during winter and spring sea-ice conditions S. CHEN et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.005
- Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century Y. Zhang et al. 10.3390/jmse11122340
- Insights into Diatom Substrate Preferences in the Inter-Tidal Zone of a Subarctic Coast E. Arseneault et al. 10.3390/hydrobiology2040036
- Study on ice resistance of Antarctic krill ship with trawl under floating ice sea conditions Z. Xiong et al. 10.3389/fmars.2024.1357331
- Routeview: an intelligent route planning system for ships sailing through Arctic ice zones based on big Earth data A. Wu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2022.2126016
- Statistical Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice Concentrations for Northern Sea Route Shipping D. Wu et al. 10.3390/app13074374
- Sea Ice Extraction via Remote Sensing Imagery: Algorithms, Datasets, Applications and Challenges W. Huang et al. 10.3390/rs16050842
- Impacts of Arctic Sea Fog on the Change of Route Planning and Navigational Efficiency in the Northeast Passage during the First Two Decades of the 21st Century K. Wang et al. 10.3390/jmse11112149
- Direct measurements and CFD simulations on ice-induced hull pressure of a ship in floe ice fields K. Zhong et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113523
- Atomic-level insights into ice melting induced by femtosecond laser energy deposition J. Song & Y. Lu 10.1016/j.icheatmasstransfer.2024.107802
- Numerical simulations of a ship sailing across pack ice area in forward motion under different drafts M. Zou et al. 10.1016/j.joes.2024.09.001
- Changes in the Arctic Traffic Occupancy and Their Connection to Sea Ice Conditions from 2015 to 2020 Y. Liu et al. 10.3390/rs16071157
- Accessibility in key areas of the Arctic in the 21st mid-century J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.011
- Navigability of Liquefied Natural Gas Carriers Along the Northern Sea Route L. Ma et al. 10.3390/jmse12122166
- Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 A. Wu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182
- Review of ship navigational safety in the Arctic Northwest passage P. Jiacai et al. 10.1016/j.rsma.2025.104229
- Toward Quantifying the Increasing Accessibility of the Arctic Northeast Passage in the Past Four Decades C. Min et al. 10.1007/s00376-022-2040-3
- Projected changes in sea ice and the navigability of the Arctic Passages under global warming of 2 ℃ and 3 ℃ J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100349
- Melting sea ice, changing naval geopolitics: The impacts of climate change in the maritime delimitations in the Arctic and the challenges to the UNCLOS E. Filippi & M. Deiró de Mello Neto 10.18601/16577558.n40.08
- Projected changes to Arctic shipping routes after stratospheric aerosol deployment in the ARISE-SAI scenarios A. Morrison et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1426679
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projected emissions and climate impacts of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.122848
- A parametric study on the ice resistance of a ship sailing in pack ice based on CFD-DEM method X. Tang et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112563
- Numerical investigations of the restriction effects on a ship navigating in pack-ice channel M. Zou et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2024.117968
- Overview of the studies on the interactions between atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the Arctic Ocean and its climatic effects: contributions from Chinese scientists R. Lei et al. 10.1007/s13131-025-2466-4
- Incorporating physical constraints in a deep learning framework for short-term daily prediction of sea ice concentration Q. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.apor.2024.104007
- Ships are projected to navigate whole year-round along the North Sea route by 2100 P. Zhao et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01557-7
- Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050 M. Mahmoud et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-53308-5
- The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors C. Min et al. 10.1029/2022GL099157
- Machine Learning-Based Binary Classification Models for Low Ice-Class Vessels Navigation Risk Assessment Y. Zhang et al. 10.3390/jmse13081408
- Navigability of the Northern Sea Route for Arc7 ice-class vessels during winter and spring sea-ice conditions S. CHEN et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.005
- Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century Y. Zhang et al. 10.3390/jmse11122340
- Insights into Diatom Substrate Preferences in the Inter-Tidal Zone of a Subarctic Coast E. Arseneault et al. 10.3390/hydrobiology2040036
- Study on ice resistance of Antarctic krill ship with trawl under floating ice sea conditions Z. Xiong et al. 10.3389/fmars.2024.1357331
- Routeview: an intelligent route planning system for ships sailing through Arctic ice zones based on big Earth data A. Wu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2022.2126016
- Statistical Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice Concentrations for Northern Sea Route Shipping D. Wu et al. 10.3390/app13074374
- Sea Ice Extraction via Remote Sensing Imagery: Algorithms, Datasets, Applications and Challenges W. Huang et al. 10.3390/rs16050842
- Impacts of Arctic Sea Fog on the Change of Route Planning and Navigational Efficiency in the Northeast Passage during the First Two Decades of the 21st Century K. Wang et al. 10.3390/jmse11112149
- Direct measurements and CFD simulations on ice-induced hull pressure of a ship in floe ice fields K. Zhong et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113523
- Atomic-level insights into ice melting induced by femtosecond laser energy deposition J. Song & Y. Lu 10.1016/j.icheatmasstransfer.2024.107802
- Numerical simulations of a ship sailing across pack ice area in forward motion under different drafts M. Zou et al. 10.1016/j.joes.2024.09.001
- Changes in the Arctic Traffic Occupancy and Their Connection to Sea Ice Conditions from 2015 to 2020 Y. Liu et al. 10.3390/rs16071157
- Accessibility in key areas of the Arctic in the 21st mid-century J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.011
- Navigability of Liquefied Natural Gas Carriers Along the Northern Sea Route L. Ma et al. 10.3390/jmse12122166
- Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065 A. Wu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182
- Review of ship navigational safety in the Arctic Northwest passage P. Jiacai et al. 10.1016/j.rsma.2025.104229
- Toward Quantifying the Increasing Accessibility of the Arctic Northeast Passage in the Past Four Decades C. Min et al. 10.1007/s00376-022-2040-3
- Projected changes in sea ice and the navigability of the Arctic Passages under global warming of 2 ℃ and 3 ℃ J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100349
- Melting sea ice, changing naval geopolitics: The impacts of climate change in the maritime delimitations in the Arctic and the challenges to the UNCLOS E. Filippi & M. Deiró de Mello Neto 10.18601/16577558.n40.08
- Projected changes to Arctic shipping routes after stratospheric aerosol deployment in the ARISE-SAI scenarios A. Morrison et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1426679
Latest update: 26 Jul 2025
Short summary
Sea ice is retreating with rapid warming in the Arctic. It will continue and approach the worst predicted pathway released by the IPCC. The irreversible tipping point might show around 2060 when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared. It has a huge impact on human production. Ordinary merchant ships will be able to pass the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage by the midcentury, and the opening time will advance to the next 10 years for icebreakers with moderate ice strengthening.
Sea ice is retreating with rapid warming in the Arctic. It will continue and approach the worst...
