Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic

Chen, Jinlei; Kang, Shichang; Du, Wentao; Guo, Junming; Xu, Min; Zhang, Yulan; Zhong, Xinyue; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Jizu

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021

Articles | Volume 15, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 12

Research article

|

08 Dec 2021

Research article |

| 08 Dec 2021

Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic

Jinlei Chen, Shichang Kang, Wentao Du, Junming Guo, Min Xu, Yulan Zhang, Xinyue Zhong, Wei Zhang, and Jizu Chen

Data sets

Sea Ice Index, Version 3 F. Fetterer, K. Knowles, W. N. Meier, M. Savoie, and A. K. Windnagel https://doi.org/10.7265/N5K072F8

CMIP6 project data World Climate Research Programme https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/

Short summary

Sea ice is retreating with rapid warming in the Arctic. It will continue and approach the worst predicted pathway released by the IPCC. The irreversible tipping point might show around 2060 when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared. It has a huge impact on human production. Ordinary merchant ships will be able to pass the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage by the midcentury, and the opening time will advance to the next 10 years for icebreakers with moderate ice strengthening.