Articles | Volume 15, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 07 Sep 2021
| 07 Sep 2021
Southern Ocean polynyas in CMIP6 models
Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Céline Heuzé
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Sebastiaan Swart
Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
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Céline Heuzé, Polona Itkin, Vladimir Ivanov, G. W. Kent Moore, Kazuki Nakata, Kay I. Ohshima, and Janna Rückert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3855, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
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Polynyas, openings in the sea ice, play a crucial role in the Arctic winter icescape, notably acting as breathing hole for the ecosystem, hunting ground for Indigenous communities, and comparatively safe navigation alternative. The Arctic being the region of the world changing fastest in response to climate change, we here review how polynyas and their impact on the climate have been changing too, and, for lack of adequate long-term observations or models, extrapolate their future.
Baylor Fox-Kemper, Patricia DeRepentigny, Anne Marie Treguier, Christian Stepanek, Eleanor O'Rourke, Chloe Mackallah, Alberto Meucci, Yevgeny Aksenov, Paul J. Durack, Nicole Feldl, Oluwayemi Garuba, Vanessa Hernaman, Céline Heuzé, Doroteaciro Iovino, Gaurav Madan, André L. Marquez, François Massonnet, Jenny Mecking, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Patrick C. Taylor, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6043–6078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6043-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6043-2026, 2026
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The ocean and sea ice are central to Earth's climate system, influencing global heat and carbon cycles, weather patterns, and sea level rise. Here the earth system model variables needed for studies of the ocean and sea ice are prioritized and requested. These requested variables were developed through an international, community-based process.
Céline Heuzé, Jonathan W. Rheinlænder, Tian Tian, and Carmen Hau Man Wong
The Cryosphere, 20, 3643–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3643-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3643-2026, 2026
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When the sea ice opens in winter in so-called “polynyas”, the entire climate system is affected from deep water ventilation to cloud formation, along with the ecosystem. In observations, winter Arctic polynyas have been increasing along with climate change. We here show that we cannot predict their future using global climate models as they do not represent winter Arctic polynyas correctly: they open over too large areas but too rarely, and for the wrong reason.
Céline Heuzé and Carmen Hau Man Wong
The Cryosphere, 19, 6043–6058, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6043-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6043-2025, 2025
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Polynyas are areas with no- or thin-ice within the ice pack. They play a crucial role for the Earth system, yet their monitoring in the Arctic is challenging because polynya detection is non-trivial. We here demonstrate that polynyas can successfully be detected with a novel, machine-learning based method. In fact, we argue that they are better detected than with traditional methods, which seem to fail as sea ice decreases because of climate change.
Céline Heuzé, Linn Carlstedt, Lea Poropat, and Heather Reese
Ocean Sci., 21, 1813–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1813-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1813-2025, 2025
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Extreme sea levels will worsen under climate change. In northern Europe, what drives these extreme events will not change, so determining these drivers is of use for planning coastal defences. Here, using two machine learning methods on hourly tide gauge and weather data at nine locations around the North and Baltic seas, we determine that the drivers of prolonged periods of high sea level are westerly winds, whereas the drivers of the most extreme peaks depend on the coastline geometry.
Flor Vermassen, Clare Bird, Tirza M. Weitkamp, Kate F. Darling, Hanna Farnelid, Céline Heuzé, Allison Y. Hsiang, Salar Karam, Christian Stranne, Marcus Sundbom, and Helen K. Coxall
Biogeosciences, 22, 2261–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2261-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2261-2025, 2025
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We provide the first systematic survey of planktonic foraminifera in the high Arctic Ocean. Our results describe the abundance and species composition under summer sea ice. They indicate that the polar specialist N. pachyderma is the only species present, with subpolar species absent. The data set will be a valuable reference for continued monitoring of the state of planktonic foraminifera communities as they respond to the ongoing sea-ice decline and the “Atlantification” of the Arctic Ocean.
Salar Karam, Céline Heuzé, Mario Hoppmann, and Laura de Steur
Ocean Sci., 20, 917–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-917-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-917-2024, 2024
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A long-term mooring array in the Fram Strait allows for an evaluation of decadal trends in temperature in this major oceanic gateway into the Arctic. Since the 1980s, the deep waters of the Greenland Sea and the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic have warmed rapidly at a rate of 0.11°C and 0.05°C per decade, respectively, at a depth of 2500 m. We show that the temperatures of the two basins converged around 2017 and that the deep waters of the Greenland Sea are now a heat source for the Arctic Ocean.
Lea Poropat, Dani Jones, Simon D. A. Thomas, and Céline Heuzé
Ocean Sci., 20, 201–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-201-2024, 2024
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In this study we use a machine learning method called a Gaussian mixture model to divide part of the ocean (northwestern European seas and part of the Atlantic Ocean) into regions based on satellite observations of sea level. This helps us study each of these regions separately and learn more about what causes sea level changes there. We find that the ocean is first divided based on bathymetry and then based on other features such as water masses and typical atmospheric conditions.
Céline Heuzé, Oliver Huhn, Maren Walter, Natalia Sukhikh, Salar Karam, Wiebke Körtke, Myriel Vredenborg, Klaus Bulsiewicz, Jürgen Sültenfuß, Ying-Chih Fang, Christian Mertens, Benjamin Rabe, Sandra Tippenhauer, Jacob Allerholt, Hailun He, David Kuhlmey, Ivan Kuznetsov, and Maria Mallet
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5517-2023, 2023
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Gases dissolved in the ocean water not used by the ecosystem (or "passive tracers") are invaluable to track water over long distances and investigate the processes that modify its properties. Unfortunately, especially so in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, such gas measurements are sparse. We here present a data set of several passive tracers (anthropogenic gases, noble gases and their isotopes) collected over the full ocean depth, weekly, during the 1-year drift in the Arctic during MOSAiC.
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
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Short summary
Polynyas are large open-water areas within the sea ice. We developed a method to estimate their area, distribution and frequency for the Southern Ocean in climate models and observations. All models have polynyas along the coast but few do so in the open ocean, in contrast to observations. We examine potential atmospheric and oceanic drivers of open-water polynyas and discuss recently implemented schemes that may have improved some models' polynya representation.
Polynyas are large open-water areas within the sea ice. We developed a method to estimate their...
