Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
Research article
 | 
26 Jan 2021
Research article |  | 26 Jan 2021

Year-round impact of winter sea ice thickness observations on seasonal forecasts

Beena Balan-Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay, Tim Stockdale, and Frederic Vitart

Related authors

Subpolar Atlantic meridional heat transports from OSNAP and ocean reanalyses – a comparison
Susanna Winkelbauer, Isabella Winterer, Michael Mayer, Yao Fu, and Leopold Haimberger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4093,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4093, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Assessing subseasonal forecast skill for use in predicting US coastal inundation risk
John R. Albers, Matthew Newman, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, William Sweet, Yan Wang, and Tongtong Xu
Ocean Sci., 21, 1761–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1761-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1761-2025, 2025
Short summary
The role of the stratospheric state in upward wave flux prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: a SNAPSI analysis
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Amy H. Butler, Peter Hitchcock, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zac D. Lawrence, Wuhan Ning, Philip Rupp, Zheng Wu, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Natalia Calvo, Álvaro de la Cámara, Martin Jucker, Gerbrand Koren, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gloria L. Manney, Marisol Osman, Masakazu Taguchi, Cory Barton, Dong-Chang Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Jeff Knight, Piero Malguzzi, Daniele Mastrangelo, Jiyoung Oh, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Isla R. Simpson, Seok-Woo Son, Damien Specq, and Tim Stockdale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3611,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3611, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Marine data assimilation in the UK: the past, the present, and the vision for the future
Jozef Skákala, David Ford, Keith Haines, Amos Lawless, Matthew J. Martin, Philip Browne, Marcin Chrust, Stefano Ciavatta, Alison Fowler, Daniel Lea, Matthew Palmer, Andrea Rochner, Jennifer Waters, Hao Zuo, Deep S. Banerjee, Mike Bell, Davi M. Carneiro, Yumeng Chen, Susan Kay, Dale Partridge, Martin Price, Richard Renshaw, Georgy Shapiro, and James While
Ocean Sci., 21, 1709–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1709-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1709-2025, 2025
Short summary
Indications of improved seasonal sea level forecasts for the United States Gulf Coast and East Coast using ocean dynamic persistence
Xue Feng, Matthew J. Widlansky, Tong Lee, Ou Wang, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Gregory Dusek, William Sweet, and Malte F. Stuecker
Ocean Sci., 21, 1663–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1663-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1663-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Allard, R. A., Farrell, S. L., Hebert, D. A., Johnston, W. F., Li, L., Kurtz, N. T., Phelps, M. W., Posey, P. G., Tilling, R., Ridout, A., and Wallcraft, A. J.: Utilizing CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness to initialize a coupled ice-ocean modeling system, Adv. Space Res., 62, 1265–1280, 2018. a
Balan-Sarojini, B., Tietsche, S., Mayer, M., Balmaseda, M., and Zuo, H.: Towards improved sea ice initialization and forecasting with the IFS, https://doi.org/10.21957/mt6m6rpwt, 2019. a, b
Balmaseda, M., Hernandez, F., Storto, A., Palmer, M., Alves, O., Shi, L., Smith, G., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M., Barnier, B., Behringer, D., Boyer, T., Chang, Y.-S., Chepurin, G., Ferry, N., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Good, S., Guinehut, S., Haines, K., Ishikawa, Y., Keeley, S., Köhl, A., Lee, T., Martin, M., Masina, S., Masuda, S., Meyssignac, B., Mogensen, K., Parent, L., Peterson, K., Tang, Y., Yin, Y., Vernieres, G., Wang, X., Waters, J., Wedd, R., Wang, O., Xue, Y., Chevallier, M., Lemieux, J.-F., Dupont, F., Kuragano, T., Kamachi, M., Awaji, T., Caltabiano, A., Wilmer-Becker, K., and Gaillard, F.: The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP), J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8, s80–s97, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329, 2015. a
Balmaseda, M. A., Ferranti, L., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N.: Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1655–1664, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.661, 2010. a
Batrak, Y. and Müller, M.: On the warm bias in atmospheric reanalyses induced by the missing snow over Arctic sea-ice, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–8, 2019. a
Download
Short summary
Our study for the first time shows the impact of measured sea ice thickness (SIT) on seasonal forecasts of all the seasons. We prove that the long-term memory present in the Arctic winter SIT is helpful to improve summer sea ice forecasts. Our findings show that realistic SIT initial conditions to start a forecast are useful in (1) improving seasonal forecasts, (2) understanding errors in the forecast model, and (3) recognizing the need for continuous monitoring of world's ice-covered oceans.
Share