Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
Research article
 | 
26 Jan 2021
Research article |  | 26 Jan 2021

Year-round impact of winter sea ice thickness observations on seasonal forecasts

Beena Balan-Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay, Tim Stockdale, and Frederic Vitart

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Cited articles

Allard, R. A., Farrell, S. L., Hebert, D. A., Johnston, W. F., Li, L., Kurtz, N. T., Phelps, M. W., Posey, P. G., Tilling, R., Ridout, A., and Wallcraft, A. J.: Utilizing CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness to initialize a coupled ice-ocean modeling system, Adv. Space Res., 62, 1265–1280, 2018. a
Balan-Sarojini, B., Tietsche, S., Mayer, M., Balmaseda, M., and Zuo, H.: Towards improved sea ice initialization and forecasting with the IFS, https://doi.org/10.21957/mt6m6rpwt, 2019. a, b
Balmaseda, M., Hernandez, F., Storto, A., Palmer, M., Alves, O., Shi, L., Smith, G., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M., Barnier, B., Behringer, D., Boyer, T., Chang, Y.-S., Chepurin, G., Ferry, N., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Good, S., Guinehut, S., Haines, K., Ishikawa, Y., Keeley, S., Köhl, A., Lee, T., Martin, M., Masina, S., Masuda, S., Meyssignac, B., Mogensen, K., Parent, L., Peterson, K., Tang, Y., Yin, Y., Vernieres, G., Wang, X., Waters, J., Wedd, R., Wang, O., Xue, Y., Chevallier, M., Lemieux, J.-F., Dupont, F., Kuragano, T., Kamachi, M., Awaji, T., Caltabiano, A., Wilmer-Becker, K., and Gaillard, F.: The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP), J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8, s80–s97, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329, 2015. a
Balmaseda, M. A., Ferranti, L., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N.: Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1655–1664, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.661, 2010. a
Batrak, Y. and Müller, M.: On the warm bias in atmospheric reanalyses induced by the missing snow over Arctic sea-ice, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–8, 2019. a
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Short summary
Our study for the first time shows the impact of measured sea ice thickness (SIT) on seasonal forecasts of all the seasons. We prove that the long-term memory present in the Arctic winter SIT is helpful to improve summer sea ice forecasts. Our findings show that realistic SIT initial conditions to start a forecast are useful in (1) improving seasonal forecasts, (2) understanding errors in the forecast model, and (3) recognizing the need for continuous monitoring of world's ice-covered oceans.