Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
Research article
 | 
26 Jan 2021
Research article |  | 26 Jan 2021

Year-round impact of winter sea ice thickness observations on seasonal forecasts

Beena Balan-Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay, Tim Stockdale, and Frederic Vitart

Related authors

StraitFlux – precise computations of water strait fluxes on various modeling grids
Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, and Leopold Haimberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4603–4620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4603-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5/NEMOv3.4
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Alexei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Domokos Sármány, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-913,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-913, 2024
Short summary
Precursors and pathways: Dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-415,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-415, 2024
Short summary
Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system
Eric de Boisséson and Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
Ocean Sci., 20, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin De Kauwe, Sam Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Discipline: Sea ice | Subject: Arctic (e.g. Greenland)
Improving short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning
Cyril Palerme, Thomas Lavergne, Jozef Rusin, Arne Melsom, Julien Brajard, Are Frode Kvanum, Atle Macdonald Sørensen, Laurent Bertino, and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 18, 2161–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Retrieval of sea ice drift in the Fram Strait based on data from Chinese satellite HaiYang (HY-1D)
Dunwang Lu, Jianqiang Liu, Lijian Shi, Tao Zeng, Bin Cheng, Suhui Wu, and Manman Wang
The Cryosphere, 18, 1419–1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1419-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Sea-ice variations and trends during the Common Era in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean
Ana Lúcia Lindroth Dauner, Frederik Schenk, Katherine Elizabeth Power, and Maija Heikkilä
The Cryosphere, 18, 1399–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1399-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1399-2024, 2024
Short summary
Melt pond fractions on Arctic summer sea ice retrieved from Sentinel-3 satellite data with a constrained physical forward model
Hannah Niehaus, Larysa Istomina, Marcel Nicolaus, Ran Tao, Aleksey Malinka, Eleonora Zege, and Gunnar Spreen
The Cryosphere, 18, 933–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-933-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-933-2024, 2024
Short summary
Extent, duration and timing of the sea ice cover in Hornsund, Svalbard, from 2014–2023
Zuzanna M. Swirad, A. Malin Johansson, and Eirik Malnes
The Cryosphere, 18, 895–910, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-895-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-895-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Allard, R. A., Farrell, S. L., Hebert, D. A., Johnston, W. F., Li, L., Kurtz, N. T., Phelps, M. W., Posey, P. G., Tilling, R., Ridout, A., and Wallcraft, A. J.: Utilizing CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness to initialize a coupled ice-ocean modeling system, Adv. Space Res., 62, 1265–1280, 2018. a
Balan-Sarojini, B., Tietsche, S., Mayer, M., Balmaseda, M., and Zuo, H.: Towards improved sea ice initialization and forecasting with the IFS, https://doi.org/10.21957/mt6m6rpwt, 2019. a, b
Balmaseda, M., Hernandez, F., Storto, A., Palmer, M., Alves, O., Shi, L., Smith, G., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M., Barnier, B., Behringer, D., Boyer, T., Chang, Y.-S., Chepurin, G., Ferry, N., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Good, S., Guinehut, S., Haines, K., Ishikawa, Y., Keeley, S., Köhl, A., Lee, T., Martin, M., Masina, S., Masuda, S., Meyssignac, B., Mogensen, K., Parent, L., Peterson, K., Tang, Y., Yin, Y., Vernieres, G., Wang, X., Waters, J., Wedd, R., Wang, O., Xue, Y., Chevallier, M., Lemieux, J.-F., Dupont, F., Kuragano, T., Kamachi, M., Awaji, T., Caltabiano, A., Wilmer-Becker, K., and Gaillard, F.: The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP), J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8, s80–s97, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329, 2015. a
Balmaseda, M. A., Ferranti, L., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N.: Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1655–1664, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.661, 2010. a
Batrak, Y. and Müller, M.: On the warm bias in atmospheric reanalyses induced by the missing snow over Arctic sea-ice, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–8, 2019. a
Download
Short summary
Our study for the first time shows the impact of measured sea ice thickness (SIT) on seasonal forecasts of all the seasons. We prove that the long-term memory present in the Arctic winter SIT is helpful to improve summer sea ice forecasts. Our findings show that realistic SIT initial conditions to start a forecast are useful in (1) improving seasonal forecasts, (2) understanding errors in the forecast model, and (3) recognizing the need for continuous monitoring of world's ice-covered oceans.