Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jan 2021
Research article |
| 26 Jan 2021
| 26 Jan 2021
Year-round impact of winter sea ice thickness observations on seasonal forecasts
Beena Balan-Sarojini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Rd, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
Steffen Tietsche
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Rd, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
Michael Mayer
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Rd, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Magdalena Balmaseda
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Rd, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Rd, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
Patricia de Rosnay
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Rd, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
Tim Stockdale
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Rd, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
Frederic Vitart
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Rd, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Understanding the Forecast Skill of Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Subseasonal Time Scales M. McGraw et al.
- A multi-frequency altimetry snow depth product over Arctic sea ice A. Carret et al.
- Monthly Arctic Sea‐Ice Prediction With a Linear Inverse Model M. Brennan et al.
- A Bayesian approach towards daily pan-Arctic sea ice freeboard estimates from combined CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 satellite observations W. Gregory et al.
- Regime-dependence when constraining a sea ice model with observations: lessons from a single-column perspective M. Wieringa & C. Bitz
- The Challenge of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Prediction by ECMWF on Subseasonal Time Scales Y. Xiu et al.
- Data-driven surrogate modeling of high-resolution sea-ice thickness in the Arctic C. Durand et al.
- Examining the sensitivity of ECMWF IFS weather forecasts to sea‐ice coupling for the summer‐time Arctic and cyclones H. Croad et al.
- Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J. Acosta Navarro et al.
- Bounded and categorized: targeting data assimilation for sea ice fractional coverage and nonnegative quantities in a single-column multi-category sea ice model M. Wieringa et al.
- Assimilation of radar freeboard and snow altimetry observations in the Arctic and Antarctic with a coupled ocean/sea ice modelling system A. Chenal et al.
- Network connectivity between the winter Arctic Oscillation and summer sea ice in CMIP6 models and observations W. Gregory et al.
- Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 J. Han et al.
- Achieving reliable rainfall forecasting through ensemble deep learning, fuzzy systems, and advanced feature selection B. Akinsehinde et al.
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Understanding the Forecast Skill of Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Subseasonal Time Scales M. McGraw et al.
- A multi-frequency altimetry snow depth product over Arctic sea ice A. Carret et al.
- Monthly Arctic Sea‐Ice Prediction With a Linear Inverse Model M. Brennan et al.
- A Bayesian approach towards daily pan-Arctic sea ice freeboard estimates from combined CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 satellite observations W. Gregory et al.
- Regime-dependence when constraining a sea ice model with observations: lessons from a single-column perspective M. Wieringa & C. Bitz
- The Challenge of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Prediction by ECMWF on Subseasonal Time Scales Y. Xiu et al.
- Data-driven surrogate modeling of high-resolution sea-ice thickness in the Arctic C. Durand et al.
- Examining the sensitivity of ECMWF IFS weather forecasts to sea‐ice coupling for the summer‐time Arctic and cyclones H. Croad et al.
- Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J. Acosta Navarro et al.
- Bounded and categorized: targeting data assimilation for sea ice fractional coverage and nonnegative quantities in a single-column multi-category sea ice model M. Wieringa et al.
- Assimilation of radar freeboard and snow altimetry observations in the Arctic and Antarctic with a coupled ocean/sea ice modelling system A. Chenal et al.
- Network connectivity between the winter Arctic Oscillation and summer sea ice in CMIP6 models and observations W. Gregory et al.
- Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 J. Han et al.
- Achieving reliable rainfall forecasting through ensemble deep learning, fuzzy systems, and advanced feature selection B. Akinsehinde et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 May 2026
Short summary
Our study for the first time shows the impact of measured sea ice thickness (SIT) on seasonal forecasts of all the seasons. We prove that the long-term memory present in the Arctic winter SIT is helpful to improve summer sea ice forecasts. Our findings show that realistic SIT initial conditions to start a forecast are useful in (1) improving seasonal forecasts, (2) understanding errors in the forecast model, and (3) recognizing the need for continuous monitoring of world's ice-covered oceans.
Our study for the first time shows the impact of measured sea ice thickness (SIT) on seasonal...
