Articles | Volume 15, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 08 Jul 2021
| 08 Jul 2021
Twentieth century global glacier mass change: an ensemble-based model reconstruction
Climate Lab, Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Ben Marzeion
Climate Lab, Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Related authors
Denise Cáceres, Ben Marzeion, Jan Hendrik Malles, Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1057–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The oceans are typically darker than land surfaces. Expanding oceans through sea-level rise may thus lead to a darker planet Earth, reflecting less sunlight. The additionally absorbed sunlight may heat planet Earth, leading to further sea-level rise. Here, we provide a rough estimate of the strength of this feedback: it turns out to be very weak, but clearly positive, thereby destabilizing the Earth system.
Gerard H. Roe, John Erich Christian, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
Denise Cáceres, Ben Marzeion, Jan Hendrik Malles, Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Fabien Maussion, Anton Butenko, Nicolas Champollion, Matthias Dusch, Julia Eis, Kévin Fourteau, Philipp Gregor, Alexander H. Jarosch, Johannes Landmann, Felix Oesterle, Beatriz Recinos, Timo Rothenpieler, Anouk Vlug, Christian T. Wild, and Ben Marzeion
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM; www.oggm.org), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Riccardo E. M. Riva, Thomas Frederikse, Matt A. King, Ben Marzeion, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 1327–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The reduction of ice masses stored on land has made an important contribution to sea-level rise over the last century, as well as changed the Earth's shape. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have varied strongly throughout the last century, which affects the interpretation and extrapolation of recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.
B. Marzeion, P. W. Leclercq, J. G. Cogley, and A. H. Jarosch
The Cryosphere, 9, 2399–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2399-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We show that estimates of global glacier mass change during the 20th century, obtained from glacier-length-based reconstructions and from a glacier model driven by gridded climate observations are now consistent with each other and also with an estimate for the years 2003-2009 that is mostly based on remotely sensed data. This consistency is found throughout the entire common periods of the respective data sets. Inconsistencies of reconstructions and observations persist on regional scales.
F. Maussion, W. Gurgiser, M. Großhauser, G. Kaser, and B. Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 9, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using a newly developed open-source tool, we downscale the glacier surface energy and mass balance fluxes at Shallap Glacier. This allows an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on a tropical glacier at climatological time scales (1980-2013). We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported and provide keys to understand its mechanism.
M. Hofer, B. Marzeion, and T. Mölg
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 579–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-579-2015, 2015
B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch, and J. M. Gregory
The Cryosphere, 8, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, 2014
W. Gurgiser, B. Marzeion, L. Nicholson, M. Ortner, and G. Kaser
The Cryosphere, 7, 1787–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1787-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1787-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Glaciers | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf
Reconciling ice dynamics and bed topography with a versatile and fast ice thickness inversion
Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia
Modelling the development and decay of cryoconite holes in northwestern Greenland
Thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier in the inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan
Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single-glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia
The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile
Modelling steady states and the transient response of debris-covered glaciers
Mapping the age of ice of Gauligletscher combining surface radionuclide contamination and ice flow modeling
Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE
Brief communication: Time step dependence (and fixes) in Stokes simulations of calving ice shelves
Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing
Deep learning applied to glacier evolution modelling
Initialization of a global glacier model based on present-day glacier geometry and past climate information: an ensemble approach
Contrasting thinning patterns between lake- and land-terminating glaciers in the Bhutanese Himalaya
Impact of frontal ablation on the ice thickness estimation of marine-terminating glaciers in Alaska
Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model
Buoyant forces promote tidewater glacier iceberg calving through large basal stress concentrations
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Yukihiko Onuma, Koji Fujita, Nozomu Takeuchi, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 17, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in cryoconite hole (CH) depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole shape geometry. The simulations suggest that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the wind speed. The meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent ice surface darkening via the redistribution of CHs.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Loris Compagno, Matthias Huss, Evan Stewart Miles, Michael James McCarthy, Harry Zekollari, Amaury Dehecq, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1697–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution. We implement the module into a combined mass-balance ice-flow model, and we apply it using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia. We show that glacier geometry, volume, and flow velocity evolve differently when modelling explicitly debris cover compared to glacier evolution without the debris-cover module, demonstrating the importance of accounting for debris.
Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flández, Deniz Bozkurt, and Ralf Greve
The Cryosphere, 15, 3637–3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the current state and future evolution of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile (40°S, 72°W) with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. Under different global warming scenarios, we project ice mass losses between 56 % and 97 % by the end of the 21st century. We quantify the uncertainties based on an ensemble of climate models and on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium line altitude. Our results suggest a considerable deglaciation in southern Chile in the next 80 years.
James C. Ferguson and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 3377–3399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Debris-covered glaciers have a greater extent than their debris-free counterparts due to insulation from the debris cover. However, the transient response to climate change remains poorly understood. We use a numerical model that couples ice dynamics and debris transport and varies the climate signal. We find that debris cover delays the transient response, especially for the extent. However, adding cryokarst features near the terminus greatly enhances the response.
Guillaume Jouvet, Stefan Röllin, Hans Sahli, José Corcho, Lars Gnägi, Loris Compagno, Dominik Sidler, Margit Schwikowski, Andreas Bauder, and Martin Funk
The Cryosphere, 14, 4233–4251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We show that plutonium is an effective tracer to identify ice originating from the early 1960s at the surface of a mountain glacier after a long time within the ice flow, giving unique information on the long-term former ice motion. Combined with ice flow modelling, the dating can be extended to the entire glacier, and we show that an airplane which crash-landed on the Gauligletscher in 1946 will likely soon be released from the ice close to the place where pieces have emerged in recent years.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Brandon Berg and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3209–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models of ice sheets and glaciers are an important component of projecting sea level rise due to climate change. For models that seek to simulate the full balance of forces within the ice, if portions of the glacier are allowed to quickly break off in a process called iceberg calving, a numerical issue arises that can cause inaccurate results. We examine the issue and propose a solution so that future models can more accurately predict the future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, Cristian Proistosescu, Gerard Roe, Michelle Koutnik, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
Jordi Bolibar, Antoine Rabatel, Isabelle Gouttevin, Clovis Galiez, Thomas Condom, and Eric Sauquet
The Cryosphere, 14, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel approach for simulating glacier mass balances using a deep artificial neural network (i.e. deep learning) from climate and topographical data. This has been added as a component of a new open-source parameterized glacier evolution model. Deep learning is found to outperform linear machine learning methods, mainly due to its nonlinearity. Potential applications range from regional mass balance reconstructions from observations to simulations for past and future climates.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Shun Tsutaki, Koji Fujita, Takayuki Nuimura, Akiko Sakai, Shin Sugiyama, Jiro Komori, and Phuntsho Tshering
The Cryosphere, 13, 2733–2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate thickness change of Bhutanese glaciers during 2004–2011 using repeat GPS surveys and satellite-based observations. The thinning rate of Lugge Glacier (LG) is > 3 times that of Thorthormi Glacier (TG). Numerical simulations of ice dynamics and surface mass balance (SMB) demonstrate that the rapid thinning of LG is driven by both negative SMB and dynamic thinning, while the thinning of TG is minimised by a longitudinally compressive flow regime.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Cited articles
Bahr, D. B.: Global distributions of glacier properties: A stochastic scaling
paradigm, Water Resour. Res., 33, 1669–1679,
https://doi.org/10.1029/97WR00824, 1997. a
Bahr, D. B., Meier, M. F., and Peckham, S. D.: The physical basis of glacier
volume-area scaling, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 102,
20355–20362, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JB01696, 1997. a
Bahr, D. B., Pfeffer, W. T., and Kaser, G.: A review of volume-area scaling of glaciers, Rev. Geophys., 53, 95–140, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000470,
2015. a, b, c
Bamber, J. L., Westaway, R. M., Marzeion, B., and Wouters, B.: The land ice
contribution to sea level during the satellite era, Environ. Res.
Lett., 13, 063008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f0, 2018. a, b, c
Ciracì, E., Velicogna, I., and Swenson, S.: Continuity of the Mass Loss of the World's Glaciers and Ice Caps From the GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Missions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086926, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086926, 2020. a, b, c
Cogley, J. G.: Geodetic and direct mass-balance measurements: comparison and
joint analysis, Ann. Glaciol., 50, 96–100,
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756409787769744, 2009. a, b
Cruz, R., Harasawa, H., Lal, M., Wu, S., Anokhin, Y., Punsalmaa, B., Honda, Y., Jafari, M., Li, C., and Huu Ninh, N.: Asia. Climate change 2007: impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, J. Environ. Qual., 37, 2407–2407, https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2008.0015br, 2007. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park,
B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart,
F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Eis, J., Maussion, F., and Marzeion, B.: Initialization of a global glacier model based on present-day glacier geometry and past climate information: an ensemble approach, The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019. a, b
Eis, J., van der Laan, L., Maussion, F., and Marzeion, B.: Reconstruction of
Past Glacier Changes with an Ice-Flow Glacier Model: Proof of Concept and
Validation, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 77,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.595755, 2021. a, b
Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Fürst, J. J., Landmann, J., Machguth, H.,
Maussion, F., and Pandit, A.: A consensus estimate for the ice thickness
distribution of all glaciers on Earth, Nat. Geosci., 12, 168–173,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0300-3, 2019. a
Frederikse, T., Landerer, F., Caron, L., Adhikari, S., Parkes, D., Humphrey,
V. W., Dangendorf, S., Hogarth, P., Zanna, L., Cheng, L., and Wu, Y.-H.: The
causes of sea-level rise since 1900, Nature, 584, 393–397,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2591-3, 2020. a
Gardner, A. S., Moholdt, G., Cogley, J. G., Wouters, B., Arendt, A. A., Wahr,
J., Berthier, E., Hock, R., Pfeffer, W. T., Kaser, G., Ligtenberg, S. R. M.,
Bolch, T., Sharp, M. J., Hagen, J. O., van den Broeke, M. R., and Paul, F.: A
Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009,
Science, 340, 852–857, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1234532, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L.,
Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K.,
Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A.,
da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D.,
Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert,
S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis
for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30,
5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017. a
Giesen, R. H. and Oerlemans, J.: Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise, Clim. Dynam., 41, 3283–3300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1743-7, 2013. a
Gleckler, P. J., Taylor, K. E., and Doutriaux, C.: Performance metrics for
climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D06104,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008972, 2008. a
Goosse, H., Barriat, P.-Y., Dalaiden, Q., Klein, F., Marzeion, B., Maussion, F., Pelucchi, P., and Vlug, A.: Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018. a
Harris, I. and Jones, P.: CRU TS4.03: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) version 4.03 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901- Dec. 2018), Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, https://doi.org/10.5285/10d3e3640f004c578403419aac167d82, 2020. a
Harris, I., Jones, P., Osborn, T., and Lister, D.: Updated high-resolution
grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset,
Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623–642,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711, 2014. a
Harrison, W. D., Elsberg, D. H., Echelmeyer, K. A., and Krimmel, R. M.: On the characterization of glacier response by a single time-scale, J.
Glaciol., 47, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756501781831837, 2001. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S, and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hirabayashi, Y., Zang, Y., Watanabe, S., Koirala, S., and Kanae, S.: Projection of glacier mass changes under a high-emission climate scenario using the global glacier model HYOGA2, Hydrological Research Letters, 7, 6–11, https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.7.6, 2013. a
Hourdin, F., Mauritsen, T., Gettelman, A., Golaz, J.-C., Balaji, V., Duan, Q., Folini, D., Ji, D., Klocke, D., Qian, Y., Rauser, F., Rio, C., Tomassini, L., Watanabe, M., and Williamson, D.: The Art and Science of Climate Model
Tuning, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 589–602,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1, 2017. a
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier
mass loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 135–140,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x, 2018. a
Huss, M., Hock, R., Bauder, A., and Funk, M.: Conventional versus
reference-surface mass balance, J. Glaciol., 58, 278–286,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J216, 2012. a
Jacob, T., Wahr, J., Pfeffer, W. T., and Swenson, S.: Recent contributions of
glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise, Nature, 482, 514–518,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10847, 2012. a, b
Kaser, G., Großhauser, M., and Marzeion, B.: Contribution potential of
glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 20223–20227,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008162107, 2010. a
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y. Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Takahashi, K.: The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 93, 5–48,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015. a
Laloyaux, P., de Boisseson, E., Balmaseda, M., Bidlot, J.-R., Broennimann, S., Buizza, R., Dalhgren, P., Dee, D., Haimberger, L., Hersbach, H., Kosaka, Y., Martin, M., Poli, P., Rayner, N., Rustemeier, E., and Schepers, D.: CERA-20C: A Coupled Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 1172–1195, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001273, 2018. a
Leclercq, P. W., Oerlemans, J., and Cogley, J. G.: Estimating the Glacier
Contribution to Sea-Level Rise for the Period 1800–2005, Surv.
Geophys., 32, 519, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9121-7, 2011. a, b
Malles, J.-H. and Marzeion, B.: Ensemble of 20th century global glacier mass change model reconstruction results, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.931657, 2021. a
Marler, R. and Arora, J.: Survey of multi-objective optimization methods for
engineering, Struct. Multidiscip. O., 26, 369–395,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00158-003-0368-6, 2004. a
Marzeion, B., Leclercq, P. W., Cogley, J. G., and Jarosch, A. H.: Brief Communication: Global reconstructions of glacier mass change during the 20th century are consistent, The Cryosphere, 9, 2399–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2399-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Marzeion, B., Champollion, N., Haeberli, W., Langley, K., Leclercq, P., and
Paul, F.: Observation-Based Estimates of Global Glacier Mass Change and Its
Contribution to Sea-Level Change, Surv. Geophys., 38, 105–130,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9394-y, 2017. a
Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Anderson, B., Bliss, A., Champollion, N., Fujita, K.,
Huss, M., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P., Malles, J.-H., Maussion, F.,
Radić, V., Rounce, D. R., Sakai, A., Shannon, S., van de Wal, R., and
Zekollari, H.: Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global
Glacier Mass Change, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001470, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470, 2020. a, b, c, d, e
Maussion, F., Butenko, A., Champollion, N., Dusch, M., Eis, J., Fourteau, K., Gregor, P., Jarosch, A. H., Landmann, J., Oesterle, F., Recinos, B., Rothenpieler, T., Vlug, A., Wild, C. T., and Marzeion, B.: The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019. a
New, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P.: Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time
Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly
Terrestrial Climatology, J. Climate, 12, 829–856,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0829:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
New, M., Lister, D., Hulme, M., and Ian Makin, I.: A high-resolution data set
of surface climate over global land areas, Clim. Res., 21, 1–25,
https://doi.org/10.3354/cr021001, 2002. a
Ohmura, A.: Changes in mountain glaciers and ice caps during the 20th century, Ann. Glaciol., 43, 361–368, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756406781812212, 2006. a
Ohmura, A., Bauder, A., Müller, H., and Kappenberger, G.: Long-term change of
mass balance and the role of radiation, Ann. Glaciol., 46, 367–374,
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871297, 2007. a
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A.,
Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., CifuentesJara, M., DeConto, R., Ghosh, T., Hay, J.,
Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise and
Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC Special
Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., in press, 2019. a
Parkes, D. and Goosse, H.: Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model, The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020. a
Parkes, D. and Marzeion, B.: Twentieth-century contribution to sea-level rise
from uncharted glaciers, Nature, 563, 551–554,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0687-9, 2018. a, b
Poli, P., Hersbach, H., Dee, D. P., Berrisford, P., Simmons, A. J., Vitart, F., Laloyaux, P., Tan, D. G. H., Peubey, C., Thépaut, J.-N., Trémolet, Y.,
Hólm, E. V., Bonavita, M., Isaksen, L., and Fisher, M.: ERA-20C: An
Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century, J. Climate, 29,
4083–4097, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0556.1, 2016. a
Radić, V. and Hock, R.: Regionally differentiated contribution of
mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise, Nat. Geosci.,
4, 91–94, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1052, 2011. a, b
RGI: Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) – A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines: Version 6.0, Technical Report, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Boulder, Colorado, USA, https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60, 2017. a, b, c, d
Roe, G. H., Christian, J. E., and Marzeion, B.: On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change, The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021. a
Rye, C. J., Willis, I. C., Arnold, N. S., and Kohler, J.: On the need for
automated multiobjective optimization and uncertainty estimation of glacier
mass balance models, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 117, F02005,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002184, 2012. a
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Pan, H.-L., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P.,
Kistler, R., Woollen, J., Behringer, D., Liu, H., Stokes, D., Grumbine, R.,
Gayno, G., Wang, J., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H.-y., Juang, H.-M. H., Sela, J.,
Iredell, M., Treadon, R., Kleist, D., Van Delst, P., Keyser, D., Derber, J.,
Ek, M., Meng, J., Wei, H., Yang, R., Lord, S., van den Dool, H., Kumar, A.,
Wang, W., Long, C., Chelliah, M., Xue, Y., Huang, B., Schemm, J.-K.,
Ebisuzaki, W., Lin, R., Xie, P., Chen, M., Zhou, S., Higgins, W., Zou, C.-Z.,
Liu, Q., Chen, Y., Han, Y., Cucurull, L., Reynolds, R. W., Rutledge, G., and
Goldberg, M.: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1015–1058,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1, 2010. a
Shannon, S., Smith, R., Wiltshire, A., Payne, T., Huss, M., Betts, R., Caesar, J., Koutroulis, A., Jones, D., and Harrison, S.: Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios, The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019. a
Shugar, D. H., Burr, A., Haritashya, U. K., Kargel, J. S., C, S. W., Kennedy,
M. C., Bevington, A. R., Betts, R. A., Harrison, S., and Strattman, K.: Rapid
worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990, Nat. Clim. Change,
10, 939–945, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4, 2020. a, b
Slangen, A. B. A., Meyssignac, B., Agosta, C., Champollion, N., Church, J. A., Fettweis, X., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Marzeion, B., Melet, A., Palmer, M. D., Richter, K., Roberts, C. D., and Spada, G.: Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part I: Global Mean Sea Level Change, J. Climate, 30, 8539–8563, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0110.1, 2017. a
Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Giese,
B. S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Yin, X., Vose, R., Titchner, H., Kennedy, J.,
Spencer, L. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D.,
Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Crouthamel, R., Domínguez-Castro, F., Freeman,
J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E., Jones, P. D., Jourdain, S., Kaplan, A.,
Kubota, H., Blancq, F. L., Lee, T.-C., Lorrey, A., Luterbacher, J., Maugeri,
M., Mock, C. J., Moore, G. K., Przybylak, R., Pudmenzky, C., Reason, C.,
Slonosky, V. C., Smith, C. A., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Valente, M. A., Wang,
X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K., and Wyszyński, P.: Towards a more reliable
historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century
Reanalysis system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
145, 2876–2908, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598, 2019. a
Small, C. and Nicholls, R. J.: A Global Analysis of Human Settlement in Coastal Zones, J. Coast. Res., 19, 584–599, availalble at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4299200 (last access: 5 July 2021), 2003. a
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single
diagram, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 7183–7192,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719, 2001. a
Van de Wal, R. S. W. and Wild, M.: Modelling the response of glaciers to
climate change by applying volume-area scaling in combination with a high
resolution GCM, Clim. Dynam., 18, 359–366, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100184,
2001. a
WGMS: Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 1 (2012–2013), edited by: Zemp, M.,
Gärtner-Roer, I., Nussbaumer, S. U., Hüsler, F., Machguth, H., Mölg, N.,
Paul F., and Hoelzle, M., ICSU(WDS)/IUGG(IACS)/UNEP/UNESCO/WMO, World
Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, p. 230,
https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2015-11, 2015. a, b, c
WGMS: Fluctuations of Glaciers Database, World Glacier Monitoring Service,
Zurich, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2018-11, 2018. a
WGMS: Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 3 (2016–2017), edited by: Zemp, M.,
Gärtner-Roer, I., Nussbaumer, S. U., Bannwart, J., Rastner, P., Paul, F.,
and Hoelzle, M., ISC(WDS)/IUGG(IACS)/UNEP/UNESCO/WMO, World Glacier
Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2020-08,
2020. a, b
Wijngaard, R. R., Biemans, H., Lutz, A. F., Shrestha, A. B., Wester, P., and Immerzeel, W. W.: Climate change vs. socio-economic development: understanding the future South Asian water gap, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6297–6321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018, 2018. a
Wild, M.: Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 27–37, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1, 2012. a
Zemp, M., Huss, M., Thibert, E., Eckert, N., McNabb, R., Huber, J., Barandun,
M., Machguth, H., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gärtner-Roer, I., Thomson, L., Paul,
F., Maussion, F., Kutuzov, S., and Cogley, J. G.: Global glacier mass changes
and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, Nature, 568,
382–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Short summary
To better estimate the uncertainty in glacier mass change modeling during the 20th century we ran an established model with an ensemble of meteorological data sets. We find that the total ensemble uncertainty, especially in the early 20th century, when glaciological and meteorological observations at glacier locations were sparse, increases considerably compared to individual ensemble runs. This stems from regions with a lot of ice mass but few observations (e.g., Greenland periphery).
To better estimate the uncertainty in glacier mass change modeling during the 20th century we...
