Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 30 Apr 2024
| 30 Apr 2024
Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice
Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Jakob Dörr
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Robert C. J. Wills
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Andrew F. Thompson
Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Marius Årthun
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Jakob Simon Dörr, David B. Bonan, Marius Årthun, Lea Svendsen, and Robert C. J. Wills
The Cryosphere, 17, 4133–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023, 2023
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The Arctic sea-ice cover is retreating due to climate change, but this retreat is influenced by natural (internal) variability in the climate system. We use a new statistical method to investigate how much internal variability has affected trends in the summer and winter Arctic sea-ice cover using observations since 1979. Our results suggest that the impact of internal variability on sea-ice retreat might be lower than what climate models have estimated.
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, Steven J. De Hertog, and Robert C. J. Wills
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1262, 2025
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Afforestation is a key strategy for climate change mitigation, yet the impacts on tropical hydroclimate remain uncertain. We find that future afforestation would increase evaporation and precipitation in the tropics, especially over Africa. It would also reduce net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) in these regions, which determines water availability. This happens because trees slow near-surface winds, while their influence on the energy budget strengthens convection.
Clarissa A. Kroll, Andrea Schneidereit, Robert C. J. Wills, Luis Kornblueh, and Ulrike Niemeier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1212, 2025
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The double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is a prominent precipitation bias in climate models. We demonstrate its persistence from a resolution of 160 km up to 5 km. Its root cause lies in biased moisture transport from the subtropics to the inner tropics reducing convection and weakening tropical circulation. Increasing the surface wind speed addresses the bias, but deteriorates the global circulation. This highlights the importance of resolution hierarchies and parametrization development.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackerman, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067, 2025
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This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland Ice Sheet over the next 20–30 years, but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Nicola Maher, Adam S. Phillips, Clara Deser, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Flavio Lehner, John Fasullo, Julie M. Caron, Lukas Brunner, and Urs Beyerle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3684, 2024
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We present a new multi-model large ensemble archive (MMLEAv2) and introduce the newly updated Climate Variability Diagnostics Package version 6 (CVDPv6), which is designed specifically for use with large ensembles. For highly variable quantities, we demonstrate that a model might evaluate poorly or favourably compared to the single realisation of the world that the observations represent, highlighting the need for large ensembles for model evaluation.
Tapio Schneider, L. Ruby Leung, and Robert C. J. Wills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7041–7062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, 2024
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Climate models are crucial for predicting climate change in detail. This paper proposes a balanced approach to improving their accuracy by combining traditional process-based methods with modern artificial intelligence (AI) techniques while maximizing the resolution to allow for ensemble simulations. The authors propose using AI to learn from both observational and simulated data while incorporating existing physical knowledge to reduce data demands and improve climate prediction reliability.
Jakob Simon Dörr, David B. Bonan, Marius Årthun, Lea Svendsen, and Robert C. J. Wills
The Cryosphere, 17, 4133–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023, 2023
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The Arctic sea-ice cover is retreating due to climate change, but this retreat is influenced by natural (internal) variability in the climate system. We use a new statistical method to investigate how much internal variability has affected trends in the summer and winter Arctic sea-ice cover using observations since 1979. Our results suggest that the impact of internal variability on sea-ice retreat might be lower than what climate models have estimated.
Nicola Maher, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Pedro DiNezio, Jeremy Klavans, Sebastian Milinski, Sara C. Sanchez, Samantha Stevenson, Malte F. Stuecker, and Xian Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023, 2023
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Understanding whether the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to change in the future is important due to its widespread impacts. By using large ensembles, we can robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO variability in 14 climate models. We find that ENSO variability evolves in a nonlinear fashion in many models and that there are large differences between models. These nonlinear changes imply that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.
Ole Rieke, Marius Årthun, and Jakob Simon Dörr
The Cryosphere, 17, 1445–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, 2023
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The Barents Sea is the region of most intense winter sea ice loss, and future projections show a continued decline towards ice-free conditions by the end of this century but with large fluctuations. Here we use climate model simulations to look at the occurrence and drivers of rapid ice change events in the Barents Sea that are much stronger than the average ice loss. A better understanding of these events will contribute to improved sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Hector S. Torres, Patrice Klein, Jinbo Wang, Alexander Wineteer, Bo Qiu, Andrew F. Thompson, Lionel Renault, Ernesto Rodriguez, Dimitris Menemenlis, Andrea Molod, Christopher N. Hill, Ehud Strobach, Hong Zhang, Mar Flexas, and Dragana Perkovic-Martin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8041–8058, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8041-2022, 2022
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Wind work at the air-sea interface is the scalar product of winds and currents and is the transfer of kinetic energy between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a new global coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation performed at kilometer resolution, we show that all scales of winds and currents impact the ocean dynamics at spatial and temporal scales. The consequential interplay of surface winds and currents in the numerical simulation motivates the need for a winds and currents satellite mission.
Ryan Schubert, Andrew F. Thompson, Kevin Speer, Lena Schulze Chretien, and Yana Bebieva
The Cryosphere, 15, 4179–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4179-2021, 2021
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The Antarctic Coastal Current (AACC) is an ocean current found along the coast of Antarctica. Using measurements of temperature and salinity collected by instrumented seals, the AACC is shown to be a continuous circulation feature throughout West Antarctica. Due to its proximity to the coast, the AACC's structure influences oceanic melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. These melt rates impact the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with global implications for future sea level change.
Philipp Anhaus, Lars H. Smedsrud, Marius Årthun, and Fiammetta Straneo
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-35, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Atlantic Water flows towards the Arctic and under floating glaciers on Greenland. Observations in a rift on the 79 North Glacier show presence of such water with temperature of 1 °C at 600 m. We simulate how this warm water melts the floating ice. Melt rates are largest where the glacier starts floating, are smaller where the water rises, and increase linearly with rising ocean temperature. Our results improve the understanding of ocean processes driving melting of floating glaciers.
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Discipline: Sea ice | Subject: Antarctic
A new dataset of Southern Ocean sea-ice leads: First insights into regional lead patterns, seasonality and trends, 2003–2023
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Impacts of Atmospheric Dynamics on Sea-Ice and Snow Thickness at a Coastal Site in East Antarctica
Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss
Quantifying the influence of snow over sea ice morphology on L-band passive microwave satellite observations in the Southern Ocean
The role of atmospheric conditions in the Antarctic sea ice extent summer minima
A contrast in sea ice drift and deformation between winter and spring of 2019 in the Antarctic marginal ice zone
Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model
Signature of the stratosphere–troposphere coupling on recent record-breaking Antarctic sea-ice anomalies
Southern Ocean polynyas and dense water formation in a high-resolution, coupled Earth system model
A decade-plus of Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume estimates from CryoSat-2 using a physical model and waveform fitting
Annual evolution of the ice–ocean interaction beneath landfast ice in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica
The response of sea ice and high-salinity shelf water in the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya to cyclonic atmosphere circulations
Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode
Evolution of the dynamics, area, and ice production of the Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica, 2016–2021
Modulation of the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent by sea ice processes and feedbacks with the ocean and the atmosphere
Ice Sheet and Sea Ice Ultrawideband Microwave radiometric Airborne eXperiment (ISSIUMAX) in Antarctica: first results from Terra Nova Bay
Influence of fast ice on future ice shelf melting in the Totten Glacier area, East Antarctica
A comparison between Envisat and ICESat sea ice thickness in the Southern Ocean
An indicator of sea ice variability for the Antarctic marginal ice zone
Physical and mechanical properties of winter first-year ice in the Antarctic marginal ice zone along the Good Hope Line
Altimetric observation of wave attenuation through the Antarctic marginal ice zone using ICESat-2
Flexural and compressive strength of the landfast sea ice in the Prydz Bay, East Antarctic
The sensitivity of landfast sea ice to atmospheric forcing in single-column model simulations: a case study at Zhongshan Station, Antarctica
An evaluation of Antarctic sea-ice thickness from the Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System based on in situ and satellite observations
Rectification and validation of a daily satellite-derived Antarctic sea ice velocity product
Weddell Sea polynya analysis using SMOS–SMAP apparent sea ice thickness retrieval
Eighteen-year record of circum-Antarctic landfast-sea-ice distribution allows detailed baseline characterisation and reveals trends and variability
Brief communication: The anomalous winter 2019 sea-ice conditions in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
Southern Ocean polynyas in CMIP6 models
Airborne mapping of the sub-ice platelet layer under fast ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
Evaluation of sea-ice thickness from four reanalyses in the Antarctic Weddell Sea
The Antarctic sea ice cover from ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2: freeboard, snow depth, and ice thickness
Seasonal and interannual variability of landfast sea ice in Atka Bay, Weddell Sea, Antarctica
Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model
Retrieval of snow freeboard of Antarctic sea ice using waveform fitting of CryoSat-2 returns
Three years of sea ice freeboard, snow depth, and ice thickness of the Weddell Sea from Operation IceBridge and CryoSat-2
Umesh Dubey, Sascha Willmes, and Günther Heinemann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-736, 2025
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Sea-ice leads facilitate the exchange of heat and moisture between the ocean and atmosphere during wintertime. We present a new dataset on monthly wintertime sea-ice leads in the Southern Ocean from 2003 to 2023. Our study reveals distinct regional patterns, seasonal variability, and small but significant trends. Here, we present initial findings on Southern Ocean lead dynamics to support future research into the complex pan-Antarctic interactions among sea ice, ocean and atmosphere.
Mukund Gupta, Heather Regan, Younghyun Koo, Sean Minhui Tashi Chua, Xueke Li, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 19, 1241–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1241-2025, 2025
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The sea ice cover is composed of floes, whose shapes set the material properties of the pack. Here, we use a satellite product (ICESat-2) to investigate these floe shapes within the Weddell Sea in Antarctica. We find that floes tend to become smaller during the melt season, while their thickness distribution exhibits different behavior between the western and southern regions of the pack. These metrics will help calibrate models and improve our understanding of sea ice physics across scales.
Diana Francis, Ricardo Fonseca, Narendra Nelli, Petra Heil, Jonathan Wille, Irina Gorodetskaya, and Robert Massom
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3535, 2025
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This study investigates the impact of atmospheric rivers and associated atmospheric dynamics on sea-ice thickness and snow depth at a coastal site in East Antarctica during July–November 2022 using in-situ measurements and numerical modelling. The passage of an atmospheric river induced a reduction of up to 0.06 m in both fields. Precipitation occurred from the convergence of katabatic winds with advected low-latitude moist air.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
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Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
Lu Zhou, Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Shiming Xu, Weixin Zhu, Sahra Kacimi, Stefanie Arndt, and Zifan Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4399–4434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, 2024
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Snow over Antarctic sea ice, influenced by highly variable meteorological conditions and heavy snowfall, has a complex stratigraphy and profound impact on the microwave signature. We employ advanced radiation transfer models to analyse the effects of complex snow properties on brightness temperatures over the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Great potential lies in the understanding of snow processes and the application to satellite retrievals.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
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We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Ashleigh Womack, Alberto Alberello, Marc de Vos, Alessandro Toffoli, Robyn Verrinder, and Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 18, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-205-2024, 2024
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Synoptic events have a significant influence on the evolution of Antarctic sea ice. Our current understanding of the interactions between cyclones and sea ice remains limited. Using two ensembles of buoys, deployed in the north-eastern Weddell Sea region during winter and spring of 2019, we show how the evolution and spatial pattern of sea ice drift and deformation in the Antarctic marginal ice zone were affected by the balance between atmospheric and oceanic forcing and the local ice.
Yushi Morioka, Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Masami Nonaka, and Swadhin K. Behera
The Cryosphere, 17, 5219–5240, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023, 2023
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Antarctic sea ice extent shows multidecadal variations with its decrease in the 1980s and increase after the 2000s until 2015. Here we show that our climate model can predict the sea ice decrease by deep convection in the Southern Ocean and the sea ice increase by the surface wind variability. These results suggest that accurate simulation and prediction of subsurface ocean and atmosphere conditions are important for those of Antarctic sea ice variability on a multidecadal timescale.
Raúl R. Cordero, Sarah Feron, Alessandro Damiani, Pedro J. Llanillo, Jorge Carrasco, Alia L. Khan, Richard Bintanja, Zutao Ouyang, and Gino Casassa
The Cryosphere, 17, 4995–5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4995-2023, 2023
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We investigate the response of Antarctic sea ice to year-to-year changes in the tropospheric–stratospheric dynamics. Our findings suggest that, by affecting the tropospheric westerlies, the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex has played a major role in recent record-breaking anomalies in Antarctic sea ice.
Hyein Jeong, Adrian K. Turner, Andrew F. Roberts, Milena Veneziani, Stephen F. Price, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Luke P. Van Roekel, Wuyin Lin, Peter M. Caldwell, Hyo-Seok Park, Jonathan D. Wolfe, and Azamat Mametjanov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2681–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, 2023
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We find that E3SM-HR reproduces the main features of the Antarctic coastal polynyas. Despite the high amount of coastal sea ice production, the densest water masses are formed in the open ocean. Biases related to the lack of dense water formation are associated with overly strong atmospheric polar easterlies. Our results indicate that the large-scale polar atmospheric circulation must be accurately simulated in models to properly reproduce Antarctic dense water formation.
Steven Fons, Nathan Kurtz, and Marco Bagnardi
The Cryosphere, 17, 2487–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2487-2023, 2023
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Antarctic sea ice thickness is an important quantity in the Earth system. Due to the thick and complex snow cover on Antarctic sea ice, estimating the thickness of the ice pack is difficult using traditional methods in radar altimetry. In this work, we use a waveform model to estimate the freeboard and snow depth of Antarctic sea ice from CryoSat-2 and use these values to calculate sea ice thickness and volume between 2010 and 2021 and showcase how the sea ice pack has changed over this time.
Haihan Hu, Jiechen Zhao, Petra Heil, Zhiliang Qin, Jingkai Ma, Fengming Hui, and Xiao Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 2231–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2231-2023, 2023
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The oceanic characteristics beneath sea ice significantly affect ice growth and melting. The high-frequency and long-term observations of oceanic variables allow us to deeply investigate their diurnal and seasonal variation and evaluate their influences on sea ice evolution. The large-scale sea ice distribution and ocean circulation contributed to the seasonal variation of ocean variables, revealing the important relationship between large-scale and local phenomena.
Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman, Petteri Uotila, Xichen Li, and Meng Zhou
The Cryosphere, 17, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1107-2023, 2023
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The bottom water of the global ocean originates from high-salinity water formed in polynyas in the Southern Ocean where sea ice coverage is low. This study reveals the impacts of cyclones on sea ice and water mass formation in the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya using numerical simulations. Sea ice production is rapidly increased caused by enhancement in offshore wind, promoting high-salinity water formation in the polynya. Cyclones also modulate the transport of this water mass by wind-driven currents.
Serena Schroeter, Terence J. O'Kane, and Paul A. Sandery
The Cryosphere, 17, 701–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-701-2023, 2023
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Antarctic sea ice has increased over much of the satellite record, but we show that the early, strongly opposing regional trends diminish and reverse over time, leading to overall negative trends in recent decades. The dominant pattern of atmospheric flow has changed from strongly east–west to more wave-like with enhanced north–south winds. Sea surface temperatures have also changed from circumpolar cooling to regional warming, suggesting recent record low sea ice will not rapidly recover.
Grant J. Macdonald, Stephen F. Ackley, Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez, and Adrià Blanco-Cabanillas
The Cryosphere, 17, 457–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-457-2023, 2023
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Polynyas are key sites of sea ice production, biological activity, and carbon sequestration. The Amundsen Sea Polynya is of particular interest due to its size and location. By analyzing radar imagery and climate and sea ice data products, we evaluate variations in the dynamics, area, and ice production of the Amundsen Sea Polynya. In particular, we find the local seafloor topography and associated grounded icebergs play an important role in the polynya dynamics, influencing ice production.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
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Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Marco Brogioni, Mark J. Andrews, Stefano Urbini, Kenneth C. Jezek, Joel T. Johnson, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Giovanni Macelloni, Stephen F. Ackley, Alexandra Bringer, Ludovic Brucker, Oguz Demir, Giacomo Fontanelli, Caglar Yardim, Lars Kaleschke, Francesco Montomoli, Leung Tsang, Silvia Becagli, and Massimo Frezzotti
The Cryosphere, 17, 255–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-255-2023, 2023
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In 2018 the first Antarctic campaign of UWBRAD was carried out. UWBRAD is a new radiometer able to collect microwave spectral signatures over 0.5–2 GHz, thus outperforming existing similar sensors. It allows us to probe thicker sea ice and ice sheet down to the bedrock. In this work we tried to assess the UWBRAD potentials for sea ice, glaciers, ice shelves and buried lakes. We also highlighted the wider range of information the spectral signature can provide to glaciological studies.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
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We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Jinfei Wang, Chao Min, Robert Ricker, Qian Shi, Bo Han, Stefan Hendricks, Renhao Wu, and Qinghua Yang
The Cryosphere, 16, 4473–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4473-2022, 2022
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The differences between Envisat and ICESat sea ice thickness (SIT) reveal significant temporal and spatial variations. Our findings suggest that both overestimation of Envisat sea ice freeboard, potentially caused by radar backscatter originating from inside the snow layer, and the AMSR-E snow depth biases and sea ice density uncertainties can possibly account for the differences between Envisat and ICESat SIT.
Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 16, 4087–4106, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4087-2022, 2022
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The marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Antarctic is the largest in the world ocean. Antarctic sea ice has large year-to-year changes, and the MIZ represents its most variable component. Processes typical of the MIZ have also been observed in fully ice-covered ocean and are not captured by existing diagnostics. A new statistical method has been shown to address previous limitations in assessing the seasonal cycle of MIZ extent and to provide a probability map of sea ice state in the Southern Ocean.
Sebastian Skatulla, Riesna R. Audh, Andrea Cook, Ehlke Hepworth, Siobhan Johnson, Doru C. Lupascu, Keith MacHutchon, Rutger Marquart, Tommy Mielke, Emmanuel Omatuku, Felix Paul, Tokoloho Rampai, Jörg Schröder, Carina Schwarz, and Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 16, 2899–2925, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2899-2022, 2022
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First-year sea ice has been sampled at the advancing outer edge of the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) along the Good Hope Line. Ice cores were extracted from five pancake ice floes and subsequently analysed for their physical and mechanical properties. Of particular interest was elucidating the transition of ice composition within the MIZ in terms of differences in mechanical stiffness and strength properties as linked to physical and textural characteristics at early-stage ice formation.
Jill Brouwer, Alexander D. Fraser, Damian J. Murphy, Pat Wongpan, Alberto Alberello, Alison Kohout, Christopher Horvat, Simon Wotherspoon, Robert A. Massom, Jessica Cartwright, and Guy D. Williams
The Cryosphere, 16, 2325–2353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2325-2022, 2022
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The marginal ice zone is the region where ocean waves interact with sea ice. Although this important region influences many sea ice, ocean and biological processes, it has been difficult to accurately measure on a large scale from satellite instruments. We present new techniques for measuring wave attenuation using the NASA ICESat-2 laser altimeter. By measuring how waves attenuate within the sea ice, we show that the marginal ice zone may be far wider than previously realised.
Qingkai Wang, Zhaoquan Li, Peng Lu, Yigang Xu, and Zhijun Li
The Cryosphere, 16, 1941–1961, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1941-2022, 2022
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A large area of landfast sea ice exists in the Prydz Bay, and it is always a safety concern to transport cargos on ice to the research stations. Knowing the mechanical properties of sea ice is helpful to solve the issue; however, these data are rarely reported in this region. We explore the effects of sea ice physical properties on the flexural strength, effective elastic modulus, and uniaxial compressive strength, which gives new insights into assessing the bearing capacity of landfast sea ice.
Fengguan Gu, Qinghua Yang, Frank Kauker, Changwei Liu, Guanghua Hao, Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, Petra Heil, Xuewei Li, and Bo Han
The Cryosphere, 16, 1873–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1873-2022, 2022
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The sea ice thickness was simulated by a single-column model and compared with in situ observations obtained off Zhongshan Station in the Antarctic. It is shown that the unrealistic precipitation in the atmospheric forcing data leads to the largest bias in sea ice thickness and snow depth modeling. In addition, the increasing snow depth gradually inhibits the growth of sea ice associated with thermal blanketing by the snow.
Sutao Liao, Hao Luo, Jinfei Wang, Qian Shi, Jinlun Zhang, and Qinghua Yang
The Cryosphere, 16, 1807–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1807-2022, 2022
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The Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS) can basically reproduce the observed variability in Antarctic sea-ice volume and its changes in the trend before and after 2013, and it underestimates Antarctic sea-ice thickness (SIT) especially in deformed ice zones. Assimilating additional sea-ice observations with advanced assimilation methods may result in a more accurate estimation of Antarctic SIT.
Tian R. Tian, Alexander D. Fraser, Noriaki Kimura, Chen Zhao, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 16, 1299–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, 2022
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This study presents a comprehensive validation of a satellite observational sea ice motion product in Antarctica by using drifting buoys. Two problems existing in this sea ice motion product have been noticed. After rectifying problems, we use it to investigate the impacts of satellite observational configuration and timescale on Antarctic sea ice kinematics and suggest the future improvement of satellite missions specifically designed for retrieval of sea ice motion.
Alexander Mchedlishvili, Gunnar Spreen, Christian Melsheimer, and Marcus Huntemann
The Cryosphere, 16, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-471-2022, 2022
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In this paper we show that the activity leading to the open-ocean polynyas near the Maud Rise seamount that have occurred repeatedly from 1974–1976 as well as 2016–2017 does not simply stop for polynya-free years. Using apparent sea ice thickness retrieval, we have identified anomalies where there is thinning of sea ice on a scale that is comparable to that of the polynya events of 2016–2017. These anomalies took place in 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2018.
Alexander D. Fraser, Robert A. Massom, Mark S. Handcock, Phillip Reid, Kay I. Ohshima, Marilyn N. Raphael, Jessica Cartwright, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Zhaohui Wang, and Richard Porter-Smith
The Cryosphere, 15, 5061–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5061-2021, 2021
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Landfast ice is sea ice that remains stationary by attaching to Antarctica's coastline and grounded icebergs. Although a variable feature, landfast ice exerts influence on key coastal processes involving pack ice, the ice sheet, ocean, and atmosphere and is of ecological importance. We present a first analysis of change in landfast ice over an 18-year period and quantify trends (−0.19 ± 0.18 % yr−1). This analysis forms a reference of landfast-ice extent and variability for use in other studies.
Greg H. Leonard, Kate E. Turner, Maren E. Richter, Maddy S. Whittaker, and Inga J. Smith
The Cryosphere, 15, 4999–5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4999-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4999-2021, 2021
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McMurdo Sound sea ice can generally be partitioned into two regimes: a stable fast-ice cover forming south of approximately 77.6° S and a more dynamic region north of 77.6° S that is regularly impacted by polynyas. In 2019, a stable fast-ice cover formed unusually late due to repeated break-out events. This subsequently affected sea-ice operations in the 2019/20 field season. We analysed the 2019 sea-ice conditions and found a strong correlation with unusually large southerly wind events.
Martin Mohrmann, Céline Heuzé, and Sebastiaan Swart
The Cryosphere, 15, 4281–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021, 2021
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Polynyas are large open-water areas within the sea ice. We developed a method to estimate their area, distribution and frequency for the Southern Ocean in climate models and observations. All models have polynyas along the coast but few do so in the open ocean, in contrast to observations. We examine potential atmospheric and oceanic drivers of open-water polynyas and discuss recently implemented schemes that may have improved some models' polynya representation.
Christian Haas, Patricia J. Langhorne, Wolfgang Rack, Greg H. Leonard, Gemma M. Brett, Daniel Price, Justin F. Beckers, and Alex J. Gough
The Cryosphere, 15, 247–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-247-2021, 2021
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We developed a method to remotely detect proxy signals of Antarctic ice shelf melt under adjacent sea ice. It is based on aircraft surveys with electromagnetic induction sounding. We found year-to-year variability of the ice shelf melt proxy in McMurdo Sound and spatial fine structure that support assumptions about the melt of the McMurdo Ice Shelf. With this method it will be possible to map and detect locations of intense ice shelf melt along the coast of Antarctica.
Qian Shi, Qinghua Yang, Longjiang Mu, Jinfei Wang, François Massonnet, and Matthew R. Mazloff
The Cryosphere, 15, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021, 2021
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The ice thickness from four state-of-the-art reanalyses (GECCO2, SOSE, NEMO-EnKF and GIOMAS) are evaluated against that from remote sensing and in situ observations in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Most of the reanalyses can reproduce ice thickness in the central and eastern Weddell Sea but failed to capture the thick and deformed ice in the western Weddell Sea. These results demonstrate the possibilities and limitations of using current sea-ice reanalysis in Antarctic climate research.
Sahra Kacimi and Ron Kwok
The Cryosphere, 14, 4453–4474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4453-2020, 2020
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Our current understanding of Antarctic ice cover is largely informed by ice extent measurements from passive microwave sensors. These records, while useful, provide a limited picture of how the ice is responding to climate change. In this paper, we combine measurements from ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2 missions to assess snow depth and ice thickness of the Antarctic ice cover over an 8-month period (April through November 2019). The potential impact of salinity in the snow layer is discussed.
Stefanie Arndt, Mario Hoppmann, Holger Schmithüsen, Alexander D. Fraser, and Marcel Nicolaus
The Cryosphere, 14, 2775–2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2775-2020, 2020
Hailong Wang, Jeremy G. Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jesse M. Nusbaumer, Hansi Singh, David Noone, Philip J. Rasch, and Rudong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, 2020
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Using a climate model with unique water source tagging, we found that sea-ice anomalies in the Southern Ocean and accompanying SST changes have a significant influence on Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution through their direct impact on moisture sources and indirect impact on moisture transport. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation.
Steven W. Fons and Nathan T. Kurtz
The Cryosphere, 13, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-861-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-861-2019, 2019
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A method to measure the snow freeboard of Antarctic sea ice from CryoSat-2 data is developed. Through comparisons with data from airborne campaigns and another satellite mission, we find that this method can reasonably retrieve snow freeboard across the Antarctic and shows promise in retrieving snow depth in certain locations. Snow freeboard data from CryoSat-2 are important because they enable the calculation of sea ice thickness and help to better understand snow depth on Antarctic sea ice.
Ron Kwok and Sahra Kacimi
The Cryosphere, 12, 2789–2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2789-2018, 2018
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The variability of snow depth and ice thickness in three years of repeat surveys of an IceBridge (OIB) transect across the Weddell Sea is examined. Retrieved thicknesses suggest a highly variable but broadly thicker ice cover compared to that inferred from drilling and ship-based measurements. The use of lidar and radar altimeters to estimate snow depth for thickness calculations is analyzed, and the need for better characterization of biases due to radar penetration effects is highlighted.
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Short summary
Antarctic sea ice has exhibited variability over satellite records, including a period of gradual expansion and a period of sudden decline. We use a novel statistical method to identify sources of variability in observed Antarctic sea ice changes. We find that the gradual increase in sea ice is likely related to large-scale temperature trends, and periods of abrupt sea ice decline are related to specific flavors of equatorial tropical variability known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Antarctic sea ice has exhibited variability over satellite records, including a period of...
