Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 12 Dec 2023
| 12 Dec 2023
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
Qin Zhou
Akvaplan-niva, Tromsø 9296, Norway
Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø 9296, Norway
Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, Tromsø 9019, Norway
Nina Kirchner
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
Related authors
No articles found.
Ole Zeising, Tore Hattermann, Lars Kaleschke, Sophie Berger, Olaf Boebel, Reinhard Drews, M. Reza Ershadi, Tanja Fromm, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Steinhage, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 2837–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Basal melting of ice shelves impacts the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This study focuses on the Ekström Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, using multiyear data from an autonomous radar system. Results show a surprising seasonal pattern of high melt rates in winter and spring. The seasonalities of sea-ice growth and ocean density indicate that, in winter, dense water enhances plume activity and melt rates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving future mass balance projections.
Felicity A. Holmes, Jamie Barnett, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2695–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades, in contrast to nearby glaciers. Here, we use a computer model to simulate Ryder Glacier until 2300 under both a low- and a high-emissions scenario. Very high levels of surface melt under a high-emissions future lead to a sea level rise contribution that is an order of magnitude higher than under a low-emissions future.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1942, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
ISOMIP+ compares 12 ocean models that simulate ice-ocean interactions in a common, idealised, static ice shelf cavity setup, aiming to assess and understand inter-model variability. Models simulate similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties and spatial distributions of melting. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Jamie Barnett, Felicity Alice Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-653, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how ice sheets have changed in the past can allow us to make better predictions for the future. By running a state-of-the-art model of Ryder Glacier, North Greenland, over the past 12,000 years we find that both a warming atmosphere and ocean play a key role in the evolution of the Glacier. Our conclusions stress that accurately quantifying the ice sheet’s interactions with the ocean are required to predict future changes and reliable sea level rise estimates.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adrian Jenkins, Alessandro Silvano, Christopher Auckland, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael P. Meredith, Irena Vaňková, Keith W. Nicholls, Peter E. D. Davis, Svein Østerhus, Arnold L. Gordon, Christopher J. Zappa, Tiago S. Dotto, Theodore A. Scambos, Kathyrn L. Gunn, Stephen R. Rintoul, Shigeru Aoki, Craig Stevens, Chengyan Liu, Sukyoung Yun, Tae-Wan Kim, Won Sang Lee, Markus Janout, Tore Hattermann, Julius Lauber, Elin Darelius, Anna Wåhlin, Leo Middleton, Pasquale Castagno, Giorgio Budillon, Karen J. Heywood, Jennifer Graham, Stephen Dye, Daisuke Hirano, and Una Kim Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-54, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We created the first standardised dataset of in-situ ocean measurements time series from around Antarctica collected since 1970s. This includes temperature, salinity, pressure, and currents recorded by instruments deployed in icy, challenging conditions. Our analysis highlights the dominance of tidal currents and separates these from other patterns to study regional energy distribution. This unique dataset offers a foundation for future research on Antarctic ocean dynamics and ice interactions.
Julius Lauber, Tore Hattermann, Laura de Steur, Elin Darelius, and Agneta Fransson
Ocean Sci., 20, 1585–1610, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have highlighted the potential vulnerability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric and oceanic changes. We present new insights from observations from three oceanic moorings below Fimbulisen Ice Shelf from 2009 to 2023. We find that relatively warm water masses reach below the ice shelf both close to the surface and at depth with implications for the basal melting of Fimbulisen.
Qin Zhou, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Tore Hattermann, David Gwyther, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
Adrian Dye, Robert Bryant, Francesca Falcini, Joseph Mallalieu, Miles Dimbleby, Michael Beckwith, David Rippin, and Nina Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2510, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Thermal undercutting of the terminus has driven recent rapid retreat of an Arctic glacier. Water temperatures (~4 °C) at the ice front were warmer than previously assumed and thermal undercutting was over several metres deep. This triggered phases of high calving activity, playing a substantial role in the rapid retreat of Kaskasapakte glacier since 2012, with important implications for processes occurring at glacier-water contact points and implications for hydrology and ecology downstream.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Felicity A. Holmes, Eef van Dongen, Riko Noormets, Michał Pętlicki, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 1853–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers which end in bodies of water can lose mass through melting below the waterline, as well as by the breaking off of icebergs. We use a numerical model to simulate the breaking off of icebergs at Kronebreen, a glacier in Svalbard, and find that both melting below the waterline and tides are important for iceberg production. In addition, we compare the modelled glacier front to observations and show that melting below the waterline can lead to undercuts of up to around 25 m.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, and Tore Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5421–5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing models to MISOMIP1. The oscillation is closely related to the discretized grounding line retreat and likely strengthened by the buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and frequent ice–ocean coupling. Our model choices have a non-trivial impact on mean melt and ocean circulation strength, which might be interesting for the coupled ice–ocean community.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Coen Hofstede, Sebastian Beyer, Hugh Corr, Olaf Eisen, Tore Hattermann, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Emma C. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Ole Zeising, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 1517–1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1517-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Support Force Glacier rapidly flows into Filcher Ice Shelf of Antarctica. As we know little about this glacier and its subglacial drainage, we used seismic energy to map the transition area from grounded to floating ice where a drainage channel enters the ocean cavity. Soft sediments close to the grounding line are probably transported by this drainage channel. The constant ice thickness over the steeply dipping seabed of the ocean cavity suggests a stable transition and little basal melting.
Gong Cheng, Nina Kirchner, and Per Lötstedt
The Cryosphere, 15, 715–742, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an inverse modeling approach to improve the understanding of spatiotemporally variable processes at the inaccessible base of an ice sheet by determining the sensitivity of direct surface observations to perturbations of basal conditions. Time dependency is proved to be important in these types of problems. The effect of perturbations is analyzed based on analytical and numerical solutions.
Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, Chen Zhao, Lenneke Jong, Yuwei Xia, Xiaoran Guo, Konstantinos Petrakopoulos, Thomas Zwinger, Daniel Shapero, and John Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Claudia Wekerle, Tore Hattermann, Qiang Wang, Laura Crews, Wilken-Jon von Appen, and Sergey Danilov
Ocean Sci., 16, 1225–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The high-resolution ocean models ROMS and FESOM configured for the Fram Strait reveal very energetic ocean conditions there. The two main currents meander strongly and shed circular currents of water, called eddies. Our analysis shows that this region is characterised by small and short-lived eddies (on average around a 5 km radius and 10 d lifetime). Both models agree on eddy properties and show similar patterns of baroclinic and barotropic instability of the West Spitsbergen Current.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Tore Hattermann, Fiammetta Straneo, Hélène Seroussi, Christopher M. Little, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To predict the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise, we need to use ice sheet models. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for AR6 (ISMIP6) builds an ensemble of ice sheet projections constrained by atmosphere and ocean projections from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In this work, we present and assess a method to derive ice shelf basal melting in ISMIP6 from the CMIP6 ocean outputs, and we give examples of projected melt rates.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Cited articles
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a
Carroll, D., Sutherland, D. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Catania, G. A., and Stearns, L. A.: Modeling turbulent subglacial meltwater plumes: Implications for fjord-scale buoyancy-driven circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 2169–2185, 2015. a
Carroll, D., Sutherland, D. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Catania, G. A., and Stearns, L. A.: Subglacial discharge-driven renewal of tidewater glacier fjords, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 6611–6629, 2017. a
Chen, C., Huang, H., Beardsley, R. C., Liu, H., Xu, Q., and Cowles, G.: A finite volume numerical approach for coastal ocean circulation studies: Comparisons with finite difference models, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112, C03018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003485, 2007. a, b, c
Chen, X., Zhang, X., Church, J. A., Watson, C. S., King, M. A., Monselesan, D., Legresy, B., and Harig, C.: The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 492–495, 2017. a
Falkner, K. K., Melling, H., Münchow, A. M., Box, J. E., Wohlleben, T., Johnson, H. L., Gudmandsen, P., Samelson, R., Copland, L., Steffen, K., Rignot, E., and Higgins, A. K.: Context for the recent massive Petermann Glacier calving event, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 92, 117–118, 2011. a
Fraser, N. J., Inall, M. E., Magaldi, M. G., Haine, T. W., and Jones, S. C.: Wintertime fjord-shelf interaction and ice sheet melting in southeast Greenland, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 9156–9177, 2018. a
Galperin, B., Kantha, L., Hassid, S., and Rosati, A.: A quasi-equilibrium turbulent energy model for geophysical flows, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 55–62, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0055:AQETEM>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Gwyther, D. E., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Dinniman, M. S., Roberts, J. L., and Hunter, J. R.: The effect of basal friction on melting and freezing in ice shelf–ocean models, Ocean Model., 95, 38–52, 2015. a
Hager, A. O., Sutherland, D. A., Amundson, J. M., Jackson, R. H., Kienholz, C., Motyka, R. J., and Nash, J. D.: Subglacial discharge reflux and buoyancy forcing drive seasonality in a silled glacial fjord, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2021JC018355, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018355, 2022. a, b
Hattermann, T., Isachsen, P. E., von Appen, W.-J., Albretsen, J., and Sundfjord, A.: Eddy-driven recirculation of Atlantic water in Fram Strait, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3406–3414, 2016. a
Hill, E. A., Carr, J. R., and Stokes, C. R.: A review of recent changes in major marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Northern Greenland, Front. Earth Sci., 4, 111, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00111, 2017. a
Hill, E. A., Carr, J. R., Stokes, C. R., and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Dynamic changes in outlet glaciers in northern Greenland from 1948 to 2015, The Cryosphere, 12, 3243–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3243-2018, 2018. a, b
Holland, M. M., Clemens-Sewall, D., Landrum, L., Light, B., Perovich, D., Polashenski, C., Smith, M., and Webster, M.: The influence of snow on sea ice as assessed from simulations of CESM2, The Cryosphere, 15, 4981–4998, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, 2021. a
Jackson, R. H., Straneo, F., and Sutherland, D. A.: Externally forced fluctuations in ocean temperature at Greenland glaciers in non-summer months, Nat. Geosci., 7, 503–508, 2014. a
Jakobsson, M., Mayer, L. A., Bringensparr, C., Castro, C. F., Mohammad, R., Johnson, P., Ketter, T., Accettella, D., Amblas, D., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Canals, M., Casamor, J. L., Chauché, N., Coakley, B., Danielson, S., Demarte, M., Dickson, M.-L., Dorschel, B., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dreutter, S., Fremand, A. C., Gallant, D., Hall, J. K., Hehemann, L., Hodnesdal, H., Hong, J., Ivaldi, R., Kane, E., Klaucke, I., Krawczyk, D. W., Kristoffersen, Y., Kuipers, B. R., Millan, R., Masetti, G., Morlighem, M., Noormets, R., Prescott, M. M., Rebesco, M., Rignot, E., Semiletov, I., Tate, A. J., Travaglini, P., Velicogna, I., Weatherall, P., Weinrebe, W., Willis, J. K., Wood, M., Zarayskaya, Y., Zhang, T., Zimmermann, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: The international bathymetric chart of the Arctic Ocean version 4.0, Sci. Data, 7, 1–14, 2020a. a
Jakobsson, M., Mayer, L. A., Nilsson, J., Stranne, C., Calder, B., O’Regan, M., Farrell, J. W., Cronin, T. M., Brüchert, V., Chawarski, J., Eriksson, B., Fredriksson, J., Gemery, L., Glueder, A., Holmes, F. A., Jerram, K., Kirchner, N., Mix, A., Muchowski, J., Prakash, A., Reilly, B., Thornton, B., Ulfsbo, A., Weidner, E., Åkesson, H., Handl, T., Ståhl, E., Boze, L.-G., Reed, S., West, G., and Padman, J.: Ryder Glacier in northwest Greenland is shielded from warm Atlantic water by a bathymetric sill, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 1–10, 2020b. a
Kacimi, S. and Kwok, R.: Arctic Snow Depth, Ice Thickness, and Volume From ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2: 2018–2021, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097448, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097448, 2022. a, b
Kajanto, K., Straneo, F., and Nisancioglu, K.: Impact of icebergs on the seasonal submarine melt of Sermeq Kujalleq, The Cryosphere, 17, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-371-2023, 2023. a
Keen, A., Blockley, E., Bailey, D. A., Boldingh Debernard, J., Bushuk, M., Delhaye, S., Docquier, D., Feltham, D., Massonnet, F., O'Farrell, S., Ponsoni, L., Rodriguez, J. M., Schroeder, D., Swart, N., Toyoda, T., Tsujino, H., Vancoppenolle, M., and Wyser, K.: An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models, The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021. a
Kwok, R.: Variability of Nares Strait ice flux, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024768, 2005. a, b
Kwok, R.: Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: losses and coupled variability (1958–2018), Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 105005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae3ec, 2018. a
Kwok, R., Toudal Pedersen, L., Gudmandsen, P., and Pang, S.: Large sea ice outflow into the Nares Strait in 2007, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041872, 2010. a, b, c, d
Maslanik, J., Stroeve, J., Fowler, C., and Emery, W.: Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047735, 2011. a
Mellor, G. L. and Yamada, T.: Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems, Rev. Geophys., 20, 851–875, 1982. a
Meredith, M., Sommerkorn, M., Cassotta, S., Derksen, C., Ekaykin, A., Hollowed, A., Kofinas, G., Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M. M. C., Ottersen, G., Pritchard, H., and Schuur, E. A. G.: Polar Regions, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., 203–320, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.005, 2019. a
Morlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Bamber, J. L., Catania, G., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty, I., Hogan, K., Howat, I., Hubbard, A., Jakobsson, M., Jordan, T. M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L., Mouginot, J., Noël, B. P. Y., Cofaigh, C. Ó., Palmer, S., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert, M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: BedMachine v3: Complete bed topography and ocean bathymetry mapping of Greenland from multibeam echo sounding combined with mass conservation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11051–11061, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074954, 2017. a
Münchow, A.: Volume and freshwater flux observations from Nares Strait to the west of Greenland at daily time scales from 2003 to 2009, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 141–157, 2016. a
Münchow, A., Padman, L., and Fricker, H. A.: Interannual changes of the floating ice shelf of Petermann Gletscher, North Greenland, from 2000 to 2012, J. Glaciol., 60, 489–499, 2014. a
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., Lhermitte, S., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Rapid ablation zone expansion amplifies north Greenland mass loss, Sci. Adv., 5, eaaw0123, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw0123, 2019. a
Notz, D. and SIMIP Community: Arctic sea ice in CMIP6, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086749, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749, 2020. a, b
Padman, L. and Erofeeva, S.: A barotropic inverse tidal model for the Arctic Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L02303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019003, 2004. a
Peralta-Ferriz, C. and Woodgate, R. A.: Seasonal and interannual variability of pan-Arctic surface mixed layer properties from 1979 to 2012 from hydrographic data, and the dominance of stratification for multiyear mixed layer depth shoaling, Prog. Oceanogr., 134, 19–53, 2015. a
Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., and Weyer, N.: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2022/03/00_SROCC_Frontmatter_FINAL.pdf (last access: 8 December 2023), 2019. a
Prakash, A., Zhou, Q., Hattermann, T., Bao, W., Graversen, R., and Kirchner, N.: A nested high-resolution unstructured grid 3-D ocean-sea ice-ice shelf setup for numerical investigations of the Petermann ice shelf and fjord, MethodsX, 9, 101668, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2022.101668, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q
Rignot, E. and Steffen, K.: Channelized bottom melting and stability of floating ice shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031765, 2008. a, b
Rückamp, M., Neckel, N., Berger, S., Humbert, A., and Helm, V.: Calving induced speedup of Petermann glacier, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 124, 216–228, 2019. a
Sasgen, I., Wouters, B., Gardner, A. S., King, M. D., Tedesco, M., Landerer, F. W., Dahle, C., Save, H., and Fettweis, X.: Return to rapid ice loss in Greenland and record loss in 2019 detected by the GRACE-FO satellites, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 1–8, 2020. a
Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Årthun, M., Wang, S., Song, Z., Zhang, M., and Qiao, F.: Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models, Sci. Adv., 8, eabn9755, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn9755, 2022. a, b
Slater, D. A., Straneo, F., Felikson, D., Little, C. M., Goelzer, H., Fettweis, X., and Holte, J.: Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting, The Cryosphere, 13, 2489–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, 2019. a
Smagorinsky, J.: General circulation experiments with the primitive equations: I. The basic experiment, Mon. Weather Rev., 91, 99–164, 1963. a
Straneo, F. and Cenedese, C.: The dynamics of Greenland's glacial fjords and their role in climate, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 7, 89–112, 2015. a
The IMBIE Team: Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018, Nature, 579, 233–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2, 2020. a
Tsamados, M., Feltham, D., Petty, A., Schroeder, D., and Flocco, D.: Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 373, 20140167, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0167, 2015. a
Wang, M. and Overland, J. E.: A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L07502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037820, 2012. a
Washam, P., Nicholls, K. W., Münchow, A., and Padman, L.: Tidal modulation of buoyant flow and basal melt beneath Petermann Gletscher Ice Shelf, Greenland, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016427, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016427, 2020. a, b
Wilson, N., Straneo, F., and Heimbach, P.: Satellite-derived submarine melt rates and mass balance (2011–2015) for Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues, The Cryosphere, 11, 2773–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2773-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Wood, M., Rignot, E., Fenty, I., An, L., Bjørk, A., van den Broeke, M., Cai, C., Kane, E., Menemenlis, D., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Mouginot, J., Noël, B., Scheuchl, B., Velicogna, I., Willis, J. K., and Zhang, H.: Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland, Sci. Adv., 7, eaba7282, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba7282, 2021. a
Short summary
Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from...
