Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 12 Dec 2023
| 12 Dec 2023
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
Qin Zhou
Akvaplan-niva, Tromsø 9296, Norway
Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø 9296, Norway
Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, Tromsø 9019, Norway
Nina Kirchner
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
Related authors
No articles found.
Qin Zhou, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Tore Hattermann, David Gwyther, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
Adrian Dye, Robert Bryant, Francesca Falcini, Joseph Mallalieu, Miles Dimbleby, Michael Beckwith, David Rippin, and Nina Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2510, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Thermal undercutting of the terminus has driven recent rapid retreat of an Arctic glacier. Water temperatures (~4 °C) at the ice front were warmer than previously assumed and thermal undercutting was over several metres deep. This triggered phases of high calving activity, playing a substantial role in the rapid retreat of Kaskasapakte glacier since 2012, with important implications for processes occurring at glacier-water contact points and implications for hydrology and ecology downstream.
Ole Zeising, Tore Hattermann, Lars Kaleschke, Sophie Berger, Reinhard Drews, M. Reza Ershadi, Tanja Fromm, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Steinhage, and Olaf Eisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2109, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Basal melting of ice shelves impacts the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This study focuses on the Ekström Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, using multi-year data from an autonomous radar system. Results show a surprising seasonal pattern of high melt rates in winter and spring. Sea-ice growth correlates with melt rates, indicating that in winter, dense water enhances plume activity and melt rates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving future mass balance projections.
Julius Lauber, Tore Hattermann, Laura de Steur, Elin Darelius, and Agneta Fransson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-904, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have highlighted the potential vulnerability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric and oceanic changes. We present new insights from observations from three oceanic moorings below Fimbulisen Ice Shelf from 2009 to 2021. We find that relatively warm water masses reach below the ice shelf both close to the surface and at depth with implications for the basal melting of Fimbulisen.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Felicity A. Holmes, Eef van Dongen, Riko Noormets, Michał Pętlicki, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 1853–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers which end in bodies of water can lose mass through melting below the waterline, as well as by the breaking off of icebergs. We use a numerical model to simulate the breaking off of icebergs at Kronebreen, a glacier in Svalbard, and find that both melting below the waterline and tides are important for iceberg production. In addition, we compare the modelled glacier front to observations and show that melting below the waterline can lead to undercuts of up to around 25 m.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, and Tore Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5421–5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing models to MISOMIP1. The oscillation is closely related to the discretized grounding line retreat and likely strengthened by the buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and frequent ice–ocean coupling. Our model choices have a non-trivial impact on mean melt and ocean circulation strength, which might be interesting for the coupled ice–ocean community.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Coen Hofstede, Sebastian Beyer, Hugh Corr, Olaf Eisen, Tore Hattermann, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Emma C. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Ole Zeising, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 1517–1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1517-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Support Force Glacier rapidly flows into Filcher Ice Shelf of Antarctica. As we know little about this glacier and its subglacial drainage, we used seismic energy to map the transition area from grounded to floating ice where a drainage channel enters the ocean cavity. Soft sediments close to the grounding line are probably transported by this drainage channel. The constant ice thickness over the steeply dipping seabed of the ocean cavity suggests a stable transition and little basal melting.
Gong Cheng, Nina Kirchner, and Per Lötstedt
The Cryosphere, 15, 715–742, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an inverse modeling approach to improve the understanding of spatiotemporally variable processes at the inaccessible base of an ice sheet by determining the sensitivity of direct surface observations to perturbations of basal conditions. Time dependency is proved to be important in these types of problems. The effect of perturbations is analyzed based on analytical and numerical solutions.
Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, Chen Zhao, Lenneke Jong, Yuwei Xia, Xiaoran Guo, Konstantinos Petrakopoulos, Thomas Zwinger, Daniel Shapero, and John Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Claudia Wekerle, Tore Hattermann, Qiang Wang, Laura Crews, Wilken-Jon von Appen, and Sergey Danilov
Ocean Sci., 16, 1225–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1225-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The high-resolution ocean models ROMS and FESOM configured for the Fram Strait reveal very energetic ocean conditions there. The two main currents meander strongly and shed circular currents of water, called eddies. Our analysis shows that this region is characterised by small and short-lived eddies (on average around a 5 km radius and 10 d lifetime). Both models agree on eddy properties and show similar patterns of baroclinic and barotropic instability of the West Spitsbergen Current.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Tore Hattermann, Fiammetta Straneo, Hélène Seroussi, Christopher M. Little, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To predict the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise, we need to use ice sheet models. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for AR6 (ISMIP6) builds an ensemble of ice sheet projections constrained by atmosphere and ocean projections from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In this work, we present and assess a method to derive ice shelf basal melting in ISMIP6 from the CMIP6 ocean outputs, and we give examples of projected melt rates.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Katrin Lindbäck, Geir Moholdt, Keith W. Nicholls, Tore Hattermann, Bhanu Pratap, Meloth Thamban, and Kenichi Matsuoka
The Cryosphere, 13, 2579–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2579-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2579-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we used a ground-penetrating radar technique to measure melting at high precision under Nivlisen, an ice shelf in central Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. We found that summer-warmed ocean surface waters can increase melting close to the ice shelf front. Our study shows the use of and need for measurements in the field to monitor Antarctica's coastal margins; these detailed variations in basal melting are not captured in satellite data but are vital to predict future changes.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Matt O'Regan, Jan Backman, Natalia Barrientos, Thomas M. Cronin, Laura Gemery, Nina Kirchner, Larry A. Mayer, Johan Nilsson, Riko Noormets, Christof Pearce, Igor Semiletov, Christian Stranne, and Martin Jakobsson
Clim. Past, 13, 1269–1284, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1269-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1269-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Past glacial activity on the East Siberian continental margin is poorly known, partly due to the lack of geomorphological evidence. Here we present geophysical mapping and sediment coring data from the East Siberian shelf and slope revealing the presence of a glacially excavated cross-shelf trough reaching to the continental shelf edge north of the De Long Islands. The data provide direct evidence for extensive glacial activity on the Siberian shelf that predates the Last Glacial Maximum.
Johan Nilsson, Martin Jakobsson, Chris Borstad, Nina Kirchner, Göran Björk, Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, and Christian Stranne
The Cryosphere, 11, 1745–1765, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1745-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1745-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Recent data suggest that a 1 km thick ice shelf extended over the glacial Arctic Ocean during MIS 6, about 140 000 years ago. Here, we theoretically analyse the development and equilibrium features of such an ice shelf. The ice shelf was effectively dammed by the Fram Strait and the mean ice-shelf thickness was controlled primarily by the horizontally integrated mass balance. Our results can aid in resolving some outstanding questions of the state of the glacial Arctic Ocean.
J. Ahlkrona, N. Kirchner, and P. Lötstedt
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2135-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2135-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Glaciers | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Application of a regularised Coulomb sliding law to Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland
Increasing numerical stability of mountain valley glacier simulations: implementation and testing of free-surface stabilization in Elmer/Ice
Quantifying the Buttressing Contribution of Sea Ice to Crane Glacier
A new glacier thickness and bed map for Svalbard
A 3D glacier dynamics–line plume model to estimate the frontal ablation of Hansbreen, Svalbard
Reconciling ice dynamics and bed topography with a versatile and fast ice thickness inversion
Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia
Modelling the development and decay of cryoconite holes in northwestern Greenland
Thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier in the inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan
Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single-glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia
The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile
Modelling steady states and the transient response of debris-covered glaciers
Twentieth century global glacier mass change: an ensemble-based model reconstruction
Mapping the age of ice of Gauligletscher combining surface radionuclide contamination and ice flow modeling
Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE
Brief communication: Time step dependence (and fixes) in Stokes simulations of calving ice shelves
Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing
Deep learning applied to glacier evolution modelling
Initialization of a global glacier model based on present-day glacier geometry and past climate information: an ensemble approach
Contrasting thinning patterns between lake- and land-terminating glaciers in the Bhutanese Himalaya
Impact of frontal ablation on the ice thickness estimation of marine-terminating glaciers in Alaska
Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model
Buoyant forces promote tidewater glacier iceberg calving through large basal stress concentrations
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1499, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the sea ice was attached to the terminus of the glacier, it could provide a resistive stress against the glacier’s ice-flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the sea ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Ward van Pelt and Thomas Frank
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1525, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard’s glaciers is important for assessing the contribution to sea level rise in a present and future climate. However, direct observations of the glacier bed are scarce. Here, we use an inverse approach and high-resolution surface observations, to infer basal conditions. We present and analyze the new bed and thickness maps, quantify the ice volume (6,800 km3), and compare against radar data and previous studies.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Yukihiko Onuma, Koji Fujita, Nozomu Takeuchi, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 17, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in cryoconite hole (CH) depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole shape geometry. The simulations suggest that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the wind speed. The meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent ice surface darkening via the redistribution of CHs.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Loris Compagno, Matthias Huss, Evan Stewart Miles, Michael James McCarthy, Harry Zekollari, Amaury Dehecq, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1697–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution. We implement the module into a combined mass-balance ice-flow model, and we apply it using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia. We show that glacier geometry, volume, and flow velocity evolve differently when modelling explicitly debris cover compared to glacier evolution without the debris-cover module, demonstrating the importance of accounting for debris.
Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flández, Deniz Bozkurt, and Ralf Greve
The Cryosphere, 15, 3637–3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the current state and future evolution of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile (40°S, 72°W) with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. Under different global warming scenarios, we project ice mass losses between 56 % and 97 % by the end of the 21st century. We quantify the uncertainties based on an ensemble of climate models and on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium line altitude. Our results suggest a considerable deglaciation in southern Chile in the next 80 years.
James C. Ferguson and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 3377–3399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Debris-covered glaciers have a greater extent than their debris-free counterparts due to insulation from the debris cover. However, the transient response to climate change remains poorly understood. We use a numerical model that couples ice dynamics and debris transport and varies the climate signal. We find that debris cover delays the transient response, especially for the extent. However, adding cryokarst features near the terminus greatly enhances the response.
Jan-Hendrik Malles and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 3135–3157, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To better estimate the uncertainty in glacier mass change modeling during the 20th century we ran an established model with an ensemble of meteorological data sets. We find that the total ensemble uncertainty, especially in the early 20th century, when glaciological and meteorological observations at glacier locations were sparse, increases considerably compared to individual ensemble runs. This stems from regions with a lot of ice mass but few observations (e.g., Greenland periphery).
Guillaume Jouvet, Stefan Röllin, Hans Sahli, José Corcho, Lars Gnägi, Loris Compagno, Dominik Sidler, Margit Schwikowski, Andreas Bauder, and Martin Funk
The Cryosphere, 14, 4233–4251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We show that plutonium is an effective tracer to identify ice originating from the early 1960s at the surface of a mountain glacier after a long time within the ice flow, giving unique information on the long-term former ice motion. Combined with ice flow modelling, the dating can be extended to the entire glacier, and we show that an airplane which crash-landed on the Gauligletscher in 1946 will likely soon be released from the ice close to the place where pieces have emerged in recent years.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Brandon Berg and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3209–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models of ice sheets and glaciers are an important component of projecting sea level rise due to climate change. For models that seek to simulate the full balance of forces within the ice, if portions of the glacier are allowed to quickly break off in a process called iceberg calving, a numerical issue arises that can cause inaccurate results. We examine the issue and propose a solution so that future models can more accurately predict the future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, Cristian Proistosescu, Gerard Roe, Michelle Koutnik, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
Jordi Bolibar, Antoine Rabatel, Isabelle Gouttevin, Clovis Galiez, Thomas Condom, and Eric Sauquet
The Cryosphere, 14, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel approach for simulating glacier mass balances using a deep artificial neural network (i.e. deep learning) from climate and topographical data. This has been added as a component of a new open-source parameterized glacier evolution model. Deep learning is found to outperform linear machine learning methods, mainly due to its nonlinearity. Potential applications range from regional mass balance reconstructions from observations to simulations for past and future climates.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Shun Tsutaki, Koji Fujita, Takayuki Nuimura, Akiko Sakai, Shin Sugiyama, Jiro Komori, and Phuntsho Tshering
The Cryosphere, 13, 2733–2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate thickness change of Bhutanese glaciers during 2004–2011 using repeat GPS surveys and satellite-based observations. The thinning rate of Lugge Glacier (LG) is > 3 times that of Thorthormi Glacier (TG). Numerical simulations of ice dynamics and surface mass balance (SMB) demonstrate that the rapid thinning of LG is driven by both negative SMB and dynamic thinning, while the thinning of TG is minimised by a longitudinally compressive flow regime.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Cited articles
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a
Carroll, D., Sutherland, D. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Catania, G. A., and Stearns, L. A.: Modeling turbulent subglacial meltwater plumes: Implications for fjord-scale buoyancy-driven circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 2169–2185, 2015. a
Carroll, D., Sutherland, D. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Catania, G. A., and Stearns, L. A.: Subglacial discharge-driven renewal of tidewater glacier fjords, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 6611–6629, 2017. a
Chen, C., Huang, H., Beardsley, R. C., Liu, H., Xu, Q., and Cowles, G.: A finite volume numerical approach for coastal ocean circulation studies: Comparisons with finite difference models, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112, C03018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003485, 2007. a, b, c
Chen, X., Zhang, X., Church, J. A., Watson, C. S., King, M. A., Monselesan, D., Legresy, B., and Harig, C.: The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 492–495, 2017. a
Falkner, K. K., Melling, H., Münchow, A. M., Box, J. E., Wohlleben, T., Johnson, H. L., Gudmandsen, P., Samelson, R., Copland, L., Steffen, K., Rignot, E., and Higgins, A. K.: Context for the recent massive Petermann Glacier calving event, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 92, 117–118, 2011. a
Fraser, N. J., Inall, M. E., Magaldi, M. G., Haine, T. W., and Jones, S. C.: Wintertime fjord-shelf interaction and ice sheet melting in southeast Greenland, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 9156–9177, 2018. a
Galperin, B., Kantha, L., Hassid, S., and Rosati, A.: A quasi-equilibrium turbulent energy model for geophysical flows, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 55–62, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0055:AQETEM>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
Gwyther, D. E., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Dinniman, M. S., Roberts, J. L., and Hunter, J. R.: The effect of basal friction on melting and freezing in ice shelf–ocean models, Ocean Model., 95, 38–52, 2015. a
Hager, A. O., Sutherland, D. A., Amundson, J. M., Jackson, R. H., Kienholz, C., Motyka, R. J., and Nash, J. D.: Subglacial discharge reflux and buoyancy forcing drive seasonality in a silled glacial fjord, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2021JC018355, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018355, 2022. a, b
Hattermann, T., Isachsen, P. E., von Appen, W.-J., Albretsen, J., and Sundfjord, A.: Eddy-driven recirculation of Atlantic water in Fram Strait, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3406–3414, 2016. a
Hill, E. A., Carr, J. R., and Stokes, C. R.: A review of recent changes in major marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Northern Greenland, Front. Earth Sci., 4, 111, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00111, 2017. a
Hill, E. A., Carr, J. R., Stokes, C. R., and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Dynamic changes in outlet glaciers in northern Greenland from 1948 to 2015, The Cryosphere, 12, 3243–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3243-2018, 2018. a, b
Holland, M. M., Clemens-Sewall, D., Landrum, L., Light, B., Perovich, D., Polashenski, C., Smith, M., and Webster, M.: The influence of snow on sea ice as assessed from simulations of CESM2, The Cryosphere, 15, 4981–4998, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, 2021. a
Jackson, R. H., Straneo, F., and Sutherland, D. A.: Externally forced fluctuations in ocean temperature at Greenland glaciers in non-summer months, Nat. Geosci., 7, 503–508, 2014. a
Jakobsson, M., Mayer, L. A., Bringensparr, C., Castro, C. F., Mohammad, R., Johnson, P., Ketter, T., Accettella, D., Amblas, D., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Canals, M., Casamor, J. L., Chauché, N., Coakley, B., Danielson, S., Demarte, M., Dickson, M.-L., Dorschel, B., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dreutter, S., Fremand, A. C., Gallant, D., Hall, J. K., Hehemann, L., Hodnesdal, H., Hong, J., Ivaldi, R., Kane, E., Klaucke, I., Krawczyk, D. W., Kristoffersen, Y., Kuipers, B. R., Millan, R., Masetti, G., Morlighem, M., Noormets, R., Prescott, M. M., Rebesco, M., Rignot, E., Semiletov, I., Tate, A. J., Travaglini, P., Velicogna, I., Weatherall, P., Weinrebe, W., Willis, J. K., Wood, M., Zarayskaya, Y., Zhang, T., Zimmermann, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: The international bathymetric chart of the Arctic Ocean version 4.0, Sci. Data, 7, 1–14, 2020a. a
Jakobsson, M., Mayer, L. A., Nilsson, J., Stranne, C., Calder, B., O’Regan, M., Farrell, J. W., Cronin, T. M., Brüchert, V., Chawarski, J., Eriksson, B., Fredriksson, J., Gemery, L., Glueder, A., Holmes, F. A., Jerram, K., Kirchner, N., Mix, A., Muchowski, J., Prakash, A., Reilly, B., Thornton, B., Ulfsbo, A., Weidner, E., Åkesson, H., Handl, T., Ståhl, E., Boze, L.-G., Reed, S., West, G., and Padman, J.: Ryder Glacier in northwest Greenland is shielded from warm Atlantic water by a bathymetric sill, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 1–10, 2020b. a
Kacimi, S. and Kwok, R.: Arctic Snow Depth, Ice Thickness, and Volume From ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2: 2018–2021, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097448, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097448, 2022. a, b
Kajanto, K., Straneo, F., and Nisancioglu, K.: Impact of icebergs on the seasonal submarine melt of Sermeq Kujalleq, The Cryosphere, 17, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-371-2023, 2023. a
Keen, A., Blockley, E., Bailey, D. A., Boldingh Debernard, J., Bushuk, M., Delhaye, S., Docquier, D., Feltham, D., Massonnet, F., O'Farrell, S., Ponsoni, L., Rodriguez, J. M., Schroeder, D., Swart, N., Toyoda, T., Tsujino, H., Vancoppenolle, M., and Wyser, K.: An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models, The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021. a
Kwok, R.: Variability of Nares Strait ice flux, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024768, 2005. a, b
Kwok, R.: Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: losses and coupled variability (1958–2018), Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 105005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae3ec, 2018. a
Kwok, R., Toudal Pedersen, L., Gudmandsen, P., and Pang, S.: Large sea ice outflow into the Nares Strait in 2007, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041872, 2010. a, b, c, d
Maslanik, J., Stroeve, J., Fowler, C., and Emery, W.: Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047735, 2011. a
Mellor, G. L. and Yamada, T.: Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems, Rev. Geophys., 20, 851–875, 1982. a
Meredith, M., Sommerkorn, M., Cassotta, S., Derksen, C., Ekaykin, A., Hollowed, A., Kofinas, G., Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M. M. C., Ottersen, G., Pritchard, H., and Schuur, E. A. G.: Polar Regions, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., 203–320, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.005, 2019. a
Morlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Bamber, J. L., Catania, G., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty, I., Hogan, K., Howat, I., Hubbard, A., Jakobsson, M., Jordan, T. M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L., Mouginot, J., Noël, B. P. Y., Cofaigh, C. Ó., Palmer, S., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert, M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: BedMachine v3: Complete bed topography and ocean bathymetry mapping of Greenland from multibeam echo sounding combined with mass conservation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11051–11061, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074954, 2017. a
Münchow, A.: Volume and freshwater flux observations from Nares Strait to the west of Greenland at daily time scales from 2003 to 2009, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 141–157, 2016. a
Münchow, A., Padman, L., and Fricker, H. A.: Interannual changes of the floating ice shelf of Petermann Gletscher, North Greenland, from 2000 to 2012, J. Glaciol., 60, 489–499, 2014. a
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., Lhermitte, S., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Rapid ablation zone expansion amplifies north Greenland mass loss, Sci. Adv., 5, eaaw0123, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw0123, 2019. a
Notz, D. and SIMIP Community: Arctic sea ice in CMIP6, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086749, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749, 2020. a, b
Padman, L. and Erofeeva, S.: A barotropic inverse tidal model for the Arctic Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L02303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019003, 2004. a
Peralta-Ferriz, C. and Woodgate, R. A.: Seasonal and interannual variability of pan-Arctic surface mixed layer properties from 1979 to 2012 from hydrographic data, and the dominance of stratification for multiyear mixed layer depth shoaling, Prog. Oceanogr., 134, 19–53, 2015. a
Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., and Weyer, N.: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2022/03/00_SROCC_Frontmatter_FINAL.pdf (last access: 8 December 2023), 2019. a
Prakash, A., Zhou, Q., Hattermann, T., Bao, W., Graversen, R., and Kirchner, N.: A nested high-resolution unstructured grid 3-D ocean-sea ice-ice shelf setup for numerical investigations of the Petermann ice shelf and fjord, MethodsX, 9, 101668, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2022.101668, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q
Rignot, E. and Steffen, K.: Channelized bottom melting and stability of floating ice shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031765, 2008. a, b
Rückamp, M., Neckel, N., Berger, S., Humbert, A., and Helm, V.: Calving induced speedup of Petermann glacier, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 124, 216–228, 2019. a
Sasgen, I., Wouters, B., Gardner, A. S., King, M. D., Tedesco, M., Landerer, F. W., Dahle, C., Save, H., and Fettweis, X.: Return to rapid ice loss in Greenland and record loss in 2019 detected by the GRACE-FO satellites, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 1–8, 2020. a
Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Årthun, M., Wang, S., Song, Z., Zhang, M., and Qiao, F.: Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models, Sci. Adv., 8, eabn9755, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn9755, 2022. a, b
Slater, D. A., Straneo, F., Felikson, D., Little, C. M., Goelzer, H., Fettweis, X., and Holte, J.: Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting, The Cryosphere, 13, 2489–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, 2019. a
Smagorinsky, J.: General circulation experiments with the primitive equations: I. The basic experiment, Mon. Weather Rev., 91, 99–164, 1963. a
Straneo, F. and Cenedese, C.: The dynamics of Greenland's glacial fjords and their role in climate, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 7, 89–112, 2015. a
The IMBIE Team: Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018, Nature, 579, 233–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2, 2020. a
Tsamados, M., Feltham, D., Petty, A., Schroeder, D., and Flocco, D.: Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 373, 20140167, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0167, 2015. a
Wang, M. and Overland, J. E.: A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L07502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037820, 2012. a
Washam, P., Nicholls, K. W., Münchow, A., and Padman, L.: Tidal modulation of buoyant flow and basal melt beneath Petermann Gletscher Ice Shelf, Greenland, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016427, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016427, 2020. a, b
Wilson, N., Straneo, F., and Heimbach, P.: Satellite-derived submarine melt rates and mass balance (2011–2015) for Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues, The Cryosphere, 11, 2773–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2773-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Wood, M., Rignot, E., Fenty, I., An, L., Bjørk, A., van den Broeke, M., Cai, C., Kane, E., Menemenlis, D., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Mouginot, J., Noël, B., Scheuchl, B., Velicogna, I., Willis, J. K., and Zhang, H.: Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland, Sci. Adv., 7, eaba7282, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba7282, 2021. a
Short summary
Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from...
