Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022
Research article
 | 
25 Jan 2022
Research article |  | 25 Jan 2022

Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century

Katharina M. Holube, Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born

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Cited articles

Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA National Geophysical Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2009. a, b, c
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Sci. Adv., 5, eeav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a
Beyer, R., Krapp, M., and Manica, A.: An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations, Clim. Past, 16, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, 2020. a
Born, A., Imhof, M. A., and Stocker, T. F.: An efficient surface energy–mass balance model for snow and ice, The Cryosphere, 13, 1529–1546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1529-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Bougamont, M., Bamber, J. L., and Greuell, W.: A surface mass balance model for the Greenland Ice Sheet, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 110, F04018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JF000348, 2005. a, b
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Short summary
We simulated the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century by forcing a snow model with the output of many Earth system models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We quantify the contribution to uncertainty in surface mass balance of these two factors and the choice of parameters of the snow model. The results show that the differences between Earth system models are the main source of uncertainty. This effect is localised mostly near the equilibrium line.