Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
The Cryosphere, 16, 315–331, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022
The Cryosphere, 16, 315–331, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022

Research article 25 Jan 2022

Research article | 25 Jan 2022

Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century

Katharina M. Holube et al.

Data sets

ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis C. Amante and B. W. Eakins https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M

Model code and software

BESSI Tobias Zolles https://github.com/TobiasZo/BESSI/tree/TobiasZo---GSA-model-version

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Short summary
We simulated the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century by forcing a snow model with the output of many Earth system models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We quantify the contribution to uncertainty in surface mass balance of these two factors and the choice of parameters of the snow model. The results show that the differences between Earth system models are the main source of uncertainty. This effect is localised mostly near the equilibrium line.