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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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We document the spatio-temporal internal variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and its changes under anthropogenic forcing, which is key to understanding, and eventually predicting, the evolution of sea ice in response to climate change. The patterns of sea ice thickness variability remain more or less stable during pre-industrial, historical and future periods, despite non-stationarity on short timescales. These patterns start to change once Arctic summer ice-free events occur, after 2050.
TC | Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
The Cryosphere, 14, 3479–3486, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3479-2020
The Cryosphere, 14, 3479–3486, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3479-2020

Brief communication 21 Oct 2020

Brief communication | 21 Oct 2020

Brief communication: Arctic sea ice thickness internal variability and its changes under historical and anthropogenic forcing

Guillian Van Achter et al.

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Cited articles

Barnhart, K. R., Miller, C. M., Overeem, I., and Kay, E.: Mapping the future expansion of Arctic open water, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 280–285, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2848, 2016. 
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bitz, C. M., and Holland, M. M.: Influence of Initial Conditions and Climate Forcing on Predicting Arctic Sea Ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048807, 2011. 
Danabasoglu, G., Bates, S. C., Briegleb, B. P., Jayne, S. R., Jochum, M., Large, W. G., Peacock, S., and Yeager, S. G.: The CCSM4 ocean component, J. Climate, 25, 1361–1389, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1, 2012. 
Deser, C., Philips, A. S., Alexander, M. A., and Smoliak, B. V.: Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability, J. Climate, 27, 2271–2296, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1, 2014. 
Deser, C., Philips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2012. 
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Short summary
We document the spatio-temporal internal variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and its changes under anthropogenic forcing, which is key to understanding, and eventually predicting, the evolution of sea ice in response to climate change. The patterns of sea ice thickness variability remain more or less stable during pre-industrial, historical and future periods, despite non-stationarity on short timescales. These patterns start to change once Arctic summer ice-free events occur, after 2050.
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