Articles | Volume 13, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Dec 2019
Research article |
| 11 Dec 2019
| 11 Dec 2019
Initialization of a global glacier model based on present-day glacier geometry and past climate information: an ensemble approach
Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Fabien Maussion
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Ben Marzeion
Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1206, 2025
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Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
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Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Lorenz Hänchen, Cornelia Klein, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Pierluigi Calanca, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 595–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, 2022
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Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1057–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, 2021
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The oceans are typically darker than land surfaces. Expanding oceans through sea-level rise may thus lead to a darker planet Earth, reflecting less sunlight. The additionally absorbed sunlight may heat planet Earth, leading to further sea-level rise. Here, we provide a rough estimate of the strength of this feedback: it turns out to be very weak, but clearly positive, thereby destabilizing the Earth system.
Jan-Hendrik Malles and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 3135–3157, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, 2021
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To better estimate the uncertainty in glacier mass change modeling during the 20th century we ran an established model with an ensemble of meteorological data sets. We find that the total ensemble uncertainty, especially in the early 20th century, when glaciological and meteorological observations at glacier locations were sparse, increases considerably compared to individual ensemble runs. This stems from regions with a lot of ice mass but few observations (e.g., Greenland periphery).
Gerard H. Roe, John Erich Christian, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021
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The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, Lukas Langhamer, and Gina E. Moseley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, 2021
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Precipitation and moisture sources over an arid region in northeast Greenland are investigated from 1979 to 2017 by a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic driven by reanalysis data. Dominant winter moisture sources are the North Atlantic above 45° N. In summer local and north Eurasian continental sources dominate. In positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, evaporation and moisture transport from the Norwegian Sea are stronger, resulting in more precipitation.
Denise Cáceres, Ben Marzeion, Jan Hendrik Malles, Benjamin Daniel Gutknecht, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4831-2020, 2020
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We analysed how and to which extent changes in water storage on continents had an effect on global ocean mass over the period 1948–2016. Continents lost water to oceans at an accelerated rate, inducing sea level rise. Shrinking glaciers explain 81 % of the long-term continental water mass loss, while declining groundwater levels, mainly due to sustained groundwater pumping for irrigation, is the second major driver. This long-term decline was partly offset by the impoundment of water in dams.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
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Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
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We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Johannes Horak, Marlis Hofer, Fabien Maussion, Ethan Gutmann, Alexander Gohm, and Mathias W. Rotach
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2715–2734, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2715-2019, 2019
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This study presents an in-depth evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model for high-resolution precipitation fields in complex topography. ICAR is evaluated with data from weather stations located in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. While ICAR underestimates rainfall amounts, it clearly improves over a coarser global model and shows potential to generate precipitation fields for long-term impact studies focused on the local impact of a changing global climate.
Fabien Maussion, Anton Butenko, Nicolas Champollion, Matthias Dusch, Julia Eis, Kévin Fourteau, Philipp Gregor, Alexander H. Jarosch, Johannes Landmann, Felix Oesterle, Beatriz Recinos, Timo Rothenpieler, Anouk Vlug, Christian T. Wild, and Ben Marzeion
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019
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Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM; www.oggm.org), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world.
Tobias Zolles, Fabien Maussion, Stephan Peter Galos, Wolfgang Gurgiser, and Lindsey Nicholson
The Cryosphere, 13, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019, 2019
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A mass and energy balance model was subjected to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on two different Alpine glaciers. The global sensitivity analysis allowed for a mass balance measurement independent assessment of the model sensitivity and functioned as a reduction of the model free parameter space. A novel approach of a multi-objective optimization estimates the uncertainty of the simulated mass balance and the energy fluxes. The final model uncertainty is up to 1300 kg m−3 per year.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
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Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Ulrich Strasser, Thomas Marke, Ludwig Braun, Heidi Escher-Vetter, Irmgard Juen, Michael Kuhn, Fabien Maussion, Christoph Mayer, Lindsey Nicholson, Klaus Niedertscheider, Rudolf Sailer, Johann Stötter, Markus Weber, and Georg Kaser
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 151–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-151-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-151-2018, 2018
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A hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented with recordings from several research sites in the Rofental (1891–3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets are spanning 150 years and represent a unique pool of high mountain observations, enabling combined research of atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and the development of state-of-the-art hydroclimatological and glacier mass balance models.
Stephan Peter Galos, Christoph Klug, Fabien Maussion, Federico Covi, Lindsey Nicholson, Lorenzo Rieg, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Thomas Mölg, and Georg Kaser
The Cryosphere, 11, 1417–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1417-2017, 2017
Riccardo E. M. Riva, Thomas Frederikse, Matt A. King, Ben Marzeion, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 1327–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, 2017
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The reduction of ice masses stored on land has made an important contribution to sea-level rise over the last century, as well as changed the Earth's shape. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have varied strongly throughout the last century, which affects the interpretation and extrapolation of recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
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ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
S. Biskop, F. Maussion, P. Krause, and M. Fink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 209–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-209-2016, 2016
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In this study, the hydrological model J2000g was extended and applied to four selected endorheic lake basins in the southern-central part of the TP aiming to provide a more quantitative understanding of the key factors controlling their water balance. The model results indicated that the relative contribution of glacier runoff to total water inflow (between 14 and 30 %) plays a less important role compared to runoff generation from rainfall and snowmelt in non-glacierized land areas.
B. Marzeion, P. W. Leclercq, J. G. Cogley, and A. H. Jarosch
The Cryosphere, 9, 2399–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2399-2015, 2015
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We show that estimates of global glacier mass change during the 20th century, obtained from glacier-length-based reconstructions and from a glacier model driven by gridded climate observations are now consistent with each other and also with an estimate for the years 2003-2009 that is mostly based on remotely sensed data. This consistency is found throughout the entire common periods of the respective data sets. Inconsistencies of reconstructions and observations persist on regional scales.
F. Maussion, W. Gurgiser, M. Großhauser, G. Kaser, and B. Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 9, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, 2015
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Using a newly developed open-source tool, we downscale the glacier surface energy and mass balance fluxes at Shallap Glacier. This allows an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on a tropical glacier at climatological time scales (1980-2013). We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported and provide keys to understand its mechanism.
E. Collier, F. Maussion, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. W. Immerzeel, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 9, 1617–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, 2015
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We investigate the impact of surface debris on glacier energy and mass fluxes and on atmosphere-glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram range, by including debris in an interactively coupled atmosphere-glacier model. The model is run from 1 May to 1 October 2004, with a simple specification of debris thickness. We find an appreciable reduction in ablation that exceeds 5m w.e. on glacier tongues, as well as significant alterations to near-surface air temperatures and boundary layer dynamics.
J. Curio, F. Maussion, and D. Scherer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 109–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, 2015
M. Hofer, B. Marzeion, and T. Mölg
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 579–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-579-2015, 2015
E. Collier, L. I. Nicholson, B. W. Brock, F. Maussion, R. Essery, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 8, 1429–1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1429-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1429-2014, 2014
E. Dietze, F. Maussion, M. Ahlborn, B. Diekmann, K. Hartmann, K. Henkel, T. Kasper, G. Lockot, S. Opitz, and T. Haberzettl
Clim. Past, 10, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-91-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-91-2014, 2014
B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch, and J. M. Gregory
The Cryosphere, 8, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, 2014
W. Gurgiser, B. Marzeion, L. Nicholson, M. Ortner, and G. Kaser
The Cryosphere, 7, 1787–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1787-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1787-2013, 2013
E. Collier, T. Mölg, F. Maussion, D. Scherer, C. Mayer, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 7, 779–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Glaciers | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins
A minimal machine-learning glacier mass balance model
Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes
New glacier thickness and bed topography maps for Svalbard
Sea-level rise contribution from Ryder Glacier in Northern Greenland varies by an order of magnitude by 2300 depending on future emissions
Quantifying the buttressing contribution of landfast sea ice and melange to Crane Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula
Application of a regularised Coulomb sliding law to Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland
The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast
Increasing numerical stability of mountain valley glacier simulations: implementation and testing of free-surface stabilization in Elmer/Ice
A 3D glacier dynamics–line plume model to estimate the frontal ablation of Hansbreen, Svalbard
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf
Reconciling ice dynamics and bed topography with a versatile and fast ice thickness inversion
Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia
Modelling the development and decay of cryoconite holes in northwestern Greenland
Thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier in the inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan
Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single-glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia
The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile
Modelling steady states and the transient response of debris-covered glaciers
Twentieth century global glacier mass change: an ensemble-based model reconstruction
Mapping the age of ice of Gauligletscher combining surface radionuclide contamination and ice flow modeling
Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE
Brief communication: Time step dependence (and fixes) in Stokes simulations of calving ice shelves
Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing
Deep learning applied to glacier evolution modelling
Contrasting thinning patterns between lake- and land-terminating glaciers in the Bhutanese Himalaya
Impact of frontal ablation on the ice thickness estimation of marine-terminating glaciers in Alaska
Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model
Buoyant forces promote tidewater glacier iceberg calving through large basal stress concentrations
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
The Cryosphere, 19, 1491–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, 2025
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Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
Marijn van der Meer, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Jordi Bolibar, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 19, 805–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, 2025
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Glacier retreat poses big challenges, making understanding how climate affects glaciers vital. But glacier measurements worldwide are limited. We created a simple machine-learning model called miniML-MB, which estimates annual changes in glacier mass in the Swiss Alps. As input, miniML-MB uses two climate variables: average temperature (May–Aug) and total precipitation (Oct–Feb). Our model can accurately predict glacier mass from 1961 to 2021 but struggles for extreme years (2022 and 2023).
Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Emily Potter, Nilton Montoya, and Wouter Buytaert
The Cryosphere, 19, 685–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, 2025
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We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically neglected but thought to control tropical glacier retreat (e.g. sublimation). We apply the model to Peru's Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin. The model captures observed glacier mass changes,but struggles with surface albedo dynamics. Projections show glacier mass shrinking to 17 % or 6 % of 2000 levels by 2100 under moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively.
Ward van Pelt and Thomas Frank
The Cryosphere, 19, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025, 2025
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Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard's glaciers is important for assessing the contribution to sea level rise in a present and a future climate. However, direct observations of the glacier bed are scarce. Here, we use an inverse approach and high-resolution surface observations to infer basal conditions. We present and analyse the new bed and thickness maps, quantify the ice volume (6800 km3), and compare these against radar data and previous studies.
Felicity Alice Holmes, Jamie Barnett, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3839, 2024
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Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades in contrast to nearby glaciers. Here, we use a computer model to simulate Ryder Glacier until 2300 under both a low and high emissions scenario. Very high levels of surface melt under a high emissions future leads to a sea-level rise contribution an order of magnitude higher than under a low emissions future.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
The Cryosphere, 18, 5789–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, 2024
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In 2022, multi-year landfast sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the fast ice was joined to the glacier terminus, it could provide resistance against the glacier's flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the fast ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
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The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
Douglas Brinkerhoff, Brandon Tober, Michael Daniel, Victor Devaux-Chupin, Michael Christoffersen, John W. Holt, Christopher F. Larsen, Mark Fahnestock, Michael G. Loso, Kristin M. F. Timm, Russell Mitchell, and Martin Truffer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2354, 2024
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Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know that it has been rapidly thinning. To forecast how this glacier will change in the future, we combine a computer model of ice flow with measurements from many different sources. Our model tells us that with high probability, Sít' Tlein's lower reaches are going to disappear in the next century and a half, creating a new bay or lake along Alaska's coastline.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
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This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
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A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
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Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
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Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Yukihiko Onuma, Koji Fujita, Nozomu Takeuchi, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 17, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, 2023
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We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in cryoconite hole (CH) depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole shape geometry. The simulations suggest that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the wind speed. The meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent ice surface darkening via the redistribution of CHs.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
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We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Loris Compagno, Matthias Huss, Evan Stewart Miles, Michael James McCarthy, Harry Zekollari, Amaury Dehecq, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1697–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, 2022
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We present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution. We implement the module into a combined mass-balance ice-flow model, and we apply it using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia. We show that glacier geometry, volume, and flow velocity evolve differently when modelling explicitly debris cover compared to glacier evolution without the debris-cover module, demonstrating the importance of accounting for debris.
Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flández, Deniz Bozkurt, and Ralf Greve
The Cryosphere, 15, 3637–3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, 2021
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We simulate the current state and future evolution of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile (40°S, 72°W) with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. Under different global warming scenarios, we project ice mass losses between 56 % and 97 % by the end of the 21st century. We quantify the uncertainties based on an ensemble of climate models and on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium line altitude. Our results suggest a considerable deglaciation in southern Chile in the next 80 years.
James C. Ferguson and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 3377–3399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, 2021
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Debris-covered glaciers have a greater extent than their debris-free counterparts due to insulation from the debris cover. However, the transient response to climate change remains poorly understood. We use a numerical model that couples ice dynamics and debris transport and varies the climate signal. We find that debris cover delays the transient response, especially for the extent. However, adding cryokarst features near the terminus greatly enhances the response.
Jan-Hendrik Malles and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 3135–3157, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, 2021
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To better estimate the uncertainty in glacier mass change modeling during the 20th century we ran an established model with an ensemble of meteorological data sets. We find that the total ensemble uncertainty, especially in the early 20th century, when glaciological and meteorological observations at glacier locations were sparse, increases considerably compared to individual ensemble runs. This stems from regions with a lot of ice mass but few observations (e.g., Greenland periphery).
Guillaume Jouvet, Stefan Röllin, Hans Sahli, José Corcho, Lars Gnägi, Loris Compagno, Dominik Sidler, Margit Schwikowski, Andreas Bauder, and Martin Funk
The Cryosphere, 14, 4233–4251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, 2020
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We show that plutonium is an effective tracer to identify ice originating from the early 1960s at the surface of a mountain glacier after a long time within the ice flow, giving unique information on the long-term former ice motion. Combined with ice flow modelling, the dating can be extended to the entire glacier, and we show that an airplane which crash-landed on the Gauligletscher in 1946 will likely soon be released from the ice close to the place where pieces have emerged in recent years.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
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We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Brandon Berg and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3209–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, 2020
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Computer models of ice sheets and glaciers are an important component of projecting sea level rise due to climate change. For models that seek to simulate the full balance of forces within the ice, if portions of the glacier are allowed to quickly break off in a process called iceberg calving, a numerical issue arises that can cause inaccurate results. We examine the issue and propose a solution so that future models can more accurately predict the future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
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Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, Cristian Proistosescu, Gerard Roe, Michelle Koutnik, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020
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We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
Jordi Bolibar, Antoine Rabatel, Isabelle Gouttevin, Clovis Galiez, Thomas Condom, and Eric Sauquet
The Cryosphere, 14, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, 2020
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We introduce a novel approach for simulating glacier mass balances using a deep artificial neural network (i.e. deep learning) from climate and topographical data. This has been added as a component of a new open-source parameterized glacier evolution model. Deep learning is found to outperform linear machine learning methods, mainly due to its nonlinearity. Potential applications range from regional mass balance reconstructions from observations to simulations for past and future climates.
Shun Tsutaki, Koji Fujita, Takayuki Nuimura, Akiko Sakai, Shin Sugiyama, Jiro Komori, and Phuntsho Tshering
The Cryosphere, 13, 2733–2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, 2019
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We investigate thickness change of Bhutanese glaciers during 2004–2011 using repeat GPS surveys and satellite-based observations. The thinning rate of Lugge Glacier (LG) is > 3 times that of Thorthormi Glacier (TG). Numerical simulations of ice dynamics and surface mass balance (SMB) demonstrate that the rapid thinning of LG is driven by both negative SMB and dynamic thinning, while the thinning of TG is minimised by a longitudinally compressive flow regime.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
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We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
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Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
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Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
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Short summary
To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required....
