Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
The Cryosphere, 13, 113–124, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-113-2019
The Cryosphere, 13, 113–124, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-113-2019

Research article 14 Jan 2019

Research article | 14 Jan 2019

Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models

John R. Mioduszewski et al.

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Cited articles

Aksenov, Y., Popova, E. E., Yool, A., Nurser, J. G., Williams, T. D., Bertino, L., and Bergh, J.: On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice, Mar. Policy, 75, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.027, 2015. 
Bathiany, S., van der Bolt, B., Williamson, M. S., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., and Notz, D.: Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations, The Cryosphere, 10, 1631–1645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, 2016. 
Bitz, C. M. and Roe, G. H.: A mechanism for the high rate of sea ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean, J. Climate, 17, 3623–3632, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3623:AMFTHR>2.0.CO;2, 2004. 
Cavalieri, D. J. and Parkinson, C. L.: Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010, The Cryosphere, 6, 881–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-881-2012, 2012. 
Chevallier, M. and Salas-Melia, D.: The Role of Sea Ice Thickness Distribution in the Arctic Sea Ice Potential Predictability: A Diagnostic Approach with a Coupled GCM, J. Climate, 25, 3025–3038, 2012. 
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Short summary
Arctic sea ice is projected to thin substantially in every season by the end of the 21st century with a corresponding increase in its interannual variability as the rate of ice loss peaks. This typically occurs when the mean ice thickness falls between 0.2 and 0.6 m. The high variability in both growth and melt processes is the primary factor resulting in increased ice variability. This study emphasizes the importance of short-term variations in ice cover within the mean downward trend.