Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-113-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-113-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Jan 2019
Research article |
| 14 Jan 2019
| 14 Jan 2019
Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models
John R. Mioduszewski
Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Stephen Vavrus
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Muyin Wang
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, USA
Marika Holland
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Laura Landrum
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
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Cited
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution R. Newton et al. 10.1029/2021EF001988
- Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean A. Jahn et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00515-9
- Nonuniform Contribution of Internal Variability to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss M. England et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0864.1
- Two-Stream Convolutional Long- and Short-Term Memory Model Using Perceptual Loss for Sequence-to-Sequence Arctic Sea Ice Prediction J. Chi et al. 10.3390/rs13173413
- The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts M. Bennett et al. 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104178
- Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic L. Landrum & M. Holland 10.1038/s41558-020-0892-z
- Network connectivity between the winter Arctic Oscillation and summer sea ice in CMIP6 models and observations W. Gregory et al. 10.5194/tc-16-1653-2022
- Deep Learning‐Based Seasonal Forecast of Sea Ice Considering Atmospheric Conditions Y. Zhu et al. 10.1029/2023JD039521
- Evaluation of Sea Ice Radiative Forcing according to Surface Albedo and Skin Temperature over the Arctic from 1982–2015 N. Seong et al. 10.3390/rs14112512
- Influence of sea ice concentration, sex and chick age on foraging flexibility and success in an Arctic seabird A. Eby et al. 10.1093/conphys/coae057
- Extreme warming and regime shift toward amplified variability in a far northern lake P. Bégin et al. 10.1002/lno.11546
- Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice D. Bonan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abe0ec
- Interplay of anthropogenic and natural drivers of observed coupled sea surface temperature - Arctic sea ice variability P. Vaideanu et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07623-w
- The MET Norway Ice Service: a comprehensive review of the historical and future evolution, ice chart creation, and end user interaction within METAREA XIX W. Copeland et al. 10.3389/fmars.2024.1400479
- Modeled Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Cover is within Observational Uncertainty C. Wyburn-Powell et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0958.1
- Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate K. Hartmuth et al. 10.1029/2022GL102349
- Changing Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Area in a Warming Climate M. Holland et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0034.1
- Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution F. Tapiador et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.022
- Canadian polar bear population structure using genome‐wide markers E. Jensen et al. 10.1002/ece3.6159
- Observation of Bottom‐Trapped Topographic Rossby Waves on the Shelf Break of the Chukchi Sea A. Ku et al. 10.1029/2019JC015436
- Less Surface Sea Ice Melt in the CESM2 Improves Arctic Sea Ice Simulation With Minimal Non‐Polar Climate Impacts J. Kay et al. 10.1029/2021MS002679
- Multivariate state and parameter estimation with data assimilation applied to sea-ice models using a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution R. Newton et al. 10.1029/2021EF001988
- Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean A. Jahn et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00515-9
- Nonuniform Contribution of Internal Variability to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss M. England et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0864.1
- Two-Stream Convolutional Long- and Short-Term Memory Model Using Perceptual Loss for Sequence-to-Sequence Arctic Sea Ice Prediction J. Chi et al. 10.3390/rs13173413
- The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts M. Bennett et al. 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104178
- Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic L. Landrum & M. Holland 10.1038/s41558-020-0892-z
- Network connectivity between the winter Arctic Oscillation and summer sea ice in CMIP6 models and observations W. Gregory et al. 10.5194/tc-16-1653-2022
- Deep Learning‐Based Seasonal Forecast of Sea Ice Considering Atmospheric Conditions Y. Zhu et al. 10.1029/2023JD039521
- Evaluation of Sea Ice Radiative Forcing according to Surface Albedo and Skin Temperature over the Arctic from 1982–2015 N. Seong et al. 10.3390/rs14112512
- Influence of sea ice concentration, sex and chick age on foraging flexibility and success in an Arctic seabird A. Eby et al. 10.1093/conphys/coae057
- Extreme warming and regime shift toward amplified variability in a far northern lake P. Bégin et al. 10.1002/lno.11546
- Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice D. Bonan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abe0ec
- Interplay of anthropogenic and natural drivers of observed coupled sea surface temperature - Arctic sea ice variability P. Vaideanu et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07623-w
- The MET Norway Ice Service: a comprehensive review of the historical and future evolution, ice chart creation, and end user interaction within METAREA XIX W. Copeland et al. 10.3389/fmars.2024.1400479
- Modeled Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Cover is within Observational Uncertainty C. Wyburn-Powell et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0958.1
- Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate K. Hartmuth et al. 10.1029/2022GL102349
- Changing Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Area in a Warming Climate M. Holland et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0034.1
- Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution F. Tapiador et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.022
- Canadian polar bear population structure using genome‐wide markers E. Jensen et al. 10.1002/ece3.6159
- Observation of Bottom‐Trapped Topographic Rossby Waves on the Shelf Break of the Chukchi Sea A. Ku et al. 10.1029/2019JC015436
- Less Surface Sea Ice Melt in the CESM2 Improves Arctic Sea Ice Simulation With Minimal Non‐Polar Climate Impacts J. Kay et al. 10.1029/2021MS002679
- Multivariate state and parameter estimation with data assimilation applied to sea-ice models using a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024
Latest update: 26 Mar 2025
Short summary
Arctic sea ice is projected to thin substantially in every season by the end of the 21st century with a corresponding increase in its interannual variability as the rate of ice loss peaks. This typically occurs when the mean ice thickness falls between 0.2 and 0.6 m. The high variability in both growth and melt processes is the primary factor resulting in increased ice variability. This study emphasizes the importance of short-term variations in ice cover within the mean downward trend.
Arctic sea ice is projected to thin substantially in every season by the end of the 21st century...
