Articles | Volume 12, issue 6
The Cryosphere, 12, 2005–2020, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018
The Cryosphere, 12, 2005–2020, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018

Research article 15 Jun 2018

Research article | 15 Jun 2018

Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system

Takuya Nakanowatari et al.

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Short summary
Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness in the East Siberian Sea was examined, based on TOPAZ4 forecast data. Statistical examination indicates that the estimate drops abruptly at 4 days, which is related to dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations such as an Arctic cyclone. For longer lead times (> 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which represents most of the remaining prediction.