Articles | Volume 12, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018
Research article
 | 
15 Jun 2018
Research article |  | 15 Jun 2018

Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system

Takuya Nakanowatari, Jun Inoue, Kazutoshi Sato, Laurent Bertino, Jiping Xie, Mio Matsueda, Akio Yamagami, Takeshi Sugimura, Hironori Yabuki, and Natsuhiko Otsuka

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AR by Anna Wenzel on behalf of the Authors (25 Apr 2018)  Author's response
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (03 May 2018) by John Yackel
AR by Takuya Nakanowatari on behalf of the Authors (09 May 2018)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (10 May 2018) by John Yackel
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Short summary
Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness in the East Siberian Sea was examined, based on TOPAZ4 forecast data. Statistical examination indicates that the estimate drops abruptly at 4 days, which is related to dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations such as an Arctic cyclone. For longer lead times (> 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which represents most of the remaining prediction.