Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-123-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-123-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Jan 2018
Research article |
| 12 Jan 2018
| 12 Jan 2018
Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions
Nicholas C. Parazoo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, 91109, USA
Charles D. Koven
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
David M. Lawrence
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Vladimir Romanovsky
Geophysical Institute UAF, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA
Charles E. Miller
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, 91109, USA
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from combustion sources are uncertain in many places across the globe. Satellites have the ability to detect and quantify emissions from large CO2 point sources, including coal-fired power plants. In this study, we tasked two satellites to routinely observe CO2 emissions at 30 coal-fired power plants between 2021 and 2022. These results present the largest dataset of space-based CO2 emission estimates to date.
Jinsol Kim, John B. Miller, Charles E. Miller, Scott J. Lehman, Sylvia E. Michel, Vineet Yadav, Nick E. Rollins, and William M. Berelson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14425–14436, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14425-2023, 2023
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In this study, we present the partitioning of CO2 signals from biogenic, petroleum and natural gas sources by combining CO, 13CO2 and 14CO2 measurements. Using measurements from flask air samples at three sites in the greater Los Angeles region, we find larger and positive contributions of biogenic signals in winter and smaller and negative contributions in summer. The largest contribution of natural gas combustion generally occurs in summer.
Junyan Ding, Polly Buotte, Roger Bales, Bradley Christoffersen, Rosie A. Fisher, Michael Goulden, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, Jacquelyn Shuman, Chonggang Xu, and Charles D. Koven
Biogeosciences, 20, 4491–4510, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4491-2023, 2023
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We used a vegetation model to investigate how the different combinations of plant rooting depths and the sensitivity of leaves and stems to drying lead to differential responses of a pine forest to drought conditions in California, USA. We found that rooting depths are the strongest control in that ecosystem. Deep roots allow trees to fully utilize the soil water during a normal year but result in prolonged depletion of soil moisture during a severe drought and hence a high tree mortality risk.
Chonggang Xu, Bradley Christoffersen, Zachary Robbins, Ryan Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Martijn Slot, Kurt Solander, Lara Kueppers, Charles Koven, and Nate McDowell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6267–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, 2023
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We introduce a plant hydrodynamic model for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES). To better understand this new model system and its functionality in tropical forest ecosystems, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We identified the key parameters that affect the simulated plant hydrodynamics to guide both modeling and field campaign studies.
Nathan Alec Conroy, Jeffrey M. Heikoop, Emma Lathrop, Dea Musa, Brent D. Newman, Chonggang Xu, Rachael E. McCaully, Carli A. Arendt, Verity G. Salmon, Amy Breen, Vladimir Romanovsky, Katrina E. Bennett, Cathy J. Wilson, and Stan D. Wullschleger
The Cryosphere, 17, 3987–4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3987-2023, 2023
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This study combines field observations, non-parametric statistical analyses, and thermodynamic modeling to characterize the environmental causes of the spatial variability in soil pore water solute concentrations across two Arctic catchments with varying extents of permafrost. Vegetation type, soil moisture and redox conditions, weathering and hydrologic transport, and mineral solubility were all found to be the primary drivers of the existing spatial variability of some soil pore water solutes.
Vineet Yadav, Subhomoy Ghosh, and Charles E. Miller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5219–5236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023, 2023
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Measuring the performance of inversions in linear Bayesian problems is crucial in real-life applications. In this work, we provide analytical forms of the local and global sensitivities of the estimated fluxes with respect to various inputs. We provide methods to uniquely map the observational signal to spatiotemporal domains. Utilizing this, we also show techniques to assess correlations between the Jacobians that naturally translate to nonstationary covariance matrix components.
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
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Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Alexander J. Norton, A. Anthony Bloom, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Paul A. Levine, Shuang Ma, Renato K. Braghiere, and T. Luke Smallman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2455–2484, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, 2023
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This study explores how the representation of leaf phenology affects our ability to predict changes to the carbon balance of land ecosystems. We calibrate a new leaf phenology model against a diverse range of observations at six forest sites, showing that it improves the predictive capability of the processes underlying the ecosystem carbon balance. We then show how changes in temperature and rainfall affect the ecosystem carbon balance with this new model.
Danny M. Leung, Jasper F. Kok, Longlei Li, Gregory S. Okin, Catherine Prigent, Martina Klose, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Laurent Menut, Natalie M. Mahowald, David M. Lawrence, and Marcelo Chamecki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6487–6523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6487-2023, 2023
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Desert dust modeling is important for understanding climate change, as dust regulates the atmosphere's greenhouse effect and radiation. This study formulates and proposes a more physical and realistic desert dust emission scheme for global and regional climate models. By considering more aeolian processes in our emission scheme, our simulations match better against dust observations than existing schemes. We believe this work is vital in improving dust representation in climate models.
Wenfu Tang, Simone Tilmes, David M. Lawrence, Fang Li, Cenlin He, Louisa K. Emmons, Rebecca R. Buchholz, and Lili Xia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5467–5486, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023, 2023
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Globally, total wildfire burned area is projected to increase over the 21st century under scenarios without geoengineering and decrease under the two geoengineering scenarios. Geoengineering reduces fire by decreasing surface temperature and wind speed and increasing relative humidity and soil water. However, geoengineering also yields reductions in precipitation, which offset some of the fire reduction.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Charles D. Koven, Gautam Bisht, Matteo Detto, Yanyan Cheng, Nate McDowell, Helene Muller-Landau, S. Joseph Wright, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7879–7901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, 2022
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We develop a model that integrates an Earth system model with a three-dimensional hydrology model to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and water flow underneath the land surface to understand how local-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients. Our coupled model can be used to improve the understanding of the diverse impact of local heterogeneity and water flux on nutrient availability and plant communities.
Broghan M. Erland, Cristen Adams, Andrea Darlington, Mackenzie L. Smith, Andrew K. Thorpe, Gregory R. Wentworth, Steve Conley, John Liggio, Shao-Meng Li, Charles E. Miller, and John A. Gamon
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5841–5859, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5841-2022, 2022
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Accurately estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is essential to reaching net-zero goals to combat the climate crisis. Airborne box-flights are ideal for assessing regional GHG emissions, as they can attain small error. We compare two box-flight algorithms and found they produce similar results, but daily variability must be considered when deriving emissions inventories. Increasing the consistency and agreement between airborne methods moves us closer to achieving more accurate estimates.
Brendan Byrne, Junjie Liu, Yonghong Yi, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sourish Basu, Rui Cheng, Russell Doughty, Frédéric Chevallier, Kevin W. Bowman, Nicholas C. Parazoo, David Crisp, Xing Li, Jingfeng Xiao, Stephen Sitch, Bertrand Guenet, Feng Deng, Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, Patrick C. McGuire, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 19, 4779–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, 2022
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Plants draw CO2 from the atmosphere during the growing season, while respiration releases CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year, driving seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 that can be observed by satellites, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). Using OCO-2 XCO2 data and space-based constraints on plant growth, we show that permafrost-rich northeast Eurasia has a strong seasonal release of CO2 during the autumn, hinting at an unexpectedly large respiration signal from soils.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Ryan Knox, Charlie Koven, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6385–6398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, 2022
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Accounting for water movement in the soil and water transport within the plant is important for plant growth in Earth system modeling. We implemented different numerical approaches for a plant hydrodynamic model and compared their impacts on the simulated aboveground biomass (AGB) at single points and globally. We found care should be taken when discretizing the number of soil layers for numerical simulations as it can significantly affect AGB if accuracy and computational costs are of concern.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
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Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
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We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Russell Doughty, Thomas P. Kurosu, Nicholas Parazoo, Philipp Köhler, Yujie Wang, Ying Sun, and Christian Frankenberg
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1513–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1513-2022, 2022
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We describe and compare solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data produced by NASA from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and OCO-3 platforms.
Ronny Meier, Edouard L. Davin, Gordon B. Bonan, David M. Lawrence, Xiaolong Hu, Gregory Duveiller, Catherine Prigent, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2365–2393, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2365-2022, 2022
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We revise the roughness of the land surface in the CESM climate model. Guided by observational data, we increase the surface roughness of forests and decrease that of bare soil, snow, ice, and crops. These modifications alter simulated temperatures and wind speeds at and above the land surface considerably, in particular over desert regions. The revised model represents the diurnal variability of the land surface temperature better compared to satellite observations over most regions.
Yan Yang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, Paul Levine, Alexander Norton, Nicholas C. Parazoo, John T. Reager, John Worden, Gregory R. Quetin, T. Luke Smallman, Mathew Williams, Liang Xu, and Sassan Saatchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1789–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022, 2022
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Global carbon and water have large uncertainties that are hard to quantify in current regional and global models. Field observations provide opportunities for better calibration and validation of current modeling of carbon and water. With the unique structure of CARDAMOM, we have utilized the data assimilation capability and designed the benchmarking framework by using field observations in modeling. Results show that data assimilation improves model performance in different aspects.
Stephanie G. Stettz, Nicholas C. Parazoo, A. Anthony Bloom, Peter D. Blanken, David R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Brett Raczka, Alexander J. Norton, Ian Baker, Mathew Williams, Mingjie Shi, Yongguang Zhang, and Bo Qiu
Biogeosciences, 19, 541–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, 2022
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Uncertainty in the response of photosynthesis to temperature poses a major challenge to predicting the response of forests to climate change. In this paper, we study how photosynthesis in a mountainous evergreen forest is limited by temperature. This study highlights that cold temperature is a key factor that controls spring photosynthesis. Including the cold-temperature limitation in an ecosystem model improved its ability to simulate spring photosynthesis.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021
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Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Polly C. Buotte, Charles D. Koven, Chonggang Xu, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Michael L. Goulden, Samuel Levis, Jessica Katz, Junyan Ding, Wu Ma, Zachary Robbins, and Lara M. Kueppers
Biogeosciences, 18, 4473–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4473-2021, 2021
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We present an approach for ensuring the definitions of plant types in dynamic vegetation models are connected to the underlying ecological processes controlling community composition. Our approach can be applied regionally or globally. Robust resolution of community composition will allow us to use these models to address important questions related to future climate and management effects on plant community composition, structure, carbon storage, and feedbacks within the Earth system.
Wu Ma, Lu Zhai, Alexandria Pivovaroff, Jacquelyn Shuman, Polly Buotte, Junyan Ding, Bradley Christoffersen, Ryan Knox, Max Moritz, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles D. Koven, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 18, 4005–4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, 2021
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We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in live fuel moisture and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
Dien Wu, John C. Lin, Henrique F. Duarte, Vineet Yadav, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Tomohiro Oda, and Eric A. Kort
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3633–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3633-2021, 2021
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A model (SMUrF) is presented that estimates biogenic CO2 fluxes over cities around the globe to separate out biogenic fluxes from anthropogenic emissions. The model leverages satellite-based solar-induced fluorescence data and a machine-learning technique. We evaluate the biogenic fluxes against flux observations and show contrasts between biogenic and anthropogenic fluxes over cities, revealing urban–rural flux gradients, diurnal cycles, and the resulting imprints on atmospheric-column CO2.
Elizabeth B. Wiggins, Arlyn Andrews, Colm Sweeney, John B. Miller, Charles E. Miller, Sander Veraverbeke, Roisin Commane, Steven Wofsy, John M. Henderson, and James T. Randerson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8557–8574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, 2021
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We analyzed high-resolution trace gas measurements collected from a tower in Alaska during a very active fire season to improve our understanding of trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires. Our results suggest previous studies may have underestimated emissions from smoldering combustion in boreal forest fires.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
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Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Caroline A. Famiglietti, T. Luke Smallman, Paul A. Levine, Sophie Flack-Prain, Gregory R. Quetin, Victoria Meyer, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Stephanie G. Stettz, Yan Yang, Damien Bonal, A. Anthony Bloom, Mathew Williams, and Alexandra G. Konings
Biogeosciences, 18, 2727–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021, 2021
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Model uncertainty dominates the spread in terrestrial carbon cycle predictions. Efforts to reduce it typically involve adding processes, thereby increasing model complexity. However, if and how model performance scales with complexity is unclear. Using a suite of 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models, we find that increased complexity only improves skill if parameters are adequately informed. Otherwise, it can degrade skill, and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal.
Jakob Borchardt, Konstantin Gerilowski, Sven Krautwurst, Heinrich Bovensmann, Andrew K. Thorpe, David R. Thompson, Christian Frankenberg, Charles E. Miller, Riley M. Duren, and John Philip Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 1267–1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1267-2021, 2021
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The AVIRIS-NG hyperspectral imager has been used successfully to identify and quantify anthropogenic methane sources utilizing different retrieval and inversion methods. Here, we examine the adaption and application of the WFM-DOAS algorithm to AVIRIS-NG measurements to retrieve local methane column enhancements, compare the results with other retrievals, and quantify the uncertainties resulting from the retrieval method. Additionally, we estimate emissions from five detected methane plumes.
Junjie Liu, Latha Baskaran, Kevin Bowman, David Schimel, A. Anthony Bloom, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Tomohiro Oda, Dustin Carroll, Dimitris Menemenlis, Joanna Joiner, Roisin Commane, Bruce Daube, Lucianna V. Gatti, Kathryn McKain, John Miller, Britton B. Stephens, Colm Sweeney, and Steven Wofsy
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 299–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-299-2021, 2021
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On average, the terrestrial biosphere carbon sink is equivalent to ~ 20 % of fossil fuel emissions. Understanding where and why the terrestrial biosphere absorbs carbon from the atmosphere is pivotal to any mitigation policy. Here we present a regionally resolved satellite-constrained net biosphere exchange (NBE) dataset with corresponding uncertainties between 2010–2018: CMS-Flux NBE 2020. The dataset provides a unique perspective on monitoring regional contributions to the CO2 growth rate.
Yuming Jin, Ralph F. Keeling, Eric J. Morgan, Eric Ray, Nicholas C. Parazoo, and Britton B. Stephens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 217–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-217-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-217-2021, 2021
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We propose a new atmospheric coordinate (Mθe) based on equivalent potential temperature (θe) but with mass as the unit. This coordinate is useful in studying the spatial and temporal distribution of long-lived chemical tracers (CO2, CH4, O2 / N2, etc.) from sparse data, like airborne observation. Using this coordinate and sparse airborne observation (HIPPO and ATom), we resolve the Northern Hemisphere mass-weighted average CO2 seasonal cycle with high accuracy.
Katherine Dagon, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Rosie A. Fisher, and David M. Lawrence
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 223–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-223-2020, 2020
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Uncertainties in land model projections are important to understand in order to build confidence in Earth system modeling. In this paper, we introduce a framework for estimating uncertain land model parameters with machine learning. This method increases the computational efficiency of this process relative to traditional hand tuning approaches and provides objective methods to assess the results. We further identify key processes and parameters that are important for accurate land modeling.
A. Anthony Bloom, Kevin W. Bowman, Junjie Liu, Alexandra G. Konings, John R. Worden, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Victoria Meyer, John T. Reager, Helen M. Worden, Zhe Jiang, Gregory R. Quetin, T. Luke Smallman, Jean-François Exbrayat, Yi Yin, Sassan S. Saatchi, Mathew Williams, and David S. Schimel
Biogeosciences, 17, 6393–6422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6393-2020, 2020
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We use a model of the 2001–2015 tropical land carbon cycle, with satellite measurements of land and atmospheric carbon, to disentangle lagged and concurrent effects (due to past and concurrent meteorological events, respectively) on annual land–atmosphere carbon exchanges. The variability of lagged effects explains most 2001–2015 inter-annual carbon flux variations. We conclude that concurrent and lagged effects need to be accurately resolved to better predict the world's land carbon sink.
Yonghong Yi, John S. Kimball, Jennifer D. Watts, Susan M. Natali, Donatella Zona, Junjie Liu, Masahito Ueyama, Hideki Kobayashi, Walter Oechel, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 17, 5861–5882, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5861-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5861-2020, 2020
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We developed a 1 km satellite-data-driven permafrost carbon model to evaluate soil respiration sensitivity to recent snow cover changes in Alaska. Results show earlier snowmelt enhances growing-season soil respiration and reduces annual carbon uptake, while early cold-season soil respiration is linked to the number of snow-free days after the land surface freezes. Our results also show nonnegligible influences of subgrid variability in surface conditions on model-simulated CO2 seasonal cycles.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
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We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
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To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Maoyi Huang, Yi Xu, Marcos Longo, Michael Keller, Ryan G. Knox, Charles D. Koven, and Rosie A. Fisher
Biogeosciences, 17, 4999–5023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4999-2020, 2020
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The Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is enhanced to mimic the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed forest; and modifying the biomass, coarse woody debris, and litter pools. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES as part of an Earth system model.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Nicholas C. Parazoo, Troy Magney, Alex Norton, Brett Raczka, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Ian Baker, Yongguang Zhang, Bo Qiu, Mingjie Shi, Natasha MacBean, Dave R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Peter D. Blanken, Jochen Stutz, Katja Grossmann, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 17, 3733–3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3733-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3733-2020, 2020
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Satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provide a global measure of photosynthetic change. This enables scientists to better track carbon cycle responses to environmental change and tune biochemical processes in vegetation models for an improved simulation of future change. We use tower-instrumented SIF measurements and controlled model experiments to assess the state of the art in terrestrial biosphere SIF modeling and find a wide range of sensitivities to light.
Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Anna B. Harper
Biogeosciences, 17, 3589–3612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, 2020
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Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are an important set of molecules that help plants to grow and respire when photosynthesis is restricted by extreme climate events. In this paper we present a simple model of NSC storage and assess the effect that it has on simulations of vegetation at the ecosystem scale. Our model has the potential to significantly change predictions of plant behaviour in global vegetation models, which would have large implications for predictions of the future climate.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
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Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
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Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Altug Ekici, Hanna Lee, David M. Lawrence, Sean C. Swenson, and Catherine Prigent
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5291–5300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019, 2019
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Ice-rich permafrost thaw can create expanding thermokarst lakes as well as shrinking large wetlands. Such processes can have major biogeochemical implications and feedbacks to climate systems by altering the pathways and rates of permafrost carbon release. We developed a new model parameterization that allows a direct representation of surface water dynamics with subsidence. Our results show increased surface water fractions around western Siberian plains and northeastern territories of Canada.
Emmanuel Léger, Baptiste Dafflon, Yves Robert, Craig Ulrich, John E. Peterson, Sébastien C. Biraud, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, and Susan S. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 13, 2853–2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2853-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2853-2019, 2019
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We propose a new strategy called distributed temperature profiling (DTP) for improving the estimation of soil thermal properties through the use of an unprecedented number of laterally and vertically distributed temperature measurements. We tested a DTP system prototype by moving it sequentially across a discontinuous permafrost environment. The DTP enabled high-resolution identification of near-surface permafrost location and covariability with topography, vegetation, and soil properties.
Daniel H. Cusworth, Daniel J. Jacob, Daniel J. Varon, Christopher Chan Miller, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Andrew K. Thorpe, Riley M. Duren, Charles E. Miller, David R. Thompson, Christian Frankenberg, Luis Guanter, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5655–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5655-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5655-2019, 2019
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We examine the potential for global detection of methane plumes from individual point sources with the new generation of spaceborne imaging spectrometers scheduled for launch in 2019–2025. We perform methane retrievals on simulated scenes with varying surfaces and atmospheric methane concentrations. Our results suggest that imaging spectrometers in space could play a transformative role in the future for quantifying methane emissions from point sources on a global scale.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
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Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
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We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
Kevin R. Gurney, Risa Patarasuk, Jianming Liang, Yang Song, Darragh O'Keeffe, Preeti Rao, James R. Whetstone, Riley M. Duren, Annmarie Eldering, and Charles Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1309–1335, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1309-2019, 2019
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The
Hestia Projectis an effort to provide bottom-up fossil fuel (FFCO2) emissions at the urban scale with building, street, and hourly space–time resolution. Here, we report on the latest urban area for which a Hestia estimate has been completed – the Los Angeles megacity. We provide a complete description of the methods used to build the Hestia FFCO2 emissions data product and general analysis of the numerical results.
Alexandra G. Konings, A. Anthony Bloom, Junjie Liu, Nicholas C. Parazoo, David S. Schimel, and Kevin W. Bowman
Biogeosciences, 16, 2269–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2269-2019, 2019
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We estimate heterotrophic respiration (Rh) – the respiration from microbes in the soil – using satellite estimates of the net carbon flux and other quantities. Rh is an important carbon flux but is rarely studied by itself. Our method is the first to estimate how Rh varies in both space and time. The resulting new estimate of Rh is compared to the best currently available alternative, which is based on interpolating field measurements globally. The two estimates disagree and are both uncertain.
Yonghong Yi, John S. Kimball, Richard H. Chen, Mahta Moghaddam, and Charles E. Miller
The Cryosphere, 13, 197–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-197-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-197-2019, 2019
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To better understand active-layer freezing process and its climate sensitivity, we developed a new 1 km snow data set for permafrost modeling and used the model simulations with multiple new in situ and P-band radar data sets to characterize the soil freeze onset and duration of zero curtain in Arctic Alaska. Results show that zero curtains of upper soils are primarily affected by early snow cover accumulation, while zero curtains of deeper soils are more closely related to maximum thaw depth.
Jennifer W. Harden, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Katherine A. Heckman, Benjamin N. Sulman, Charles D. Koven, Chien-Lu Ping, and Gary J. Michaelson
SOIL Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2018-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2018-41, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We examined changes in soil carbon (C) associated with permafrost thaw, warming, and ecosystem shifts using a space-for-time study. Soil C turnover was estimated for soil C fractions using soil C and radiocarbon data. Observations informed a simple model to track soil C change over time. Both losses and gains of soil C occur in the profile due to shifts in C among density-separated fractions. Thawing initially resulted in C gains to mineral soil and eventually C losses as warming persists.
Kang Wang, Elchin Jafarov, Irina Overeem, Vladimir Romanovsky, Kevin Schaefer, Gary Clow, Frank Urban, William Cable, Mark Piper, Christopher Schwalm, Tingjun Zhang, Alexander Kholodov, Pamela Sousanes, Michael Loso, and Kenneth Hill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2311–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2311-2018, 2018
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Ground thermal and moisture data are important indicators of the rapid permafrost changes in the Arctic. To better understand the changes, we need a comprehensive dataset across various sites. We synthesize permafrost-related data in the state of Alaska. It should be a valuable permafrost dataset that is worth maintaining in the future. On a wider level, it also provides a prototype of basic data collection and management for permafrost regions in general.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Ashehad A. Ali, Yuanchao Fan, Marife D. Corre, Martyna M. Kotowska, Evelyn Hassler, Fernando E. Moyano, Christian Stiegler, Alexander Röll, Ana Meijide, Andre Ringeler, Christoph Leuschner, Tania June, Suria Tarigan, Holger Kreft, Dirk Hölscher, Chonggang Xu, Charles D. Koven, Rosie Fisher, Edzo Veldkamp, and Alexander Knohl
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-236, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We used carbon-use and water-use related datasets of small-holder rubber plantations from Jambi province, Indonesia to develop and calibrate a rubber plant functional type for the Community Land Model (CLM-rubber). Increased sensitivity of stomata to soil water stress and enhanced respiration costs enabled the model to capture the magnitude of transpiration and leaf area index. Including temporal variations in leaf life span enabled the model to better capture the seasonality of leaf litterfall.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Gensuo Jia
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-257, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Valerie Carranza, Talha Rafiq, Isis Frausto-Vicencio, Francesca M. Hopkins, Kristal R. Verhulst, Preeti Rao, Riley M. Duren, and Charles E. Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 653–676, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-653-2018, 2018
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We present a GIS-based approach to mapping methane emissions in areas with dense, complex source mixtures. The Vista-LA database classifies >33 000 potential methane-emitting features concentrated on <1% of the land area in California's South Coast Air Basin. The database is used for planning and analysis of atmospheric measurements, including airborne remote sensing campaigns and on-road mobile surveys focused on methane "hot-spot" detection, and development of a regional emissions inventory.
Sean Hartery, Róisín Commane, Jakob Lindaas, Colm Sweeney, John Henderson, Marikate Mountain, Nicholas Steiner, Kyle McDonald, Steven J. Dinardo, Charles E. Miller, Steven C. Wofsy, and Rachel Y.-W. Chang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 185–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-185-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-185-2018, 2018
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Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. This study uses aircraft measurements of methane from Alaska to estimate surface emissions. We found that methane emission rates depend on the soil temperature at depths where its production was taking place, and that total emissions were similar between tundra and boreal regions. These results provide a simple way to predict methane emissions in this region.
Gautam Bisht, William J. Riley, Haruko M. Wainwright, Baptiste Dafflon, Fengming Yuan, and Vladimir E. Romanovsky
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018, 2018
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The land model integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model was extended to include snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes. Simulation results at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska, showed that inclusion of SR resulted in a better agreement with observations. Excluding lateral subsurface processes had a small impact on mean states but caused a large overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and temperature.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Henrique F. Duarte, Brett M. Raczka, Daniel M. Ricciuto, John C. Lin, Charles D. Koven, Peter E. Thornton, David R. Bowling, Chun-Ta Lai, Kenneth J. Bible, and James R. Ehleringer
Biogeosciences, 14, 4315–4340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4315-2017, 2017
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We evaluate the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) against observations at an old-growth coniferous forest site that is subjected to water stress each summer. We found that, after calibration, CLM was able to reasonably simulate the observed fluxes of energy and carbon, carbon stocks, carbon isotope ratios, and ecosystem response to water stress. This study demonstrates that carbon isotopes can expose structural weaknesses in CLM and provide a key constraint that may guide future model development.
Kristal R. Verhulst, Anna Karion, Jooil Kim, Peter K. Salameh, Ralph F. Keeling, Sally Newman, John Miller, Christopher Sloop, Thomas Pongetti, Preeti Rao, Clare Wong, Francesca M. Hopkins, Vineet Yadav, Ray F. Weiss, Riley M. Duren, and Charles E. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8313–8341, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8313-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8313-2017, 2017
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We present the first carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) measurements from an extensive surface network as part of the Los Angeles Megacity Carbon Project. We describe methods that are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from complex urban environments. CO2 and CH4 levels are spatially and temporally variable, with urban sites showing significant enhancements relative to background. In 2015, the median afternoon enhancement near downtown Los Angeles was ~15 ppm CO2 and ~80 ppb CH4.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
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Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Kathrin M. Keller, Sebastian Lienert, Anil Bozbiyik, Thomas F. Stocker, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), David C. Frank, Stefan Klesse, Charles D. Koven, Markus Leuenberger, William J. Riley, Matthias Saurer, Rolf Siegwolf, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 14, 2641–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, 2017
Andrew G. Slater, David M. Lawrence, and Charles D. Koven
The Cryosphere, 11, 989–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-989-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-989-2017, 2017
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This work defines a metric for evaluation of a specific model snow process, namely, heat transfer through snow into soil. Heat transfer through snow regulates the difference in air temperature versus soil temperature. Accurate representation of the snow heat transfer process is critically important for accurate representation of the current and future state of permafrost. Utilizing this metric, we can clearly identify models that can and cannot reasonably represent snow heat transfer.
Annmarie Eldering, Chris W. O'Dell, Paul O. Wennberg, David Crisp, Michael R. Gunson, Camille Viatte, Charles Avis, Amy Braverman, Rebecca Castano, Albert Chang, Lars Chapsky, Cecilia Cheng, Brian Connor, Lan Dang, Gary Doran, Brendan Fisher, Christian Frankenberg, Dejian Fu, Robert Granat, Jonathan Hobbs, Richard A. M. Lee, Lukas Mandrake, James McDuffie, Charles E. Miller, Vicky Myers, Vijay Natraj, Denis O'Brien, Gregory B. Osterman, Fabiano Oyafuso, Vivienne H. Payne, Harold R. Pollock, Igor Polonsky, Coleen M. Roehl, Robert Rosenberg, Florian Schwandner, Mike Smyth, Vivian Tang, Thomas E. Taylor, Cathy To, Debra Wunch, and Jan Yoshimizu
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 549–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-549-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-549-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide collected in the first 18 months of the satellite mission known as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2). The paper shows maps of the carbon dioxide data, data density, and other data fields that illustrate the data quality. This mission has collected a more precise, more dense dataset of carbon dioxide then we have ever had previously.
Benjamin M. Jones, Carson A. Baughman, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Andrew D. Parsekian, Esther L. Babcock, Eva Stephani, Miriam C. Jones, Guido Grosse, and Edward E. Berg
The Cryosphere, 10, 2673–2692, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2673-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2673-2016, 2016
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We combined field data collection with remote sensing data to document the presence and rapid degradation of permafrost in south-central Alaska during 1950–present. Ground temperature measurements confirmed permafrost presence in the region, but remotely sensed images showed that permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60 % since 1950. Better understanding these vulnerable permafrost deposits is important for predicting future permafrost extent across all permafrost regions that are warming.
Clare K. Wong, Thomas J. Pongetti, Tom Oda, Preeti Rao, Kevin R. Gurney, Sally Newman, Riley M. Duren, Charles E. Miller, Yuk L. Yung, and Stanley P. Sander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13121–13130, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13121-2016, 2016
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Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas and a target of new emissions regulations in the United States. Despite its importance, its emissions are poorly understood. In this study, we used a remote sensing instrument located on Mount Wilson to estimate the monthly and annual methane emissions from Los Angeles. Derived methane emissions from Los Angeles showed consistent peaks in late summer/early fall and winter during the study period from 2011 to 2015.
William L. Cable, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, and M. Torre Jorgenson
The Cryosphere, 10, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2517-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2517-2016, 2016
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Permafrost temperatures in Alaska are increasing, yet in many areas we lack data needed to assess future changes and potential risks. In this paper we show that classifying the landscape into landcover types is an effective way to scale up permafrost temperature data collected from field monitoring sites. Based on these results, a map of mean annual ground temperature ranges at 1 m depth was produced. The map should be useful for land use decision making and identifying potential risk areas.
Jitendra Kumar, Nathan Collier, Gautam Bisht, Richard T. Mills, Peter E. Thornton, Colleen M. Iversen, and Vladimir Romanovsky
The Cryosphere, 10, 2241–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2241-2016, 2016
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Microtopography of the low-gradient polygonal tundra plays a critical role in these ecosystem; however, patterns and drivers are poorly understood. A modeling-based approach was developed in this study to characterize and represent the permafrost soils in the model and simulate the thermal dynamics using a mechanistic high-resolution model. Results shows the ability of the model to simulate the patterns and variability of thermal regimes and improve our understanding of polygonal tundra.
Brett Raczka, Henrique F. Duarte, Charles D. Koven, Daniel Ricciuto, Peter E. Thornton, John C. Lin, and David R. Bowling
Biogeosciences, 13, 5183–5204, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5183-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5183-2016, 2016
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We use carbon isotopes of CO2 to improve the performance of a land surface model, a component with earth system climate models. We found that isotope observations can provide important information related to the exchange of carbon and water from vegetation driven by environmental stress from low atmospheric moisture and nitrogen limitation. It follows that isotopes have a unique potential to improve model performance and provide insight into land surface model development.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
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The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, Dave P. Billesbach, Rachel Y.-W. Chang, Róisín Commane, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sean Hartery, Yoshinobu Harazono, Hiroki Iwata, Kyle C. McDonald, Charles E. Miller, Walter C. Oechel, Benjamin Poulter, Naama Raz-Yaseef, Colm Sweeney, Margaret Torn, Steven C. Wofsy, Zhen Zhang, and Donatella Zona
Biogeosciences, 13, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, 2016
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Wetlands are the largest global natural methane source. Peat-rich bogs and fens lying between 50°N and 70°N contribute 10–30% to this source. The predictive capability of the seasonal methane cycle can directly affect the estimation of global methane budget. We present multiscale methane seasonal emission by observations and modeling and find that the uncertainties in predicting the seasonal methane emissions are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH4 production and CH4 transport processes.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
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Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Bart van den Hurk, Hyungjun Kim, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Chris Derksen, Taikan Oki, Hervé Douville, Jeanne Colin, Agnès Ducharne, Frederique Cheruy, Nicholas Viovy, Michael J. Puma, Yoshihide Wada, Weiping Li, Binghao Jia, Andrea Alessandri, Dave M. Lawrence, Graham P. Weedon, Richard Ellis, Stefan Hagemann, Jiafu Mao, Mark G. Flanner, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Materia, Rachel M. Law, and Justin Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016
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This manuscript describes the setup of the CMIP6 project Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP).
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Sha Feng, Thomas Lauvaux, Sally Newman, Preeti Rao, Ravan Ahmadov, Aijun Deng, Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Riley M. Duren, Marc L. Fischer, Christoph Gerbig, Kevin R. Gurney, Jianhua Huang, Seongeun Jeong, Zhijin Li, Charles E. Miller, Darragh O'Keeffe, Risa Patarasuk, Stanley P. Sander, Yang Song, Kam W. Wong, and Yuk L. Yung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9019–9045, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9019-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9019-2016, 2016
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We developed a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions over the LA Basin. We evaluated various model configurations, FFCO2 products, and the impact of the model resolution. FFCO2 emissions outpace the atmospheric model resolution to represent the CO2 concentration variability across the basin. A novel forward model approach is presented to evaluate the surface measurement network, reinforcing the importance of using high-resolution emission products.
Le Kuai, John R. Worden, King-Fai Li, Glynn C. Hulley, Francesca M. Hopkins, Charles E. Miller, Simon J. Hook, Riley M. Duren, and Andrew D. Aubrey
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3165–3173, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3165-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3165-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the retrieval algorithm to estimate the lower tropospheric methane concentrations using Hyperspectral Thermal Emission Spectrometer (HyTES) airborne measurements. This project aims to map and detect methane plumes from the oil leaking or dairy emission. Our results demonstrate an example of the quantitative retrievals, imaged a big methane plume from storage tanks near Kern River Oil Field. The methane enhancement is well above the uncertainties of the estimates.
Glynn C. Hulley, Riley M. Duren, Francesca M. Hopkins, Simon J. Hook, Nick Vance, Pierre Guillevic, William R. Johnson, Bjorn T. Eng, Jonathan M. Mihaly, Veljko M. Jovanovic, Seth L. Chazanoff, Zak K. Staniszewski, Le Kuai, John Worden, Christian Frankenberg, Gerardo Rivera, Andrew D. Aubrey, Charles E. Miller, Nabin K. Malakar, Juan M. Sánchez Tomás, and Kendall T. Holmes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2393–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2393-2016, 2016
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Using data from a new airborne Hyperspectral Thermal Emission Spectrometer (HyTES) instrument, we present a technique for the detection and wide-area mapping of emission plumes of methane and other atmospheric trace gas species over challenging and diverse environmental conditions with high spatial resolution, that permits direct attribution to sources in complex environments.
Anna Karion, Colm Sweeney, John B. Miller, Arlyn E. Andrews, Roisin Commane, Steven Dinardo, John M. Henderson, Jacob Lindaas, John C. Lin, Kristina A. Luus, Tim Newberger, Pieter Tans, Steven C. Wofsy, Sonja Wolter, and Charles E. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5383–5398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5383-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5383-2016, 2016
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Northern high-latitude carbon sources and sinks, including those resulting from degrading permafrost, are thought to be sensitive to the rapidly warming climate. Here we use carbon dioxide and methane measurements from a tower near Fairbanks AK to investigate regional Alaskan fluxes of CO2 and CH4 for 2012–2014.
Susan Kulawik, Debra Wunch, Christopher O'Dell, Christian Frankenberg, Maximilian Reuter, Tomohiro Oda, Frederic Chevallier, Vanessa Sherlock, Michael Buchwitz, Greg Osterman, Charles E. Miller, Paul O. Wennberg, David Griffith, Isamu Morino, Manvendra K. Dubey, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Justus Notholt, Frank Hase, Thorsten Warneke, Ralf Sussmann, John Robinson, Kimberly Strong, Matthias Schneider, Martine De Mazière, Kei Shiomi, Dietrich G. Feist, Laura T. Iraci, and Joyce Wolf
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 683–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-683-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-683-2016, 2016
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To accurately estimate source and sink locations of carbon dioxide, systematic errors in satellite measurements and models must be characterized. This paper examines two satellite data sets (GOSAT, launched 2009, and SCIAMACHY, launched 2002), and two models (CarbonTracker and MACC) vs. the TCCON CO2 validation data set. We assess biases and errors by season and latitude, satellite performance under averaging, and diurnal variability. Our findings are useful for assimilation of satellite data.
D. R. Harp, A. L. Atchley, S. L. Painter, E. T. Coon, C. J. Wilson, V. E. Romanovsky, and J. C. Rowland
The Cryosphere, 10, 341–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-341-2016, 2016
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This paper investigates the uncertainty associated with permafrost thaw projections at an intensively monitored site. Permafrost thaw projections are simulated using a thermal hydrology model forced by a worst-case carbon emission scenario. The uncertainties associated with active layer depth, saturation state, thermal regime, and thaw duration are quantified and compared with the effects of climate model uncertainty on permafrost thaw projections.
W. Wang, A. Rinke, J. C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D. M. Lawrence, A. D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, 2016
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We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
Q. Zhu, W. J. Riley, J. Tang, and C. D. Koven
Biogeosciences, 13, 341–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, 2016
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Here we develop, calibrate, and test a nutrient competition model that accounts for multiple soil nutrients interacting with multiple biotic and abiotic consumers based on enzyme kinetics theory. Our model provides an ecologically consistent representation of nutrient competition appropriate for land biogeochemical models integrated in Earth system models.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
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We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
R. A. Fisher, S. Muszala, M. Verteinstein, P. Lawrence, C. Xu, N. G. McDowell, R. G. Knox, C. Koven, J. Holm, B. M. Rogers, A. Spessa, D. Lawrence, and G. Bonan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015
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Predicting the distribution of vegetation under novel climates is important, both to understand how climate change will impact ecosystem services, but also to understand how vegetation changes might affect the carbon, energy and water cycles. Historically, predictions have been heavily dependent upon observations of existing vegetation boundaries. In this paper, we attempt to predict ecosystem boundaries from the ``bottom up'', and illustrate the complexities and promise of this approach.
B. K. Biskaborn, J.-P. Lanckman, H. Lantuit, K. Elger, D. A. Streletskiy, W. L. Cable, and V. E. Romanovsky
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-245-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-245-2015, 2015
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This paper introduces the new database of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness data. It describes the operability of the Data Management System and the data quality. By applying statistics on GTN-P metadata, we analyze the spatial sample representation of permafrost monitoring sites. Comparison with environmental variables and climate projection data enable identification of potential future research locations.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
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Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
A. L. Atchley, S. L. Painter, D. R. Harp, E. T. Coon, C. J. Wilson, A. K. Liljedahl, and V. E. Romanovsky
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2701–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2701-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2701-2015, 2015
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Development and calibration of a process-rich model representation of thaw-depth dynamics in Arctic tundra is presented. Improved understanding of polygonal tundra thermal hydrology processes, of thermal conduction, surface and subsurface saturation and snowpack dynamics is gained by using measured field data to calibrate and refine model structure. The refined model is then used identify future data needs and observational studies.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
J. M. Henderson, J. Eluszkiewicz, M. E. Mountain, T. Nehrkorn, R. Y.-W. Chang, A. Karion, J. B. Miller, C. Sweeney, N. Steiner, S. C. Wofsy, and C. E. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 4093–4116, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-4093-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-4093-2015, 2015
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This paper describes the atmospheric modeling that underlies the science analysis for the NASA Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Summary statistics of the WRF meteorological model performance on a 3.3 km grid indicate good overall agreement with surface and radiosonde observations. The high quality of the WRF meteorological fields inspires confidence in their use to drive the STILT transport model for the purpose of computing surface influence fields (“footprints”).
K. W. Wong, D. Fu, T. J. Pongetti, S. Newman, E. A. Kort, R. Duren, Y.-K. Hsu, C. E. Miller, Y. L. Yung, and S. P. Sander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 241–252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-241-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-241-2015, 2015
G. Hugelius, J. Strauss, S. Zubrzycki, J. W. Harden, E. A. G. Schuur, C.-L. Ping, L. Schirrmeister, G. Grosse, G. J. Michaelson, C. D. Koven, J. A. O'Donnell, B. Elberling, U. Mishra, P. Camill, Z. Yu, J. Palmtag, and P. Kuhry
Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014
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This study provides an updated estimate of organic carbon stored in the northern permafrost region. The study includes estimates for carbon in soils (0 to 3 m depth) and deeper sediments in river deltas and the Yedoma region. We find that field data is still scarce from many regions. Total estimated carbon storage is ~1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of between 1100 and 1500 Pg. Around 800 Pg carbon is perennially frozen, equivalent to all carbon dioxide currently in the Earth's atmosphere.
J. B. Fisher, M. Sikka, W. C. Oechel, D. N. Huntzinger, J. R. Melton, C. D. Koven, A. Ahlström, M. A. Arain, I. Baker, J. M. Chen, P. Ciais, C. Davidson, M. Dietze, B. El-Masri, D. Hayes, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, P. E. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Poulter, D. Price, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, H. Tian, E. Tomelleri, H. Verbeeck, N. Viovy, R. Wania, N. Zeng, and C. E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 11, 4271–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
G. Hugelius, J. G. Bockheim, P. Camill, B. Elberling, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, K. Johnson, T. Jorgenson, C. D. Koven, P. Kuhry, G. Michaelson, U. Mishra, J. Palmtag, C.-L. Ping, J. O'Donnell, L. Schirrmeister, E. A. G. Schuur, Y. Sheng, L. C. Smith, J. Strauss, and Z. Yu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 393–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, 2013
C. D. Koven, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, J. Y. Tang, M. S. Torn, W. D. Collins, G. B. Bonan, D. M. Lawrence, and S. C. Swenson
Biogeosciences, 10, 7109–7131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, 2013
D. Wunch, P. O. Wennberg, J. Messerschmidt, N. C. Parazoo, G. C. Toon, N. M. Deutscher, G. Keppel-Aleks, C. M. Roehl, J. T. Randerson, T. Warneke, and J. Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9447–9459, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9447-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9447-2013, 2013
K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa
Clim. Past, 9, 1697–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, 2013
J. F. Tjiputra, C. Roelandt, M. Bentsen, D. M. Lawrence, T. Lorentzen, J. Schwinger, Ø. Seland, and C. Heinze
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 301–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, 2013
J. Y. Tang, W. J. Riley, C. D. Koven, and Z. M. Subin
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 127–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-127-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Arctic (e.g. Greenland)
Predicting avalanche danger in northern Norway using statistical models
Impact of snow thermal conductivity schemes on pan-Arctic permafrost dynamics in the Community Land Model version 5.0
Long-term development of a perennial firn aquifer on the Lomonosovfonna ice cap, Svalbard
Reconstruction of Arctic sea ice thickness (1992–2010) based on a hybrid machine learning and data assimilation approach
Brief communication: Monitoring snow depth using small, cheap, and easy-to-deploy snow–ground interface temperature sensors
Characterizing southeast Greenland fjord surface ice and freshwater flux to support biological applications
Assessing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the marginal ice zone in ocean–sea ice reanalyses
Evidence suggesting frazil ice crystal formation at the front of Hisinger Glacier in Dickson Fjord, Northeast Greenland
Sea-ice conditions from 1880 to 2017 on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf: a biomarker and observational record comparison
The radiative and geometric properties of melting first-year landfast sea ice in the Arctic
Calibrating calving parameterizations using graph neural network emulators: Application to Helheim Glacier, East Greenland
Sensitivity to forecast surface mass balance outweighs sensitivity to basal sliding descriptions for 21st century mass loss from three major Greenland outlet glaciers
Improving short-term sea ice concentration forecasts using deep learning
Validation of pan-Arctic soil temperatures in modern reanalysis and data assimilation systems
Retrieval of sea ice drift in the Fram Strait based on data from Chinese satellite HaiYang (HY-1D)
Sea-ice variations and trends during the Common Era in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean
Melt pond fractions on Arctic summer sea ice retrieved from Sentinel-3 satellite data with a constrained physical forward model
Extent, duration and timing of the sea ice cover in Hornsund, Svalbard, from 2014–2023
Recent warming trends of the Greenland ice sheet documented by historical firn and ice temperature observations and machine learning
Modeled variations in the inherent optical properties of summer Arctic ice and their effects on the radiation budget: a case based on ice cores from 2008 to 2016
Characterization of atmospheric methane release in the outer Mackenzie River delta from biogenic and thermogenic sources
Spatially heterogeneous effect of climate warming on the Arctic land ice
Comparing elevation and backscatter retrievals from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 over Arctic summer sea ice
Summer sea ice floe perimeter density in the Arctic: high-resolution optical satellite imagery and model evaluation
Patterns of wintertime Arctic sea-ice leads and their relation to winds and ocean currents
A long-term proxy for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic: 1996–2020
Arctic sea ice radar freeboard retrieval from the European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS-2) using altimetry: toward sea ice thickness observation from 1995 to 2021
Improving modelled albedo over the Greenland ice sheet through parameter optimisation and MODIS snow albedo retrievals
Hydraulic suppression of basal glacier melt in sill fjords
Direct measurement of warm Atlantic Intermediate Water close to the grounding line of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79° N) Glacier, northeast Greenland
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea
Assessment of Arctic seasonal snow cover rates of change
Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland
Winter Arctic sea ice thickness from ICESat-2: upgrades to freeboard and snow loading estimates and an assessment of the first three winters of data collection
Observed and predicted trends in Icelandic snow conditions for the period 1930–2100
Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment
Snow properties at the forest–tundra ecotone: predominance of water vapor fluxes even in deep, moderately cold snowpacks
Spatial patterns of snow distribution in the sub-Arctic
Improving model-satellite comparisons of sea ice melt onset with a satellite simulator
Accelerated mobilization of organic carbon from retrogressive thaw slumps on the northern Taymyr Peninsula
Snowfall and snow accumulation during the MOSAiC winter and spring seasons
Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen
Kara and Barents sea ice thickness estimation based on CryoSat-2 radar altimeter and Sentinel-1 dual-polarized synthetic aperture radar
Brief communication: Preliminary ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2) measurements of outlet glaciers reveal heterogeneous patterns of seasonal dynamic thickness change
Contribution of warm and moist atmospheric flow to a record minimum July sea ice extent of the Arctic in 2020
The importance of freeze–thaw cycles for lateral tracer transport in ice-wedge polygons
Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic
Lasting impact of winds on Arctic sea ice through the ocean's memory
Holocene sea-ice dynamics in Petermann Fjord in relation to ice tongue stability and Nares Strait ice arch formation
Kai-Uwe Eiselt and Rune Grand Graversen
The Cryosphere, 19, 1849–1871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1849-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1849-2025, 2025
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In this study we optimise and train a random forest model to predict avalanche danger in northern Norway based on meteorological reanalysis data. The model performance is at the low end compared to recent similar studies. A hindcast of the frequency of avalanche days (based on the avalanche-danger level) is performed from 1970 to 2024, and a correlation is found with the Arctic Oscillation. This has potential implications for longer-term avalanche predictability.
Adrien Damseaux, Heidrun Matthes, Victoria R. Dutch, Leanne Wake, and Nick Rutter
The Cryosphere, 19, 1539–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1539-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1539-2025, 2025
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Models often underestimate the role of snow cover in permafrost regions, leading to soil temperatures and permafrost dynamics inaccuracies. Through the use of a snow thermal conductivity scheme better adapted to this region, we mitigated soil temperature biases and permafrost extent overestimation within a land surface model. Our study sheds light on the importance of refining snow-related processes in models to enhance our understanding of permafrost dynamics in the context of climate change.
Tim van den Akker, Ward van Pelt, Rickard Petterson, and Veijo A. Pohjola
The Cryosphere, 19, 1513–1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1513-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1513-2025, 2025
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Liquid water can persist within old snow on glaciers and ice caps if it can percolate into the snow before it refreezes. Snow is a good insulator, and it is porous where the percolated water can be stored. If this happens, the water piles up and forms a groundwater-like system. Here, we show observations of such a groundwater-like system found in Svalbard. We demonstrate that it behaves like a groundwater system and use that to model the development of the water table from 1957 until the present day.
Léo Edel, Jiping Xie, Anton Korosov, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 19, 731–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, 2025
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This study developed a new method to estimate Arctic sea ice thickness from 1992 to 2010 using a combination of machine learning and data assimilation. By training a machine learning model on data from 2011 to 2022, past errors in sea ice thickness can be corrected, leading to improved estimations. This approach provides insights into historical changes in sea ice thickness, showing a notable decline from 1992 to 2022, and offers a valuable resource for future studies.
Claire L. Bachand, Chen Wang, Baptiste Dafflon, Lauren N. Thomas, Ian Shirley, Sarah Maebius, Colleen M. Iversen, and Katrina E. Bennett
The Cryosphere, 19, 393–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-393-2025, 2025
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Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are important for understanding changing snow patterns and impacts on frozen ground in the Arctic. In this work, we developed an approach to predict snow depth from variability in snow–ground interface temperature using small temperature sensors that are cheap and easy to deploy. This new technique enables spatially distributed and temporally continuous snowpack monitoring that has not previously been possible.
Twila A. Moon, Benjamin Cohen, Taryn E. Black, Kristin L. Laidre, Harry L. Stern, and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 18, 4845–4872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4845-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4845-2024, 2024
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The complex geomorphology of southeast Greenland (SEG) creates dynamic fjord habitats for top marine predators, featuring glacier-derived floating ice, pack and landfast sea ice, and freshwater flux. We study the physical environment of SEG fjords, focusing on surface ice conditions, to provide a regional characterization that supports biological research. As Arctic warming persists, SEG may serve as a long-term refugium for ice-dependent wildlife due to the persistence of regional ice sheets.
Francesco Cocetta, Lorenzo Zampieri, Julia Selivanova, and Doroteaciro Iovino
The Cryosphere, 18, 4687–4702, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4687-2024, 2024
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Arctic sea ice is thinning and retreating because of global warming. Thus, the region is transitioning to a new state featuring an expansion of the marginal ice zone, a region where mobile ice interacts with waves from the open ocean. By analyzing 30 years of sea ice reconstructions that combine numerical models and observations, this paper proves that an ensemble of global ocean and sea ice reanalyses is an adequate tool for investigating the changing Arctic sea ice cover.
Fleur Juliëtte Rooijakkers, Ebbe Poulsen, Eugenio Ruiz-Castillo, and Søren Rysgaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2168, 2024
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Glacier melting contributes to global sea level rise, largely because of interactions between the ocean and glacier fronts. Understanding these interactions is crucial. This study explores these processes in a fjord in the understudied Northeast Greenland, using a drone to collect data near the glacier. We discovered that meltwater refreezes when it meets the cold polar water and forms ice crystals, which then float to the surface and melt when exposed to warmer ocean temperatures.
Joanna Davies, Kirsten Fahl, Matthias Moros, Alice Carter-Champion, Henrieka Detlef, Ruediger Stein, Christof Pearce, and Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz
The Cryosphere, 18, 3415–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3415-2024, 2024
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Here, we evaluate the use of biomarkers for reconstructing sea ice between 1880 and 2017 from three sediment cores located in a transect across the Northeast Greenland continental shelf. We find that key changes, specifically the decline in sea-ice cover identified in observational records between 1971 and 1984, align with our biomarker reconstructions. This outcome supports the use of biomarkers for longer reconstructions of sea-ice cover in this region.
Nathan J. M. Laxague, Christopher J. Zappa, Andrew R. Mahoney, John Goodwin, Cyrus Harris, Robert E. Schaeffer, Roswell Schaeffer Sr., Sarah Betcher, Donna D. W. Hauser, Carson R. Witte, Jessica M. Lindsay, Ajit Subramaniam, Kate E. Turner, and Alex Whiting
The Cryosphere, 18, 3297–3313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3297-2024, 2024
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The state of sea ice strongly affects its absorption of solar energy. In May 2019, we flew uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with sensors designed to quantify the sunlight that is reflected by sea ice at each wavelength over the sea ice of Kotzebue Sound, Alaska. We found that snow patches get darker (up to ~ 20 %) as they get smaller, while bare patches get darker (up to ~ 20 %) as they get larger. We believe that this difference is due to melting around the edges of small features.
Younghyun Koo, Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and Maryam Rahnemoonfar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1620, 2024
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Calving, the breaking of ice bodies from the terminus of a glacier, plays an important role in the mass losses of Greenland ice sheets. However, calving parameters have been poorly understood because of the intensive computational demands of traditional numerical models. To address this issue and find the optimal calving parameter that best represents real observations, we develop deep-learning emulators based on graph neural network architectures.
J. Rachel Carr, Emily A. Hill, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 2719–2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024, 2024
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The Greenland Ice Sheet is one of the world's largest glaciers and is melting quickly in response to climate change. It contains fast-flowing channels of ice that move ice from Greenland's centre to its coasts and allow Greenland to react quickly to climate warming. As a result, we want to predict how these glaciers will behave in the future, but there are lots of uncertainties. Here we assess the impacts of two main sources of uncertainties in glacier models.
Cyril Palerme, Thomas Lavergne, Jozef Rusin, Arne Melsom, Julien Brajard, Are Frode Kvanum, Atle Macdonald Sørensen, Laurent Bertino, and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 18, 2161–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, 2024
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Sea ice forecasts are operationally produced using physically based models, but these forecasts are often not accurate enough for maritime operations. In this study, we developed a statistical correction technique using machine learning in order to improve the skill of short-term (up to 10 d) sea ice concentration forecasts produced by the TOPAZ4 model. This technique allows for the reduction of errors from the TOPAZ4 sea ice concentration forecasts by 41 % on average.
Tyler C. Herrington, Christopher G. Fletcher, and Heather Kropp
The Cryosphere, 18, 1835–1861, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1835-2024, 2024
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Here we validate soil temperatures from eight reanalysis products across the pan-Arctic and compare their performance to a newly calculated ensemble mean soil temperature product. We find that most product soil temperatures have a relatively large RMSE of 2–9 K. It is found that the ensemble mean product outperforms individual reanalysis products. Therefore, we recommend the ensemble mean soil temperature product for the validation of climate models and for input to hydrological models.
Dunwang Lu, Jianqiang Liu, Lijian Shi, Tao Zeng, Bin Cheng, Suhui Wu, and Manman Wang
The Cryosphere, 18, 1419–1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1419-2024, 2024
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We retrieved sea ice drift in Fram Strait using the Chinese HaiYang 1D Coastal Zone Imager. The dataset is has hourly and daily intervals for analysis, and validation is performed using a synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-based product and International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) buoys. The differences between them are explained by investigating the spatiotemporal variability in sea ice motion. The accuracy of flow direction retrieval for sea ice drift is also related to sea ice displacement.
Ana Lúcia Lindroth Dauner, Frederik Schenk, Katherine Elizabeth Power, and Maija Heikkilä
The Cryosphere, 18, 1399–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1399-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analysed 14 sea-ice proxy records and compared them with the results from two different climate simulations from the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean over the Common Era (last 2000 years). Both proxy and model approaches demonstrated a long-term sea-ice increase. The good correspondence suggests that the state-of-the-art sea-ice proxies are able to capture large-scale climate drivers. Short-term variability, however, was less coherent due to local-to-regional scale forcings.
Hannah Niehaus, Larysa Istomina, Marcel Nicolaus, Ran Tao, Aleksey Malinka, Eleonora Zege, and Gunnar Spreen
The Cryosphere, 18, 933–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-933-2024, 2024
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Melt ponds are puddles of meltwater which form on Arctic sea ice in the summer period. They are darker than the ice cover and lead to increased absorption of solar energy. Global climate models need information about the Earth's energy budget. Thus satellite observations are used to monitor the surface fractions of melt ponds, ocean, and sea ice in the entire Arctic. We present a new physically based algorithm that can separate these three surface types with uncertainty below 10 %.
Zuzanna M. Swirad, A. Malin Johansson, and Eirik Malnes
The Cryosphere, 18, 895–910, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-895-2024, 2024
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We used satellite images to create sea ice maps of Hornsund fjord, Svalbard, for nine seasons and calculated the percentage of the fjord that was covered by ice. On average, sea ice was present in Hornsund for 158 d per year, but it varied from year to year. April was the "iciest'" month and 2019/2020, 2021/22 and 2014/15 were the "iciest'" seasons. Our data can be used to understand sea ice conditions compared with other fjords of Svalbard and in studies of wave modelling and coastal erosion.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Miao Yu, Peng Lu, Matti Leppäranta, Bin Cheng, Ruibo Lei, Bingrui Li, Qingkai Wang, and Zhijun Li
The Cryosphere, 18, 273–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-273-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-273-2024, 2024
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Variations in Arctic sea ice are related not only to its macroscale properties but also to its microstructure. Arctic ice cores in the summers of 2008 to 2016 were used to analyze variations in the ice inherent optical properties related to changes in the ice microstructure. The results reveal changing ice microstructure greatly increased the amount of solar radiation transmitted to the upper ocean even when a constant ice thickness was assumed, especially in marginal ice zones.
Daniel Wesley, Scott Dallimore, Roger MacLeod, Torsten Sachs, and David Risk
The Cryosphere, 17, 5283–5297, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5283-2023, 2023
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The Mackenzie River delta (MRD) is an ecosystem with high rates of methane production from biologic and geologic sources, but little research has been done to determine how often geologic or biogenic methane is emitted to the atmosphere. Stable carbon isotope analysis was used to identify the source of CH4 at several sites. Stable carbon isotope (δ13C-CH4) signatures ranged from −42 to −88 ‰ δ13C-CH4, indicating that CH4 emission in the MRD is caused by biologic and geologic sources.
Damien Maure, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Alison Delhasse, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4645–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, 2023
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Studies have already shown that Greenland and the Canadian Arctic are experiencing a record increase in melting rates, while Svalbard has been relatively less impacted. Looking at those regions but also extending the study to Iceland and the Russian Arctic archipelagoes, we see a heterogeneity in the melting-rate response to the Arctic warming, with the Russian archipelagoes experiencing lower melting rates than other regions.
Geoffrey J. Dawson and Jack C. Landy
The Cryosphere, 17, 4165–4178, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4165-2023, 2023
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In this study, we compared measurements from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 over Arctic summer sea ice to understand any possible biases between the two satellites. We found that there is a difference when we measure elevation over summer sea ice using CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2, and this is likely due to surface melt ponds. The differences we found were in good agreement with theoretical predictions, and this work will be valuable for summer sea ice thickness measurements from both altimeters.
Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Adam William Bateson, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Christopher Horvat
The Cryosphere, 17, 3575–3591, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, 2023
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Sea ice is composed of small, discrete pieces of ice called floes, whose size distribution plays a critical role in the interactions between the sea ice, ocean and atmosphere. This study provides an assessment of sea ice models using new high-resolution floe size distribution observations, revealing considerable differences between them. These findings point not only to the limitations in models but also to the need for more high-resolution observations to validate and calibrate models.
Sascha Willmes, Günther Heinemann, and Frank Schnaase
The Cryosphere, 17, 3291–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3291-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3291-2023, 2023
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Sea ice is an important constituent of the global climate system. We here use satellite data to identify regions in the Arctic where the sea ice breaks up in so-called leads (i.e., linear cracks) regularly during winter. This information is important because leads determine, e.g., how much heat is exchanged between the ocean and the atmosphere. We here provide first insights into the reasons for the observed patterns in sea-ice leads and their relation to ocean currents and winds.
Isolde A. Glissenaar, Jack C. Landy, David G. Babb, Geoffrey J. Dawson, and Stephen E. L. Howell
The Cryosphere, 17, 3269–3289, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3269-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3269-2023, 2023
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Observations of large-scale ice thickness have unfortunately only been available since 2003, a short record for researching trends and variability. We generated a proxy for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic for 1996–2020. This is the longest available record for large-scale sea ice thickness available to date and the first record reliably covering the channels between the islands in northern Canada. The product shows that sea ice has thinned by 21 cm over the 25-year record in April.
Marion Bocquet, Sara Fleury, Fanny Piras, Eero Rinne, Heidi Sallila, Florent Garnier, and Frédérique Rémy
The Cryosphere, 17, 3013–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3013-2023, 2023
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Sea ice has a large interannual variability, and studying its evolution requires long time series of observations. In this paper, we propose the first method to extend Arctic sea ice thickness time series to the ERS-2 altimeter. The developed method is based on a neural network to calibrate past missions on the current one by taking advantage of their differences during the mission-overlap periods. Data are available as monthly maps for each year during the winter period between 1995 and 2021.
Nina Raoult, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, and Vladislav Bastrikov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2705–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, 2023
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Greenland ice sheet melting due to global warming could significantly impact global sea-level rise. The ice sheet's albedo, i.e. how reflective the surface is, affects the melting speed. The ORCHIDEE computer model is used to simulate albedo and snowmelt to make predictions. However, the albedo in ORCHIDEE is lower than that observed using satellites. To correct this, we change model parameters (e.g. the rate of snow decay) to reduce the difference between simulated and observed values.
Johan Nilsson, Eef van Dongen, Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, and Christian Stranne
The Cryosphere, 17, 2455–2476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2455-2023, 2023
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We investigate how topographical sills suppress basal glacier melt in Greenlandic fjords. The basal melt drives an exchange flow over the sill, but there is an upper flow limit set by the Atlantic Water features outside the fjord. If this limit is reached, the flow enters a new regime where the melt is suppressed and its sensitivity to the Atlantic Water temperature is reduced.
Michael J. Bentley, James A. Smith, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Margaret R. Lindeman, Brice R. Rea, Angelika Humbert, Timothy P. Lane, Christopher M. Darvill, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Fiamma Straneo, Veit Helm, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1821–1837, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, 2023
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Some of its outlet glaciers and ice shelves have been breaking up and retreating, with inflows of warm ocean water identified as the likely reason. Here we report direct measurements of warm ocean water in an unusual lake that is connected to the ocean beneath the ice shelf in front of the 79° N Glacier. This glacier has not yet shown much retreat, but the presence of warm water makes future retreat more likely.
Ole Rieke, Marius Årthun, and Jakob Simon Dörr
The Cryosphere, 17, 1445–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, 2023
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The Barents Sea is the region of most intense winter sea ice loss, and future projections show a continued decline towards ice-free conditions by the end of this century but with large fluctuations. Here we use climate model simulations to look at the occurrence and drivers of rapid ice change events in the Barents Sea that are much stronger than the average ice loss. A better understanding of these events will contribute to improved sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea.
Chris Derksen and Lawrence Mudryk
The Cryosphere, 17, 1431–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1431-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1431-2023, 2023
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We examine Arctic snow cover trends through the lens of climate assessments. We determine the sensitivity of change in snow cover extent to year-over-year increases in time series length, reference period, the use of a statistical methodology to improve inter-dataset agreement, version changes in snow products, and snow product ensemble size. By identifying the sensitivity to the range of choices available to investigators, we increase confidence in reported Arctic snow extent changes.
Younjoo J. Lee, Wieslaw Maslowski, John J. Cassano, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Anthony P. Craig, Samy Kamal, Robert Osinski, Mark W. Seefeldt, Julienne Stroeve, and Hailong Wang
The Cryosphere, 17, 233–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-233-2023, 2023
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During 1979–2020, four winter polynyas occurred in December 1986 and February 2011, 2017, and 2018 north of Greenland. Instead of ice melting due to the anomalous warm air intrusion, the extreme wind forcing resulted in greater ice transport offshore. Based on the two ensemble runs, representing a 1980s thicker ice vs. a 2010s thinner ice, a dominant cause of these winter polynyas stems from internal variability of atmospheric forcing rather than from the forced response to a warming climate.
Alek A. Petty, Nicole Keeney, Alex Cabaj, Paul Kushner, and Marco Bagnardi
The Cryosphere, 17, 127–156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-127-2023, 2023
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We present upgrades to winter Arctic sea ice thickness estimates from NASA's ICESat-2. Our new thickness results show better agreement with independent data from ESA's CryoSat-2 compared to our first data release, as well as new, very strong comparisons with data collected by moorings in the Beaufort Sea. We analyse three winters of thickness data across the Arctic, including 50 cm thinning of the multiyear ice over this 3-year period.
Darri Eythorsson, Sigurdur M. Gardarsson, Andri Gunnarsson, and Oli Gretar Blondal Sveinsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 51–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-51-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-51-2023, 2023
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In this study we researched past and predicted snow conditions in Iceland based on manual snow observations recorded in Iceland and compared these with satellite observations. Future snow conditions were predicted through numerical computer modeling based on climate models. The results showed that average snow depth and snow cover frequency have increased over the historical period but are projected to significantly decrease when projected into the future.
John E. Walsh, Hajo Eicken, Kyle Redilla, and Mark Johnson
The Cryosphere, 16, 4617–4635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4617-2022, 2022
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Indicators for the start and end of annual breakup and freeze-up of sea ice at various coastal locations around the Arctic are developed. Relative to broader offshore areas, some of the coastal indicators show an earlier freeze-up and later breakup, especially at locations where landfast ice is prominent. However, the trends towards earlier breakup and later freeze-up are unmistakable over the post-1979 period in synthesized metrics of the coastal breakup/freeze-up indicators.
Georg Lackner, Florent Domine, Daniel F. Nadeau, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 16, 3357–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3357-2022, 2022
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We compared the snowpack at two sites separated by less than 1 km, one in shrub tundra and the other one within the boreal forest. Even though the snowpack was twice as thick at the forested site, we found evidence that the vertical transport of water vapor from the bottom of the snowpack to its surface was important at both sites. The snow model Crocus simulates no water vapor fluxes and consequently failed to correctly simulate the observed density profiles.
Katrina E. Bennett, Greta Miller, Robert Busey, Min Chen, Emma R. Lathrop, Julian B. Dann, Mara Nutt, Ryan Crumley, Shannon L. Dillard, Baptiste Dafflon, Jitendra Kumar, W. Robert Bolton, Cathy J. Wilson, Colleen M. Iversen, and Stan D. Wullschleger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3269–3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3269-2022, 2022
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In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, climate shifts are changing ecosystems, resulting in alterations in snow, shrubs, and permafrost. Thicker snow under shrubs can lead to warmer permafrost because deeper snow will insulate the ground from the cold winter. In this paper, we use modeling to characterize snow to better understand the drivers of snow distribution. Eventually, this work will be used to improve models used to study future changes in Arctic and sub-Arctic snow patterns.
Abigail Smith, Alexandra Jahn, Clara Burgard, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 16, 3235–3248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022, 2022
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The timing of Arctic sea ice melt each year is an important metric for assessing how sea ice in climate models compares to satellite observations. Here, we utilize a new tool for creating more direct comparisons between climate model projections and satellite observations of Arctic sea ice, such that the melt onset dates are defined the same way. This tool allows us to identify climate model biases more clearly and gain more information about what the satellites are observing.
Philipp Bernhard, Simon Zwieback, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 16, 2819–2835, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2819-2022, 2022
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With climate change, Arctic hillslopes above ice-rich permafrost are vulnerable to enhanced carbon mobilization. In this work elevation change estimates generated from satellite observations reveal a substantial acceleration of carbon mobilization on the Taymyr Peninsula in Siberia between 2010 and 2021. The strong increase occurring in 2020 coincided with a severe Siberian heatwave and highlights that carbon mobilization can respond sharply and non-linearly to increasing temperatures.
David N. Wagner, Matthew D. Shupe, Christopher Cox, Ola G. Persson, Taneil Uttal, Markus M. Frey, Amélie Kirchgaessner, Martin Schneebeli, Matthias Jaggi, Amy R. Macfarlane, Polona Itkin, Stefanie Arndt, Stefan Hendricks, Daniela Krampe, Marcel Nicolaus, Robert Ricker, Julia Regnery, Nikolai Kolabutin, Egor Shimanshuck, Marc Oggier, Ian Raphael, Julienne Stroeve, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 16, 2373–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2373-2022, 2022
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Based on measurements of the snow cover over sea ice and atmospheric measurements, we estimate snowfall and snow accumulation for the MOSAiC ice floe, between November 2019 and May 2020. For this period, we estimate 98–114 mm of precipitation. We suggest that about 34 mm of snow water equivalent accumulated until the end of April 2020 and that at least about 50 % of the precipitated snow was eroded or sublimated. Further, we suggest explanations for potential snowfall overestimation.
Johannes Oerlemans, Jack Kohler, and Adrian Luckman
The Cryosphere, 16, 2115–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022, 2022
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Tunabreen is a 26 km long tidewater glacier. It is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past 100 years. We have modelled this glacier to find out how it reacts to future climate change. Careful calibration was done against the observed length record for the past 100 years. For a 50 m increase in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) the length of the glacier will be shortened by 10 km after about 100 years.
Juha Karvonen, Eero Rinne, Heidi Sallila, Petteri Uotila, and Marko Mäkynen
The Cryosphere, 16, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1821-2022, 2022
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We propose a method to provide sea ice thickness (SIT) estimates over a test area in the Arctic utilizing radar altimeter (RA) measurement lines and C-band SAR imagery. The RA data are from CryoSat-2, and SAR imagery is from Sentinel-1. By combining them we get a SIT grid covering the whole test area instead of only narrow measurement lines from RA. This kind of SIT estimation can be extended to cover the whole Arctic (and Antarctic) for operational SIT monitoring.
Christian J. Taubenberger, Denis Felikson, and Thomas Neumann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1341–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1341-2022, 2022
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Outlet glaciers are projected to account for half of the total ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet over the 21st century. We classify patterns of seasonal dynamic thickness changes of outlet glaciers using new observations from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). Our results reveal seven distinct patterns that differ across glaciers even within the same region. Future work can use our results to improve our understanding of processes that drive seasonal ice sheet changes.
Yu Liang, Haibo Bi, Haijun Huang, Ruibo Lei, Xi Liang, Bin Cheng, and Yunhe Wang
The Cryosphere, 16, 1107–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1107-2022, 2022
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A record minimum July sea ice extent, since 1979, was observed in 2020. Our results reveal that an anomalously high advection of energy and water vapor prevailed during spring (April to June) 2020 over regions with noticeable sea ice retreat. The large-scale atmospheric circulation and cyclones act in concert to trigger the exceptionally warm and moist flow. The convergence of the transport changed the atmospheric characteristics and the surface energy budget, thus causing a severe sea ice melt.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Daniil Svyatsky, Brent Newman, Dylan Harp, David Moulton, and Cathy Wilson
The Cryosphere, 16, 851–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-851-2022, 2022
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Recent research indicates the importance of lateral transport of dissolved carbon in the polygonal tundra, suggesting that the freeze-up period could further promote lateral carbon transport. We conducted subsurface tracer simulations on high-, flat-, and low-centered polygons to test the importance of the freeze–thaw cycle and freeze-up time for tracer mobility. Our findings illustrate the impact of hydraulic and thermal gradients on tracer mobility, as well as of the freeze-up time.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere, 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, 2022
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Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change in the surface mass balance for Antarctica is 420 Gt yr−1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr−1 (v3), and for Greenland it is −290 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Jinlei Chen, Shichang Kang, Wentao Du, Junming Guo, Min Xu, Yulan Zhang, Xinyue Zhong, Wei Zhang, and Jizu Chen
The Cryosphere, 15, 5473–5482, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021, 2021
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Sea ice is retreating with rapid warming in the Arctic. It will continue and approach the worst predicted pathway released by the IPCC. The irreversible tipping point might show around 2060 when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared. It has a huge impact on human production. Ordinary merchant ships will be able to pass the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage by the midcentury, and the opening time will advance to the next 10 years for icebreakers with moderate ice strengthening.
Qiang Wang, Sergey Danilov, Longjiang Mu, Dmitry Sidorenko, and Claudia Wekerle
The Cryosphere, 15, 4703–4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4703-2021, 2021
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Using simulations, we found that changes in ocean freshwater content induced by wind perturbations can significantly affect the Arctic sea ice drift, thickness, concentration and deformation rates years after the wind perturbations. The impact is through changes in sea surface height and surface geostrophic currents and the most pronounced in warm seasons. Such a lasting impact might become stronger in a warming climate and implies the importance of ocean initialization in sea ice prediction.
Henrieka Detlef, Brendan Reilly, Anne Jennings, Mads Mørk Jensen, Matt O'Regan, Marianne Glasius, Jesper Olsen, Martin Jakobsson, and Christof Pearce
The Cryosphere, 15, 4357–4380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4357-2021, 2021
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Here we examine the Nares Strait sea ice dynamics over the last 7000 years and their implications for the late Holocene readvance of the floating part of Petermann Glacier. We propose that the historically observed sea ice dynamics are a relatively recent feature, while most of the mid-Holocene was marked by variable sea ice conditions in Nares Strait. Nonetheless, major advances of the Petermann ice tongue were preceded by a shift towards harsher sea ice conditions in Nares Strait.
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Short summary
Carbon models suggest the permafrost carbon feedback (soil carbon emissions from permafrost thaw) acts as a slow, unobservable leak. We investigate if permafrost temperature provides an observable signal to detect feedbacks. We find a slow carbon feedback in warm sub-Arctic permafrost soils, but potentially rapid feedback in cold Arctic permafrost. This is surprising since the cold permafrost region is dominated by tundra and underlain by deep, cold permafrost thought impervious to such changes.
Carbon models suggest the permafrost carbon feedback (soil carbon emissions from permafrost...
