Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1055-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1055-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 May 2016
Research article |
| 20 May 2016
neXtSIM: a new Lagrangian sea ice model
Pierre Rampal
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre
for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Sylvain Bouillon
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre
for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Einar Ólason
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre
for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
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Rémy Lapere, Louis Marelle, Pierre Rampal, Laurent Brodeau, Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, and Jennie L. Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12107–12132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, 2024
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Elongated open-water areas in sea ice, called leads, can release marine aerosols into the atmosphere. In the Arctic, this source of atmospheric particles could play an important role for climate. However, the amount, seasonality and spatial distribution of such emissions are all mostly unknown. Here, we propose a first parameterization for sea spray aerosols emitted through leads in sea ice and quantify their impact on aerosol populations in the high Arctic.
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
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A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
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The Cryosphere, 18, 2381–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, 2024
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We explore multivariate state and parameter estimation using a data assimilation approach through idealised simulations in a dynamics-only sea-ice model based on novel rheology. We identify various potential issues that can arise in complex operational sea-ice models when model parameters are estimated. Even though further investigation will be needed for such complex sea-ice models, we show possibilities of improving the observed and the unobserved model state forecast and parameter accuracy.
Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, Yue Ying, Einar Ólason, and Timothy Williams
The Cryosphere, 17, 4223–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, 2023
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It is possible to compute sea ice motion from satellite observations and detect areas where ice converges (moves together), forms ice ridges or diverges (moves apart) and opens leads. However, it is difficult to predict the exact motion of sea ice and position of ice ridges or leads using numerical models. We propose a new method to initialise a numerical model from satellite observations to improve the accuracy of the forecasted position of leads and ridges for safer navigation.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
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Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
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This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
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Sea ice cover in the Arctic is full of cracks, which we call leads. We suspect that these leads play a role for atmosphere–ocean interactions in polar regions, but their importance remains challenging to estimate. We use a new ocean–sea ice model with an original way of representing sea ice dynamics to estimate their impact on winter sea ice production. This model successfully represents sea ice evolution from 2000 to 2018, and we find that about 30 % of ice production takes place in leads.
Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 15, 3207–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, 2021
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neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model) includes a novel and extremely realistic way of modelling sea ice dynamics – i.e. how the sea ice moves and deforms in response to the drag from winds and ocean currents. It has been developed over the last few years for a variety of applications, but this paper represents its first demonstration in a forecast context. We present results for the time period from November 2018 to June 2020 and show that it agrees well with satellite observations.
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The Cryosphere, 15, 3101–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, 2021
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Harmony is one of the Earth Explorer 10 candidates that has the chance of being selected for launch in 2028. The mission consists of two satellites that fly in formation with Sentinel-1D, which carries a side-looking radar system. By receiving Sentinel-1's signals reflected from the surface, Harmony is able to observe instantaneous elevation and two-dimensional velocity at the surface. As such, Harmony's data allow the retrieval of sea-ice drift and wave spectra in sea-ice-covered regions.
Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 15, 1053–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1053-2021, 2021
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We analyse the fractal properties observed in the pattern of the long, narrow openings that form in Arctic sea ice known as leads. We use statistical tools to explore the fractal properties of the lead fraction observed in satellite data and show that our sea-ice model neXtSIM displays the same behaviour. Building on this result we then show that the pattern of heat loss from ocean to atmosphere in the model displays similar fractal properties, stemming from the fractal properties of the leads.
Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Pierre Rampal, Einar Olason, and Camille Lique
The Cryosphere, 15, 431–457, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-431-2021, 2021
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In this study, we investigate the interactions of surface ocean waves with sea ice. We focus on the evolution of sea ice after it has been fragmented by the waves. Fragmented sea ice is expected to experience less resistance to deformation. We reproduce this evolution using a new coupling framework between a wave model and the recently developed sea ice model neXtSIM. We find that waves can significantly increase the mobility of compact sea ice over wide areas in the wake of storm events.
Pierre Rampal, Véronique Dansereau, Einar Olason, Sylvain Bouillon, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, and Abdoulaye Samaké
The Cryosphere, 13, 2457–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, 2019
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In this article, we look at how the Arctic sea ice cover, as a solid body, behaves on different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the numerical model neXtSIM uses a new approach to simulate the mechanics of sea ice and reproduce the characteristics of how sea ice deforms, as observed by satellite. We discuss the importance of this model performance in the context of simulating climate processes taking place in polar regions, like the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere.
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Ocean Sci., 14, 337–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, 2018
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The Sea surface KInematics Multiscale (SKIM) monitoring mission is a proposal for a future satellite that is designed to measure ocean currents and waves. Using a Doppler radar, the accurate measurement of currents requires the removal of the mean velocity due to ocean wave motions. This paper describes the main processing steps needed to produce currents and wave data from the radar measurements. With this technique, SKIM can provide unprecedented coverage and resolution, over the global ocean.
Matthias Rabatel, Pierre Rampal, Alberto Carrassi, Laurent Bertino, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 12, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018, 2018
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Large deviations still exist between sea ice forecasts and observations because of both missing physics in models and uncertainties on model inputs. We investigate how the new sea ice model neXtSIM is sensitive to uncertainties in the winds. We highlight and quantify the role of the internal forces in the ice on this sensitivity and show that neXtSIM is better at predicting sea ice drift than a free-drift (without internal forces) ice model and is a skilful tool for search and rescue operations.
Timothy D. Williams, Pierre Rampal, and Sylvain Bouillon
The Cryosphere, 11, 2117–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2117-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2117-2017, 2017
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As the Arctic sea ice extent drops, more ship traffic seeks to take advantage of this, and a need for better wave and sea ice forecasts arises. One aspect of this is the location of the sea ice edge. The waves here can be quite large, but they die away as they travel into the ice. This causes momentum to be transferred from the waves to the ice, causing ice drift. However, our study found that the effect of the wind drag had more impact on the ice edge position than the waves.
Kirill Khvorostovsky and Pierre Rampal
The Cryosphere, 10, 2329–2346, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2329-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2329-2016, 2016
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Pierre Rampal, Sylvain Bouillon, Jon Bergh, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 10, 1513–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1513-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1513-2016, 2016
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Due to the increasing activity in Arctic, sea-ice–ocean models are now frequently used to produce operational forecasts, for oil spill trajectory modelling and to assist in offshore operations planning. In this study we evaluate the performance of two models with respect to their capability to reproduce observed sea ice diffusion properties by using metrics based on Lagrangian statistics. This paper presents a new and useful evaluation metric for current coupled sea ice–ocean models.
Natalia Ivanova, Pierre Rampal, and Sylvain Bouillon
The Cryosphere, 10, 585–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-585-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-585-2016, 2016
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Accurate observations of lead fraction are of high importance for model evaluation and/or assimilation into models. In this work, consistent quantitative error estimation of an existing lead fraction data set obtained from passive microwave observations is completed using Synthetic Aperture Radar data. A significant bias in the data set is found, and possible improvement in the methodology is suggested, so that the pixel-wise error is reduced by a factor of 2 on average.
S. Bouillon and P. Rampal
The Cryosphere, 9, 663–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-663-2015, 2015
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We present a new method to compute sea ice deformation fields from satellite-derived motion. The method particularly reduces the artificial noise that arises along discontinuities in the sea ice motion field. We estimate that this artificial noise may cause an overestimation of about 60% of sea ice opening and closing. The constant overestimation of the opening and closing could have led in previous studies to a large overestimation of freezing in leads, salt rejection and sea ice ridging.
M. Zygmuntowska, P. Rampal, N. Ivanova, and L. H. Smedsrud
The Cryosphere, 8, 705–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-705-2014, 2014
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-348, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and useful for GIS ice sheet modelling.
Rémy Lapere, Louis Marelle, Pierre Rampal, Laurent Brodeau, Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, and Jennie L. Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12107–12132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Elongated open-water areas in sea ice, called leads, can release marine aerosols into the atmosphere. In the Arctic, this source of atmospheric particles could play an important role for climate. However, the amount, seasonality and spatial distribution of such emissions are all mostly unknown. Here, we propose a first parameterization for sea spray aerosols emitted through leads in sea ice and quantify their impact on aerosol populations in the high Arctic.
Simon Driscoll, Alberto Carrassi, Julien Brajard, Laurent Bertino, Einar Ólason, Marc Bocquet, and Amos Lawless
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2476, 2024
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The formation and evolution of sea ice melt ponds (ponds of melted water) are complex, insufficiently understood and represented in models with considerable uncertainty. These uncertain representations are not traditionally included in climate models potentially causing the known underestimation of sea ice loss in climate models. Our work creates the first observationally based machine learning model of melt ponds that is also a ready and viable candidate to be included in climate models.
Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Ed Blockley, and Einar Ólason
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-24, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
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Forecasts of sea ice are in high demand in the polar regions, they are also quickly improving and becoming more easily accessible to non-experts. We provide here a brief status of the short-term forecasting services – typically 10 days ahead – and an outlook of their upcoming developments.
Anton Korosov, Yue Ying, and Einar Olason
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2527, 2024
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We have developed a new method to improve the accuracy of sea ice models, which predict how ice moves and deforms due to wind and ocean currents. Traditional models use parameters that are often poorly defined. The new approach uses machine learning to fine-tune these parameters by comparing simulated ice drift with satellite data. The method identifies optimal settings for the model by analysing patterns in ice deformation. This results in more accurate simulations of sea ice drift forecasting.
Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6227–6247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, 2024
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We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the stabilization and reinitialization techniques currently employed in ISSM and Úa for solving level-set equations, specifically those related to the dynamic representation of moving ice fronts within numerical ice sheet models. Our results demonstrate that the streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method outperforms the other approaches. We found that excessively frequent reinitialization can lead to exceptionally high errors in simulations.
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
Joshua Cuzzone, Aaron Barth, Kelsey Barker, and Mathieu Morlighem
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2091, 2024
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum conditions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) across the Northeast United States. A complex thermal history existed for the (LIS), that allowed for high erosion across most of the NE USA, but prevented erosion across high elevation mountain peaks and areas where ice flow was slow. This has implications for geologic studies which rely on the erosional nature of the LIS to reconstruct its glacial history and landscape evolution.
Younghyun Koo, Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and Maryam Rahnemoonfar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1620, 2024
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Calving, the breaking of ice bodies from the terminus of a glacier, plays an important role in the mass losses of Greenland ice sheets. However, calving parameters have been poorly understood because of the intensive computational demands of traditional numerical models. To address this issue and find the optimal calving parameter that best represents real observations, we develop deep-learning emulators based on graph neural network architectures.
Yumeng Chen, Polly Smith, Alberto Carrassi, Ivo Pasmans, Laurent Bertino, Marc Bocquet, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Pierre Rampal, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 18, 2381–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, 2024
Short summary
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We explore multivariate state and parameter estimation using a data assimilation approach through idealised simulations in a dynamics-only sea-ice model based on novel rheology. We identify various potential issues that can arise in complex operational sea-ice models when model parameters are estimated. Even though further investigation will be needed for such complex sea-ice models, we show possibilities of improving the observed and the unobserved model state forecast and parameter accuracy.
Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Guillaume Boutin, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 18, 1791–1815, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, 2024
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This paper focuses on predicting Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power of 12 h up to 6 months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modeling with deep learning proves to be effective at capturing the complex behavior of sea ice.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
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This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Anjali Sandip, Ludovic Räss, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 899–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, 2024
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We solve momentum balance for unstructured meshes to predict ice flow for real glaciers using a pseudo-transient method on graphics processing units (GPUs) and compare it to a standard central processing unit (CPU) implementation. We justify the GPU implementation by applying the price-to-performance metric for up to million-grid-point spatial resolutions. This study represents a first step toward leveraging GPU processing power, enabling more accurate polar ice discharge predictions.
Youngmin Choi, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Alex Gardner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5499–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, 2023
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Ice sheet models are often initialized using snapshot observations of present-day conditions, but this approach has limitations in capturing the transient evolution of the system. To more accurately represent the accelerating changes in glaciers, we employed time-dependent data assimilation. We found that models calibrated with the transient data better capture past trends and more accurately reproduce changes after the calibration period, even with limited observations.
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, Mathieu Morlighem, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2793, 2023
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for monitoring mass changes. The flow displays an intra-annual variation; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing areas of the ice shelf where changes in basal melt most influence the ice flow. We suggest that basal melting partly drives the flow variability along the calving front of the ice shelf and will continue to do so in a warming world.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
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We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, Yue Ying, Einar Ólason, and Timothy Williams
The Cryosphere, 17, 4223–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, 2023
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It is possible to compute sea ice motion from satellite observations and detect areas where ice converges (moves together), forms ice ridges or diverges (moves apart) and opens leads. However, it is difficult to predict the exact motion of sea ice and position of ice ridges or leads using numerical models. We propose a new method to initialise a numerical model from satellite observations to improve the accuracy of the forecasted position of leads and ridges for safer navigation.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
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This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
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Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
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This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
Guillaume Boutin, Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, Heather Regan, Camille Lique, Claude Talandier, Laurent Brodeau, and Robert Ricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, 2023
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Sea ice cover in the Arctic is full of cracks, which we call leads. We suspect that these leads play a role for atmosphere–ocean interactions in polar regions, but their importance remains challenging to estimate. We use a new ocean–sea ice model with an original way of representing sea ice dynamics to estimate their impact on winter sea ice production. This model successfully represents sea ice evolution from 2000 to 2018, and we find that about 30 % of ice production takes place in leads.
Francesca Baldacchino, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, and Alena Malyarenko
The Cryosphere, 16, 3723–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, 2022
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf will evolve in a warming world is important to the future stability of Antarctica. It remains unclear what changes could drive the largest mass loss in the future and where places are most likely to trigger larger mass losses. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing that the RIS is sensitive to changes in environmental and glaciological controls at regions which are currently experiencing changes. These regions need to be monitored in a warming world.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Yannic Fischler, Martin Rückamp, Christian Bischof, Vadym Aizinger, Mathieu Morlighem, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3753–3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, 2022
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Ice sheet models are used to simulate the changes of ice sheets in future but are currently often run in coarse resolution and/or with neglecting important physics to make them affordable in terms of computational costs. We conducted a study simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet in high resolution and adequate physics to test where the ISSM ice sheet code is using most time and what could be done to improve its performance for future computer architectures that allow massive parallel computing.
Thomas Frank, Henning Åkesson, Basile de Fleurian, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kerim H. Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 16, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, 2022
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The shape of a fjord can promote or inhibit glacier retreat in response to climate change. We conduct experiments with a synthetic setup under idealized conditions in a numerical model to study and quantify the processes involved. We find that friction between ice and fjord is the most important factor and that it is possible to directly link ice discharge and grounding line retreat to fjord topography in a quantitative way.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Douglas Brinkerhoff
The Cryosphere, 16, 179–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, 2022
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Projecting the future evolution of Greenland and Antarctica and their potential contribution to sea level rise often relies on computer simulations carried out by numerical ice sheet models. Here we present a new vertically integrated ice sheet model and assess its performance using different benchmarks. The new model shows results comparable to a three-dimensional model at relatively lower computational cost, suggesting that it is an excellent alternative for long-term simulations.
Matt O'Regan, Thomas M. Cronin, Brendan Reilly, Aage Kristian Olsen Alstrup, Laura Gemery, Anna Golub, Larry A. Mayer, Mathieu Morlighem, Matthias Moros, Ole L. Munk, Johan Nilsson, Christof Pearce, Henrieka Detlef, Christian Stranne, Flor Vermassen, Gabriel West, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4073–4097, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4073-2021, 2021
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Ryder Glacier is a marine-terminating glacier in north Greenland discharging ice into the Lincoln Sea. Here we use marine sediment cores to reconstruct its retreat and advance behavior through the Holocene. We show that while Sherard Osborn Fjord has a physiography conducive to glacier and ice tongue stability, Ryder still retreated more than 40 km inland from its current position by the Middle Holocene. This highlights the sensitivity of north Greenland's marine glaciers to climate change.
Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 15, 3207–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, 2021
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neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model) includes a novel and extremely realistic way of modelling sea ice dynamics – i.e. how the sea ice moves and deforms in response to the drag from winds and ocean currents. It has been developed over the last few years for a variety of applications, but this paper represents its first demonstration in a forecast context. We present results for the time period from November 2018 to June 2020 and show that it agrees well with satellite observations.
Marcel Kleinherenbrink, Anton Korosov, Thomas Newman, Andreas Theodosiou, Alexander S. Komarov, Yuanhao Li, Gert Mulder, Pierre Rampal, Julienne Stroeve, and Paco Lopez-Dekker
The Cryosphere, 15, 3101–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, 2021
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Harmony is one of the Earth Explorer 10 candidates that has the chance of being selected for launch in 2028. The mission consists of two satellites that fly in formation with Sentinel-1D, which carries a side-looking radar system. By receiving Sentinel-1's signals reflected from the surface, Harmony is able to observe instantaneous elevation and two-dimensional velocity at the surface. As such, Harmony's data allow the retrieval of sea-ice drift and wave spectra in sea-ice-covered regions.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2545–2573, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021, 2021
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Numerical models are routinely used to understand the past and future behavior of ice sheets in response to climate evolution. As is always the case with numerical modeling, one needs to minimize biases and numerical artifacts due to the choice of numerical scheme employed in such models. Here, we assess different numerical schemes in time-dependent simulations of ice sheets. We also introduce a new parameterization for the driving stress, the force that drives the ice sheet flow.
Jowan M. Barnes, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Daniel Goldberg, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Mathieu Morlighem, and Jan De Rydt
The Cryosphere, 15, 1975–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, 2021
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Some properties of ice flow models must be initialised using observed data before they can be used to produce reliable predictions of the future. Different models have different ways of doing this, and the process is generally seen as being specific to an individual model. We compare the methods used by three different models and show that they produce similar outputs. We also demonstrate that the outputs from one model can be used in other models without introducing large uncertainties.
Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 15, 1053–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1053-2021, 2021
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We analyse the fractal properties observed in the pattern of the long, narrow openings that form in Arctic sea ice known as leads. We use statistical tools to explore the fractal properties of the lead fraction observed in satellite data and show that our sea-ice model neXtSIM displays the same behaviour. Building on this result we then show that the pattern of heat loss from ocean to atmosphere in the model displays similar fractal properties, stemming from the fractal properties of the leads.
Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Pierre Rampal, Einar Olason, and Camille Lique
The Cryosphere, 15, 431–457, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-431-2021, 2021
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In this study, we investigate the interactions of surface ocean waves with sea ice. We focus on the evolution of sea ice after it has been fragmented by the waves. Fragmented sea ice is expected to experience less resistance to deformation. We reproduce this evolution using a new coupling framework between a wave model and the recently developed sea ice model neXtSIM. We find that waves can significantly increase the mobility of compact sea ice over wide areas in the wake of storm events.
Xiangbin Cui, Hafeez Jeofry, Jamin S. Greenbaum, Jingxue Guo, Lin Li, Laura E. Lindzey, Feras A. Habbal, Wei Wei, Duncan A. Young, Neil Ross, Mathieu Morlighem, Lenneke M. Jong, Jason L. Roberts, Donald D. Blankenship, Sun Bo, and Martin J. Siegert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2765–2774, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2765-2020, 2020
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We present a topographic digital elevation model (DEM) for Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), East Antarctica. The DEM covers an area of approximately 900 000 km2 and was built from radio-echo sounding data collected in four campaigns since 2015. Previously, to generate the Bedmap2 topographic product, PEL’s bed was characterised from low-resolution satellite gravity data across an otherwise large (>200 km wide) data-free zone.
Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Mathieu Morlighem, Surendra Adhikari, Thomas Frederikse, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Erik Ivins, Benjamin Hamlington, Robert Kopp, and Sophie Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4925–4941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, 2020
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ISSM-SLPS is a new projection system for future sea level that increases the resolution and accuracy of current projection systems and improves the way uncertainty is treated in such projections. This will pave the way for better inclusion of state-of-the-art results from existing intercomparison efforts carried out by the scientific community, such as GlacierMIP2 or ISMIP6, into sea-level projections.
Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Helene Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4491–4501, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4491-2020, 2020
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We present enthalpy formulations within the Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System model that show better performance than earlier implementations. A first experiment indicates that the treatment of discontinuous conductivities of the solid–fluid system with a geometric mean produce accurate results when applied to coarse vertical resolutions. In a second experiment, we propose a novel stabilization formulation that avoids the problem of thin elements. This method provides accurate and stable results.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
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We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Donald A. Slater, Denis Felikson, Fiamma Straneo, Heiko Goelzer, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Xavier Fettweis, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020
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Changes in the ocean around Greenland play an important role in determining how much the ice sheet will contribute to global sea level over the coming century. However, capturing these links in models is very challenging. This paper presents a strategy enabling an ensemble of ice sheet models to feel the effect of the ocean for the first time and should therefore result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Pierre Rampal, Véronique Dansereau, Einar Olason, Sylvain Bouillon, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, and Abdoulaye Samaké
The Cryosphere, 13, 2457–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, 2019
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In this article, we look at how the Arctic sea ice cover, as a solid body, behaves on different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the numerical model neXtSIM uses a new approach to simulate the mechanics of sea ice and reproduce the characteristics of how sea ice deforms, as observed by satellite. We discuss the importance of this model performance in the context of simulating climate processes taking place in polar regions, like the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere.
Ali Aydoğdu, Alberto Carrassi, Colin T. Guider, Chris K. R. T Jones, and Pierre Rampal
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-175-2019, 2019
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Computational models involving adaptive meshes can both evolve dynamically and be remeshed. Remeshing means that the state vector dimension changes in time and across ensemble members, making the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) unsuitable for assimilation of observational data. We develop a modification in which analysis is performed on a fixed uniform grid onto which the ensemble is mapped, with resolution relating to the remeshing criteria. The approach is successfully tested on two 1-D models.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Tyler Pelle, Mathieu Morlighem, and Johannes H. Bondzio
The Cryosphere, 13, 1043–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019, 2019
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How ocean-induced melt under floating ice shelves will change as ocean currents evolve remains a big uncertainty in projections of sea level rise. In this study, we combine two of the most recently developed melt models to form PICOP, which overcomes the limitations of past models and produces accurate ice shelf melt rates. We find that our model is easy to set up and computationally efficient, providing researchers an important tool to improve the accuracy of their future glacial projections.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Mathieu Morlighem, Eric Larour, Jason P. Briner, Helene Seroussi, and Lambert Caron
The Cryosphere, 13, 879–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-879-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-879-2019, 2019
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We present ice sheet modeling results of ice retreat over southwestern Greenland during the last 12 000 years, and we also test the impact that model horizontal resolution has on differences in the simulated spatial retreat and its associated rate. Results indicate that model resolution plays a minor role in simulated retreat in areas where bed topography is not complex but plays an important role in areas where bed topography is complex (such as fjords).
Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Wood, Hélène Seroussi, Youngmin Choi, and Eric Rignot
The Cryosphere, 13, 723–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, 2019
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Many glaciers along the coast of Greenland have been retreating. It has been suggested that this retreat is triggered by the presence of warm water in the fjords, and surface melt at the top of the ice sheet is exacerbating this problem. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of northwestern Greenland to further warming using a numerical model. We find that in current conditions, this sector alone will contribute more than 1 cm to sea rise level by 2100, and up to 3 cm in the most extreme scenario.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, Hélène Seroussi, Philippe Remy Bernard Devloo, and Jefferson Cardia Simões
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 215–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-215-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-215-2019, 2019
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The reduction of numerical errors in ice sheet modeling increases the results' accuracy reliability. We improve numerical accuracy by better capturing grounding line dynamics, while maintaining a low computational cost. We implement an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) technique in the Ice Sheet System Model and compare AMR simulations with uniformly refined meshes. Our results show that the computational time with AMR is significantly shorter than for uniformly refined meshes for a given accuracy.
Hongju Yu, Eric Rignot, Helene Seroussi, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 3861–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018, 2018
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Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, has experienced rapid grounding line retreat and mass loss in the past decades. In this study, we simulate the evolution of Thwaites Glacier over the next century using different model configurations. Overall, we estimate a 5 mm contribution to global sea level rise from Thwaites Glacier in the next 30 years. However, a 300 % uncertainty is found over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm, depending on the model setup.
Youngmin Choi, Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Wood, and Johannes H. Bondzio
The Cryosphere, 12, 3735–3746, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3735-2018, 2018
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Calving is an important mechanism that controls the dynamics of Greenland outlet glaciers. We test and compare four calving laws and assess which calving law has better predictive abilities. Overall, the calving law based on von Mises stress is more satisfactory than other laws, but new parameterizations should be derived to better capture the detailed processes involved in calving.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Michael P. Schodlok, Eric Y. Larour, Carmen Boening, Daniel Limonadi, Michael M. Watkins, Mathieu Morlighem, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3511–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, 2018
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Using NASA supercomputers and a novel framework, in which Sandia National Laboratories' statistical software is embedded in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's ice sheet model, we run a range of 100-year warming scenarios for Antarctica. We find that 1.2 m of sea level contribution is achievable, but not likely. Also, we find that bedrock topography beneath the ice drives potential for regional sea level contribution, highlighting the need for accurate bedrock mapping of the ice sheet interior.
Veronika Emetc, Paul Tregoning, Mathieu Morlighem, Chris Borstad, and Malcolm Sambridge
The Cryosphere, 12, 3187–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018, 2018
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The paper includes a model that can be used to predict zones of fracture formation in both floating and grounded ice in Antarctica. We used observations and a statistics-based model to predict fractures in most ice shelves in Antarctica as an alternative to the damage-based approach. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84% for grounded ice and 61% for floating ice and mean overestimation error of 26% and 20%, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 3085–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, 2018
Chen Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Roland C. Warner, Matt A. King, Thomas Zwinger, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 2637–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018, 2018
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A combination of computer modelling and observational data were used to infer the resistance to ice flow at the bed of the Fleming Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula. The model was also used to simulate the distribution of temperature within the ice, which governs the rate at which the ice can deform. This is especially important for glaciers like the Fleming Glacier, which has both regions of rapid deformation and regions of rapid sliding at the bed.
Chen Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Roland C. Warner, Matt A. King, Thomas Zwinger, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 2653–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2653-2018, 2018
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A combination of computer modelling and observational data were used to infer the resistance to ice flow at the bed of the Fleming Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula in both 2008 and 2015. The comparison suggests the grounding line retreated by ~ 9 km from 2008 to 2015. The retreat may be enhanced by a positive feedback between friction, melting and sliding at the glacier bed.
Aleah Sommers, Harihar Rajaram, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2955–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2955-2018, 2018
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Meltwater drainage beneath glaciers and ice sheets influences how fast they move and is complicated and constantly changing. Most models distinguish between
fastand
slowdrainage with different equations for each system. The SHAKTI model allows for the ice–water drainage arrangement to transition naturally between different types of flow. This model can be used to understand how drainage affects glacier speeds and the associated ice loss to further inform predictions of sea level rise.
Anton Andreevich Korosov, Pierre Rampal, Leif Toudal Pedersen, Roberto Saldo, Yufang Ye, Georg Heygster, Thomas Lavergne, Signe Aaboe, and Fanny Girard-Ardhuin
The Cryosphere, 12, 2073–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2073-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2073-2018, 2018
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A new algorithm for estimating sea ice age in the Arctic is presented. The algorithm accounts for motion, deformation, melting and freezing of sea ice and uses daily sea ice drift and sea ice concentration products. The major advantage of the new algorithm is the ability to generate individual ice age fractions in each pixel or, in other words, to provide a frequency distribution of the ice age. Multi-year ice concentration can be computed as a sum of all ice fractions older than 1 year.
Fabrice Ardhuin, Yevgueny Aksenov, Alvise Benetazzo, Laurent Bertino, Peter Brandt, Eric Caubet, Bertrand Chapron, Fabrice Collard, Sophie Cravatte, Jean-Marc Delouis, Frederic Dias, Gérald Dibarboure, Lucile Gaultier, Johnny Johannessen, Anton Korosov, Georgy Manucharyan, Dimitris Menemenlis, Melisa Menendez, Goulven Monnier, Alexis Mouche, Frédéric Nouguier, George Nurser, Pierre Rampal, Ad Reniers, Ernesto Rodriguez, Justin Stopa, Céline Tison, Clément Ubelmann, Erik van Sebille, and Jiping Xie
Ocean Sci., 14, 337–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, 2018
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The Sea surface KInematics Multiscale (SKIM) monitoring mission is a proposal for a future satellite that is designed to measure ocean currents and waves. Using a Doppler radar, the accurate measurement of currents requires the removal of the mean velocity due to ocean wave motions. This paper describes the main processing steps needed to produce currents and wave data from the radar measurements. With this technique, SKIM can provide unprecedented coverage and resolution, over the global ocean.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Mathieu Morlighem, Eric Larour, Nicole Schlegel, and Helene Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1683–1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1683-2018, 2018
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This paper details the implementation of higher-order vertical finite elements in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). When using higher-order vertical finite elements, fewer vertical layers are needed to accurately capture the thermal structure in an ice sheet versus a conventional linear vertical interpolation, therefore greatly improving model runtime speeds, particularly in higher-order stress balance ice sheet models. The implications for paleoclimate ice sheet simulations are discussed.
Konstanze Haubner, Jason E. Box, Nicole J. Schlegel, Eric Y. Larour, Mathieu Morlighem, Anne M. Solgaard, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Signe H. Larsen, Eric Rignot, Todd K. Dupont, and Kurt H. Kjær
The Cryosphere, 12, 1511–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1511-2018, 2018
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We investigate the effect of neglecting calving on Upernavik Isstrøm, West Greenland, between 1849 and 2012.
Our simulation is forced with observed terminus positions in discrete time steps and is responsive to the prescribed ice front changes.
Simulated frontal retreat is needed to obtain a realistic ice surface elevation and velocity evolution of Upernavik.
Using the prescribed terminus position change we gain insight to mass loss partitioning during different time periods.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Hafeez Jeofry, Neil Ross, Hugh F. J. Corr, Jilu Li, Mathieu Morlighem, Prasad Gogineni, and Martin J. Siegert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 711–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-711-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-711-2018, 2018
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Accurately characterizing the complexities of the ice-sheet dynamic specifically close to the grounding line across the Weddell Sea (WS) sector in the ice-sheet models provides challenges to the scientific community. Our main objective is to comprehend these complexities, adding accuracy to the projection of future ice-sheet dynamics. Therefore, we have developed a new bed elevation digital elevation model across the WS sector, which will be of value to ice-sheet modelling experiments.
Felicity S. Graham, Mathieu Morlighem, Roland C. Warner, and Adam Treverrow
The Cryosphere, 12, 1047–1067, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1047-2018, 2018
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Ice sheet flow is anisotropic, depending on the nature of the stress applied. However, most large-scale ice sheet models rely on the Glen flow relation, which ignores anisotropic effects. We implement a flow relation (ESTAR) for anisotropic ice in a large-scale ice sheet model. In ice shelf simulations, the Glen flow relation overestimates velocities by up to 17 % compared with ESTAR. Our results have implications for ice sheet model simulations of paleo-ice extent and sea level rise prediction.
Matthias Rabatel, Pierre Rampal, Alberto Carrassi, Laurent Bertino, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 12, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018, 2018
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Large deviations still exist between sea ice forecasts and observations because of both missing physics in models and uncertainties on model inputs. We investigate how the new sea ice model neXtSIM is sensitive to uncertainties in the winds. We highlight and quantify the role of the internal forces in the ice on this sensitivity and show that neXtSIM is better at predicting sea ice drift than a free-drift (without internal forces) ice model and is a skilful tool for search and rescue operations.
Eric Larour, Daniel Cheng, Gilberto Perez, Justin Quinn, Mathieu Morlighem, Bao Duong, Lan Nguyen, Kit Petrie, Silva Harounian, Daria Halkides, and Wayne Hayes
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4393–4403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4393-2017, 2017
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This work presents a new way of carrying out simulations using the C++ based Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) within a web page. This allows for a new generation of websites that can rely on the entire code of a climate model, without compromising or simplifying the physics implemented in such a model. We believe this approach will enable better education/outreach websites as well as improve access to complex climate models without compromising their integrity.
Timothy D. Williams, Pierre Rampal, and Sylvain Bouillon
The Cryosphere, 11, 2117–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2117-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2117-2017, 2017
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As the Arctic sea ice extent drops, more ship traffic seeks to take advantage of this, and a need for better wave and sea ice forecasts arises. One aspect of this is the location of the sea ice edge. The waves here can be quite large, but they die away as they travel into the ice. This causes momentum to be transferred from the waves to the ice, causing ice drift. However, our study found that the effect of the wind drag had more impact on the ice edge position than the waves.
Hongju Yu, Eric Rignot, Mathieu Morlighem, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 11, 1283–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1283-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1283-2017, 2017
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We combine 2-D ice flow model with linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) to model the calving behavior of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. We find the combination of full-Stokes (FS) model and LEFM produces crevasses that are consistent with observations. We also find that calving is enhanced with pre-existing surface crevasses, shorter ice shelves or undercut at the ice shelf front. We conclude that the FS/LEFM combination is capable of constraining crevasse formation and iceberg calving.
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
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ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
Henning Åkesson, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Rianne H. Giesen, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 11, 281–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-281-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-281-2017, 2017
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We present simulations of the history of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway using a dynamical ice sheet model. From mid-Holocene ice-free conditions 4000 years ago, Hardangerjøkulen grows nonlinearly in response to a linear climate forcing, reaching maximum extent during the Little Ice Age (~ 1750 AD). The ice cap exhibits spatially asymmetric growth and retreat and is highly sensitive to climate change. Our results call for reassessment of glacier reconstructions from proxy records.
Feras Habbal, Eric Larour, Mathieu Morlighem, Helene Seroussi, Christopher P. Borstad, and Eric Rignot
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 155–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-155-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-155-2017, 2017
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This work presents the results from testing a suite of numerical solvers on a standard ice sheet benchmark test. We note the relevance of this test to practical simulations and identify the fastest solvers for the transient simulation. The highlighted solvers show significant speed-ups in relation to the default solver (~1.5–100 times faster) and enable a new capability for solving massive, high-resolution models that are critical for improving projections of ice sheets and sea-level change.
Eric Larour, Jean Utke, Anton Bovin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gilberto Perez
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3907–3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3907-2016, 2016
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We present an approach to derive the adjoint state of the C++ coded Ice Sheet System Model. The approach enables data assimilation of observations to improve projections of polar ice sheet mass balance and contribution to sea-level rise. It is applicable to other Earth science frameworks relying on C++ and parallel computing, is non-intrusive, and enables computation of transient adjoints for any type of physics, hence providing insights into the sensitivities of any model to its inputs.
Janin Schaffer, Ralph Timmermann, Jan Erik Arndt, Steen Savstrup Kristensen, Christoph Mayer, Mathieu Morlighem, and Daniel Steinhage
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 543–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-543-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-543-2016, 2016
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The RTopo-2 data set provides consistent maps of global ocean bathymetry and ice surface topographies for Greenland and Antarctica at 30 arcsec grid spacing. We corrected data from earlier products in the areas of Petermann, Hagen Bræ, and Helheim glaciers, incorporated original data for the floating ice tongue of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier, and applied corrections for the geometry of Getz, Abbot, and Fimbul ice shelf cavities. The data set is available from the PANGAEA database.
Kirill Khvorostovsky and Pierre Rampal
The Cryosphere, 10, 2329–2346, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2329-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2329-2016, 2016
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We analyse two methods of freeboard retrieval from ICESat satellite data that were used to derive the two widely used Arctic sea ice thickness products. We show that although different factors result in significant local differences between freeboards, they roughly compensate each other with respect to overall freeboard estimation. Thus the difference found between the sea ice thickness datasets should be attributed to different parameters used in the freeboard-to-thickness conversion.
Pierre Rampal, Sylvain Bouillon, Jon Bergh, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 10, 1513–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1513-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1513-2016, 2016
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Due to the increasing activity in Arctic, sea-ice–ocean models are now frequently used to produce operational forecasts, for oil spill trajectory modelling and to assist in offshore operations planning. In this study we evaluate the performance of two models with respect to their capability to reproduce observed sea ice diffusion properties by using metrics based on Lagrangian statistics. This paper presents a new and useful evaluation metric for current coupled sea ice–ocean models.
Hongju Yu, Eric Rignot, Mathieu Morlighem, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-101, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We performed a 2D Full-Stokes (FS) modeling study of grounding line dynamics and calving of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. We compare FS with simplified models on grounding line migration and we combine FS with Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics to simulate crevasse propagation. We find that only FS is able to provide reliable grounding line migration and to explain observed crevasse. We conclude that it may be essential to employ FS in the grounding line region for 2D simulations.
Natalia Ivanova, Pierre Rampal, and Sylvain Bouillon
The Cryosphere, 10, 585–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-585-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-585-2016, 2016
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Accurate observations of lead fraction are of high importance for model evaluation and/or assimilation into models. In this work, consistent quantitative error estimation of an existing lead fraction data set obtained from passive microwave observations is completed using Synthetic Aperture Radar data. A significant bias in the data set is found, and possible improvement in the methodology is suggested, so that the pixel-wise error is reduced by a factor of 2 on average.
Johannes H. Bondzio, Hélène Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Eric Y. Larour
The Cryosphere, 10, 497–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-497-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-497-2016, 2016
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We implemented a level-set method in the ice sheet system model. This method allows us to dynamically evolve a calving front subject to user-defined calving rates. We apply the method to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, and study its response to calving rate perturbations. We find its behaviour strongly dependent on the calving rate, which was to be expected. Both reduced basal drag and rheological shear margin weakening sustain the acceleration of this dynamic outlet glacier.
Laura A. Stevens, Fiamma Straneo, Sarah B. Das, Albert J. Plueddemann, Amy L. Kukulya, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 10, 417–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-417-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-417-2016, 2016
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Here we pair detailed hydrographic measurements collected with an autonomous underwater vehicle as close as 150 m from the ice–ocean interface of the Saqqarliup sermia–Sarqardleq Fjord system, West Greenland, with modeled and observed subglacial discharge locations and magnitudes. We find evidence of two main types of subsurface glacially modified water localized in space that are consistent with runoff discharged at two locations along the grounding line.
K. Le Morzadec, L. Tarasov, M. Morlighem, and H. Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3199–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, 2015
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A long-term challenge for any model of complex large-scale processes
is accounting for the impact of unresolved sub-grid (SG) processes.
We quantify the impact of SG mass-balance and ice fluxes on glacial
cycle ensemble results for North America. We find no easy solutions to
accurately capture these impacts. We show that SG process
representation and associated parametric uncertainties can have
significant impact on coarse resolution model results for glacial
cycle ice sheet evolution.
S. Bouillon and P. Rampal
The Cryosphere, 9, 663–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-663-2015, 2015
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We present a new method to compute sea ice deformation fields from satellite-derived motion. The method particularly reduces the artificial noise that arises along discontinuities in the sea ice motion field. We estimate that this artificial noise may cause an overestimation of about 60% of sea ice opening and closing. The constant overestimation of the opening and closing could have led in previous studies to a large overestimation of freezing in leads, salt rejection and sea ice ridging.
E. Larour, J. Utke, B. Csatho, A. Schenk, H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, E. Rignot, N. Schlegel, and A. Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 8, 2335–2351, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2335-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2335-2014, 2014
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We present a temporal inversion of surface mass balance and basal friction for the Northeast Greenland Ice Sheet between 2003 and 2009, using the altimetry record from ICESat. The inversion relies on automatic differentiation of ISSM and demonstrates the feasibility of assimilating altimetry records into reconstructions of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The boundary conditions provide a snapshot of the state of the ice for this period and can be used for further process studies.
H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, E. Larour, E. Rignot, and A. Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 8, 2075–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2075-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2075-2014, 2014
J. M. Lea, D. W. F. Mair, F. M. Nick, B. R. Rea, D. van As, M. Morlighem, P. W. Nienow, and A. Weidick
The Cryosphere, 8, 2031–2045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2031-2014, 2014
H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, E. Rignot, J. Mouginot, E. Larour, M. Schodlok, and A. Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 8, 1699–1710, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1699-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1699-2014, 2014
S. Adhikari, E. R. Ivins, E. Larour, H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, and S. Nowicki
Solid Earth, 5, 569–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014, 2014
M. Zygmuntowska, P. Rampal, N. Ivanova, and L. H. Smedsrud
The Cryosphere, 8, 705–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-705-2014, 2014
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Interannual sea ice thickness variability in the Bay of Bothnia
Ellen M. Buckley, Leela Cañuelas, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Monica M. Wilhelmus
The Cryosphere, 18, 5031–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5031-2024, 2024
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Arctic sea ice cover evolves seasonally from large plates separated by long, linear leads in the winter to a mosaic of smaller sea ice floes in the summer. Here, we present a new image segmentation algorithm applied to thousands of images and identify over 9 million individual pieces of ice. We observe the characteristics of the floes and how they evolve throughout the summer as the ice breaks up.
Shan Sun and Amy Solomon
The Cryosphere, 18, 3033–3048, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024, 2024
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The study brings to light the suitability of CICE for seasonal prediction being contingent on several factors, such as initial conditions like sea ice coverage and thickness, as well as atmospheric and oceanic conditions including oceanic currents and sea surface temperature. We show there is potential to improve seasonal forecasting by using a more reliable sea ice thickness initialization. Thus, data assimilation of sea ice thickness is highly relevant for advancing seasonal prediction skills.
Jan Åström, Fredrik Robertsen, Jari Haapala, Arttu Polojärvi, Rivo Uiboupin, and Ilja Maljutenko
The Cryosphere, 18, 2429–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, 2024
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The HiDEM code has been developed for analyzing the fracture and fragmentation of brittle materials and has been extensively applied to glacier calving. Here, we report on the adaptation of the code to sea-ice dynamics and breakup. The code demonstrates the capability to simulate sea-ice dynamics on a 100 km scale with an unprecedented resolution. We argue that codes of this type may become useful for improving forecasts of sea-ice dynamics.
Sergio Testón-Martínez, Laura M. Barge, Jan Eichler, C. Ignacio Sainz-Díaz, and Julyan H. E. Cartwright
The Cryosphere, 18, 2195–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2195-2024, 2024
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Brinicles are tubular ice structures that grow under the sea ice in cold regions. This happens because the salty water going downwards from the sea ice is colder than the seawater. We have successfully recreated an analogue of these structures in our laboratory. Three methods were used, producing different results. In this paper, we explain how to use these methods and study the behaviour of the brinicles created when changing the flow of water and study the importance for natural brinicles.
Jamie L. Ward and Neil F. Tandon
The Cryosphere, 18, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-995-2024, 2024
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Over the long term, the speed at which sea ice in the Arctic moves has been increasing during all seasons. However, nearly all climate models project that sea ice motion will decrease during summer. This study aims to understand the mechanisms responsible for these projected decreases in summertime sea ice motion. We find that models produce changes in winds and ocean surface tilt which cause the sea ice to slow down, and it is realistic to expect such changes to also occur in the real world.
Linghan Li, Forest Cannon, Matthew R. Mazloff, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Anna M. Wilson, and Fred Martin Ralph
The Cryosphere, 18, 121–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-121-2024, 2024
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We investigate how the moisture transport through atmospheric rivers influences Arctic sea ice variations using hourly atmospheric ERA5 for 1981–2020 at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution. We show that individual atmospheric rivers initiate rapid sea ice decrease through surface heat flux and winds. We find that the rate of change in sea ice concentration has significant anticorrelation with moisture, northward wind and turbulent heat flux on weather timescales almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean.
Fanyi Zhang, Ruibo Lei, Mengxi Zhai, Xiaoping Pang, and Na Li
The Cryosphere, 17, 4609–4628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4609-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric circulation anomalies lead to high Arctic sea ice outflow in winter 2020, causing heavy ice conditions in the Barents–Greenland seas, subsequently impeding the sea surface temperature warming. This suggests that the winter–spring Arctic sea ice outflow can be considered a predictor of changes in sea ice and other marine environmental conditions in the Barents–Greenland seas, which could help to improve our understanding of the physical connections between them.
MacKenzie E. Jewell, Jennifer K. Hutchings, and Cathleen A. Geiger
The Cryosphere, 17, 3229–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3229-2023, 2023
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Sea ice repeatedly fractures near a prominent Alaskan headland as winds move ice along the coast, challenging predictions of sea ice drift. We find winds from high-pressure systems drive these fracturing events, and the Alaskan coastal boundary modifies the resultant ice drift. This observational study shows how wind patterns influence sea ice motion near coasts in winter. Identified relations between winds, ice drift, and fracturing provide effective test cases for dynamic sea ice models.
Katarzyna Bradtke and Agnieszka Herman
The Cryosphere, 17, 2073–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2073-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2073-2023, 2023
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The frazil streaks are one of the visible signs of complex interactions between the mixed-layer dynamics and the forming sea ice. Using high-resolution visible satellite imagery we characterize their spatial properties, relationship with the meteorological forcing, and role in modifying wind-wave growth in the Terra Nova Bay Polynya. We provide a simple statistical tool for estimating the extent and ice coverage of the region of high ice production under given wind speed and air temperature.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
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Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Randall K. Scharien, Jennifer K. Hutchings, and Jennifer V. Lukovich
The Cryosphere, 17, 1545–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, 2023
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Coherent flow patterns in sea ice have a significant influence on sea ice fracture and refreezing. We can better understand the state of sea ice, and its influence on the atmosphere and ocean, if we understand these structures. By adapting recent developments in chaotic dynamical systems, we are able to approximate ice stretching surrounding individual ice buoys. This illuminates the state of sea ice at much higher resolution and allows us to see previously invisible ice deformation patterns.
Robert Ricker, Steven Fons, Arttu Jutila, Nils Hutter, Kyle Duncan, Sinead L. Farrell, Nathan T. Kurtz, and Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen
The Cryosphere, 17, 1411–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1411-2023, 2023
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Information on sea ice surface topography is important for studies of sea ice as well as for ship navigation through ice. The ICESat-2 satellite senses the sea ice surface with six laser beams. To examine the accuracy of these measurements, we carried out a temporally coincident helicopter flight along the same ground track as the satellite and measured the sea ice surface topography with a laser scanner. This showed that ICESat-2 can see even bumps of only few meters in the sea ice cover.
Ludovic Moreau, Léonard Seydoux, Jérôme Weiss, and Michel Campillo
The Cryosphere, 17, 1327–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1327-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1327-2023, 2023
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In the perspective of an upcoming seasonally ice-free Arctic, understanding the dynamics of sea ice in the changing climate is a major challenge in oceanography and climatology. It is therefore essential to monitor sea ice properties with fine temporal and spatial resolution. In this paper, we show that icequakes recorded on sea ice can be processed with artificial intelligence to produce accurate maps of sea ice thickness with high temporal and spatial resolutions.
Sasan Tavakoli and Alexander V. Babanin
The Cryosphere, 17, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-939-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-939-2023, 2023
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We have tried to develop some new wave–ice interaction models by considering two different types of forces, one of which emerges in the ice and the other of which emerges in the water. We have checked the ability of the models in the reconstruction of wave–ice interaction in a step-wise manner. The accuracy level of the models is acceptable, and it will be interesting to check whether they can be used in wave climate models or not.
Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, Yufang Ye, and Mohammed Shokr
The Cryosphere, 17, 105–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-105-2023, 2023
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It is necessary to know the type of Antarctic sea ice present – first-year ice (grown in one season) or multiyear ice (survived one summer melt) – to understand and model its evolution, as the ice types behave and react differently. We have adapted and extended an existing method (originally for the Arctic), and now, for the first time, daily maps of Antarctic sea ice types can be derived from microwave satellite data. This will allow a new data set from 2002 well into the future to be built.
Nazanin Asadi, Philippe Lamontagne, Matthew King, Martin Richard, and K. Andrea Scott
The Cryosphere, 16, 3753–3773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3753-2022, 2022
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Machine learning approaches are deployed to provide accurate daily spatial maps of sea ice presence probability based on ERA5 data as input. Predictions are capable of predicting freeze-up/breakup dates within a 7 d period at specific locations of interest to shipping operators and communities. Forecasts of the proposed method during the breakup season have skills comparing to Climate Normal and sea ice concentration forecasts from a leading subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting system.
Simon Felix Reifenberg and Helge Friedrich Goessling
The Cryosphere, 16, 2927–2946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022, 2022
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Using model simulations, we analyze the impact of chaotic error growth on Arctic sea ice drift predictions. Regarding forecast uncertainty, our results suggest that it matters in which season and where ice drift forecasts are initialized and that both factors vary with the model in use. We find ice velocities to be slightly more predictable than near-surface wind, a main driver of ice drift. This is relevant for future developments of ice drift forecasting systems.
Agathe Serripierri, Ludovic Moreau, Pierre Boue, Jérôme Weiss, and Philippe Roux
The Cryosphere, 16, 2527–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2527-2022, 2022
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As a result of global warming, the sea ice is disappearing at a much faster rate than predicted by climate models. To better understand and predict its ongoing decline, we deployed 247 geophones on the fast ice in Van Mijen Fjord in Svalbard, Norway, in March 2019. The analysis of these data provided a precise daily evolution of the sea-ice parameters at this location with high spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy. The results obtained are consistent with the observations made in situ.
Laura L. Landrum and Marika M. Holland
The Cryosphere, 16, 1483–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1483-2022, 2022
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High-latitude Arctic wintertime sea ice and snow insulate the relatively warmer ocean from the colder atmosphere. As the climate warms, wintertime Arctic conductive heat fluxes increase even when the sea ice concentrations remain high. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE) show how sea ice and snow thicknesses, as well as the distribution of these thicknesses, significantly impact large-scale calculations of wintertime surface heat budgets in the Arctic.
Yunhe Wang, Xiaojun Yuan, Haibo Bi, Mitchell Bushuk, Yu Liang, Cuihua Li, and Haijun Huang
The Cryosphere, 16, 1141–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022, 2022
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We develop a regional linear Markov model consisting of four modules with seasonally dependent variables in the Pacific sector. The model retains skill for detrended sea ice extent predictions for up to 7-month lead times in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. The prediction skill, as measured by the percentage of grid points with significant correlations (PGS), increased by 75 % in the Bering Sea and 16 % in the Sea of Okhotsk relative to the earlier pan-Arctic model.
Charles Brunette, L. Bruno Tremblay, and Robert Newton
The Cryosphere, 16, 533–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-533-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-533-2022, 2022
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Sea ice motion is a versatile parameter for monitoring the Arctic climate system. In this contribution, we use data from drifting buoys, winds, and ice thickness to parameterize the motion of sea ice in a free drift regime – i.e., flowing freely in response to the forcing from the winds and ocean currents. We show that including a dependence on sea ice thickness and taking into account a climatology of the surface ocean circulation significantly improves the accuracy of sea ice motion estimates.
Madison M. Smith, Marika Holland, and Bonnie Light
The Cryosphere, 16, 419–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-419-2022, 2022
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Climate models represent the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land with equations of varying complexity and are important tools for understanding changes in global climate. Here, we explore how realistic variations in the equations describing how sea ice melt occurs at the edges (called lateral melting) impact ice and climate. We find that these changes impact the progression of the sea-ice–albedo feedback in the Arctic and so make significant changes to the predicted Arctic sea ice.
Arttu Jutila, Stefan Hendricks, Robert Ricker, Luisa von Albedyll, Thomas Krumpen, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 16, 259–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-259-2022, 2022
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Sea-ice thickness retrieval from satellite altimeters relies on assumed sea-ice density values because density cannot be measured from space. We derived bulk densities for different ice types using airborne laser, radar, and electromagnetic induction sounding measurements. Compared to previous studies, we found high bulk density values due to ice deformation and younger ice cover. Using sea-ice freeboard, we derived a sea-ice bulk density parameterisation that can be applied to satellite data.
Mathieu Plante and L. Bruno Tremblay
The Cryosphere, 15, 5623–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5623-2021, 2021
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We propose a generalized form for the damage parameterization such that super-critical stresses can return to the yield with different final sub-critical stress states. In uniaxial compression simulations, the generalization improves the orientation of sea ice fractures and reduces the growth of numerical errors. Shear and convergence deformations however remain predominant along the fractures, contrary to observations, and this calls for modification of the post-fracture viscosity formulation.
Joey J. Voermans, Qingxiang Liu, Aleksey Marchenko, Jean Rabault, Kirill Filchuk, Ivan Ryzhov, Petra Heil, Takuji Waseda, Takehiko Nose, Tsubasa Kodaira, Jingkai Li, and Alexander V. Babanin
The Cryosphere, 15, 5557–5575, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5557-2021, 2021
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We have shown through field experiments that the amount of wave energy dissipated in landfast ice, sea ice attached to land, is much larger than in broken ice. By comparing our measurements against predictions of contemporary wave–ice interaction models, we determined which models can explain our observations and which cannot. Our results will improve our understanding of how waves and ice interact and how we can model such interactions to better forecast waves and ice in the polar regions.
Marika M. Holland, David Clemens-Sewall, Laura Landrum, Bonnie Light, Donald Perovich, Chris Polashenski, Madison Smith, and Melinda Webster
The Cryosphere, 15, 4981–4998, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, 2021
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As the most reflective and most insulative natural material, snow has important climate effects. For snow on sea ice, its high reflectivity reduces ice melt. However, its high insulating capacity limits ice growth. These counteracting effects make its net influence on sea ice uncertain. We find that with increasing snow, sea ice in both hemispheres is thicker and more extensive. However, the drivers of this response are different in the two hemispheres due to different climate conditions.
Don Perovich, Madison Smith, Bonnie Light, and Melinda Webster
The Cryosphere, 15, 4517–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4517-2021, 2021
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During summer, Arctic sea ice melts on its surface and bottom and lateral edges. Some of this fresh meltwater is stored on the ice surface in features called melt ponds. The rest flows into the ocean. The meltwater flowing into the upper ocean affects ice growth and melt, upper ocean properties, and ocean ecosystems. Using field measurements, we found that the summer meltwater was equal to an 80 cm thick layer; 85 % of this meltwater flowed into the ocean and 15 % was stored in melt ponds.
Sönke Maus, Martin Schneebeli, and Andreas Wiegmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 4047–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4047-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4047-2021, 2021
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As the hydraulic permeability of sea ice is difficult to measure, observations are sparse. The present work presents numerical simulations of the permeability of young sea ice based on a large set of 3D X-ray tomographic images. It extends the relationship between permeability and porosity available so far down to brine porosities near the percolation threshold of a few per cent. Evaluation of pore scales and 3D connectivity provides novel insight into the percolation behaviour of sea ice.
Cyril Palerme and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 15, 3989–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021, 2021
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Methods have been developed for calibrating sea ice drift forecasts from an operational prediction system using machine learning algorithms. These algorithms use predictors from sea ice concentration observations during the initialization of the forecasts, sea ice and wind forecasts, and some geographical information. Depending on the calibration method, the mean absolute error is reduced between 3.3 % and 8.0 % for the direction and between 2.5 % and 7.1 % for the speed of sea ice drift.
Dongyang Fu, Bei Liu, Yali Qi, Guo Yu, Haoen Huang, and Lilian Qu
The Cryosphere, 15, 3797–3811, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3797-2021, 2021
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Our results show three main sea ice drift patterns have different multiscale variation characteristics. The oscillation period of the third sea ice transport pattern is longer than the other two, and the ocean environment has a more significant influence on it due to the different regulatory effects of the atmosphere and ocean environment on sea ice drift patterns on various scales. Our research can provide a basis for the study of Arctic sea ice dynamics parameterization in numerical models.
Andrii Murdza, Arttu Polojärvi, Erland M. Schulson, and Carl E. Renshaw
The Cryosphere, 15, 2957–2967, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2957-2021, 2021
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The strength of refrozen floes or piles of ice rubble is an important factor in assessing ice-structure interactions, as well as the integrity of an ice cover itself. The results of this paper provide unique data on the tensile strength of freeze bonds and are the first measurements to be reported. The provided information can lead to a better understanding of the behavior of refrozen ice floes and better estimates of the strength of an ice rubble pile.
H. Jakob Belter, Thomas Krumpen, Luisa von Albedyll, Tatiana A. Alekseeva, Gerit Birnbaum, Sergei V. Frolov, Stefan Hendricks, Andreas Herber, Igor Polyakov, Ian Raphael, Robert Ricker, Sergei S. Serovetnikov, Melinda Webster, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 15, 2575–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2575-2021, 2021
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Summer sea ice thickness observations based on electromagnetic induction measurements north of Fram Strait show a 20 % reduction in mean and modal ice thickness from 2001–2020. The observed variability is caused by changes in drift speeds and consequential variations in sea ice age and number of freezing-degree days. Increased ocean heat fluxes measured upstream in the source regions of Arctic ice seem to precondition ice thickness, which is potentially still measurable more than a year later.
Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Klaus Wyser
The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021
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We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
Ron Kwok, Alek A. Petty, Marco Bagnardi, Nathan T. Kurtz, Glenn F. Cunningham, Alvaro Ivanoff, and Sahra Kacimi
The Cryosphere, 15, 821–833, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-821-2021, 2021
Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Rasmus Tonboe, Stefan Hendricks, Robert Ricker, James Mead, Robbie Mallett, Marcus Huntemann, Polona Itkin, Martin Schneebeli, Daniela Krampe, Gunnar Spreen, Jeremy Wilkinson, Ilkka Matero, Mario Hoppmann, and Michel Tsamados
The Cryosphere, 14, 4405–4426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4405-2020, 2020
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This study provides a first look at the data collected by a new dual-frequency Ka- and Ku-band in situ radar over winter sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The instrument shows potential for using both bands to retrieve snow depth over sea ice, as well as sensitivity of the measurements to changing snow and atmospheric conditions.
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Guillian Van Achter, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 14, 2409–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, 2020
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The continuous melting of the Arctic sea ice observed in the last decades has a significant impact at global and regional scales. To understand the amplitude and consequences of this impact, the monitoring of the total sea ice volume is crucial. However, in situ monitoring in such a harsh environment is hard to perform and far too expensive. This study shows that four well-placed sampling locations are sufficient to explain about 70 % of the inter-annual changes in the pan-Arctic sea ice volume.
H. Jakob Belter, Thomas Krumpen, Stefan Hendricks, Jens Hoelemann, Markus A. Janout, Robert Ricker, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 14, 2189–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2189-2020, 2020
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The validation of satellite sea ice thickness (SIT) climate data records with newly acquired moored sonar SIT data shows that satellite products provide modal rather than mean SIT in the Laptev Sea region. This tendency of satellite-based SIT products to underestimate mean SIT needs to be considered for investigations of sea ice volume transports. Validation of satellite SIT in the first-year-ice-dominated Laptev Sea will support algorithm development for more reliable SIT records in the Arctic.
Mark S. Handcock and Marilyn N. Raphael
The Cryosphere, 14, 2159–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020, 2020
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Traditional methods of calculating the annual cycle of sea ice extent disguise the variation of amplitude and timing (phase) of the advance and retreat of the ice. We present a multiscale model that explicitly allows them to vary, resulting in a much improved representation of the cycle. We show that phase is the dominant contributor to the variability in the cycle and that the anomalous decay of Antarctic sea ice in 2016 was due largely to a change of phase.
Rebecca J. Rolph, Daniel L. Feltham, and David Schröder
The Cryosphere, 14, 1971–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1971-2020, 2020
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It is well known that the Arctic sea ice extent is declining, and it is often assumed that the marginal ice zone (MIZ), the area of partial sea ice cover, is consequently increasing. However, we find no trend in the MIZ extent during the last 40 years from observations that is consistent with a widening of the MIZ as it moves northward. Differences of MIZ extent between different satellite retrievals are too large to provide a robust basis to verify model simulations of MIZ extent.
Mark A. Tschudi, Walter N. Meier, and J. Scott Stewart
The Cryosphere, 14, 1519–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1519-2020, 2020
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A new version of a set of data products that contain the velocity of sea ice and the age of this ice has been developed. We provide a history of the product development and discuss the improvements to the algorithms that create these products. We find that changes in sea ice motion and age show a significant shift in the Arctic ice cover, from a pack with a high concentration of older ice to a sea ice cover dominated by younger ice, which is more susceptible to summer melt.
Angela Cheng, Barbara Casati, Adrienne Tivy, Tom Zagon, Jean-François Lemieux, and L. Bruno Tremblay
The Cryosphere, 14, 1289–1310, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1289-2020, 2020
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Sea ice charts by the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contain visually estimated ice concentration produced by analysts. The accuracy of manually derived ice concentrations is not well understood. The subsequent uncertainty of ice charts results in downstream uncertainties for ice charts users, such as models and climatology studies, and when used as a verification source for automated sea ice classifiers. This study quantifies the level of accuracy and inter-analyst agreement for ice charts by CIS.
Young Jun Kim, Hyun-Cheol Kim, Daehyeon Han, Sanggyun Lee, and Jungho Im
The Cryosphere, 14, 1083–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1083-2020, 2020
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In this study, we proposed a novel 1-month sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction model with eight predictors using a deep-learning approach, convolutional neural networks (CNNs). The proposed CNN model was evaluated and compared with the two baseline approaches, random-forest and simple-regression models, resulting in better performance. This study also examined SIC predictions for two extreme cases in 2007 and 2012 in detail and the influencing factors through a sensitivity analysis.
Shiming Xu, Lu Zhou, and Bin Wang
The Cryosphere, 14, 751–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-751-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-751-2020, 2020
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Sea ice thickness parameters are key to polar climate change studies and forecasts. Airborne and satellite measurements provide complementary observational capabilities. The study analyzes the variability in freeboard and snow depth measurements and its changes with scale in Operation IceBridge, CryoVEx, CryoSat-2 and ICESat. Consistency between airborne and satellite data is checked. Analysis calls for process-oriented attribution of variability and covariability features of these parameters.
Valeria Selyuzhenok, Igor Bashmachnikov, Robert Ricker, Anna Vesman, and Leonid Bobylev
The Cryosphere, 14, 477–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-477-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-477-2020, 2020
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This study explores a link between the long-term variations in the integral sea ice volume in the Greenland Sea and oceanic processes. We link the changes in the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) regional sea ice volume with the mixed layer, depth and upper-ocean heat content derived using the ARMOR dataset.
Chao Min, Longjiang Mu, Qinghua Yang, Robert Ricker, Qian Shi, Bo Han, Renhao Wu, and Jiping Liu
The Cryosphere, 13, 3209–3224, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3209-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3209-2019, 2019
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Sea ice volume export through the Fram Strait has been studied using varied methods, however, mostly in winter months. Here we report sea ice volume estimates that extend over summer seasons. A recent developed sea ice thickness dataset, in which CryoSat-2 and SMOS sea ice thickness together with SSMI/SSMIS sea ice concentration are assimilated, is used and evaluated in the paper. Results show our estimate is more reasonable than that calculated by satellite data only.
M. Jeffrey Mei, Ted Maksym, Blake Weissling, and Hanumant Singh
The Cryosphere, 13, 2915–2934, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2915-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2915-2019, 2019
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Sea ice thickness is hard to measure directly, and current datasets are very limited to sporadically conducted drill lines. However, surface elevation is much easier to measure. Converting surface elevation to ice thickness requires making assumptions about snow depth and density, which leads to large errors (and may not generalize to new datasets). A deep learning method is presented that uses the surface morphology as a direct predictor of sea ice thickness, with testing errors of < 20 %.
Pierre Rampal, Véronique Dansereau, Einar Olason, Sylvain Bouillon, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, and Abdoulaye Samaké
The Cryosphere, 13, 2457–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, 2019
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In this article, we look at how the Arctic sea ice cover, as a solid body, behaves on different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the numerical model neXtSIM uses a new approach to simulate the mechanics of sea ice and reproduce the characteristics of how sea ice deforms, as observed by satellite. We discuss the importance of this model performance in the context of simulating climate processes taking place in polar regions, like the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere.
Alberto Alberello, Miguel Onorato, Luke Bennetts, Marcello Vichi, Clare Eayrs, Keith MacHutchon, and Alessandro Toffoli
The Cryosphere, 13, 41–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-41-2019, 2019
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Existing observations do not provide quantitative descriptions of the floe size distribution for pancake ice floes. This is important during the Antarctic winter sea ice expansion, when hundreds of kilometres of ice cover around the Antarctic continent are composed of pancake floes (D = 0.3–3 m). Here, a new set of images from the Antarctic marginal ice zone is used to measure the shape of individual pancakes for the first time and to infer their size distribution.
Frédéric Laliberté, Stephen E. L. Howell, Jean-François Lemieux, Frédéric Dupont, and Ji Lei
The Cryosphere, 12, 3577–3588, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018, 2018
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Ice that forms over marginal seas often gets anchored and becomes landfast. Landfast ice is fundamental to the local ecosystems, is of economic importance as it leads to hazardous seafaring conditions and is also a choice hunting ground for both the local population and large predators. Using observations and climate simulations, this study shows that, especially in the Canadian Arctic, landfast ice might be more resilient to climate change than is generally thought.
Iina Ronkainen, Jonni Lehtiranta, Mikko Lensu, Eero Rinne, Jari Haapala, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 12, 3459–3476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3459-2018, 2018
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We quantify the sea ice thickness variability in the Bay of Bothnia using various observational data sets. For the first time we use helicopter and shipborne electromagnetic soundings to study changes in drift ice of the Bay of Bothnia. Our results show that the interannual variability of ice thickness is larger in the drift ice zone than in the fast ice zone. Furthermore, the mean thickness of heavily ridged ice near the coast can be several times larger than that of fast ice.
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Short summary
The Arctic sea ice cover has changed drastically over the last decades and undergone a shift in its dynamical regime, as seen by the increase of extreme fracturing events and the acceleration of sea ice drift. In this paper we present a new sea ice model, neXtSIM, that is capable of simulating both sea ice drift and deformation as observed from satellites, with similar spatial and temporal scaling properties. At the same time, the model reproduces sea ice area, extent, and volume correctly.
The Arctic sea ice cover has changed drastically over the last decades and undergone a shift in...
