Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-701-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-701-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 13 Feb 2023
| 13 Feb 2023
Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode
Serena Schroeter
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth Systems, CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Terence J. O'Kane
Earth Systems, CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Hobart,
Tasmania, Australia
Paul A. Sandery
Earth Systems, CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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Mark Collier, Dylan Harries, and Terence O'Kane
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3948, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
Short summary
Short summary
Here we apply Bayesian methods to reconstructed and simulated climate model data over past decades to determine the role of long timescale phase dependencies, and extratropical teleconnections, on the major drivers of tropical climate variability.
Dylan Harries and Terence J. O'Kane
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 453–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-453-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Different dimension reduction methods may produce profoundly different low-dimensional representations of multiscale systems. We perform a set of case studies to investigate these differences. When a clear scale separation is present, similar bases are obtained using all methods, but when this is not the case some methods may produce representations that are poorly suited for describing features of interest, highlighting the importance of a careful choice of method when designing analyses.
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Short summary
Antarctic sea ice has increased over much of the satellite record, but we show that the early, strongly opposing regional trends diminish and reverse over time, leading to overall negative trends in recent decades. The dominant pattern of atmospheric flow has changed from strongly east–west to more wave-like with enhanced north–south winds. Sea surface temperatures have also changed from circumpolar cooling to regional warming, suggesting recent record low sea ice will not rapidly recover.
Antarctic sea ice has increased over much of the satellite record, but we show that the early,...
