Articles | Volume 15, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3401-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3401-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Spaceborne infrared imagery for early detection of Weddell Polynya opening
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Martin Mohrmann
Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Adriano Lemos
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
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Céline Heuzé, Linn Carlstedt, Lea Poropat, and Heather Reese
Ocean Sci., 21, 1813–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1813-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1813-2025, 2025
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Extreme sea levels will worsen under climate change. In northern Europe, what drives these extreme events will not change, so determining these drivers is of use for planning coastal defences. Here, using two machine learning methods on hourly tide gauge and weather data at nine locations around the North and Baltic seas, we determine that the drivers of prolonged periods of high sea level are westerly winds, whereas the drivers of the most extreme peaks depend on the coastline geometry.
Baylor Fox-Kemper, Patricia DeRepentigny, Anne Marie Treguier, Christian Stepanek, Eleanor O’Rourke, Chloe Mackallah, Alberto Meucci, Yevgeny Aksenov, Paul J. Durack, Nicole Feldl, Vanessa Hernaman, Céline Heuzé, Doroteaciro Iovino, Gaurav Madan, André L. Marquez, François Massonnet, Jenny Mecking, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Patrick C. Taylor, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Martin Vancoppenolle
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Polynyas are areas with no- or thin-ice within the ice pack. They play a crucial role for the Earth system, yet their monitoring in the Arctic is challenging because polynya detection is non-trivial. We here demonstrate that polynyas can successfully be detected with a novel, machine-learning based method. In fact, we argue that they are better detected than with traditional methods, which seem to fail as sea ice decreases because of climate change.
Flor Vermassen, Clare Bird, Tirza M. Weitkamp, Kate F. Darling, Hanna Farnelid, Céline Heuzé, Allison Y. Hsiang, Salar Karam, Christian Stranne, Marcus Sundbom, and Helen K. Coxall
Biogeosciences, 22, 2261–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2261-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2261-2025, 2025
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We provide the first systematic survey of planktonic foraminifera in the high Arctic Ocean. Our results describe the abundance and species composition under summer sea ice. They indicate that the polar specialist N. pachyderma is the only species present, with subpolar species absent. The data set will be a valuable reference for continued monitoring of the state of planktonic foraminifera communities as they respond to the ongoing sea-ice decline and the “Atlantification” of the Arctic Ocean.
Salar Karam, Céline Heuzé, Mario Hoppmann, and Laura de Steur
Ocean Sci., 20, 917–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-917-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-917-2024, 2024
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A long-term mooring array in the Fram Strait allows for an evaluation of decadal trends in temperature in this major oceanic gateway into the Arctic. Since the 1980s, the deep waters of the Greenland Sea and the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic have warmed rapidly at a rate of 0.11°C and 0.05°C per decade, respectively, at a depth of 2500 m. We show that the temperatures of the two basins converged around 2017 and that the deep waters of the Greenland Sea are now a heat source for the Arctic Ocean.
Lea Poropat, Dani Jones, Simon D. A. Thomas, and Céline Heuzé
Ocean Sci., 20, 201–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-201-2024, 2024
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In this study we use a machine learning method called a Gaussian mixture model to divide part of the ocean (northwestern European seas and part of the Atlantic Ocean) into regions based on satellite observations of sea level. This helps us study each of these regions separately and learn more about what causes sea level changes there. We find that the ocean is first divided based on bathymetry and then based on other features such as water masses and typical atmospheric conditions.
Céline Heuzé, Oliver Huhn, Maren Walter, Natalia Sukhikh, Salar Karam, Wiebke Körtke, Myriel Vredenborg, Klaus Bulsiewicz, Jürgen Sültenfuß, Ying-Chih Fang, Christian Mertens, Benjamin Rabe, Sandra Tippenhauer, Jacob Allerholt, Hailun He, David Kuhlmey, Ivan Kuznetsov, and Maria Mallet
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5517-2023, 2023
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Gases dissolved in the ocean water not used by the ecosystem (or "passive tracers") are invaluable to track water over long distances and investigate the processes that modify its properties. Unfortunately, especially so in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, such gas measurements are sparse. We here present a data set of several passive tracers (anthropogenic gases, noble gases and their isotopes) collected over the full ocean depth, weekly, during the 1-year drift in the Arctic during MOSAiC.
Martin Mohrmann, Céline Heuzé, and Sebastiaan Swart
The Cryosphere, 15, 4281–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are large open-water areas within the sea ice. We developed a method to estimate their area, distribution and frequency for the Southern Ocean in climate models and observations. All models have polynyas along the coast but few do so in the open ocean, in contrast to observations. We examine potential atmospheric and oceanic drivers of open-water polynyas and discuss recently implemented schemes that may have improved some models' polynya representation.
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
Céline Heuzé
Ocean Sci., 17, 59–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-59-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-59-2021, 2021
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Dense waters sinking by Antarctica and in the North Atlantic control global ocean currents and carbon storage. We need to know how these change with climate change, and thus we need accurate climate models. Here we show that dense water sinking in the latest models is better than in the previous ones, but there is still too much water sinking. This impacts how well models represent the deep ocean density and the deep currents globally. We also suggest ways to improve the models.
Céline Heuzé, Linn Carlstedt, Lea Poropat, and Heather Reese
Ocean Sci., 21, 1813–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1813-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1813-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme sea levels will worsen under climate change. In northern Europe, what drives these extreme events will not change, so determining these drivers is of use for planning coastal defences. Here, using two machine learning methods on hourly tide gauge and weather data at nine locations around the North and Baltic seas, we determine that the drivers of prolonged periods of high sea level are westerly winds, whereas the drivers of the most extreme peaks depend on the coastline geometry.
Baylor Fox-Kemper, Patricia DeRepentigny, Anne Marie Treguier, Christian Stepanek, Eleanor O’Rourke, Chloe Mackallah, Alberto Meucci, Yevgeny Aksenov, Paul J. Durack, Nicole Feldl, Vanessa Hernaman, Céline Heuzé, Doroteaciro Iovino, Gaurav Madan, André L. Marquez, François Massonnet, Jenny Mecking, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Patrick C. Taylor, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Martin Vancoppenolle
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The earth system model variables needed for studies of the ocean and sea ice are prioritized and requested.
Céline Heuzé and Carmen Hau Man Wong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2747, 2025
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Short summary
Polynyas are areas with no- or thin-ice within the ice pack. They play a crucial role for the Earth system, yet their monitoring in the Arctic is challenging because polynya detection is non-trivial. We here demonstrate that polynyas can successfully be detected with a novel, machine-learning based method. In fact, we argue that they are better detected than with traditional methods, which seem to fail as sea ice decreases because of climate change.
Flor Vermassen, Clare Bird, Tirza M. Weitkamp, Kate F. Darling, Hanna Farnelid, Céline Heuzé, Allison Y. Hsiang, Salar Karam, Christian Stranne, Marcus Sundbom, and Helen K. Coxall
Biogeosciences, 22, 2261–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2261-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2261-2025, 2025
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Short summary
We provide the first systematic survey of planktonic foraminifera in the high Arctic Ocean. Our results describe the abundance and species composition under summer sea ice. They indicate that the polar specialist N. pachyderma is the only species present, with subpolar species absent. The data set will be a valuable reference for continued monitoring of the state of planktonic foraminifera communities as they respond to the ongoing sea-ice decline and the “Atlantification” of the Arctic Ocean.
Lu Zhou, Holly Ayres, Birte Gülk, Aditya Narayanan, Casimir de Lavergne, Malin Ödalen, Alessandro Silvano, Xingchi Wang, Margaret Lindeman, and Nadine Steiger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-999, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are large openings in polar sea ice that can influence global climate and ocean circulation. After disappearing for 40 years, major polynyas reappeared in the Weddell Sea in 2016 and 2017, sparking new scientific questions. Our review explores how ocean currents, atmospheric conditions, and deep ocean heat drive their formation. These polynyas impact ecosystems, carbon exchange, and deep water formation, but their future remains uncertain, requiring better observations and models.
Siqi Liu, Shiming Xu, Wenkai Guo, Yanfei Fan, Lu Zhou, Jack Landy, Malin Johansson, Weixin Zhu, and Alek Petty
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1069, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we explore the potential of using synthetic aperture radars (SAR) to predict the sea ice height measurements by the airborne campaign of Operation IceBridge. In particular, we predict the meter-scale sea ice height with the statistical relationship between the two, overcoming the resolution limitation of SAR images from Sentinel-1 satellites. The prediction and ice drift correction algorithms can be applied to the extrapolation of ICESat-2 measurements in the Arctic region.
Lu Zhou, Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Shiming Xu, Weixin Zhu, Sahra Kacimi, Stefanie Arndt, and Zifan Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4399–4434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snow over Antarctic sea ice, influenced by highly variable meteorological conditions and heavy snowfall, has a complex stratigraphy and profound impact on the microwave signature. We employ advanced radiation transfer models to analyse the effects of complex snow properties on brightness temperatures over the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Great potential lies in the understanding of snow processes and the application to satellite retrievals.
Salar Karam, Céline Heuzé, Mario Hoppmann, and Laura de Steur
Ocean Sci., 20, 917–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-917-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-917-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A long-term mooring array in the Fram Strait allows for an evaluation of decadal trends in temperature in this major oceanic gateway into the Arctic. Since the 1980s, the deep waters of the Greenland Sea and the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic have warmed rapidly at a rate of 0.11°C and 0.05°C per decade, respectively, at a depth of 2500 m. We show that the temperatures of the two basins converged around 2017 and that the deep waters of the Greenland Sea are now a heat source for the Arctic Ocean.
Weixin Zhu, Siqi Liu, Shiming Xu, and Lu Zhou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2917–2940, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2917-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2917-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the polar ocean, wind waves generate and propagate into the sea ice cover, forming marginal ice zones (MIZs). Using ESA's CryoSat-2, we construct a 12-year dataset of the MIZ in the Atlantic Arctic, a key region for climate change and human activities. The dataset is validated with high-resolution observations by ICESat2 and Sentinel-1. MIZs over 300 km wide are found under storms in the Barents Sea. The new dataset serves as the basis for research areas, including wave–ice interactions.
Adriano Lemos and Aku Riihelä
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-869, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we used satellite imagery to measure snow depth in northern Finland and compared to on-site weather stations from 2019–2022. We correlated snow depths and vegetation coverage, and found thicker snow over non-vegetated areas and frozen water bodies due to the satellite's sensitivity. Our estimates showed underestimated results of snow depth and need further investigation, but they highlight the potential in monitoring seasonal snow changes, particularly where direct measurements are lacking.
Lea Poropat, Dani Jones, Simon D. A. Thomas, and Céline Heuzé
Ocean Sci., 20, 201–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-201-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a machine learning method called a Gaussian mixture model to divide part of the ocean (northwestern European seas and part of the Atlantic Ocean) into regions based on satellite observations of sea level. This helps us study each of these regions separately and learn more about what causes sea level changes there. We find that the ocean is first divided based on bathymetry and then based on other features such as water masses and typical atmospheric conditions.
Céline Heuzé, Oliver Huhn, Maren Walter, Natalia Sukhikh, Salar Karam, Wiebke Körtke, Myriel Vredenborg, Klaus Bulsiewicz, Jürgen Sültenfuß, Ying-Chih Fang, Christian Mertens, Benjamin Rabe, Sandra Tippenhauer, Jacob Allerholt, Hailun He, David Kuhlmey, Ivan Kuznetsov, and Maria Mallet
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gases dissolved in the ocean water not used by the ecosystem (or "passive tracers") are invaluable to track water over long distances and investigate the processes that modify its properties. Unfortunately, especially so in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, such gas measurements are sparse. We here present a data set of several passive tracers (anthropogenic gases, noble gases and their isotopes) collected over the full ocean depth, weekly, during the 1-year drift in the Arctic during MOSAiC.
Martin Mohrmann, Céline Heuzé, and Sebastiaan Swart
The Cryosphere, 15, 4281–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are large open-water areas within the sea ice. We developed a method to estimate their area, distribution and frequency for the Southern Ocean in climate models and observations. All models have polynyas along the coast but few do so in the open ocean, in contrast to observations. We examine potential atmospheric and oceanic drivers of open-water polynyas and discuss recently implemented schemes that may have improved some models' polynya representation.
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
Shiming Xu, Jialiang Ma, Lu Zhou, Yan Zhang, Jiping Liu, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 603–628, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-603-2021, 2021
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A multi-resolution tripolar grid hierarchy is constructed and integrated in CESM (version 1.2.1). The resolution range includes 0.45, 0.15, and 0.05°. Based on atmospherically forced sea ice experiments, the model simulates reasonable sea ice kinematics and scaling properties. Landfast ice thickness can also be systematically shifted due to non-convergent solutions to an
elastic–viscous–plastic (EVP) model. This work is a framework for multi-scale modeling of the ocean and sea ice with CESM.
Lu Zhou, Julienne Stroeve, Shiming Xu, Alek Petty, Rachel Tilling, Mai Winstrup, Philip Rostosky, Isobel R. Lawrence, Glen E. Liston, Andy Ridout, Michel Tsamados, and Vishnu Nandan
The Cryosphere, 15, 345–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-345-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow on sea ice plays an important role in the Arctic climate system. Large spatial and temporal discrepancies among the eight snow depth products are analyzed together with their seasonal variability and long-term trends. These snow products are further compared against various ground-truth observations. More analyses on representation error of sea ice parameters are needed for systematic comparison and fusion of airborne, in situ and remote sensing observations.
Céline Heuzé
Ocean Sci., 17, 59–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-59-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-59-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dense waters sinking by Antarctica and in the North Atlantic control global ocean currents and carbon storage. We need to know how these change with climate change, and thus we need accurate climate models. Here we show that dense water sinking in the latest models is better than in the previous ones, but there is still too much water sinking. This impacts how well models represent the deep ocean density and the deep currents globally. We also suggest ways to improve the models.
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Short summary
For navigation or science planning, knowing when sea ice will open in advance is a prerequisite. Yet, to date, routine spaceborne microwave observations of sea ice are unable to do so. We present the first method based on spaceborne infrared that can forecast an opening several days ahead. We develop it specifically for the Weddell Polynya, a large hole in the Antarctic winter ice cover that unexpectedly re-opened for the first time in 40 years in 2016, and determine why the polynya opened.
For navigation or science planning, knowing when sea ice will open in advance is a prerequisite....