Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
The Cryosphere, 15, 2683–2699, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021
The Cryosphere, 15, 2683–2699, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021

Research article 15 Jun 2021

Research article | 15 Jun 2021

Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Mira Berdahl et al.

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Cited articles

Asay-Davis, X. S., Cornford, S. L., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R. M., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hattermann, T., Holland, D. M., Holland, D., Holland, P. R., Martin, D. F., Mathiot, P., Pattyn, F., and Seroussi, H.: Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016. a
Asay-Davis, X. S., Jourdain, N. C., and Nakayama, Y.: Developments in simulating and parameterizing interactions between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic ice sheet, Current Climate Change Reports, 3, 316–329, 2017. a
Bakker, A. M., Louchard, D., and Keller, K.: Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections, Climatic Change, 140, 339–347, 2017. a
Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W.: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 424–427, 2013. a
Berdahl, M.: mberdahl-uw/TheCryosphere-CISM_emulator: CISM Emulator Code and data (Version 1.0.0), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4902149, 2021. a
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Short summary
Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures and have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in rise amount and timing remain largely unquantified. To facilitate uncertainty quantification, we use a high-resolution ice sheet model to build, test, and validate an ice sheet emulator and generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years in the future.