Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
Research article
 | 
03 Jun 2016
Research article |  | 03 Jun 2016

Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier

Jérome Faillettaz, Martin Funk, and Marco Vagliasindi

Related authors

Resolving the influence of temperature forcing through heat conduction on rock glacier dynamics: a numerical modelling approach
Alessandro Cicoira, Jan Beutel, Jérome Faillettaz, Isabelle Gärtner-Roer, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 13, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-927-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-927-2019, 2019
Short summary
Quantifying irreversible movement in steep, fractured bedrock permafrost on Matterhorn (CH)
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Jérome Faillettaz, Andreas Hasler, Michael Krautblatter, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 11, 567–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Natural Hazards
Interactive snow avalanche segmentation from webcam imagery: results, potential, and limitations
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Theodora Kontogianni, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Lucien Oberson, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
The Cryosphere, 18, 3807–3823, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3807-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Changes in snow avalanche activity in response to climate warming in the Swiss Alps
Stephanie Mayer, Martin Hendrick, Adrien Michel, Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Heini Wernli, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1026,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1026, 2024
Short summary
Frost quakes in wetlands in northern Finland during extreme winter weather conditions and related hazard to urban infrastructure
Nikita Afonin, Elena Kozlovskaya, Kari Moisio, Emma-Riikka Kokko, and Jarkko Okkonen
The Cryosphere, 18, 2223–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2223-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Snow mechanical property variability at the slope scale – implication for snow mechanical modelling
Francis Meloche, Francis Gauthier, and Alexandre Langlois
The Cryosphere, 18, 1359–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1359-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Brief communication: An ice-debris avalanche in the Nupchu Valley, Kanchenjunga Conservation Area, eastern Nepal
Alton C. Byers, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Dan H. Shugar, Daniel McGrath, Mohan B. Chand, and Ram Avtar
The Cryosphere, 18, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Christen, M., Kowalski, J., and Bartelt, P.: RAMMS: Numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 63, 1–14, 2010.
Faillettaz, J., Pralong, A., Funk, M., and Deichmann, N.: Evidence of log-periodic oscillations and increasing icequake activity during the breaking-off of large ice masses, J. Glaciol., 54, 725–737, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308786570845, 2008.
Faillettaz, J., Funk, M., and Sornette, D.: Icequakes coupled with surface displacements for predicting glacier break-off, J. Glaciol., 57, 453–460, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311796905668, 2011a.
Faillettaz, J., Sornette, D., and Funk, M.: Numerical modeling of a gravity-driven instability of a cold hanging glacier: reanalysis of the 1895 break-off of Altelsgletscher, Switzerland, J. Glaciol., 57, 817–831, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311798043852, 2011b.
Faillettaz, J., Funk, M., and Sornette, D.: Instabilities on Alpine temperate glaciers: new insights arising from the numerical modelling of Allalingletscher (Valais, Switzerland), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2977–2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2977-2012, 2012.
Download
Short summary
The break-off of a cold hanging glacier could be successfully predicted 10 days in advance thanks to very accurate surface displacement measurements taken right up to the final event. This break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experience a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time.