Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
Research article
 | 
03 Jun 2016
Research article |  | 03 Jun 2016

Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier

Jérome Faillettaz, Martin Funk, and Marco Vagliasindi

Related authors

Resolving the influence of temperature forcing through heat conduction on rock glacier dynamics: a numerical modelling approach
Alessandro Cicoira, Jan Beutel, Jérome Faillettaz, Isabelle Gärtner-Roer, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 13, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-927-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-927-2019, 2019
Short summary
Quantifying irreversible movement in steep, fractured bedrock permafrost on Matterhorn (CH)
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Jérome Faillettaz, Andreas Hasler, Michael Krautblatter, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 11, 567–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Natural Hazards
Brief communication: An ice-debris avalanche in the Nupchu Valley, Kanchenjunga Conservation Area, eastern Nepal
Alton C. Byers, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Dan H. Shugar, Daniel McGrath, Mohan B. Chand, and Ram Avtar
The Cryosphere, 18, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, 2024
Short summary
Snow mechanical properties variability at the slope scale, implication for snow mechanical modeling
Francis Meloche, Francis Gauthier, and Alexandre Langlois
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1586,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1586, 2023
Short summary
Brief communication: Rapid  ∼  335  ×  106 m3 bed erosion after detachment of the Sedongpu Glacier (Tibet)
Andreas Kääb and Luc Girod
The Cryosphere, 17, 2533–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2533-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2533-2023, 2023
Short summary
Combining modelled snowpack stability with machine learning to predict avalanche activity
Léo Viallon-Galinier, Pascal Hagenmuller, and Nicolas Eckert
The Cryosphere, 17, 2245–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, 2023
Short summary
Can Saharan dust deposition impact snowpack stability in the French Alps?
Oscar Dick, Léo Viallon-Galinier, François Tuzet, Pascal Hagenmuller, Mathieu Fructus, Benjamin Reuter, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 17, 1755–1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Christen, M., Kowalski, J., and Bartelt, P.: RAMMS: Numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 63, 1–14, 2010.
Faillettaz, J., Pralong, A., Funk, M., and Deichmann, N.: Evidence of log-periodic oscillations and increasing icequake activity during the breaking-off of large ice masses, J. Glaciol., 54, 725–737, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308786570845, 2008.
Faillettaz, J., Funk, M., and Sornette, D.: Icequakes coupled with surface displacements for predicting glacier break-off, J. Glaciol., 57, 453–460, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311796905668, 2011a.
Faillettaz, J., Sornette, D., and Funk, M.: Numerical modeling of a gravity-driven instability of a cold hanging glacier: reanalysis of the 1895 break-off of Altelsgletscher, Switzerland, J. Glaciol., 57, 817–831, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311798043852, 2011b.
Faillettaz, J., Funk, M., and Sornette, D.: Instabilities on Alpine temperate glaciers: new insights arising from the numerical modelling of Allalingletscher (Valais, Switzerland), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2977–2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2977-2012, 2012.
Download
Short summary
The break-off of a cold hanging glacier could be successfully predicted 10 days in advance thanks to very accurate surface displacement measurements taken right up to the final event. This break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experience a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time.