Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jun 2016
Research article |
| 03 Jun 2016
Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier
Jérome Faillettaz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
3G, UZH, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Martin Funk
VAW, ETHZ, Zürich, Switzerland
Marco Vagliasindi
Fondazione Montagna Sicura, Courmayeur, Aosta Valley, Italy
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Cited
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A decade of detailed observations (2008–2018) in steep bedrock permafrost at the Matterhorn Hörnligrat (Zermatt, CH) S. Weber et al. 10.5194/essd-11-1203-2019
- The use of terrestrial monoscopic time-lapse cameras for surveying glacier flow velocity N. Dematteis et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104185
- Impacts of climate changes on alpinism – A review X. Cailhol et al. 10.1177/03091333251380035
- Analysis of the hazard caused by ice avalanches from the hanging glacier on the Eiger west face S. Margreth et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2017.05.012
- Classification and kinematics of the Planpincieux Glacier break-offs using photographic time-lapse analysis D. Giordan et al. 10.1017/jog.2019.99
- Characteristics of Acoustic Emissions from Soil Subjected to Confined Uniaxial Compression M. Naderi-Boldaji et al. 10.2136/vzj2017.02.0049
- Ice Aprons in the Mont-Blanc Massif (Western European Alps): Topographic Characteristics and Relations with Other Types of Glaciers S. Kaushik et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4051434
- Ice Aprons in the Mont Blanc Massif (Western European Alps): Topographic Characteristics and Relations with Glaciers and Other Types of Perennial Surface Ice Features S. Kaushik et al. 10.3390/rs14215557
- Climbing Mont Blanc (4808 m a.s.l.): What Are the Risks in the Grand Couloir Du Goûter and On the North Face of Mont Blanc Du Tacul? L. Ravanel et al. 10.4000/rga.11765
- Repeated Warning Signals for Sudden Climate Warming: Consequences on Possible Sustainability Policies F. Louchet 10.3390/su17198548
- Ten-Year Monitoring of the Grandes Jorasses Glaciers Kinematics. Limits, Potentialities, and Possible Applications of Different Monitoring Systems N. Dematteis et al. 10.3390/rs13153005
- Rapid mass loss and disappearance of summer-accumulation type hanging glacier C. Xu et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.11.001
- Unified failure model for landslides, rockbursts, glaciers, and volcanoes Q. Lei & D. Sornette 10.1038/s43247-025-02369-z
- Diagnosis and Prediction of IIGPS’ Countries Bubble Crashes during BREXIT B. Ghosh et al. 10.3390/math9091003
- Reconstruction and Characterisation of Past and the Most Recent Slope Failure Events at the 2021 Rock-Ice Avalanche Site in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya A. Bhardwaj & L. Sam 10.3390/rs14040949
- Evaluating possible glacial modification in the Martian tropics near Gale crater using a new U-shaped valley metric J. Williams et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109454
- Dynamics and related hazards of the Belvedere Glacier in the Italian Alps: a review J. Kropáček et al. 10.14712/23361980.2024.21
- Ascension du mont Blanc (4808 m) : quels risques prend-on dans le Grand Couloir du Goûter et dans la face nord du mont Blanc du Tacul ? L. Ravanel et al. 10.4000/rga.11728
- Modeling Snow Failure Behavior and Concurrent Acoustic Emissions Signatures With a Fiber Bundle Model A. Capelli et al. 10.1029/2019GL082382
- Evidences of Bedrock Forcing on Glacier Morphodynamics: A Case Study in Italian Alps N. Dematteis et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.793546
- Avalanche hazard mapping in Langtang, Nepal Y. ITO et al. 10.5331/bgr.23A01
- Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge A. Acharya et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A decade of detailed observations (2008–2018) in steep bedrock permafrost at the Matterhorn Hörnligrat (Zermatt, CH) S. Weber et al. 10.5194/essd-11-1203-2019
- The use of terrestrial monoscopic time-lapse cameras for surveying glacier flow velocity N. Dematteis et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104185
- Impacts of climate changes on alpinism – A review X. Cailhol et al. 10.1177/03091333251380035
- Analysis of the hazard caused by ice avalanches from the hanging glacier on the Eiger west face S. Margreth et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2017.05.012
- Classification and kinematics of the Planpincieux Glacier break-offs using photographic time-lapse analysis D. Giordan et al. 10.1017/jog.2019.99
- Characteristics of Acoustic Emissions from Soil Subjected to Confined Uniaxial Compression M. Naderi-Boldaji et al. 10.2136/vzj2017.02.0049
- Ice Aprons in the Mont-Blanc Massif (Western European Alps): Topographic Characteristics and Relations with Other Types of Glaciers S. Kaushik et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4051434
- Ice Aprons in the Mont Blanc Massif (Western European Alps): Topographic Characteristics and Relations with Glaciers and Other Types of Perennial Surface Ice Features S. Kaushik et al. 10.3390/rs14215557
- Climbing Mont Blanc (4808 m a.s.l.): What Are the Risks in the Grand Couloir Du Goûter and On the North Face of Mont Blanc Du Tacul? L. Ravanel et al. 10.4000/rga.11765
- Repeated Warning Signals for Sudden Climate Warming: Consequences on Possible Sustainability Policies F. Louchet 10.3390/su17198548
- Ten-Year Monitoring of the Grandes Jorasses Glaciers Kinematics. Limits, Potentialities, and Possible Applications of Different Monitoring Systems N. Dematteis et al. 10.3390/rs13153005
- Rapid mass loss and disappearance of summer-accumulation type hanging glacier C. Xu et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.11.001
- Unified failure model for landslides, rockbursts, glaciers, and volcanoes Q. Lei & D. Sornette 10.1038/s43247-025-02369-z
- Diagnosis and Prediction of IIGPS’ Countries Bubble Crashes during BREXIT B. Ghosh et al. 10.3390/math9091003
- Reconstruction and Characterisation of Past and the Most Recent Slope Failure Events at the 2021 Rock-Ice Avalanche Site in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya A. Bhardwaj & L. Sam 10.3390/rs14040949
- Evaluating possible glacial modification in the Martian tropics near Gale crater using a new U-shaped valley metric J. Williams et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109454
- Dynamics and related hazards of the Belvedere Glacier in the Italian Alps: a review J. Kropáček et al. 10.14712/23361980.2024.21
- Ascension du mont Blanc (4808 m) : quels risques prend-on dans le Grand Couloir du Goûter et dans la face nord du mont Blanc du Tacul ? L. Ravanel et al. 10.4000/rga.11728
- Modeling Snow Failure Behavior and Concurrent Acoustic Emissions Signatures With a Fiber Bundle Model A. Capelli et al. 10.1029/2019GL082382
- Evidences of Bedrock Forcing on Glacier Morphodynamics: A Case Study in Italian Alps N. Dematteis et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.793546
- Avalanche hazard mapping in Langtang, Nepal Y. ITO et al. 10.5331/bgr.23A01
- Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge A. Acharya et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023
Saved (preprint)
Latest update: 31 Oct 2025
Short summary
The break-off of a cold hanging glacier could be successfully predicted 10 days in advance thanks to very accurate surface displacement measurements taken right up to the final event.
This break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experience a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture.
This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time.
The break-off of a cold hanging glacier could be successfully predicted 10 days in advance...
