Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Apr 2025
Research article |
| 01 Apr 2025
| 01 Apr 2025
Recent observations and glacier modeling point towards near-complete glacier loss in western Austria (Ötztal and Stubai mountain range) if 1.5 °C is not met
Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria
Alaska Climate Research Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, USA
Patrick Schmitt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Lilian Schuster
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Kay Helfricht
Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria
Hydrological Service Tyrol, Office of the Tyrolean Government, Innsbruck, Austria
Jakob Abermann
Department of Geography and Regional Science, Graz University, Graz, Austria
Fabien Maussion
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Related authors
Lea Hartl, Federico Covi, Martin Stocker-Waldhuber, Anna Baldo, Davide Fugazza, Biagio Di Mauro, and Kathrin Naegeli
The Cryosphere, 19, 3329–3353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3329-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier albedo determines how much solar radiation is absorbed by the glacier surface and is a key driver of glacier melt. Alpine glaciers are losing their snow and firn cover, and the underlying darker ice is becoming exposed. This means that more solar radiation is absorbed by the ice, which leads to increased melt. To quantify these processes, we explore data from a high-elevation, on-ice weather station that measures albedo and combine this information with satellite imagery.
Florina Roana Schalamon, Sebastian Scher, Andreas Trügler, Lea Hartl, Wolfgang Schöner, and Jakob Abermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4060, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric patterns influence the air temperature in Greenland. We investigate two warming periods, from 1922–1932 and 1993–2007, both showing similar temperature increases. Using a neural network-based clustering method, we defined predominant atmospheric patterns for further analysis. Our findings reveal that while the connection between these patterns and local air temperature remains stable, the distribution of patterns changes between the warming periods and the full period (1900–2015).
Lea Hartl, Bernd Seiser, Martin Stocker-Waldhuber, Anna Baldo, Marcela Violeta Lauria, and Andrea Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4077–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4077-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in the Alps are receding at unprecedented rates. To understand how this affects the hydrology and ecosystems of the affected regions, it is important to measure glacier mass balance and ensure that records of field surveys are kept in standardized formats and well-documented. We describe glaciological measurements of ice ablation and snow accumulation gathered at Mullwitzkees and Venedigerkees, two glaciers in the Austrian Alps, since 2007 and 2012, respectively.
Lea Hartl, Thomas Zieher, Magnus Bremer, Martin Stocker-Waldhuber, Vivien Zahs, Bernhard Höfle, Christoph Klug, and Alessandro Cicoira
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 117–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The rock glacier in Äußeres Hochebenkar (Austria) moved faster in 2021–2022 than it has in about 70 years of monitoring. It is currently destabilizing. Using a combination of different data types and methods, we show that there have been two cycles of destabilization at Hochebenkar and provide a detailed analysis of velocity and surface changes. Because our time series are very long and show repeated destabilization, this helps us better understand the processes of rock glacier destabilization.
Lea Hartl, Lucia Felbauer, Gabriele Schwaizer, and Andrea Fischer
The Cryosphere, 14, 4063–4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4063-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When glaciers become snow-free in summer, darker glacier ice is exposed. The ice surface is darker than snow and absorbs more radiation, which increases ice melt. We measured how much radiation is reflected at different wavelengths in the ablation zone of Jamtalferner, Austria. Due to impurities and water on the ice surface there are large variations in reflectance. Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 surface reflectance products do not capture the full range of reflectance found on the glacier.
Lea Hartl, Federico Covi, Martin Stocker-Waldhuber, Anna Baldo, Davide Fugazza, Biagio Di Mauro, and Kathrin Naegeli
The Cryosphere, 19, 3329–3353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3329-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier albedo determines how much solar radiation is absorbed by the glacier surface and is a key driver of glacier melt. Alpine glaciers are losing their snow and firn cover, and the underlying darker ice is becoming exposed. This means that more solar radiation is absorbed by the ice, which leads to increased melt. To quantify these processes, we explore data from a high-elevation, on-ice weather station that measures albedo and combine this information with satellite imagery.
Matthew B. Switanek, Jakob Abermann, Wolfgang Schöner, and Michael L. Anderson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3881, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme precipitation is expected to increase in a warming climate. Measurements of precipitation and dew point temperature are often used to estimate observed precipitation-temperature scaling rates. In this study, we use three different approaches which rely on either raw or normalized data to estimate scaling rates and produce predictions of extreme precipitation. Our findings highlight the importance of using normalized data to obtain accurate observation-based scaling estimates.
Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion, Daniel N. Goldberg, and Philipp Gregor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3401, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
To improve large-scale understanding of glaciers, we developed a new data assimilation method that integrates available observations in a dynamically consistent way, while taking their timestamps into account. It is designed to flexibly include new glacier data as it becomes available. We tested the method with idealized experiments and found promising results in terms of accuracy and efficiency, showing strong potential for real-world applications.
Jonathan Fipper, Jakob Abermann, Ingo Sasgen, Henrik Skov, Lise Lotte Sørensen, and Wolfgang Schöner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3381, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
We use measurements conducted with uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and reanalysis data to study the drivers of vertical air temperature structures and their link to the surface mass balance of Flade Isblink, a large ice cap in Northeast Greenland. Surface properties control temperature structures up to 100 m above ground, while large-scale circulation dominates above. Mass loss has increased since 2015, with record loss in 2023 associated with frequent synoptic conditions favoring melt.
Jakob Steiner, William Armstrong, Will Kochtitzky, Robert McNabb, Rodrigo Aguayo, Tobias Bolch, Fabien Maussion, Vibhor Agarwal, Iestyn Barr, Nathaniel R. Baurley, Mike Cloutier, Katelyn DeWater, Frank Donachie, Yoann Drocourt, Siddhi Garg, Gunjan Joshi, Byron Guzman, Stanislav Kutuzov, Thomas Loriaux, Caleb Mathias, Biran Menounos, Evan Miles, Aleksandra Osika, Kaleigh Potter, Adina Racoviteanu, Brianna Rick, Miles Sterner, Guy D. Tallentire, Levan Tielidze, Rebecca White, Kunpeng Wu, and Whyjay Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-315, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-315, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Many mountain glaciers around the world flow into lakes – exactly how many however, has never been mapped. Across a large team of experts we have now identified all glaciers that end in lakes. Only about 1% do so, but they are generally larger than those which end on land. This is important to understand, as lakes can influence the behaviour of glacier ice, including how fast it disappears. This new dataset allows us to better model glaciers at a global scale, accounting for the effect of lakes.
Jakob Steiner, Jakob Abermann, and Rainer Prinz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2424, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Ice in Greenland either ends in the ocean or on land and in lakes. We show that more than 95% of the margin ends on land. Ice ending in lakes is much rarer, but with 1.4% quite similar to the 2.2% ending in oceans. We also see that more than 20% of the margin ends in extremely steep, often vertical cliffs. We will now be able to compare these maps against local ice velocities, mass loss and climate to understand whether the margin shape teaches us something about the health of ice in the region.
Lorenz Hänchen, Emily Potter, Cornelia Klein, Pierluigi Calanca, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2727–2747, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2727-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In semi-arid regions, the timing and duration of the rainy season are crucial for agriculture. This study introduces a new framework for improving estimations of the onset and end of the rainy season by testing how well they fit local vegetation data. We improve the performance of existing methods and present a new one with higher performance. Our findings can help us to make informed decisions about water usage, and the framework can be applied to other regions as well.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
The Cryosphere, 19, 1491–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Jordi Bolibar, Marijn van der Meer, Liss Marie Andreassen, Julian Peter Biesheuvel, Thorben Dunse, Matthias Huss, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, and Brandon Tober
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1206, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding glacier mass changes is crucial for assessing freshwater availability in many regions of the world. We present the Mass Balance Machine, a machine learning model that learns from sparse measurements of glacier mass change to make predictions on unmonitored glaciers. Using data from Norway, we show that the model provides accurate estimates of mass changes at different spatiotemporal scales. Our findings show that machine learning can be a valuable tool to improve such predictions.
Florina Roana Schalamon, Sebastian Scher, Andreas Trügler, Lea Hartl, Wolfgang Schöner, and Jakob Abermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4060, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric patterns influence the air temperature in Greenland. We investigate two warming periods, from 1922–1932 and 1993–2007, both showing similar temperature increases. Using a neural network-based clustering method, we defined predominant atmospheric patterns for further analysis. Our findings reveal that while the connection between these patterns and local air temperature remains stable, the distribution of patterns changes between the warming periods and the full period (1900–2015).
Jorrit van der Schot, Jakob Abermann, Tiago Silva, Kerstin Rasmussen, Michael Winkler, Kirsty Langley, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 18, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present snow data from nine locations in coastal Greenland. We show that a reanalysis product (CARRA) simulates seasonal snow characteristics better than a regional climate model (RACMO). CARRA output matches particularly well with our reference dataset when we look at the maximum snow water equivalent and the snow cover end date. We show that seasonal snow in coastal Greenland has large spatial and temporal variability and find little evidence of trends in snow cover characteristics.
Bernhard Hynek, Daniel Binder, Michele Citterio, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Jakob Abermann, Geert Verhoeven, Elke Ludewig, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 18, 5481–5494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An avalanche event in February 2018 caused thick snow deposits on Freya Glacier, a peripheral mountain glacier in northeastern Greenland. The avalanche deposits contributed significantly to the mass balance, leaving a strong imprint in the elevation changes in 2013–2021. The 8-year geodetic mass balance (2013–2021) of the glacier is positive, whereas previous estimates by direct measurements were negative and now turned out to have a negative bias.
Rodrigo Aguayo, Fabien Maussion, Lilian Schuster, Marius Schaefer, Alexis Caro, Patrick Schmitt, Jonathan Mackay, Lizz Ultee, Jorge Leon-Muñoz, and Mauricio Aguayo
The Cryosphere, 18, 5383–5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of the historical climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 18, 5045–5066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Tiago Silva, Brandon Samuel Whitley, Elisabeth Machteld Biersma, Jakob Abermann, Katrine Raundrup, Natasha de Vere, Toke Thomas Høye, and Wolfgang Schöner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2571, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystems in Greenland have experienced significant changes over recent decades. Here, we show the consistency of a high-resolution polar-adapted reanalysis product to represent bio-climatic factors influencing ecological processes. Our results describe the interaction between snowmelt and soil water availability before the growing season onset, infer how changes in the growing season relate to changes in spectral greenness and identify regions of ongoing changes in vegetation distribution.
Lea Hartl, Bernd Seiser, Martin Stocker-Waldhuber, Anna Baldo, Marcela Violeta Lauria, and Andrea Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4077–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4077-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in the Alps are receding at unprecedented rates. To understand how this affects the hydrology and ecosystems of the affected regions, it is important to measure glacier mass balance and ensure that records of field surveys are kept in standardized formats and well-documented. We describe glaciological measurements of ice ablation and snow accumulation gathered at Mullwitzkees and Venedigerkees, two glaciers in the Austrian Alps, since 2007 and 2012, respectively.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Marin Kneib, Amaury Dehecq, Fanny Brun, Fatima Karbou, Laurane Charrier, Silvan Leinss, Patrick Wagnon, and Fabien Maussion
The Cryosphere, 18, 2809–2830, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are important for the mass balance of mountain glaciers, but few data exist on where and when they occur and which glaciers they affect the most. We developed an approach to map avalanches over large glaciated areas and long periods of time using satellite radar data. The application of this method to various regions in the Alps and High Mountain Asia reveals the variability of avalanches on these glaciers and provides key data to better represent these processes in glacier models.
Christoph Posch, Jakob Abermann, and Tiago Silva
The Cryosphere, 18, 2035–2059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Radar beams from satellites exhibit reflection differences between water and ice. This condition, as well as the comprehensive coverage and high temporal resolution of the Sentinel-1 satellites, allows automatically detecting the timing of when ice cover of lakes in Greenland disappear. We found that lake ice breaks up 3 d later per 100 m elevation gain and that the average break-up timing varies by ±8 d in 2017–2021, which has major implications for the energy budget of the lakes.
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g. 100 year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations, to get more accurate information on 5–10 year time scales. Reliable information on these time scales is very important, especially for water management experts to know how much meltwater to expect, for rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
Florian Lippl, Alexander Maringer, Margit Kurka, Jakob Abermann, Wolfgang Schöner, and Manuela Hirschmugl
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-12, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of our work was to give an overview of data currently available for the National Park Gesäuse and Johnsbachtal relevant to the European long-term ecosystem monitoring. This data, further was made available on respective data repositories, where all data is downloadable free of charge. Data presented in our paper is from all compartments, the atmosphere, social & economic sphere, biosphere and geosphere. We consider our approach as an opportunity to function as a showcase for other sites.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Jordi Bolibar, Facundo Sapienza, Fabien Maussion, Redouane Lguensat, Bert Wouters, and Fernando Pérez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6671–6687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise.
Sonika Shahi, Jakob Abermann, Tiago Silva, Kirsty Langley, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Mikhail Mastepanov, and Wolfgang Schöner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 747–771, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights how the sea ice variability in the Greenland Sea affects the terrestrial climate and the surface mass changes of peripheral glaciers of the Zackenberg region (ZR), Northeast Greenland, combining model output and observations. Our results show that the temporal evolution of sea ice influences the climate anomaly magnitude in the ZR. We also found that the changing temperature and precipitation patterns due to sea ice variability can affect the surface mass of the ice cap.
Annelies Voordendag, Rainer Prinz, Lilian Schuster, and Georg Kaser
The Cryosphere, 17, 3661–3665, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Glacier Loss Day (GLD) is the day on which all mass gained from the accumulation period is lost, and the glacier loses mass irrecoverably for the rest of the mass balance year. In 2022, the GLD was already reached on 23 June at Hintereisferner (Austria), and this led to a record-breaking mass loss. We introduce the GLD as a gross yet expressive indicator of the glacier’s imbalance with a persistently warming climate.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Lea Hartl, Thomas Zieher, Magnus Bremer, Martin Stocker-Waldhuber, Vivien Zahs, Bernhard Höfle, Christoph Klug, and Alessandro Cicoira
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 117–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The rock glacier in Äußeres Hochebenkar (Austria) moved faster in 2021–2022 than it has in about 70 years of monitoring. It is currently destabilizing. Using a combination of different data types and methods, we show that there have been two cycles of destabilization at Hochebenkar and provide a detailed analysis of velocity and surface changes. Because our time series are very long and show repeated destabilization, this helps us better understand the processes of rock glacier destabilization.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Jonathan P. Conway, Jakob Abermann, Liss M. Andreassen, Mohd Farooq Azam, Nicolas J. Cullen, Noel Fitzpatrick, Rianne H. Giesen, Kirsty Langley, Shelley MacDonell, Thomas Mölg, Valentina Radić, Carleen H. Reijmer, and Jean-Emmanuel Sicart
The Cryosphere, 16, 3331–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3331-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used data from automatic weather stations on 16 glaciers to show how clouds influence glacier melt in different climates around the world. We found surface melt was always more frequent when it was cloudy but was not universally faster or slower than under clear-sky conditions. Also, air temperature was related to clouds in opposite ways in different climates – warmer with clouds in cold climates and vice versa. These results will help us improve how we model past and future glacier melt.
Thomas Goelles, Tobias Hammer, Stefan Muckenhuber, Birgit Schlager, Jakob Abermann, Christian Bauer, Víctor J. Expósito Jiménez, Wolfgang Schöner, Markus Schratter, Benjamin Schrei, and Kim Senger
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 11, 247–261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a newly developed modular MObile LIdar SENsor System (MOLISENS) to enable new applications for small industrial light detection and ranging (lidar) sensors. MOLISENS supports both monitoring of dynamic processes and mobile mapping applications. The mobile mapping application of MOLISENS has been tested under various conditions, and results are shown from two surveys in the Lurgrotte cave system in Austria and a glacier cave in Longyearbreen on Svalbard.
Lorenz Hänchen, Cornelia Klein, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Pierluigi Calanca, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 595–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To date, farmers' perceptions of hydrological changes do not match analysis of meteorological data. In contrast to rainfall data, we find greening of vegetation, indicating increased water availability in the past decades. The start of the season is highly variable, making farmers' perceptions comprehensible. We show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has complex effects on vegetation seasonality but does not drive the greening we observe. Improved onset forecasts could help local farmers.
Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, Lukas Langhamer, and Gina E. Moseley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and moisture sources over an arid region in northeast Greenland are investigated from 1979 to 2017 by a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic driven by reanalysis data. Dominant winter moisture sources are the North Atlantic above 45° N. In summer local and north Eurasian continental sources dominate. In positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, evaporation and moisture transport from the Norwegian Sea are stronger, resulting in more precipitation.
Lea Hartl, Lucia Felbauer, Gabriele Schwaizer, and Andrea Fischer
The Cryosphere, 14, 4063–4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4063-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When glaciers become snow-free in summer, darker glacier ice is exposed. The ice surface is darker than snow and absorbs more radiation, which increases ice melt. We measured how much radiation is reflected at different wavelengths in the ablation zone of Jamtalferner, Austria. Due to impurities and water on the ice surface there are large variations in reflectance. Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 surface reflectance products do not capture the full range of reflectance found on the glacier.
Cited articles
Abermann, J., Kuhn, M., and Fischer, A.: Climatic controls of glacier distribution and glacier changes in Austria, Ann. Glaciol., 52, 83–90, 2011. a
Aguayo, R., Maussion, F., Schuster, L., Schaefer, M., Caro, A., Schmitt, P., Mackay, J., Ultee, L., Leon-Muñoz, J., and Aguayo, M.: Unravelling the sources of uncertainty in glacier runoff projections in the Patagonian Andes (40–56° S), The Cryosphere, 18, 5383–5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, 2024. a, b, c, d
Akhtar, M., Ahmad, N., and Booij, M. J.: The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios, J. Hydrol., 355, 148–163, 2008. a
Ambach, W. and Eisner, H.: Analysis of a 20 m. firn pit on the Kesselwandferner (Ötztal Alps), J. Glaciol., 6, 223–231, 1966. a
Baraer, M., Mark, B. G., McKenzie, J. M., Condom, T., Bury, J., Huh, K.-I., Portocarrero, C., Gómez, J., and Rathay, S.: Glacier recession and water resources in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca, J. Glaciol., 58, 134–150, 2012. a
Berthier, E., Floriciou, D., Gardner, A. S., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Paul, F., Treichler, D., Wouters, B., Belart, J. M., Dehecq, A., Dussaillant, I., Hugonnet, R., Kääb, A., Krieger, L., Pálsson, F., and Zemp, M.: Measuring glacier mass changes from space – a review, Reports on Progress in Physics, 86, 036801, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/acaf8e, 2023. a
Bosson, J.-B., Huss, M., Cauvy-Fraunié, S., Clément, J.-C., Costes, G., Fischer, M., Poulenard, J., and Arthaud, F.: Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat, Nature, 620, 562–569, 2023. a
Brun, F., Berthier, E., Wagnon, P., Kääb, A., and Treichler, D.: A spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances from 2000 to 2016, Nat. Geosci., 10, 668–673, 2017. a
Buckel, J. and Otto, J.-C.: The Austrian Glacier Inventory GI 4 (2015) in ArcGis (shapefile) format, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.887415, 2018. a, b
Cannone, N., Diolaiuti, G., Guglielmin, M., and Smiraglia, C.: Accelerating climate change impacts on alpine glacier forefield ecosystems in the European Alps, Ecol. Appl., 18, 637–648, 2008. a
Carey, M., Molden, O. C., Rasmussen, M. B., Jackson, M., Nolin, A. W., and Mark, B. G.: Impacts of glacier recession and declining meltwater on mountain societies, Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr., 107, 350–359, 2017. a
Compagno, L., Huss, M., Miles, E. S., McCarthy, M. J., Zekollari, H., Dehecq, A., Pellicciotti, F., and Farinotti, D.: Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single-glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia, The Cryosphere, 16, 1697–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, 2022. a
Cook, S. J., Jouvet, G., Millan, R., Rabatel, A., Zekollari, H., and Dussaillant, I.: Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep‐Learning‐Aided 3D Ice‐Flow Model With Data Assimilation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105029, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl105029, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q
Debeer, C. M. and Sharp, M. J.: Recent changes in glacier area and volume within the southern Canadian Cordillera, Ann. Glaciol., 46, 215–221, 2007. a
Egli, P. E., Belotti, B., Ouvry, B., Irving, J., and Lane, S. N.: Subglacial channels, climate warming, and increasing frequency of Alpine glacier snout collapse, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL096031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096031, 2021. a
Eis, J., Maussion, F., and Marzeion, B.: Initialization of a global glacier model based on present-day glacier geometry and past climate information: an ensemble approach, The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Finsterwalder, S.: Der Vernagtferner, seine Geschichte und seine Vermessung in den Jahren 1888 und 1898, Wissenschaftliche Ergänzungshefte zur Zeitschrift des Deutschen und Österreichischen Alpenvereins, Verlag des D. u. Ö. AV, Graz, 112 pp., 1897, Wissenschaftliche Ergänzungshefte zur Zeitschrift des Deutschen und Österreichischen Alpenvereins, Verlag des D. u. Ö. AV, 112 pp., 1897. a
Fischer, A., Seiser, B., Stocker-Waldhuber, M., and Abermann, J.: The Austrian Glacier Inventory GI 3, 2006, in ArcGIS (shapefile) format, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.844985, 2015a. a, b, c
Fischer, A., Seiser, B., Stocker Waldhuber, M., Mitterer, C., and Abermann, J.: Tracing glacier changes in Austria from the Little Ice Age to the present using a lidar-based high-resolution glacier inventory in Austria, The Cryosphere, 9, 753–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-753-2015, 2015b. a, b, c, d, e, f
Fischer, M., Huss, M., and Hoelzle, M.: Surface elevation and mass changes of all Swiss glaciers 1980–2010, The Cryosphere, 9, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-525-2015, 2015c. a, b, c
Florentine, C., Harper, J., and Fagre, D.: Parsing complex terrain controls on mountain glacier response to climate forcing, Global Planet. Change, 191, 103209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103209, 2020. a
Gardent, M., Rabatel, A., Dedieu, J.-P., and Deline, P.: Multitemporal glacier inventory of the French Alps from the late 1960s to the late 2000s, Global Planet. Change, 120, 24–37, 2014. a
Groß, G. and Patzelt, G.: The Austrian Glacier Inventory for the Little Ice Age Maximum (GI LIA) in ArcGIS (shapefile) format, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.844987, 2015. a, b
Hanzer, F., Förster, K., Nemec, J., and Strasser, U.: Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1593–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f
Hartl, L., Helfricht, K., Stocker-Waldhuber, M., Seiser, B., and Fischer, A.: Classifying disequilibrium of small mountain glaciers from patterns of surface elevation change distributions, J. Glaciol., 68, 253–268, 2022. a
Helfricht, K., Huss, M., Fischer, A., and Otto, J.-C.: Spatial ice thickness distribution and glacier bed elevation for glaciers of the third Austrian Glacier Inventory (GI3), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.898651, 2019b. a
Helfricht, K., Hartl, L., Stocker-Waldhuber, M., Seiser, B., and Fischer, A.: Glacier inventory Ötztal Alps 2017, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.965798, 2024a. a, b
Helfricht, K., Hartl, L., Stocker-Waldhuber, M., Seiser, B., and Fischer, A.: Glacier inventory Stubai Alps 2017/2018, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.965791, 2024b. a, b
Hiebl, J. and Frei, C.: Daily temperature grids for Austria since 1961 – concept, creation and applicability, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 124, 161–178, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1411-4, 2015. a
Hiebl, J. and Frei, C.: Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961 – development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 132, 327–345, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2093-x, 2017. a, b
Hoinkes, H. and Rudolph, R.: Mass balance studies on the Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, 1952–1961, J. Glaciol., 4, 266–280, 1962. a
Hoinkes, H. C.: Surges of the Vernagtferner in the Ötztal Alps since 1599, Can. J. Earth Sci., 6, 853–861, 1969. a
Hugonnet, R., McNabb, R., Berthier, E., Menounos, B., Nuth, C., Girod, L., Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Dussaillant, I., Brun, F., and Kääb, A.: Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century, Nature, 592, 726–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z, 2021a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Hugonnet, R., McNabb, R., Berthier, E., Menounos, B., Nuth, C., Girod, L., Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Dussaillant, I., Brun, F., and Kääb, A.: Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century, SEDOO [data set], https://doi.org/10.6096/13, 2021b. a
Huss, M.: Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage basins in Europe, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07511, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010299, 2011. a
Huss, M.: Density assumptions for converting geodetic glacier volume change to mass change, The Cryosphere, 7, 877–887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-877-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Huss, M. and Farinotti, D.: Distributed ice thickness and volume of all glaciers around the globe, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 117, F04010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jf002523, 2012. a, b, c
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise, Front. Earth Sci., 3, 117, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00054, 2015. a, b, c
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 135–140, 2018. a
Huss, M., Jouvet, G., Farinotti, D., and Bauder, A.: Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-815-2010, 2010. a
Hynek, B., Binder, D., Citterio, M., Larsen, S. H., Abermann, J., Verhoeven, G., Ludewig, E., and Schöner, W.: Accumulation by avalanches as a significant contributor to the mass balance of a peripheral glacier of Greenland, The Cryosphere, 18, 5481–5494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5481-2024, 2024. a
IPPC: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9781009157971, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964, 2019. a
Kellerer-Pirklbauer, A. and Kulmer, B.: The evolution of brittle and ductile structures at the surface of a partly debris-covered, rapidly thinning and slowly moving glacier in 1998–2012 (Pasterze Glacier, Austria), Earth Surf. Process. Landf., 44, 1034–1049, 2019. a
Kneib, M., Dehecq, A., Brun, F., Karbou, F., Charrier, L., Leinss, S., Wagnon, P., and Maussion, F.: Mapping and characterization of avalanches on mountain glaciers with Sentinel-1 satellite imagery, The Cryosphere, 18, 2809–2830, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2809-2024, 2024a. a
Kneib, M., Dehecq, A., Gilbert, A., Basset, A., Miles, E. S., Jouvet, G., Jourdain, B., Ducasse, E., Beraud, L., Rabatel, A., Mouginot, J., Carcanade, G., Laarman, O., Brun, F., and Six, D.: Distributed surface mass balance of an avalanche-fed glacier, The Cryosphere, 18, 5965–5983, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5965-2024, 2024b. a, b, c
Kuhn, M., Lambrecht, A., and Abermann, J.: Austrian glacier inventory 1998 (GI II), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.809196, 2013. a
Kuhn, M., Lambrecht, A., and Abermann, J.: The Austrian glacier inventory GI 2, 1998, in ArcGIS (shapefile) format, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.844984, 2015. a
Lambrecht, A. and Kuhn, M.: Glacier changes in the Austrian Alps during the last three decades, derived from the new Austrian glacier inventory, Ann. Glaciol., 46, 177–184, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871341, 2007. a, b, c
Land Tirol/Abt. Geoinformation: Laserscansdaten, Land Tirol [data set], https://www.tirol.gv.at/sicherheit/geoinformation/geodaten-tiris/laserscandaten/, last access: 25 March 2025. a
Linsbauer, A., Huss, M., Hodel, E., Bauder, A., Fischer, M., Weidmann, Y., Bärtschi, H., and Schmassmann, E.: The New Swiss Glacier Inventory SGI2016: from a topographical to a glaciological dataset, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 704189, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.704189, 2021. a, b
Marzeion, B., Jarosch, A. H., and Hofer, M.: Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers, The Cryosphere, 6, 1295–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012, 2012. a
Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Anderson, B., Bliss, A., Champollion, N., Fujita, K., Huss, M., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P., Malles, J., Maussion, F., Radić, V., Rounce, D. R., Sakai, A., Shannon, S., van de Wal, R., and Zekollari, H.: Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change, Earth’s Future, 8, e2019EF001470, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001470, 2020. a, b, c
Maussion, F. and Schmitt, P.: OGGM/oggm_projections_pitztal_oetztal_stubaital: v0.1, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.11072662, 2024. a
Maussion, F., Butenko, A., Champollion, N., Dusch, M., Eis, J., Fourteau, K., Gregor, P., Jarosch, A. H., Landmann, J., Oesterle, F., Recinos, B., Rothenpieler, T., Vlug, A., Wild, C. T., and Marzeion, B.: The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019. a, b, c
Maussion, F., Rothenpieler, T., Dusch, M., Schmitt, P., Vlug, A., Schuster, L., Champollion, N., Li, F., Marzeion, B., Oberrauch, M., Eis, J., Fischer, A., Landmann, J., Jarosch, A., Luzpaz, Hanus, S., Rounce, D., Castellani, M., Bartholomew, S. L., Minallah, S., Bowenbelongstonature, Merrill, C., Otto, D., Loibl, D., Rosa, G., Lizz Ultee, Schmitty Thompson, Anton-Ub, and Gregor, P.: OGGM/oggm: v1.6.1, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.8287580, 2023. a, b
Menounos, B., Hugonnet, R., Shean, D., Gardner, A., Howat, I., Berthier, E., Pelto, B., Tennant, C., Shea, J., Noh, M.-J., Brun, F., and Dehecq, A.: Heterogeneous changes in western North American glaciers linked to decadal variability in zonal wind strength, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 200–209, 2019. a
Nuth, C. and Kääb, A.: Co-registration and bias corrections of satellite elevation data sets for quantifying glacier thickness change, The Cryosphere, 5, 271–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-271-2011, 2011. a
Patzelt, G.: Austrian glacier inventory 1969 (GI I), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.807098, 2013. a
Paul, F., Barry, R. G., Cogley, J. G., Frey, H., Haeberli, W., Ohmura, A., Simon, C., Ommanney, L., Raup, B., Rivera, A., and Zemp, M.: Recommendations for the compilation of glacier inventory data from digital sources, Ann. Glaciol., 50, 119–126, 2009. a
Paul, F., Rastner, P., Azzoni, R. S., Diolaiuti, G., Fugazza, D., Le Bris, R., Nemec, J., Rabatel, A., Ramusovic, M., Schwaizer, G., and Smiraglia, C.: Glacier shrinkage in the Alps continues unabated as revealed by a new glacier inventory from Sentinel-2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1805–1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1805-2020, 2020. a, b
Pfeffer, W. T., Arendt, A. A., Bliss, A., Bolch, T., Cogley, J. G., Gardner, A. S., Hagen, J.-O., Hock, R., Kaser, G., Kienholz, C., Miles, E. S., Moholdt, G., Mölg, N., Paul, F., Radić, V., Rastner, P., Raup, B. H., Rich, J., Sharp, M. J., and The Randolph Consortium: The Randolph Glacier Inventory: a globally complete inventory of glaciers, J. Glaciol., 60, 537–552, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014jog13j176, 2014. a, b, c
Radić, V. and Hock, R.: Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise, Nat. Geosci., 4, 91–94, 2011. a
Randolph Glacier Inventory Consortium: Randolph Glacier Inventory 6.0, Boulder, Colorado USA, NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60, 2017. a, b, c, d
Randolph Glacier Inventory Consortium: Randolph Glacier Inventory 7.0, Boulder, Colorado USA, National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/f6jmovy5navz, 2023. a
Rounce, D. R., Hock, R., and Shean, D. E.: Glacier mass change in High Mountain Asia through 2100 using the open-source python glacier evolution model (PyGEM), Front. Earth Sci., 7, 331, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00331, 2020a. a
Rounce, D. R., Khurana, T., Short, M. B., Hock, R., Shean, D. E., and Brinkerhoff, D. J.: Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a large-scale glacier evolution model using Bayesian inference: application to High Mountain Asia, J. Glaciol., 66, 175–187, 2020b. a
Rounce, D. R., Hock, R., Maussion, F., Hugonnet, R., Kochtitzky, W., Huss, M., Berthier, E., Brinkerhoff, D., Compagno, L., Copland, L., Farinotti, D., Menounos, B., and McNabb, R. W.: Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters, Science, 379, 78–83, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo1324, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n
Schuster, L., Schmitt, P., Vlug, A., and Maussion, F.: OGGM/oggm-standard-projections-csv-files: v1.0, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.8286064, 2023b. a
Sommer, C., Malz, P., Seehaus, T. C., Lippl, S., Zemp, M., and Braun, M. H.: Rapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the early 21st century, Nat. Commun., 11, 3209, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16818-0, 2020. a
Stocker-Waldhuber, M., Fischer, A., Keller, L., Morche, D., and Kuhn, M.: Funnel-shaped surface depressions – Indicator or accelerant of rapid glacier disintegration? A case study in the Tyrolean Alps, Geomorphology, 287, 58–72, 2017. a
Strasser, U., Marke, T., Braun, L., Escher-Vetter, H., Juen, I., Kuhn, M., Maussion, F., Mayer, C., Nicholson, L., Niedertscheider, K., Sailer, R., Stötter, J., Weber, M., and Kaser, G.: The Rofental: a high Alpine research basin (1890–3770 m a.s.l.) in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) with over 150 years of hydrometeorological and glaciological observations, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 151–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-151-2018, 2018. a, b
Strasser, U., Warscher, M., Rottler, E., and Hanzer, F.: openAMUNDSEN v1.0: an open-source snow-hydrological model for mountain regions, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6775–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, 2024. a
Werder, M. A., Huss, M., Paul, F., Dehecq, A., and Farinotti, D.: A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications, J. Glaciol., 66, 137–152, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.93, 2019. a
WGMS: Fluctuations of Glaciers Database, World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2023-09, 2023. a, b, c
Wytiahlowsky, H., Busfield, M., Hepburn, A., and Lukas, S.: Deglaciation patterns in the Upper Zemmgrund, Austria: An exploration of clean-ice disintegration scenarios, Geomorphology, 452, 109113, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109113, 2024. a
Zekollari, H., Huss, M., Schuster, L., Maussion, F., Rounce, D. R., Aguayo, R., Champollion, N., Compagno, L., Hugonnet, R., Marzeion, B., Mojtabavi, S., and Farinotti, D.: Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations, The Cryosphere, 18, 5045–5066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, 2024. a, b, c, d
Zemp, M., Frey, H., Gärtner-Roer, I., Nussbaumer, S. U., Hoelzle, M., Paul, F., Haeberli, W., Denzinger, F., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Anderson, B., Bajracharya, S., Baroni, C., Braun, L. N., Cáceres, B. E., Casassa, G., Cobos, G., Dávila, L. R., Delgado Granados, H., Demuth, M. N., Espizua, L., Fischer, A., Fujita, K., Gadek, B., Ghazanfar, A., Hagen, J. O., Holmlund, P., Karimi, N., Li, Z., Pelto, M., Pitte, P., Popovnin, V. V., Portocarrero, C. A., Prinz, R., Sangewar, C. V., Severskiy, I., Sigurđsson, O., Soruco, A., Usubaliev, R., and Vincent, C.: Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century, J. Glaciol., 61, 745–762, 2015. a
Zemp, M., Huss, M., Thibert, E., Eckert, N., McNabb, R., Huber, J., Barandun, M., Machguth, H., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gärtner-Roer, I., Thomson, L., Paul, F., Maussion, F., Kutuzov, S., and Cogley, J. G.: Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, Nature, 568, 382–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0, 2019. a
Short summary
We use regional observations of glacier area and volume change to inform glacier evolution modeling in the Ötztal and Stubai range (Austrian Alps) until 2100 in different climate scenarios. Glaciers in the region lost 23 % of their volume between 2006 and 2017. Under current warming trajectories, glacier loss in the region is expected to be near-total by 2075. We show that integrating regional calibration and validation data in glacier models is important to improve confidence in projections.
We use regional observations of glacier area and volume change to inform glacier evolution...
