Recent observations and glacier modeling point towards near-complete glacier loss in western Austria (Ötztal and Stubai mountain range) if 1.5&thinsp;°C is not met

Hartl, Lea; Schmitt, Patrick; Schuster, Lilian; Helfricht, Kay; Abermann, Jakob; Maussion, Fabien

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 3

Research article

|

01 Apr 2025

Research article |

| 01 Apr 2025

Recent observations and glacier modeling point towards near-complete glacier loss in western Austria (Ötztal and Stubai mountain range) if 1.5 °C is not met

Lea Hartl, Patrick Schmitt, Lilian Schuster, Kay Helfricht, Jakob Abermann, and Fabien Maussion

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025-supplement

Data sets

OGGM/oggm_projections_pitztal_oetztal_stubaital: v0.1 Fabien Maussion and Patrick Schmitt https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11072663

Glacier inventory Ötztal Alps 2017 [dataset] Kay Helfricht et al. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.965798

Glacier inventory Stubai Alps 2017/2018 [dataset] Kay Helfricht et al. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.965791

Model code and software

OGGM/oggm: v1.6.1 (v1.6.1) F. Maussion et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.8287580

Short summary

We use regional observations of glacier area and volume change to inform glacier evolution modeling in the Ötztal and Stubai range (Austrian Alps) until 2100 in different climate scenarios. Glaciers in the region lost 23 % of their volume between 2006 and 2017. Under current warming trajectories, glacier loss in the region is expected to be near-total by 2075. We show that integrating regional calibration and validation data in glacier models is important to improve confidence in projections.