Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2917-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2917-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jun 2024
Research article |
| 25 Jun 2024
| 25 Jun 2024
Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Carolyn Branecky Begeman
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Xylar S. Asay-Davis
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Darin Comeau
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Alice Barthel
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Stephen F. Price
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Jonathan D. Wolfe
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Related authors
Sanket Jantre, Matthew J. Hoffman, Nathan M. Urban, Trevor Hillebrand, Mauro Perego, Stephen Price, and John D. Jakeman
The Cryosphere, 18, 5207–5238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate potential sea-level rise from Antarctica's Lambert Glacier, once considered stable but now at risk due to projected ocean warming by 2100. Using statistical methods and limited supercomputer simulations, we calibrated our ice-sheet model using three observables. We find that, under high greenhouse gas emissions, glacier retreat could raise sea levels by 46–133 mm by 2300. This study highlights the need for better observations to reduce uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections.
Irena Vaňková, Xylar Asay-Davis, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, Darin Comeau, Alexander Hager, Matthew Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Jonathan Wolfe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2297, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the effect of subglacial discharge on basal melting for Antarctic Ice Shelves. We find that the results from previous studies of vertical ice fronts and two-dimensional ice tongues do not translate to the rotating ice-shelf framework. The melt rate dependence on discharge is stronger in the rotating framework. Further, there is a substantial melt-rate sensitivity to the location of the discharge along the grounding line relative to the directionality of the Coriolis force.
John D. Jakeman, Mauro Perego, D. Thomas Seidl, Tucker A. Hartland, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Stephen F. Price
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2209, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigated the computational benefits of using multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. Despite some models being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice flow fields, using multiple models reduced the error in the estimated statistics by over an order of magnitude when compared to an approach that only used a single accurate model.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, and Ian M. Howat
The Cryosphere, 16, 4679–4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea level in 2007–2100, using an ensemble of model simulations constrained by observations of glacier retreat and speedup. This is a significant fraction of the 40–140 mm from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet predicted by the recent ISMIP6 multi-model ensemble, suggesting that calibrating models against observed velocity changes could result in higher estimates of 21st century sea-level rise from Greenland.
Alexander O. Hager, Matthew J. Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Dustin M. Schroeder
The Cryosphere, 16, 3575–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presence of water beneath glaciers is a control on glacier speed and ocean-caused melting, yet it has been unclear whether sizable volumes of water can exist beneath Antarctic glaciers or how this water may flow along the glacier bed. We use computer simulations, supported by observations, to show that enough water exists at the base of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, to form "rivers" beneath the glacier. These rivers likely moderate glacier speed and may influence its rate of retreat.
Tong Zhang, Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, and Xylar Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3407-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3407-2020, 2020
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Dan Lu, Mary M. Forrester, Stephen Price, Jeremy Fyke, Andrew R. Bennett, Matthew J. Hoffman, Irina Tezaur, Charles S. Zender, and Miren Vizcaíno
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A robust validation of ice sheet models is presented using LIVVkit, version 2.1. It targets ice sheet and coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and operations that require high-performance computing and storage. We apply LIVVkit to a Greenland ice sheet simulation to show the degree to which it captures the surface mass balance. LIVVkit identifies a positive bias due to insufficient melting compared to observations that is focused largely around Greenland's southwest region.
William H. Lipscomb, Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Gunter R. Leguy, Andrew R. Bennett, Sarah L. Bradley, Katherine J. Evans, Jeremy G. Fyke, Joseph H. Kennedy, Mauro Perego, Douglas M. Ranken, William J. Sacks, Andrew G. Salinger, Lauren J. Vargo, and Patrick H. Worley
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) version 2.1. CISM solves equations for ice flow, heat conduction, surface melting, and other processes such as basal sliding and iceberg calving. It can be used for ice-sheet-only simulations or as the ice sheet component of the Community Earth System Model. Model solutions have been verified for standard test problems. CISM can efficiently simulate the whole Greenland ice sheet, with results that are broadly consistent with observations.
Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, William H. Lipscomb, Tong Zhang, Douglas Jacobsen, Irina Tezaur, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond Tuminaro, and Luca Bertagna
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3747–3780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) is a new variable-resolution land ice model that uses unstructured grids on a plane or sphere. MALI is built for Earth system modeling on high-performance computing platforms using existing software libraries. MALI simulates the evolution of ice thickness, velocity, and temperature, and it includes schemes for simulating iceberg calving and the flow of water beneath ice sheets and its effect on ice sliding. The model is demonstrated for the Antarctic ice sheet.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
M. P. Lüthi, C. Ryser, L. C. Andrews, G. A. Catania, M. Funk, R. L. Hawley, M. J. Hoffman, and T. A. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 9, 245–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-245-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-245-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the thermal structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet with a heat flow model. New borehole measurements indicate that more heat is stored within the ice than would be expected from heat diffusion alone. We conclude that temperate paleo-firn and cyro-hydrologic warming are essential processes that explain the measurements.
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
B. F. Morriss, R. L. Hawley, J. W. Chipman, L. C. Andrews, G. A. Catania, M. J. Hoffman, M. P. Lüthi, and T. A. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 7, 1869–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1869-2013, 2013
Sanket Jantre, Matthew J. Hoffman, Nathan M. Urban, Trevor Hillebrand, Mauro Perego, Stephen Price, and John D. Jakeman
The Cryosphere, 18, 5207–5238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate potential sea-level rise from Antarctica's Lambert Glacier, once considered stable but now at risk due to projected ocean warming by 2100. Using statistical methods and limited supercomputer simulations, we calibrated our ice-sheet model using three observables. We find that, under high greenhouse gas emissions, glacier retreat could raise sea levels by 46–133 mm by 2300. This study highlights the need for better observations to reduce uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Katherine Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golez, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautum Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordonez
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-149, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer biases reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea-ice extent in the North Atlantic, a small strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and improvements in many atmospheric climatological variables.
Irena Vaňková, Xylar Asay-Davis, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, Darin Comeau, Alexander Hager, Matthew Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Jonathan Wolfe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2297, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the effect of subglacial discharge on basal melting for Antarctic Ice Shelves. We find that the results from previous studies of vertical ice fronts and two-dimensional ice tongues do not translate to the rotating ice-shelf framework. The melt rate dependence on discharge is stronger in the rotating framework. Further, there is a substantial melt-rate sensitivity to the location of the discharge along the grounding line relative to the directionality of the Coriolis force.
John D. Jakeman, Mauro Perego, D. Thomas Seidl, Tucker A. Hartland, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Stephen F. Price
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2209, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigated the computational benefits of using multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. Despite some models being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice flow fields, using multiple models reduced the error in the estimated statistics by over an order of magnitude when compared to an approach that only used a single accurate model.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Luke P. Van Roekel, Mark A. Taylor, Wuyin Lin, Benjamin R. Hillman, Paul A. Ullrich, Andrew M. Bradley, Oksana Guba, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Tian Zhou, Kai Zhang, Xue Zheng, Yunyan Zhang, Meng Zhang, Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Cheng Tao, Balwinder Singh, Alan M. Rhoades, Yi Qin, Hong-Yi Li, Yan Feng, Yuying Zhang, Chengzhu Zhang, Charles S. Zender, Shaocheng Xie, Erika L. Roesler, Andrew F. Roberts, Azamat Mametjanov, Mathew E. Maltrud, Noel D. Keen, Robert L. Jacob, Christiane Jablonowski, Owen K. Hughes, Ryan M. Forsyth, Alan V. Di Vittorio, Peter M. Caldwell, Gautam Bisht, Renata B. McCoy, L. Ruby Leung, and David C. Bader
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3953–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3953-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3953-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution simulations are superior to low-resolution ones in capturing regional climate changes and climate extremes. However, uniformly reducing the grid size of a global Earth system model is too computationally expensive. We provide an overview of the fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) of E3SMv2 and document a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM at an economic cost. The key to this success is our innovative hybrid time step method.
Hyein Jeong, Adrian K. Turner, Andrew F. Roberts, Milena Veneziani, Stephen F. Price, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Luke P. Van Roekel, Wuyin Lin, Peter M. Caldwell, Hyo-Seok Park, Jonathan D. Wolfe, and Azamat Mametjanov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2681–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We find that E3SM-HR reproduces the main features of the Antarctic coastal polynyas. Despite the high amount of coastal sea ice production, the densest water masses are formed in the open ocean. Biases related to the lack of dense water formation are associated with overly strong atmospheric polar easterlies. Our results indicate that the large-scale polar atmospheric circulation must be accurately simulated in models to properly reproduce Antarctic dense water formation.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Chengzhu Zhang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Ryan Forsyth, Tom Vo, Shaocheng Xie, Zeshawn Shaheen, Gerald L. Potter, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Charles S. Zender, Wuyin Lin, Chih-Chieh Chen, Chris R. Terai, Salil Mahajan, Tian Zhou, Karthik Balaguru, Qi Tang, Cheng Tao, Yuying Zhang, Todd Emmenegger, Susannah Burrows, and Paul A. Ullrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9031–9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system model (ESM) developers run automated analysis tools on data from candidate models to inform model development. This paper introduces a new Python package, E3SM Diags, that has been developed to support ESM development and use routinely in the development of DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model. This tool covers a set of essential diagnostics to evaluate the mean physical climate from simulations, as well as several process-oriented and phenomenon-based evaluation diagnostics.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, and Ian M. Howat
The Cryosphere, 16, 4679–4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea level in 2007–2100, using an ensemble of model simulations constrained by observations of glacier retreat and speedup. This is a significant fraction of the 40–140 mm from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet predicted by the recent ISMIP6 multi-model ensemble, suggesting that calibrating models against observed velocity changes could result in higher estimates of 21st century sea-level rise from Greenland.
Alexander O. Hager, Matthew J. Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Dustin M. Schroeder
The Cryosphere, 16, 3575–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presence of water beneath glaciers is a control on glacier speed and ocean-caused melting, yet it has been unclear whether sizable volumes of water can exist beneath Antarctic glaciers or how this water may flow along the glacier bed. We use computer simulations, supported by observations, to show that enough water exists at the base of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, to form "rivers" beneath the glacier. These rivers likely moderate glacier speed and may influence its rate of retreat.
Adrian K. Turner, William H. Lipscomb, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Douglas W. Jacobsen, Nicole Jeffery, Darren Engwirda, Todd D. Ringler, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3721–3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the dynamical core of the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a mesh consisting of a Voronoi tessellation with polygonal cells. Such a mesh allows variable mesh resolution in different parts of the domain and the focusing of computational resources in regions of interest. We describe the velocity solver and tracer transport schemes used and examine errors generated by the model in both idealized and realistic test cases and examine the computational efficiency of the model.
Milena Veneziani, Wieslaw Maslowski, Younjoo J. Lee, Gennaro D'Angelo, Robert Osinski, Mark R. Petersen, Wilbert Weijer, Anthony P. Craig, John D. Wolfe, Darin Comeau, and Adrian K. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3133–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3133-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present an Earth system model (ESM) simulation, E3SM-Arctic-OSI, with a refined grid to better resolve the Arctic ocean and sea-ice system and low spatial resolution elsewhere. The configuration satisfactorily represents many aspects of the Arctic system and its interactions with the sub-Arctic, while keeping computational costs at a fraction of those necessary for global high-resolution ESMs. E3SM-Arctic can thus be an efficient tool to study Arctic processes on climate-relevant timescales.
Carolyn Branecky Begeman, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Luke Van Roekel
The Cryosphere, 16, 277–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-277-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses ocean modeling at ultra-high resolution to study the small-scale ocean mixing that controls ice-shelf melting. It offers some insights into the relationship between ice-shelf melting and ocean temperature far from the ice base, which may help us project how fast ice will melt when ocean waters entering the cavity warm. This study adds to a growing body of research that indicates we need a more sophisticated treatment of ice-shelf melting in coarse-resolution ocean models.
Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Xylar S. Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present numerical features of the Community Ice Sheet Model in representing ocean termini glaciers. Using idealized test cases, we show that applying melt in a partly grounded cell is beneficial, in contrast to recent studies. We confirm that parameterizing partly grounded cells yields accurate ice sheet representation at a grid resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km), allowing ice sheet simulations at a continental scale. The choice of basal friction law also influences the ice flow.
William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
Qiang Sun, Christopher M. Little, Alice M. Barthel, and Laurie Padman
Ocean Sci., 17, 131–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-131-2021, 2021
Tong Zhang, Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, and Xylar Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3407-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3407-2020, 2020
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Tore Hattermann, Fiammetta Straneo, Hélène Seroussi, Christopher M. Little, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To predict the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise, we need to use ice sheet models. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for AR6 (ISMIP6) builds an ensemble of ice sheet projections constrained by atmosphere and ocean projections from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In this work, we present and assess a method to derive ice shelf basal melting in ISMIP6 from the CMIP6 ocean outputs, and we give examples of projected melt rates.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Adam M. Schneider, Charles S. Zender, and Stephen F. Price
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-247, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We enhance the Energy Exascale Earth System Model's land
component (ELM) to better represent multi-year snow (firn) on ice sheets. Our
developments reveal ELM deficiencies regarding firn density, a fundamental
property in glaciology. To improve firn density profiles, we fine tune
ELM's snowpack parameters using statistical modeling. Our findings demonstrate
how ELM can simulate both seasonal snow and firn on ice sheets and advance a
broader effort to better predict sea level rise.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Alice Barthel, Cécile Agosta, Christopher M. Little, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Helene Seroussi, Fiammetta Straneo, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of six models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Sarah U. Neuhaus, Slawek M. Tulaczyk, and Carolyn Branecky Begeman
The Cryosphere, 13, 1785–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1785-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1785-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Relatively few studies have been carried out on icebergs inside fjords, despite the fact that the majority of recent sea level rise has resulted from glaciers terminating in fjords. We examine the size and spatial distribution of icebergs in Columbia Fjord, Alaska, over a period of 8 months to determine their influence on fjord dynamics.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Dan Lu, Mary M. Forrester, Stephen Price, Jeremy Fyke, Andrew R. Bennett, Matthew J. Hoffman, Irina Tezaur, Charles S. Zender, and Miren Vizcaíno
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A robust validation of ice sheet models is presented using LIVVkit, version 2.1. It targets ice sheet and coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and operations that require high-performance computing and storage. We apply LIVVkit to a Greenland ice sheet simulation to show the degree to which it captures the surface mass balance. LIVVkit identifies a positive bias due to insufficient melting compared to observations that is focused largely around Greenland's southwest region.
William H. Lipscomb, Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Gunter R. Leguy, Andrew R. Bennett, Sarah L. Bradley, Katherine J. Evans, Jeremy G. Fyke, Joseph H. Kennedy, Mauro Perego, Douglas M. Ranken, William J. Sacks, Andrew G. Salinger, Lauren J. Vargo, and Patrick H. Worley
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) version 2.1. CISM solves equations for ice flow, heat conduction, surface melting, and other processes such as basal sliding and iceberg calving. It can be used for ice-sheet-only simulations or as the ice sheet component of the Community Earth System Model. Model solutions have been verified for standard test problems. CISM can efficiently simulate the whole Greenland ice sheet, with results that are broadly consistent with observations.
Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, William H. Lipscomb, Tong Zhang, Douglas Jacobsen, Irina Tezaur, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond Tuminaro, and Luca Bertagna
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3747–3780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) is a new variable-resolution land ice model that uses unstructured grids on a plane or sphere. MALI is built for Earth system modeling on high-performance computing platforms using existing software libraries. MALI simulates the evolution of ice thickness, velocity, and temperature, and it includes schemes for simulating iceberg calving and the flow of water beneath ice sheets and its effect on ice sliding. The model is demonstrated for the Antarctic ice sheet.
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
Kai Zhang, Philip J. Rasch, Mark A. Taylor, Hui Wan, Ruby Leung, Po-Lun Ma, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Jon Wolfe, Wuyin Lin, Balwinder Singh, Susannah Burrows, Jin-Ho Yoon, Hailong Wang, Yun Qian, Qi Tang, Peter Caldwell, and Shaocheng Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1971–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1971-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The conservation of total water is an important numerical feature for global Earth system models. Even small conservation problems in the water budget can lead to systematic errors in century-long simulations for sea level rise projection. This study quantifies and reduces various sources of water conservation error in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model.
Tong Zhang, Stephen Price, Lili Ju, Wei Leng, Julien Brondex, Gaël Durand, and Olivier Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 11, 179–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-179-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-179-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Stokes-flow models are the highest-fidelity representation of the equations governing ice sheet flow and they are often treated as the standard against which other models are compared in model benchmark activities. We compare two different Stokes models applied to a canonical set of idealized marine ice sheet experiments and demonstrate that the solutions converge with increasing grid resolution. This provides confidence in the use of Stokes models for generating test case solution metrics.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
S. de la Peña, I. M. Howat, P. W. Nienow, M. R. van den Broeke, E. Mosley-Thompson, S. F. Price, D. Mair, B. Noël, and A. J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 9, 1203–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an assessment of changes in the near-surface structure of the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by an increase of melt at higher elevations in the last decade, especially during the unusually warm years of 2010 and 2012. The increase in melt and firn densification complicate the interpretation of changes in the ice volume, and the observed increase in firn ice content may reduce the important meltwater buffering capacity of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
I. K. Tezaur, M. Perego, A. G. Salinger, R. S. Tuminaro, and S. F. Price
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1197–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this manuscript, we discuss the development and validation of a new momentum balance solver for modeling the flow of glaciers and ice sheets based on the 1st-order Stokes equations. We demonstrate the numerical convergence of our solver (with respect to computational mesh spacing), its flexibility (with respect to both the choice of mesh and finite element type), and its computational performance (robustness and scalability when applied to both idealized and realistic ice sheet simulations).
M. P. Lüthi, C. Ryser, L. C. Andrews, G. A. Catania, M. Funk, R. L. Hawley, M. J. Hoffman, and T. A. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 9, 245–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-245-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-245-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the thermal structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet with a heat flow model. New borehole measurements indicate that more heat is stored within the ice than would be expected from heat diffusion alone. We conclude that temperate paleo-firn and cyro-hydrologic warming are essential processes that explain the measurements.
G. R. Leguy, X. S. Asay-Davis, and W. H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 8, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
B. F. Morriss, R. L. Hawley, J. W. Chipman, L. C. Andrews, G. A. Catania, M. J. Hoffman, M. P. Lüthi, and T. A. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 7, 1869–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1869-2013, 2013
W. Leng, L. Ju, M. Gunzburger, and S. Price
The Cryosphere, 7, 19–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-19-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-19-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Other | Subject: Ocean Interactions
Ice mélange melt changes observed water column stratification at a tidewater glacier in Greenland
Fjord circulation induced by melting icebergs
The macronutrient and micronutrient (iron and manganese) signature of icebergs
Modeling seasonal-to-decadal ocean–cryosphere interactions along the Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica
Impact of icebergs on the seasonal submarine melt of Sermeq Kujalleq
Reversal of ocean gyres near ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea caused by the interaction of sea ice and wind
Impact of freshwater runoff from the southwest Greenland Ice Sheet on fjord productivity since the late 19th century
Modeling intensive ocean–cryosphere interactions in Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica
Drivers for Atlantic-origin waters abutting Greenland
Impact of West Antarctic ice shelf melting on Southern Ocean hydrography
Ice island thinning: rates and model calibration with in situ observations from Baffin Bay, Nunavut
Quantifying iceberg calving fluxes with underwater noise
Modeling the effect of Ross Ice Shelf melting on the Southern Ocean in quasi-equilibrium
Nicole Abib, David A. Sutherland, Rachel Peterson, Ginny Catania, Jonathan D. Nash, Emily L. Shroyer, Leigh A. Stearns, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 18, 4817–4829, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The melting of ice mélange, or dense packs of icebergs and sea ice in glacial fjords, can influence the water column by releasing cold fresh water deep under the ocean surface. However, direct observations of this process have remained elusive. We use measurements of ocean temperature, salinity, and velocity bookending an episodic ice mélange event to show that this meltwater input changes the density profile of a glacial fjord and has implications for understanding tidewater glacier change.
Kenneth G. Hughes
The Cryosphere, 18, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A mathematical and conceptual model of how the melting of hundreds of icebergs generates currents within a fjord.
Jana Krause, Dustin Carroll, Juan Höfer, Jeremy Donaire, Eric Pieter Achterberg, Emilio Alarcón, Te Liu, Lorenz Meire, Kechen Zhu, and Mark James Hopwood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2991, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Icebergs are a mechanism via which the cryosphere and ocean interact. Here we analyzed ice samples from both Arctic and Antarctic polar regions to assess the variability in the composition of calved ice. Our results show that low concentrations of nitrate and phosphate in ice are primarily atmospheric in origin, whereas sediments impart a low concentration of silica and modest concentrations of trace metals, especially iron and manganese.
Kazuya Kusahara, Daisuke Hirano, Masakazu Fujii, Alexander D. Fraser, Takeshi Tamura, Kohei Mizobata, Guy D. Williams, and Shigeru Aoki
The Cryosphere, 18, 43–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-43-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the Totten and Moscow University ice shelves, East Antarctica. We used an ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model to better understand regional interactions between ocean, sea ice, and ice shelf. We found that a combination of warm ocean water and local sea ice production influences the regional ice shelf basal melting. Furthermore, the model reproduced the summertime undercurrent on the upper continental slope, regulating ocean heat transport onto the continental shelf.
Karita Kajanto, Fiammetta Straneo, and Kerim Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 17, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-371-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Many outlet glaciers in Greenland are connected to the ocean by narrow glacial fjords, where warm water melts the glacier from underneath. Ocean water is modified in these fjords through processes that are poorly understood, particularly iceberg melt. We use a model to show how iceberg melt cools down Ilulissat Icefjord and causes circulation to take place deeper in the fjord than if there were no icebergs. This causes the glacier to melt less and from a smaller area than without icebergs.
Yixi Zheng, David P. Stevens, Karen J. Heywood, Benjamin G. M. Webber, and Bastien Y. Queste
The Cryosphere, 16, 3005–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
New observations reveal the Thwaites gyre in a habitually ice-covered region in the Amundsen Sea for the first time. This gyre rotates anticlockwise, despite the wind here favouring clockwise gyres like the Pine Island Bay gyre – the only other ocean gyre reported in the Amundsen Sea. We use an ocean model to suggest that sea ice alters the wind stress felt by the ocean and hence determines the gyre direction and strength. These processes may also be applied to other gyres in polar oceans.
Mimmi Oksman, Anna Bang Kvorning, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Kristian Kjellerup Kjeldsen, Kenneth David Mankoff, William Colgan, Thorbjørn Joest Andersen, Niels Nørgaard-Pedersen, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Naja Mikkelsen, and Sofia Ribeiro
The Cryosphere, 16, 2471–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the questions facing the cryosphere community today is how increasing runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet impacts marine ecosystems. To address this, long-term data are essential. Here, we present multi-site records of fjord productivity for SW Greenland back to the 19th century. We show a link between historical freshwater runoff and productivity, which is strongest in the inner fjord – influenced by marine-terminating glaciers – where productivity has increased since the late 1990s.
Kazuya Kusahara, Daisuke Hirano, Masakazu Fujii, Alexander D. Fraser, and Takeshi Tamura
The Cryosphere, 15, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1697-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1697-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used an ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model with a 2–3 km horizontal resolution to investigate ocean–ice shelf/glacier interactions in Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica. The numerical model reproduced the observed warm water intrusion along the deep trough in the bay. We examined in detail (1) water mass changes between the upper continental slope and shelf regions and (2) the fast-ice role in the ocean conditions and basal melting at the Shirase Glacier tongue.
Laura C. Gillard, Xianmin Hu, Paul G. Myers, Mads Hvid Ribergaard, and Craig M. Lee
The Cryosphere, 14, 2729–2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2729-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2729-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland's glaciers in contact with the ocean drain the majority of the ice sheet (GrIS). Deep troughs along the shelf branch into fjords, connecting glaciers with ocean waters. The heat from the ocean entering deep troughs may then accelerate the mass loss. Onshore heat transport through troughs was investigated with an ocean model. Processes that drive the delivery of ocean heat respond differently by region to increasing GrIS meltwater, mean circulation, and filtering out of storms.
Yoshihiro Nakayama, Ralph Timmermann, and Hartmut H. Hellmer
The Cryosphere, 14, 2205–2216, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2205-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2205-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies have shown accelerations of West Antarctic glaciers, implying that basal melt rates of these glaciers were small and increased in the middle of the 20th century. We conduct coupled sea ice–ice shelf–ocean simulations with different levels of ice shelf melting from West Antarctic glaciers. This study reveals how far and how quickly glacial meltwater from ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas propagates downstream into the Ross Sea and along the East Antarctic coast.
Anna J. Crawford, Derek Mueller, Gregory Crocker, Laurent Mingo, Luc Desjardins, Dany Dumont, and Marcel Babin
The Cryosphere, 14, 1067–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1067-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large tabular icebergs (
ice islands) are symbols of climate change as well as marine hazards. We measured thickness along radar transects over two visits to a 14 km2 Arctic ice island and left automated equipment to monitor surface ablation and thickness over 1 year. We assess variation in thinning rates and calibrate an ice–ocean melt model with field data. Our work contributes to understanding ice island deterioration via logistically complex fieldwork in a remote environment.
Oskar Glowacki and Grant B. Deane
The Cryosphere, 14, 1025–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1025-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1025-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers are shrinking rapidly in response to the warming climate and thus provide large quantities of fresh water to the ocean system. However, accurate estimates of ice loss at the ice–ocean boundary are difficult to obtain. Here we demonstrate that ice mass loss from iceberg break-off (calving) can be measured by analyzing the underwater noise generated as icebergs impact the sea surface.
Xiying Liu
The Cryosphere, 12, 3033–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical experiments have been performed to study the effect of basal melting of the Ross Ice Shelf on the ocean southward of 35° S. It is shown that the melt rate averaged over the entire Ross Ice Shelf is 0.253 m year-1, which is associated with a freshwater flux of 3150 m3 s-1. The extra freshwater flux decreases the salinity in the Southern Ocean substantially, leading to anomalies in circulation, sea ice, and heat transport in certain parts of the ocean.
Cited articles
Adcroft, A. and Campin, J.-M.: Rescaled height coordinates for accurate representation of free-surface flows in ocean circulation models, Ocean Model., 7, 269–284, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.09.003, 2004. a
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L., and Siegfried, M. R.: Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Geosci., 13, 616–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0616-z, 2020. a, b, c, d
Asay-Davis, X.: MPAS-Dev/MPAS-Analysis: v1.4.0 (1.4.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5109439, 2021. a
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Bisht, G., Riley, W. J., Hammond, G. E., and Lorenzetti, D. M.: Development and evaluation of a variably saturated flow model in the global E3SM Land Model (ELM) version 1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4085–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4085-2018, 2018. a
Bronselaer, B., Winton, M., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J., Rodgers, K. B., Sergienko, O. V., Stouffer, R. J., and Russell, J. L.: Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater, Nature, 564, 53–58, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0712-z, 2018. a, b
Bull, C. Y. S., Jenkins, A., Jourdain, N. C., Vǎková, I., Holland, P. R., Mathiot, P., Hausmann, U., and Sallée, J.: Remote Control of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Melt Rates by the Antarctic Slope Current, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC016550, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016550, 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Burrows, S. M., Maltrud, M., Yang, X., Zhu, Q., Jeffery, N., Shi, X., Ricciuto, D., Wang, S., Bisht, G., Tang, J., Wolfe, J., Harrop, B. E., Singh, B., Brent, L., Baldwin, S., Zhou, T., Cameron-Smith, P., Keen, N., Collier, N., Xu, M., Hunke, E. C., Elliott, S. M., Turner, A. K., Li, H., Wang, H., Golaz, J. C., Bond-Lamberty, B., Hoffman, F. M., Riley, W. J., Thornton, P. E., Calvin, K., and Leung, L. R.: The DOE E3SM v1.1 Biogeochemistry Configuration: Description and Simulated Ecosystem-Climate Responses to Historical Changes in Forcing, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, 1–59, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001766, 2020. a
Church, J., Clark, P., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M., Milne, G., Nerem, R., Nunn, P., Payne, A., Pfeffer, W., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A.: Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1137–1216, 2013. a
Comeau, D.: CGM-DIB simulation data, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/E3SM?project=E3SM&activeFacets =% 7B% 22campaign% 22% 3A% 22Cryosphere-v1% 22% 2C% 22experiment% 22% 3A% 22G-IAF-DIB-ISMF% 22% 7D (last access: 9 March 2024), 2021a. a
Comeau, D.: CGM-VIB simulation data, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/E3SM?project=E3SM&activeFacets =% % 22campaign% 22% 3A% 22Cryosphere-v1% 22% 2C% 22experiment% 22% 3A% 22G-IAF-DIB-ISMF-3dGM% 22% 7D (last access: 9 March 2024), 2021b. a
Comeau, D., Asay-Davis, X. S., Begeman, C. B., Hoffman, M. J., Lin, W., Petersen, M. R., Price, S. F., Roberts, A. F., Van Roekel, L. P., Veneziani, M., Wolfe, J. D., Fyke, J. G., Ringler, T. D., and Turner, A. K.: The DOE E3SM v1.2 Cryosphere Configuration: Description and Simulated Antarctic Ice-Shelf Basal Melting, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002468, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002468, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p
Daae, K., Hattermann, T., Darelius, E., Mueller, R. D., Naughten, K. A., Timmermann, R., and Hellmer, H. H.: Necessary Conditions for Warm Inflow Toward the Filchner Ice Shelf, Weddell Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089237, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089237, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p
Danabasoglu, G. and Marshall, J.: Effects of vertical variations of thickness diffusivity in an ocean general circulation model, Ocean Model., 18, 122–141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.03.006, 2007. a
Dawson, H. R. S., Morrison, A. K., England, M. H., and Tamsitt, V.: Pathways and Timescales of Connectivity Around the Antarctic Continental Shelf, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 128, e2022JC018962, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018962, 2023. a, b
Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G.: Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12567, 2013. a
Dinniman, M. S., Asay-Davis, X. S., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., and Timmermann, R.: Modeling ice shelf/ocean interaction in Antarctica: A review, Oceanography, 29, 144–153, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.106, 2016. a
Dorschel, B., Hehemann, L., Viquerat, S., Warnke, F., Dreutter, S., Schulze Tenberge, Y., Accettella, D., An, L., Barrios, F., Bazhenova, E. A., Black, J., Bohoyo, F., Davey, C., de Santis, L., Escutia Dotti, C., Fremand, A. C., Fretwell, P. T., Gales, J. A., Gao, J., Gasperini, L., Greenbaum, J. S., Henderson Jencks, J., Hogan, K. A., Hong, J. K., Jakobsson, M., Jensen, L., Kool, J., Larin, S., Larter, R. D., Leitchenkov, G. L., Loubrieu, B., Mackay, K., Mayer, L., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Navidad, F., Nitsche, F.-O., Nogi, Y., Pertuisot, C., Post, A. L., Pritchard, H. D., Purser, A., Rebesco, M., Rignot, E., Roberts, J. L., Rovere, M., Ryzhov, I., Sauli, C., Schmitt, T., Silvano, A., Smith, J. E., Snaith, H., Tate, A. J., Tinto, K., Vandenbossche, P., Weatherall, P., Wintersteller, P., Yang, C., Zhang, T., and Arndt, J. E.: The International Bathymetric Chart of the Southern Ocean version 2 (IBCSO v2), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.937574, 2022. a
E3SM: Running E3SM, E3SM [data set], https://e3sm.org/model/running-e3sm (last access: 28 May 2024), 2024. a
E3SM Project: Energy Exascale Earth System Model v1.2.1, E3SM Project, DOE [code], https://doi.org/10.11578/E3SM/dc.20210309.1, 2020. a
Fogwill, C. J., Phipps, S. J., Turney, C. S. M., and Golledge, N. R.: Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input, Earths Future, 3, 317–329, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000306, 2015. a, b
Gent, P. R. and Mcwilliams, J. C.: Isopycnal Mixing in Ocean Circulation Models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150–155, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a
Gille, S. T., McKee, D. C., and Martinson, D. G.: Temporal changes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current: Implications for the Antarctic continental shelves, Oceanography, 29, 96–105, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.102, 2016. a
Golaz, J. C., Caldwell, P. M., Van Roekel, L. P., Petersen, M. R., Tang, Q., Wolfe, J. D., Abeshu, G., Anantharaj, V., Asay-Davis, X. S., Bader, D. C., Baldwin, S. A., Bisht, G., Bogenschutz, P. A., Branstetter, M., Brunke, M. A., Brus, S. R., Burrows, S. M., Cameron-Smith, P. J., Donahue, A. S., Deakin, M., Easter, R. C., Evans, K. J., Feng, Y., Flanner, M., Foucar, J. G., Fyke, J. G., Griffin, B. M., Hannay, C., Harrop, B. E., Hoffman, M. J., Hunke, E. C., Jacob, R. L., Jacobsen, D. W., Jeffery, N., Jones, P. W., Keen, N. D., Klein, S. A., Larson, V. E., Leung, L. R., Li, H. Y., Lin, W., Lipscomb, W. H., Ma, P. L., Mahajan, S., Maltrud, M. E., Mametjanov, A., McClean, J. L., McCoy, R. B., Neale, R. B., Price, S. F., Qian, Y., Rasch, P. J., Reeves Eyre, J. E., Riley, W. J., Ringler, T. D., Roberts, A. F., Roesler, E. L., Salinger, A. G., Shaheen, Z., Shi, X., Singh, B., Tang, J., Taylor, M. A., Thornton, P. E., Turner, A. K., Veneziani, M., Wan, H., Wang, H., Wang, S., Williams, D. N., Wolfram, P. J., Worley, P. H., Xie, S., Yang, Y., Yoon, J. H., Zelinka, M. D., Zender, C. S., Zeng, X., Zhang, C., Zhang, K., Zhang, Y., Zheng, X., Zhou, T., and Zhu, Q.: The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Overview and Evaluation at Standard Resolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2089–2129, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001603, 2019. a, b, c
Gudmundsson, G. H.: Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets, The Cryosphere, 7, 647–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-647-2013, 2013. a
Gudmundsson, G. H., Paolo, F. S., Adusumilli, S., and Fricker, H. A.: Instantaneous Antarctic ice sheet mass loss driven by thinning ice shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13903–13909, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085027, 2019. a
Hellmer, H. and Olbers, D.: A two-dimensional model for the thermohaline circulation under an ice shelf, Antarct. Sci., 1, 325–336, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102089000490, 1989. a
Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., Timmermann, R., Determann, J., and Rae, J.: Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current., Nature, 485, 225–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11064, 2012. a, b, c, d
Hoffman, M. J., Perego, M., Price, S. F., Lipscomb, W. H., Zhang, T., Jacobsen, D., Tezaur, I., Salinger, A. G., Tuminaro, R., and Bertagna, L.: MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI): a variable-resolution ice sheet model for Earth system modeling using Voronoi grids, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3747–3780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, 2018. a, b
Holland, D. M. and Jenkins, A.: Modeling Thermodynamic Ice–Ocean Interactions at the Base of an Ice Shelf, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 1787–1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<1787:MTIOIA>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Hunke, E. C. and Dukowicz, J. K.: An Elastic–Viscous–Plastic Model for Sea Ice Dynamics, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1849–1867, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1849:AEVPMF>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Jacobs, S., Helmer, H., Doake, C. S. M., Jenkins, A., and Frolich, R. M.: Melting of ice shelves and the mass balance of Antarctica, J. Glaciol., 38, 375–387, https://doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000002252, 1992. a
Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S., Steig, E. J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Smith, J., and Heywood, K. J.: Decadal ocean forcing and Antarctic Ice Sheet response: Lessons from the Amundsen Sea, Oceanography, 29, 106–117, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.103, 2016. a
Jeong, H., Asay-Davis, X. S., Turner, A. K., Comeau, D. S., Price, S. F., Abernathey, R. P., Veneziani, M., Petersen, M. R., Hoffman, M. J., Mazloff, M. R., and Ringler, T. D.: Impacts of ice-shelf melting on water mass transformation in the Southern Ocean from E3SM simulations, J. Climate, 33, 5787–5808, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0683.1, 2020. a, b
Joughin, I., Alley, R., and Holland, D.: Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing, Science, 338, 1172–1176, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1226481, 2012. a
Jourdain, N. C., Asay-Davis, X., Hattermann, T., Straneo, F., Seroussi, H., Little, C. M., and Nowicki, S.: A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections, The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020. a
Kerr, R., Dotto, T. S., Mata, M. M., and Hellmer, H. H.: Three decades of deep water mass investigation in the Weddell Sea (1984–2014): Temporal variability and changes, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 149, 70–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2017.12.002, 2018. a
Kusahara, K. and Hasumi, H.: Modeling Antarctic Ice Shelf Responses to Future Climate Changes and Impacts on the Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 2454–2475, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20166, 2013. a
Large, W. G. and Yeager, S. G.: The global climatology of an interannually varying air–sea flux data set, Clim. Dynam., 33, 341–364, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3, 2008. a, b
Lauber, J., Hattermann, T., de Steur, L., Darelius, E., Auger, M., Nøst, O. A., and Moholdt, G.: Warming beneath an East Antarctic Ice Shelf Due to Increased Subpolar Westerlies and Reduced Sea Ice, Nat. Geosci., 16, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01273-5, 2023. a
Leung, L. R., Bader, D. C., Taylor, M. A., and McCoy, R. B.: An Introduction to the E3SM Special Collection: Goals, Science Drivers, Development, and Analysis, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001821, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001821, 2020. a, b
Li, H. Y., Leung, L. R., Getirana, A., Huang, M., Wu, H., Xu, Y., Guo, J., and Voisin, N.: Evaluating global streamflow simulations by a physically based routing model coupled with the community land model, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 948–971, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0079.1, 2015. a
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova, O. K., Boyer, T. P., Zweng, M. M., Garcia, H. E., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Weathers, K. W., Paver, C. R., and Smolyar, I. V.: World Ocean Atlas 2018, Volume 1: Temperature, Tech. Rep. Atlas NESDIS 81, NOAA, https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/WOA18/DOC/woa18_vol1.pdf (last access: 28 May 2024), 2019. a
Marshall, J. and Radko, T.: Residual-Mean Solutions for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Its Associated Overturning Circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 2341–2354, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2003)033<2341:RSFTAC>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Mathiot, P. and Jourdain, N. C.: Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario, Ocean Sci., 19, 1595–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023, 2023. a, b, c
Matsuoka, K., Skoglund, A., and Roth, G.: Quantarctica, Norwegian Polar Institute [data set], https://doi.org/10.21334/npolar.2018.8516e961, 2018. a
Moorman, R., Morrison, A. K., and Hogg, A. M. C.: Thermal Responses to Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt in an Eddy-Rich Global Ocean–Sea Ice Model, J. Climate, 33, 6599–6620, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0846.1, 2020. a, b
Nakayama, Y., Timmermann, R., Rodehacke, C. B., Schröder, M., and Hellmer, H. H.: Modeling the spreading of glacial meltwater from the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7942–7949, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061600, 2014. a, b, c
Nakayama, Y., Timmermann, R., and H. Hellmer, H.: Impact of West Antarctic ice shelf melting on Southern Ocean hydrography, The Cryosphere, 14, 2205–2216, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2205-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Naughten, K. A., Meissner, K. J., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., England, M. H., Timmermann, R., and Hellmer, H. H.: Future Projections of Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting Based on CMIP5 Scenarios, J. Climate, 31, 5243–5261, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0854.1, 2018. a, b, c
Naughten, K. A., De Rydt, J., Rosier, S. H. R., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., and Ridley, J. K.: Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change, Nat. Commun., 12, 1991, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0, 2021. a
Nicholls, K. W., Østerhus, S., Makinson, K., Gammelsrød, T., and Fahrbach, E.: Ice-ocean processes over the continental shelf of the Southern Weddell Sea, Antarctica: A review, Rev. Geophys., 47, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000250, 2009. a
Pauling, A. G., Bitz, C. M., Smith, I. J., and Langhorne, P. J.: The Response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice to Freshwater from Ice Shelves in an Earth System Model, J. Climate, 29, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0501.1, 2016. a
Pauling, A. G., Smith, I. J., Langhorne, P. J., and Bitz, C. M.: Time-Dependent Freshwater Input From Ice Shelves: Impacts on Antarctic Sea Ice and the Southern Ocean in an Earth System Model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10454–10461, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075017, 2017. a
Petersen, M. R., Jacobsen, D. W., Ringler, T. D., Hecht, M. W., and Maltrud, M. E.: Evaluation of the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian vertical coordinate method in the MPAS-Ocean model, Ocean Model., 86, 93–113, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.12.004, 2015. a
Petersen, M. R., Asay-Davis, X. S., Berres, A. S., Chen, Q., Feige, N., Hoffman, M. J., Jacobsen, D. W., Jones, P. W., Maltrud, M. E., Price, S. F., Ringler, T. D., Streletz, G. J., Turner, A. K., Van Roekel, L. P., Veneziani, M., Wolfe, J. D., Wolfram, P. J., and Woodring, J. L.: An Evaluation of the Ocean and Sea Ice Climate of E3SM Using MPAS and Interannual CORE-II Forcing, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 1438–1458, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001373, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Phipps, S. J., Fogwill, C. J., and Turney, C. S. M.: Impacts of marine instability across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on Southern Ocean dynamics, The Cryosphere, 10, 2317–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2317-2016, 2016. a, b
Rasch, P. J., Xie, S., Ma, P., Lin, W., Wang, H., Tang, Q., Burrows, S. M., Caldwell, P., Zhang, K., Easter, R. C., Cameron-Smith, P., Singh, B., Wan, H., Golaz, J., Harrop, B. E., Roesler, E., Bacmeister, J., Larson, V. E., Evans, K. J., Qian, Y., Taylor, M., Leung, L. R., Zhang, Y., Brent, L., Branstetter, M., Hannay, C., Mahajan, S., Mametjanov, A., Neale, R., Richter, J. H., Yoon, J., Zender, C. S., Bader, D., Flanner, M., Foucar, J. G., Jacob, R., Keen, N., Klein, S. A., Liu, X., Salinger, A., Shrivastava, M., and Yang, Y.: An Overview of the Atmospheric Component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2377–2411, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001629, 2019. a
Reese, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Levermann, A., and Winkelmann, R.: The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 53–57, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x, 2018. a
Ringler, T., Petersen, M., Higdon, R. L., Jacobsen, D., Jones, P. W., and Maltrud, M.: A multi-resolution approach to global ocean modeling, Ocean Model., 69, 211–232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.04.010, 2013. a
Ryan, S., Hattermann, T., Darelius, E., and Schröder, M.: Seasonal cycle of hydrography on the eastern shelf of the Filchner Trough, Weddell Sea, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 6437–6453, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012916, 2017. a, b, c
Ryan, S., Hellmer, H. H., Janout, M., Darelius, E., Vignes, L., and Schröder, M.: Exceptionally Warm and Prolonged Flow of Warm Deep Water Toward the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in 2017, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088119, 2020. a
Si, Y., Stewart, A. L., and Eisenman, I.: Heat transport across the Antarctic Slope Front controlled by cross-slope salinity gradients, Science Advances, 9, eadd7049, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add7049, 2023. a
Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., Gregory, J. M., Lee, V., Mathiot, P., Payne, A. J., Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022. a
Silvano, A., Rintoul, S. R., Peña-Molino, B., Hobbs, W. R., Van Wijk, E., Aoki, S., Tamura, T., and Williams, G. D.: Freshening by glacial meltwater enhances melting of ice shelves and reduces formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, Science Advances, 4, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aap9467, 2018. a
Steele, M., Morley, R., and Ermold, W.: PHC: A Global Ocean Hydrography with a High-Quality Arctic Ocean, J. Climate, 14, 2079–2087, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2079:PAGOHW>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Thoma, M., Grosfeld, K., Makinson, K., and Lange, M. A.: Modelling the Impact of Ocean Warming on Melting and Water Masses of Ice Shelves in the Eastern Weddell Sea, Ocean Dynam., 60, 479–489, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-010-0262-x, 2010. a, b
Thoma, M., Determann, J., Grosfeld, K., Goeller, S., and Hellmer, H. H.: Future sea-level rise due to projected ocean warming beneath the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf: A coupled model study, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 431, 217–224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.09.013, 2015. a
Thompson, A. F., Stewart, A. L., Spence, P., and Heywood, K. J.: The Antarctic Slope Current in a Changing Climate, Rev. Geophys., 56, 741–770, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000624, 2018. a, b
Timmermann, R. and Hellmer, H. H.: Southern Ocean warming and increased ice shelf basal melting in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries based on coupled ice-ocean finite-element modelling, Ocean Dynam., 63, 1011–1026, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0642-0, 2013. a, b
Turner, A. K. and Hunke, E. C.: Impacts of a mushy-layer thermodynamic approach in global sea-ice simulations using the CICE sea-ice model, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 120, 1253–1275, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010358, 2015. a
Turner, A. K., Hunke, E. C., and Bitz, C. M.: Two modes of sea-ice gravity drainage: A parameterization for large-scale modeling, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 2279–2294, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20171, 2013. a
Turner, A. K., Lipscomb, W. H., Hunke, E. C., Jacobsen, D. W., Jeffery, N., Engwirda, D., Ringler, T. D., and Wolfe, J. D.: MPAS-Seaice (v1.0.0): sea-ice dynamics on unstructured Voronoi meshes, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3721–3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Wang, Q., Danilov, S., Fahrbach, E., Schröter, J., and Jung, T.: On the impact of wind forcing on the seasonal variability of Weddell Sea Bottom Water transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051198, 2012. a, b
Zhang, T., Price, S. F., Hoffman, M. J., Perego, M., and Asay-Davis, X.: Diagnosing the sensitivity of grounding-line flux to changes in sub-ice-shelf melting, The Cryosphere, 14, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3407-2020, 2020. a
Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R., Garcia, H. E., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova, O. K., Weathers, K. W., Paver, C. R., and Smolyar, I. V.: World Ocean Atlas 2018, Volume 2: Salinity, Tech. Rep. Atlas NESDIS 82, NOAA, https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/WOA18/DOC/woa18_vol2.pdf (last access: 28 May 2024), 2019. a
Short summary
The Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica is susceptible to the intrusion of deep, warm ocean water that could increase the melting at the ice-shelf base by a factor of 10. We show that representing this potential melt regime switch in a low-resolution climate model requires careful treatment of iceberg melting and ocean mixing. We also demonstrate a possible ice-shelf melt domino effect where increased melting of nearby ice shelves can lead to the melt regime switch at Filchner–Ronne.
The Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica is susceptible to the intrusion of deep, warm ocean...
