Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2487-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2487-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 May 2024
Research article |
| 22 May 2024
| 22 May 2024
Hydrological response of Andean catchments to recent glacier mass loss
Alexis Caro
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Grenoble-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE, UMR 5001), 38000 Grenoble, France
Thomas Condom
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Grenoble-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE, UMR 5001), 38000 Grenoble, France
Antoine Rabatel
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Grenoble-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE, UMR 5001), 38000 Grenoble, France
Nicolas Champollion
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Grenoble-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE, UMR 5001), 38000 Grenoble, France
Nicolás García
Glaciología y Cambio Climático, Centro de Estudios Científicos (CECs), Valdivia, Chile
Freddy Saavedra
Departamento de Ciencias Geográficas, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Exactas, Universidad de Playa Ancha, Leopoldo Carvallo 270, Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, Chile
Related authors
Rodrigo Aguayo, Fabien Maussion, Lilian Schuster, Marius Schaefer, Alexis Caro, Patrick Schmitt, Jonathan Mackay, Lizz Ultee, Jorge Leon-Muñoz, and Mauricio Aguayo
The Cryosphere, 18, 5383–5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of the historical climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Lucille Gimenes, Romain Millan, Nicolas Champollion, and Jordi Bolibar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3460, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
This study looks how changes in glacier thickness estimates and temperature affect when meltwater from glaciers in the western Kunlun Mountains will reach its peak. Using a global glacier model and two different datasets, we found that smaller glaciers and warmer temperatures cause peak meltwater to happen sooner. This is of interests since it affects future water supplies for people relying on glacier runoff, highlighting the need for accurate ice volume estimates.
Claudio Bravo, Sebastián Cisternas, Maximiliano Viale, Pablo Paredes, Deniz Bozkurt, and Nicolás García-Lee
The Cryosphere, 19, 1897–1913, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1897-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1897-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the impact of a summer snow accumulation event linked to an atmospheric river in central Chile. Using observational and remote sensing data, we show that accumulation prevails in all the glaciers of the Maipo River basin, and this sole event defines the fact that the Olivares Alfa glacier mass balance was close to equilibrium despite it being a dry year. This demonstrates that an unseasonal accumulation event can counteract the seasonal trends affecting subtropical Andean glaciers.
Léon Roussel, Marie Dumont, Marion Réveillet, Delphine Six, Marin Kneib, Pierre Nabat, Kevin Fourteau, Diego Monteiro, Simon Gascoin, Emmanuel Thibert, Antoine Rabatel, Jean-Emmanuel Sicart, Mylène Bonnefoy, Luc Piard, Olivier Laarman, Bruno Jourdain, Mathieu Fructus, Matthieu Vernay, and Matthieu Lafaysse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1741, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Saharan dust deposits frequently color alpine glaciers orange. Mineral dust reduces snow albedo and increases snow and glaciers melt rate. Using physical modeling, we quantified the impact of dust on the Argentière Glacier over the period 2019–2022. We found that that the contribution of mineral dust to the melt represents between 6 and 12 % of Argentière Glacier summer melt. At specific locations, the impact of dust over one year can rise to an equivalent of 1 meter of melted ice.
Feras Abdulsamad, Josué Bock, Florence Magnin, Emmanuel Malet, André Revil, Matan Ben-Asher, Jessy Richard, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Marios Karaoulis, Thomas Condom, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-637, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost dynamics at Aiguille du Midi in the French Alps was investigated using Automated Electrical Resistivity Tomography (A-ERT) during four years. A-ERT reveals seasonal and multi-year permafrost changes. Temperatures estimated using resistivity measurements provide a good agreement with measured temperature in borehole in frozen zone. Variations in active layer thickness across different faces were observed, along with a slight decrease in permafrost resistivity suggesting warming.
Etienne Ducasse, Romain Millan, Jonas Kvist Andersen, and Antoine Rabatel
The Cryosphere, 19, 911–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-911-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-911-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines glacier movement in the tropical Andes from 2013 to 2022 using satellite data. Despite challenges like small glacier size and frequent cloud cover, we tracked annual speeds and seasonal changes. We found stable annual speeds but significant shifts between wet and dry seasons, likely due to changes in meltwater production and glacier–bedrock conditions. This research enhances understanding of how tropical glaciers react to climate change.
Nilo Lima-Quispe, Denis Ruelland, Antoine Rabatel, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, and Thomas Condom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 655–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-655-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimated the water balance of Lake Titicaca using an integrated modeling framework that considers natural hydrological processes and net irrigation consumption. The proposed approach was implemented at a daily scale for a period of 35 years. This framework is able to simulate lake water levels with good accuracy over a wide range of hydroclimatic conditions. The findings demonstrate that a simple representation of hydrological processes is suitable for use in poorly gauged regions.
Marin Kneib, Amaury Dehecq, Adrien Gilbert, Auguste Basset, Evan S. Miles, Guillaume Jouvet, Bruno Jourdain, Etienne Ducasse, Luc Beraud, Antoine Rabatel, Jérémie Mouginot, Guillem Carcanade, Olivier Laarman, Fanny Brun, and Delphine Six
The Cryosphere, 18, 5965–5983, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5965-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5965-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches contribute to increasing the accumulation on mountain glaciers by redistributing snow from surrounding mountains slopes. Here we quantified the contribution of avalanches to the mass balance of Argentière Glacier in the French Alps, by combining satellite and field observations to model the glacier dynamics. We show that the contribution of avalanches locally increases the accumulation by 60–70 % and that accounting for this effect results in less ice loss by the end of the century.
Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot
The Cryosphere, 18, 5519–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.
Rodrigo Aguayo, Fabien Maussion, Lilian Schuster, Marius Schaefer, Alexis Caro, Patrick Schmitt, Jonathan Mackay, Lizz Ultee, Jorge Leon-Muñoz, and Mauricio Aguayo
The Cryosphere, 18, 5383–5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of the historical climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 18, 5045–5066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Nicolás García-Lee, Claudio Bravo, Álvaro Gónzalez-Reyes, and Piero Mardones
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1137–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses the 0 °C isotherm in Patagonia from 1959 to 2021, using observational and fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis data. The model aligns well with observations, highlighting significant altitude variations between the western and eastern sides of the austral Andes, a correlation between isotherm fluctuations and the Southern Annular Mode index, and an upward trend in the study area (especially in northwestern Patagonia).
Julio Salcedo-Castro, Antonio Olita, Freddy Saavedra, Gonzalo S. Saldías, Raúl C. Cruz-Gómez, and Cristian D. De la Torre Martínez
Ocean Sci., 19, 1687–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Considering the relevance and impact of river discharges on the coastal environment, it is necessary to understand the processes associated with river plume dynamics in different regions and at different scales. Modeling studies focused on the eastern Pacific coast under the influence of the Humboldt Current are scarce. Here, we conduct for the first time an interannual modeling study of two river plumes off central Chile and discuss their characteristics.
Arthur Bayle, Bradley Z. Carlson, Anaïs Zimmer, Sophie Vallée, Antoine Rabatel, Edoardo Cremonese, Gianluca Filippa, Cédric Dentant, Christophe Randin, Andrea Mainetti, Erwan Roussel, Simon Gascoin, Dov Corenblit, and Philippe Choler
Biogeosciences, 20, 1649–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier forefields have long provided ecologists with a model to study patterns of plant succession following glacier retreat. We used remote sensing approaches to study early succession dynamics as it allows to analyze the deglaciation, colonization, and vegetation growth within a single framework. We found that the heterogeneity of early succession dynamics is deterministic and can be explained well by local environmental context. This work has been done by an international consortium.
Rubén Basantes-Serrano, Antoine Rabatel, Bernard Francou, Christian Vincent, Alvaro Soruco, Thomas Condom, and Jean Carlo Ruíz
The Cryosphere, 16, 4659–4677, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the volume variation of 17 glaciers on the Antisana ice cap, near the Equator. We used aerial and satellite images for the period 1956–2016. We highlight very negative changes in 1956–1964 and 1979–1997 and slightly negative or even positive conditions in 1965–1978 and 1997–2016, the latter despite the recent increase in temperatures. Glaciers react according to regional climate variability, while local humidity and topography influence the specific behaviour of each glacier.
Emilio I. Mateo, Bryan G. Mark, Robert Å. Hellström, Michel Baraer, Jeffrey M. McKenzie, Thomas Condom, Alejo Cochachín Rapre, Gilber Gonzales, Joe Quijano Gómez, and Rolando Cesai Crúz Encarnación
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2865–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2865-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2865-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents detailed and comprehensive hydrological and meteorological datasets collected over the past two decades throughout the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. With four weather stations and six streamflow gauges ranging from 3738 to 4750 m above sea level, this network displays a vertical breadth of data and enables detailed research of atmospheric and hydrological processes in a tropical high mountain region.
Romina Llanos, Patricia Moreira-Turcq, Bruno Turcq, Raúl Espinoza Villar, Yizet Huaman, Thomas Condom, and Bram Willems
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-47, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Our results highlight a marked decrease of high carbon accumulation rates in Andean peatlands over the last decades due to the diminution in melt water inflow generated by the retreat of glaciers as a consequence of regional warming. These marked changes stress the high ecological sensitivity of these peatlands, endangering their outstanding role in the regional (and even global) C cycle as large C sinks that contribute to the mitigation of global climate change.
Christian Vincent, Diego Cusicanqui, Bruno Jourdain, Olivier Laarman, Delphine Six, Adrien Gilbert, Andrea Walpersdorf, Antoine Rabatel, Luc Piard, Florent Gimbert, Olivier Gagliardini, Vincent Peyaud, Laurent Arnaud, Emmanuel Thibert, Fanny Brun, and Ugo Nanni
The Cryosphere, 15, 1259–1276, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1259-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In situ glacier point mass balance data are crucial to assess climate change in different regions of the world. Unfortunately, these data are rare because huge efforts are required to conduct in situ measurements on glaciers. Here, we propose a new approach from remote sensing observations. The method has been tested on the Argentière and Mer de Glace glaciers (France). It should be possible to apply this method to high-spatial-resolution satellite images and on numerous glaciers in the world.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T., Dobrowski, S. Z., Parks, S. A., and Hegewisch, K. C.: TerraClimate, a High-Resolution Global Dataset of Monthly Climate and Climatic Water Balance from 1958–2015, Sci. Data, 5, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.191, 2018.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Mendoza, P. A., Boisier, J. P., Addor, N., Galleguillos, M., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Lara, A., Puelma, C., Cortes, G., Garreaud, R., McPhee, J., and Ayala, A.: The CAMELS-CL dataset: catchment attributes and meteorology for large sample studies – Chile dataset, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018.
Autin, P., Sicart, J. E., Rabatel, A., Soruco, A., and Hock, R.: Climate Controls on the Interseasonal and Interannual Variability of the Surface Mass and Energy Balances of a Tropical Glacier (Zongo Glacier, Bolivia, 16° S): New Insights From the Multi-Year Application of a Distributed Energy Balance Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2021JD035410, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035410, 2022.
Ayala, Á., Pellicciotti, F., MacDonell, S., McPhee, J., and Burlando, P.: Patterns of glacier ablation across North-Central Chile: Identifying the limits of empirical melt models under sublimation-favorable conditions, Water Resour. Res., 53, 5601–5625, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR020126, 2017.
Ayala, Á., Farías-Barahona, D., Huss, M., Pellicciotti, F., McPhee, J., and Farinotti, D.: Glacier runoff variations since 1955 in the Maipo River basin, in the semiarid Andes of central Chile, The Cryosphere, 14, 2005–2027, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, 2020.
Baraer, M., Mark, B. G., Mckenzie, J. M., Condom, T., Bury, J., Huh, K.-I., Portocarrero, C., Gómez, J., and Rathay, S.: Glacier Recession and Water Resources in Peru's Cordillera Blanca, J. Glaciol., 58, 134–150, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J186, 2012.
Basantes-Serrano, R., Rabatel, A., Francou, B., Vincent, C., Soruco, A., Condom, T., and Ruíz, J. C.: New insights into the decadal variability in glacier volume of a tropical ice cap, Antisana (0°29′ S, 78°09′ W), explained by the morpho-topographic and climatic context, The Cryosphere, 16, 4659–4677, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4659-2022, 2022.
Braun, L. N. and Renner, C. B.: Application of a conceptual runoff model in different physiographic regions of Switzerland, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 37, 217–231. 1992.
Bravo, C., Loriaux, T., Rivera, A., and Brock, B. W.: Assessing glacier melt contribution to streamflow at Universidad Glacier, central Andes of Chile, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3249–3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3249-2017, 2017.
Burger, F., Ayala, A., Farias, D., Shaw, T. E., MacDonell, S., Brock, B., McPhee, J., and Pellicciotti, F.: Interannual Variability in Glacier Contribution to Runoff from a High-elevation Andean Catchment: Understanding the Role of Debris Cover in Glacier Hydrology, Hydrol. Process., 33, 214–229, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354, 2019.
Caro, A.: Estudios glaciológicos en los nevados de Chillán, University of Chile, Santiago, [thesis], https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/116536 (last access: September 2022), 2014.
Caro, A.: Hydrological Response of Andean Catchments to Recent Glacier Mass Loss (data), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7890462, 2023.
Caro, A., Condom, T., and Rabatel, A.: Climatic and Morphometric Explanatory Variables of Glacier Changes in the Andes (8–55° S): New Insights From Machine Learning Approaches, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 713011, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.713011, 2021.
Cauvy-Fraunié, S. and Dangles, O.: A Global Synthesis of Biodiversity Responses to Glacier Retreat. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3 (12), 1675–1685, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1042-8, 2019.
CEAZA: Datos meteorológicos de Chile, Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas [data set], http://www.ceazamet.cl/ (last access: July 2022), 2022.
CECs: Meteorological data measured by Centro de Estudios Científicos, Centro de Estudios Científicos, 2018.
Condom, T., Escobar, M., Purkey, D., Pouget, J. C., Suarez, W., Ramos, C., Apaestegui, J., Zapata, M., Gomez, J., and Vergara, W.: Modelling the hydrologic role of glaciers within a Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP): a case study in the Rio Santa watershed (Peru), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 869–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-8-869-2011, 2011.
Crippen, R., Buckley, S., Agram, P., Belz, E., Gurrola, E., Hensley, S., Kobrick, M., Lavalle, M., Martin, J., Neumann, M., Nguyen, Q., Rosen, P., Shimada, J., Simard, M., and Tung, W.: NASADEM Global Elevation Model: Methods and Progress. The International Archives of thePhotogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, XLI-B4, 125–128. (20), 2016.
Devenish, C. and Gianella, C.: Sustainable Mountain Development in the Andes. 20 Years of Sustainable Mountain Development in the Andes – from Rio 1992 to 2012 and beyond, CONDESAN, Lima, Peru, 2012.
DGA: Datos de estudios hidroglaciológicos de Chile, Dirección General de Aguas [data set], https://snia.mop.gob.cl (last access: July 2022), 2022.
Dussaillant, A., Buytaert, W., Meier, C., and Espinoza, F.: Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 57, 1530–1542, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.726993, 2012.
Dussaillant, I., Berthier, E., Brun, F., Masiokas, M., Hugonnet, R., Favier, V., Rabatel, A., Pitte, P., and Ruiz, L.: Two Decades of Glacier Mass Loss along the Andes, Nat. Geosci., 12, 802–808, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0432-5, 2019.
Farías-Barahona, D., Wilson, R., Bravo, C., Vivero, S., Caro, A., Shaw, T. E., Casassa, G., Ayala, A., Mejías, A., Harrison, S., Glasser, N. F., McPhee6, J., Wündrich, O., and Braun, M.: A Near 90-year Record of the Evolution of El Morado Glacier and its Proglacial lake, Central Chilean Andes, J. Glaciol., 66, 846–860, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.52, 2020.
Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Bauder, A., Funk, M., and Truffer, M.: A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers, J. Glaciol., 55, 422–430, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214309788816759, 2009.
Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Fürst, J. J., Landmann, J., Machguth, H., Maussion, F., and Pandit, A.: A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth, Nat. Geosci., 12, 168–173, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0300-3, 2019.
Favier, V., Wagnon, P., Chazarin, J.-P., Maisincho, L., and Coudrain, A.: One-year measurements of surface heat budget on the ablation zone of Antizana glacier 15, Ecuadorian Andes, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D18105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004359, 2004.
Fukami, H. and Naruse, R.: Ablation of ice and heat balance on Soler glacier, Patagonia, Bulletin of Glacier Research, 4, 37–42, 1987.
Gao, L., Bernhardt, M., and Schulz, K.: Elevation correction of ERA-Interim temperature data in complex terrain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4661–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4661-2012, 2012.
Garreaud, R. D., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Barichivich, J., Boisier, J. P., Christie, D., Galleguillos, M., LeQuesne, C., McPhee, J., and Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.: The 2010–2015 megadrought in central Chile: impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6307–6327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, 2017.
Gascoin, S., Kinnard, C., Ponce, R., Lhermitte, S., MacDonell, S., and Rabatel, A.: Glacier contribution to streamflow in two headwaters of the Huasco River, Dry Andes of Chile, The Cryosphere, 5, 1099–1113, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-1099-2011, 2011.
GLACIOCLIM: Données météorologiques, Service d’Observation GLACIOCLIM [data set], https://glacioclim.osug.fr/Donnees-des-Andes (last access: July 2022), 2022.
Guido, Z., McIntosh, J. C., Papuga, S. A., and Meixner, T.: Seasonal Glacial Meltwater Contributions to Surface Water in the Bolivian Andes: A Case Study Using Environmental Tracers, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 8, 260–273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.10.002, 2016.
Hernández, J., Mazzorana, B., Loriaux, T., and Iribarren, P.: Reconstrucción de caudales en la Cuenca Alta del Río Huasco, utilizando el modelo Cold Regional Hydrological Model (CRHM), AAGG2021, 2021.
Hock, R.: Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas, J. Hydrol., 282, 104–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9, 2003.
Hugonnet, R., McNabb, R., Berthier, E., Menounos, B., Nuth, C., Girod, L., Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Dussaillant, I., Brun, F., and Kääb, A.: Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century, Nature, 592, 726–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z, 2021.
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise, Front. Earth Sci., 3, 54, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00054, 2015.
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 135–140, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x, 2018.
IANIGLA: Datos meteorológicos, Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales [data set], https://observatorioandino.com/estaciones/ (last access: July 2022), 2022.
Kienholz, C., Rich, J. L., Arendt, A. A., and Hock, R.: A new method for deriving glacier centerlines applied to glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada, The Cryosphere, 8, 503–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-503-2014, 2014.
Koizumi, K. and Naruse, R.: Measurements of meteorological conditions and ablation at Tyndall Glacier, Southern Patagonia, in December 1990, Bulletin of Glacier Research, 10, 79–82, 1992.
Krogh, S. A., Pomeroy, J. W., and McPhee, J.: Physically based hydrological modelling using reanalysis data in Patagonia, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 172–193, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0178.1, 2014.
Lehner, B. and Grill, G.: Global river hydrography and network routing: baseline data and new approaches to study the world’s large river systems, Hydrol. Process., 27, 2171–2186, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9740, 2013.
MacDonell, S., Kinnard, C., Mölg, T., Nicholson, L., and Abermann, J.: Meteorological drivers of ablation processes on a cold glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile, The Cryosphere, 7, 1513–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1513-2013, 2013.
Malmros, J. K., Mernild, S. H., Wilson, R., Yde, J. C., and Fensholt, R.: Glacier Area Changes in the central Chilean and Argentinean Andes 1955–2013/14, J. Glaciol., 62, 391–401, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.43, 2016.
Marangunic, C., Ugalde, F., Apey, A., Armendáriz, I., Bustamante, M., and Peralta, C.: Ecosistemas de montaña de la cuenca alta del río Mapocho, Glaciares en la cuenca alta del río Mapocho: variaciones y características principales, AngloAmerican – CAPES UC, Santiago de Chile, 2021.
Mark, B. and Seltzer, G.: Tropical glacier meltwater contribution to stream discharge: A case study in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, J. Glaciol., 49, 271–281, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756503781830746, 2003.
Marzeion, B., Jarosch, A. H., and Hofer, M.: Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers, The Cryosphere, 6, 1295–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012, 2012.
Masiokas, M. H., Christie, D. A., Le Quesne, C., Pitte, P., Ruiz, L., Villalba, R., Luckman, B. H., Berthier, E., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gonzälez-Reyes, Á., McPhee, J., and Barcaza, G.: Reconstructing the annual mass balance of the Echaurren Norte glacier (Central Andes, 33.5° S) using local and regional hydroclimatic data, The Cryosphere, 10, 927–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-927-2016, 2016.
Masiokas, M. H., Rabatel, A., Rivera, A., Ruiz, L., Pitte, P., Ceballos, J. L., Barcaza, G., Soruco, A., Bown, F., Berthier, E., Dussaillant, I., and MacDonell, S.: A Review of the Current State and Recent Changes of the Andean Cryosphere, Front. Earth Sci., 8, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00099, 2020.
Mateo, E. I., Mark, B. G., Hellström, R. Å., Baraer, M., McKenzie, J. M., Condom, T., Rapre, A. C., Gonzales, G., Gómez, J. Q., and Encarnación, R. C. C.: High-temporal-resolution hydrometeorological data collected in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Peru (2004–2020), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2865–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2865-2022, 2022.
Maussion, F., Butenko, A., Champollion, N., Dusch, M., Eis, J., Fourteau, K., Gregor, P., Jarosch, A. H., Landmann, J., Oesterle, F., Recinos, B., Rothenpieler, T., Vlug, A., Wild, C. T., and Marzeion, B.: The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019.
Meier, W. J.-H., Grießinger, J., Hochreuther, P., and Braun, M. H.: An Updated Multi-Temporal Glacier Inventory for the Patagonian Andes With Changes Between the Little Ice Age and 2016, Front. Earth Sci., 6, 62, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00062, 2018.
Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Rabatel, A., and Morlighem, M. : Ice velocity and thickness of the world's glaciers, Nat. Geosci., 15, 124–129, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00885-z, 2022.
NASA JPL: NASADEM Merged DEM Global 1 arc second V001 [Data set], NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC, https://doi.org/10.5067/MEaSUREs/NASADEM/NASADEM _HGT.001, 2020.
Rabassa, J.: El cambio climático global en la Patagonia desde el viaje de Charles Darwin hasta nuestros días, Revista de la Asociación Geológica Argentina, 67, 139–156, 2010.
Rabatel, A., Castebrunet, H., Favier, V., Nicholson, L., and Kinnard, C.: Glacier changes in the Pascua-Lama region, Chilean Andes (29° S): recent mass balance and 50 yr surface area variations, The Cryosphere, 5, 1029–1041, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-1029-2011, 2011.
Rabatel, A., Bermejo, A., Loarte, E., Soruco, A., Gomez, J., Leonardini, G., Vincent, C., and Sicart, J. E.: Relationship between snowline altitude, equilibrium-line altitude and mass balance on outer tropical glaciers: Glaciar Zongo – Bolivia, 16° S and Glaciar Artesonraju – Peru, 9° S, J. Glaciol., 58, 1027–1036, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J027, 2012.
Rabatel, A., Francou, B., Soruco, A., Gomez, J., Cáceres, B., Ceballos, J. L., Basantes, R., Vuille, M., Sicart, J.-E., Huggel, C., Scheel, M., Lejeune, Y., Arnaud, Y., Collet, M., Condom, T., Consoli, G., Favier, V., Jomelli, V., Galarraga, R., Ginot, P., Maisincho, L., Mendoza, J., Ménégoz, M., Ramirez, E., Ribstein, P., Suarez, W., Villacis, M., and Wagnon, P.: Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change, The Cryosphere, 7, 81–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, 2013.
Ragettli, S. and Pellicciotti, F.: Calibration of a Physically Based, Spatially Distributed Hydrological Model in a Glacierized basin: On the Use of Knowledge from Glaciometeorological Processes to Constrain Model Parameters, Water Resour. Res., 48, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010559, 2012.
RGI Consortium: Randolph Glacier Inventory – A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines, Version 6, NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, https://doi.org/10.7265/4m1f-gd79, 2017.
Rivera, A.: Mass balance investigations at Glaciar Chico, Southern Patagonia Icefield, Chile, PhD thesis, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK, 303 pp, 2004.
Robson, B. A., MacDonell, S., Ayala, Á., Bolch, T., Nielsen, P. R., and Vivero, S.: Glacier and rock glacier changes since the 1950s in the La Laguna catchment, Chile, The Cryosphere, 16, 647–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-647-2022, 2022.
Rounce, D. R., Khurana, T., Short, M. B., Hock, R., Shean, D. E., and Brinkerhoff, D. J.: Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a large-scale glacier evolution model using Bayesian inference: application to High Mountain Asia, J. Glaciol., 66, 175–187, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.91, 2020.
Ruiz, L., Berthier, E., Viale, M., Pitte, P., and Masiokas, M. H.: Recent geodetic mass balance of Monte Tronador glaciers, northern Patagonian Andes, The Cryosphere, 11, 619–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-619-2017, 2017.
Schaefer, M., Rodriguez, J., Scheiter, M., and Casassa, G.: Climate and surface mass balance of Mocho Glacier, Chilean Lake District, 40° S, J. Glaciol., 63, 218–228, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.129, 2017.
Schuster. L., Rounce, D. R., and Maussion, F.: Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies, Ann. Glaciol., 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.57, 2023.
Seehaus, T., Malz, P., Sommer, C., Lippl, S., Cochachin, A., and Braun, M.: Changes of the tropical glaciers throughout Peru between 2000 and 2016 – mass balance and area fluctuations, The Cryosphere, 13, 2537–2556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2537-2019, 2019.
Seehaus, T., Malz, P., Sommer, C., Soruco, A., Rabatel, A., and Braun, M.: Mass balance and area changes of glaciers in the Cordillera Real and Tres Cruces, Bolivia, between 2000 and 2016, J. Glaciol., 66, 124–136, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.94, 2020.
SENAMHI: Datos hidrometeorológicos de Perú, Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú [data set], https://www.senamhi.gob.pe/?&p=descarga-datos-hidrometeorologicos (last access: July 2022), 2022.
Shaw, T. E., Caro, A., Mendoza, P., Ayala, Á., Pellicciotti, F., Gascoin, S., and McPhee, J.: The Utility of Optical Satellite Winter Snow Depths for Initializing a Glacio-Hydrological Model of a High-Elevation, Andean Catchment, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027188, 2020.
Sicart, J. E., Wagnon, P., and Ribstein, P.: Atmospheric controls of heat balance of Zongo Glacier (16° S, Bolivia), J. Geophys. Res., 110, D12106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005732, 2005.
Sicart, J. E., Ribstein, P., Francou, B., Pouyaud, B., and Condom, T.: Glacier mass balance of tropical Zongo Glacier, Bolivia, comparing hydrological and glaciological methods, Global Planet. Change, 59, 27–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.024, 2007.
Sicart, J. E., R. Hock, and Six, D.: Glacier melt, air temperature, and energy balance in different climates: The Bolivian Tropics, the French Alps, and northern Sweden, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D24113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010406, 2008.
Soruco, A., Vincent, C., Rabatel, A., Francou, B., Thibert, E., Sicart, J. E., and Condom, T.: Contribution of Glacier Runoff to Water Resources of La Paz City, Bolivia (16° S), Ann. Glaciol., 56, 147–154, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG70A001, 2015.
Stuefer, M.: Investigations on Mass Balance and Dynamics of Moreno Glacier Based on Field Measurements and Satellite Imagery, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, 1999.
Takeuchi, Y., Naruse, R., and Satow, K.: Characteristics of heat balance and ablation on Moreno and Tyndall glaciers, Patagonia, in the summer 1993/94, Bulletin of Glacier Research, 13, 45–56, 1995.
WGMS: Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 4 (2018–2019), edited by: Zemp, M., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gärtner-Roer, I., Bannwart, J., Paul, F., and Hoelzle, M., ISC (WDS)/IUGG (IACS)/UNEP/UNESCO/WMO, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, 278 pp., Based on database version, https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2021-05, 2021.
Zhang, G. Q., Bolch, T., Yao, T. D., Rounce, D. R., Chen, W. F., Veh, G., King, O., Allen, S. K., Wang, M. M., and Wang, W. C.: Underestimated mass loss from lake-terminating glaciers in the greater Himalaya, Nat. Geosci., 16, 333–338, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01150-1, 2023.
Zimmer, A., Meneses, R. I., Rabatel, A., Soruco, A., Dangles, O., and Anthelme, F.: Time Lag between Glacial Retreat and Upward Migration Alters Tropical alpine Communities, Perspect. Plant Ecol., 30, 89–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2017.05.003, 2018.
Short summary
The glacier runoff changes are still unknown in most of the Andean catchments, thereby increasing uncertainties in estimating water availability, especially during the dry season. Here, we simulate glacier evolution and related glacier runoff changes across the Andes between 2000 and 2019. Our results indicate a glacier reduction in 93 % of the catchments, leading to a 12 % increase in glacier melt. These results can be downloaded and integrated with discharge measurements in each catchment.
The glacier runoff changes are still unknown in most of the Andean catchments, thereby...
