Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 08 Dec 2023
| 08 Dec 2023
Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model
Application Laboratory, VAiG, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Liping Zhang
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Thomas L. Delworth
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Xiaosong Yang
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Fanrong Zeng
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Masami Nonaka
Application Laboratory, VAiG, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
Swadhin K. Behera
Application Laboratory, VAiG, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
Related authors
Yushi Morioka, Eric Maisonnave, Sébastien Masson, Clement Rousset, Luis Kornblueh, Marco Giorgetta, Masami Nonaka, and Swadhin K. Behera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2258, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean mesoscale eddies, which have a horizontal scale with an order of 100 km, play a prominent role in global ocean heat transport that regulates Earth climate. Here we newly develop an eddy-permitting climate model to demonstrate that the increased ocean model resolution improves representation of air-sea interaction in the western and eastern boundary current regions, while the improved sea ice model physics benefit realistic simulation of sea ice variability.
Yushi Morioka, Eric Maisonnave, Sébastien Masson, Clement Rousset, Luis Kornblueh, Marco Giorgetta, Masami Nonaka, and Swadhin K. Behera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2258, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean mesoscale eddies, which have a horizontal scale with an order of 100 km, play a prominent role in global ocean heat transport that regulates Earth climate. Here we newly develop an eddy-permitting climate model to demonstrate that the increased ocean model resolution improves representation of air-sea interaction in the western and eastern boundary current regions, while the improved sea ice model physics benefit realistic simulation of sea ice variability.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Vimal Koul, Thomas L. Delworth, Feiyu Lu, Andrew Wittenberg, and Michael A. Alexander
Ocean Sci., 20, 1631–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use a high-resolution regional ocean model to downscale seasonal ocean forecasts from the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR) model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). We find that the downscaled model has significantly higher prediction skill in many cases.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Yoshikazu Sasai, Sherwood Lan Smith, Eko Siswanto, Hideharu Sasaki, and Masami Nonaka
Biogeosciences, 19, 4865–4882, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4865-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4865-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We have investigated the adaptive response of phytoplankton growth to changing light, nutrients, and temperature over the North Pacific using two physical-biological models. We compare modeled chlorophyll and primary production from an inflexible control model (InFlexPFT), which assumes fixed carbon (C):nitrogen (N):chlorophyll (Chl) ratios, to a recently developed flexible phytoplankton functional type model (FlexPFT), which incorporates photoacclimation and variable C:N:Chl ratios.
Ayako Yamamoto, Masami Nonaka, Patrick Martineau, Akira Yamazaki, Young-Oh Kwon, Hisashi Nakamura, and Bunmei Taguchi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 819–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
While the key role of moist processes in blocking has recently been highlighted, their moisture sources remain unknown. Here, we investigate moisture sources for wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocks using a Lagrangian method. We show that the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and their extensions, along with the northeast of Hawaii, act as the primary moisture sources and springboards for particle ascent. We find that the evolution of the particle properties is sensitive to the moisture sources.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Hideharu Sasaki, Shinichiro Kida, Ryo Furue, Hidenori Aiki, Nobumasa Komori, Yukio Masumoto, Toru Miyama, Masami Nonaka, Yoshikazu Sasai, and Bunmei Taguchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3319-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A quasi-global eddying ocean hindcast simulation using a new version of our model, called OFES2, was conducted to overcome several issues in its previous version. OFES2 simulated oceanic fields from 1958 to 2016 with improved global sea surface temperature and salinity, water mass properties in the Indonesian and Arabian seas, and Niño3.4 and Indian Ocean Dipole indexes. The output from OFES2 will be useful in studying various oceanic phenomena with broad spatiotemporal scales.
Z. Y. Song, H. L. Liu, C. Z. Wang, L. P. Zhang, and F. L. Qiao
Ocean Sci., 10, 837–843, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-837-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-837-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Discipline: Sea ice | Subject: Antarctic
Inferring the seasonality of sea ice floes in the Weddell Sea using ICESat-2
Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss
Quantifying the influence of snow over sea ice morphology on L-band passive microwave satellite observations in the Southern Ocean
The role of atmospheric conditions in the Antarctic sea ice extent summer minima
Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice
A contrast in sea ice drift and deformation between winter and spring of 2019 in the Antarctic marginal ice zone
Signature of the stratosphere–troposphere coupling on recent record-breaking Antarctic sea-ice anomalies
Southern Ocean polynyas and dense water formation in a high-resolution, coupled Earth system model
A decade-plus of Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume estimates from CryoSat-2 using a physical model and waveform fitting
Annual evolution of the ice–ocean interaction beneath landfast ice in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica
The response of sea ice and high-salinity shelf water in the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya to cyclonic atmosphere circulations
Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode
Evolution of the dynamics, area, and ice production of the Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica, 2016–2021
Modulation of the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent by sea ice processes and feedbacks with the ocean and the atmosphere
Ice Sheet and Sea Ice Ultrawideband Microwave radiometric Airborne eXperiment (ISSIUMAX) in Antarctica: first results from Terra Nova Bay
Influence of fast ice on future ice shelf melting in the Totten Glacier area, East Antarctica
A comparison between Envisat and ICESat sea ice thickness in the Southern Ocean
An indicator of sea ice variability for the Antarctic marginal ice zone
Physical and mechanical properties of winter first-year ice in the Antarctic marginal ice zone along the Good Hope Line
Altimetric observation of wave attenuation through the Antarctic marginal ice zone using ICESat-2
Flexural and compressive strength of the landfast sea ice in the Prydz Bay, East Antarctic
The sensitivity of landfast sea ice to atmospheric forcing in single-column model simulations: a case study at Zhongshan Station, Antarctica
An evaluation of Antarctic sea-ice thickness from the Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System based on in situ and satellite observations
Rectification and validation of a daily satellite-derived Antarctic sea ice velocity product
Weddell Sea polynya analysis using SMOS–SMAP apparent sea ice thickness retrieval
Eighteen-year record of circum-Antarctic landfast-sea-ice distribution allows detailed baseline characterisation and reveals trends and variability
Brief communication: The anomalous winter 2019 sea-ice conditions in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
Southern Ocean polynyas in CMIP6 models
Airborne mapping of the sub-ice platelet layer under fast ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
Evaluation of sea-ice thickness from four reanalyses in the Antarctic Weddell Sea
The Antarctic sea ice cover from ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2: freeboard, snow depth, and ice thickness
Seasonal and interannual variability of landfast sea ice in Atka Bay, Weddell Sea, Antarctica
Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model
Retrieval of snow freeboard of Antarctic sea ice using waveform fitting of CryoSat-2 returns
Three years of sea ice freeboard, snow depth, and ice thickness of the Weddell Sea from Operation IceBridge and CryoSat-2
Mukund Gupta, Heather Regan, Younghyun Koo, Sean Minhui Tashi Chua, Xueke Li, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 19, 1241–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The sea ice cover is composed of floes, whose shapes set the material properties of the pack. Here, we use a satellite product (ICESat-2) to investigate these floe shapes within the Weddell Sea in Antarctica. We find that floes tend to become smaller during the melt season, while their thickness distribution exhibits different behavior between the western and southern regions of the pack. These metrics will help calibrate models and improve our understanding of sea ice physics across scales.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
Lu Zhou, Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Shiming Xu, Weixin Zhu, Sahra Kacimi, Stefanie Arndt, and Zifan Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4399–4434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snow over Antarctic sea ice, influenced by highly variable meteorological conditions and heavy snowfall, has a complex stratigraphy and profound impact on the microwave signature. We employ advanced radiation transfer models to analyse the effects of complex snow properties on brightness temperatures over the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Great potential lies in the understanding of snow processes and the application to satellite retrievals.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
David B. Bonan, Jakob Dörr, Robert C. J. Wills, Andrew F. Thompson, and Marius Årthun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2141–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice has exhibited variability over satellite records, including a period of gradual expansion and a period of sudden decline. We use a novel statistical method to identify sources of variability in observed Antarctic sea ice changes. We find that the gradual increase in sea ice is likely related to large-scale temperature trends, and periods of abrupt sea ice decline are related to specific flavors of equatorial tropical variability known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Ashleigh Womack, Alberto Alberello, Marc de Vos, Alessandro Toffoli, Robyn Verrinder, and Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 18, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-205-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Synoptic events have a significant influence on the evolution of Antarctic sea ice. Our current understanding of the interactions between cyclones and sea ice remains limited. Using two ensembles of buoys, deployed in the north-eastern Weddell Sea region during winter and spring of 2019, we show how the evolution and spatial pattern of sea ice drift and deformation in the Antarctic marginal ice zone were affected by the balance between atmospheric and oceanic forcing and the local ice.
Raúl R. Cordero, Sarah Feron, Alessandro Damiani, Pedro J. Llanillo, Jorge Carrasco, Alia L. Khan, Richard Bintanja, Zutao Ouyang, and Gino Casassa
The Cryosphere, 17, 4995–5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4995-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the response of Antarctic sea ice to year-to-year changes in the tropospheric–stratospheric dynamics. Our findings suggest that, by affecting the tropospheric westerlies, the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex has played a major role in recent record-breaking anomalies in Antarctic sea ice.
Hyein Jeong, Adrian K. Turner, Andrew F. Roberts, Milena Veneziani, Stephen F. Price, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Luke P. Van Roekel, Wuyin Lin, Peter M. Caldwell, Hyo-Seok Park, Jonathan D. Wolfe, and Azamat Mametjanov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2681–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We find that E3SM-HR reproduces the main features of the Antarctic coastal polynyas. Despite the high amount of coastal sea ice production, the densest water masses are formed in the open ocean. Biases related to the lack of dense water formation are associated with overly strong atmospheric polar easterlies. Our results indicate that the large-scale polar atmospheric circulation must be accurately simulated in models to properly reproduce Antarctic dense water formation.
Steven Fons, Nathan Kurtz, and Marco Bagnardi
The Cryosphere, 17, 2487–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice thickness is an important quantity in the Earth system. Due to the thick and complex snow cover on Antarctic sea ice, estimating the thickness of the ice pack is difficult using traditional methods in radar altimetry. In this work, we use a waveform model to estimate the freeboard and snow depth of Antarctic sea ice from CryoSat-2 and use these values to calculate sea ice thickness and volume between 2010 and 2021 and showcase how the sea ice pack has changed over this time.
Haihan Hu, Jiechen Zhao, Petra Heil, Zhiliang Qin, Jingkai Ma, Fengming Hui, and Xiao Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 2231–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The oceanic characteristics beneath sea ice significantly affect ice growth and melting. The high-frequency and long-term observations of oceanic variables allow us to deeply investigate their diurnal and seasonal variation and evaluate their influences on sea ice evolution. The large-scale sea ice distribution and ocean circulation contributed to the seasonal variation of ocean variables, revealing the important relationship between large-scale and local phenomena.
Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman, Petteri Uotila, Xichen Li, and Meng Zhou
The Cryosphere, 17, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The bottom water of the global ocean originates from high-salinity water formed in polynyas in the Southern Ocean where sea ice coverage is low. This study reveals the impacts of cyclones on sea ice and water mass formation in the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya using numerical simulations. Sea ice production is rapidly increased caused by enhancement in offshore wind, promoting high-salinity water formation in the polynya. Cyclones also modulate the transport of this water mass by wind-driven currents.
Serena Schroeter, Terence J. O'Kane, and Paul A. Sandery
The Cryosphere, 17, 701–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice has increased over much of the satellite record, but we show that the early, strongly opposing regional trends diminish and reverse over time, leading to overall negative trends in recent decades. The dominant pattern of atmospheric flow has changed from strongly east–west to more wave-like with enhanced north–south winds. Sea surface temperatures have also changed from circumpolar cooling to regional warming, suggesting recent record low sea ice will not rapidly recover.
Grant J. Macdonald, Stephen F. Ackley, Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez, and Adrià Blanco-Cabanillas
The Cryosphere, 17, 457–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are key sites of sea ice production, biological activity, and carbon sequestration. The Amundsen Sea Polynya is of particular interest due to its size and location. By analyzing radar imagery and climate and sea ice data products, we evaluate variations in the dynamics, area, and ice production of the Amundsen Sea Polynya. In particular, we find the local seafloor topography and associated grounded icebergs play an important role in the polynya dynamics, influencing ice production.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Marco Brogioni, Mark J. Andrews, Stefano Urbini, Kenneth C. Jezek, Joel T. Johnson, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Giovanni Macelloni, Stephen F. Ackley, Alexandra Bringer, Ludovic Brucker, Oguz Demir, Giacomo Fontanelli, Caglar Yardim, Lars Kaleschke, Francesco Montomoli, Leung Tsang, Silvia Becagli, and Massimo Frezzotti
The Cryosphere, 17, 255–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2018 the first Antarctic campaign of UWBRAD was carried out. UWBRAD is a new radiometer able to collect microwave spectral signatures over 0.5–2 GHz, thus outperforming existing similar sensors. It allows us to probe thicker sea ice and ice sheet down to the bedrock. In this work we tried to assess the UWBRAD potentials for sea ice, glaciers, ice shelves and buried lakes. We also highlighted the wider range of information the spectral signature can provide to glaciological studies.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Jinfei Wang, Chao Min, Robert Ricker, Qian Shi, Bo Han, Stefan Hendricks, Renhao Wu, and Qinghua Yang
The Cryosphere, 16, 4473–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The differences between Envisat and ICESat sea ice thickness (SIT) reveal significant temporal and spatial variations. Our findings suggest that both overestimation of Envisat sea ice freeboard, potentially caused by radar backscatter originating from inside the snow layer, and the AMSR-E snow depth biases and sea ice density uncertainties can possibly account for the differences between Envisat and ICESat SIT.
Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 16, 4087–4106, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4087-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Antarctic is the largest in the world ocean. Antarctic sea ice has large year-to-year changes, and the MIZ represents its most variable component. Processes typical of the MIZ have also been observed in fully ice-covered ocean and are not captured by existing diagnostics. A new statistical method has been shown to address previous limitations in assessing the seasonal cycle of MIZ extent and to provide a probability map of sea ice state in the Southern Ocean.
Sebastian Skatulla, Riesna R. Audh, Andrea Cook, Ehlke Hepworth, Siobhan Johnson, Doru C. Lupascu, Keith MacHutchon, Rutger Marquart, Tommy Mielke, Emmanuel Omatuku, Felix Paul, Tokoloho Rampai, Jörg Schröder, Carina Schwarz, and Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 16, 2899–2925, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
First-year sea ice has been sampled at the advancing outer edge of the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) along the Good Hope Line. Ice cores were extracted from five pancake ice floes and subsequently analysed for their physical and mechanical properties. Of particular interest was elucidating the transition of ice composition within the MIZ in terms of differences in mechanical stiffness and strength properties as linked to physical and textural characteristics at early-stage ice formation.
Jill Brouwer, Alexander D. Fraser, Damian J. Murphy, Pat Wongpan, Alberto Alberello, Alison Kohout, Christopher Horvat, Simon Wotherspoon, Robert A. Massom, Jessica Cartwright, and Guy D. Williams
The Cryosphere, 16, 2325–2353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The marginal ice zone is the region where ocean waves interact with sea ice. Although this important region influences many sea ice, ocean and biological processes, it has been difficult to accurately measure on a large scale from satellite instruments. We present new techniques for measuring wave attenuation using the NASA ICESat-2 laser altimeter. By measuring how waves attenuate within the sea ice, we show that the marginal ice zone may be far wider than previously realised.
Qingkai Wang, Zhaoquan Li, Peng Lu, Yigang Xu, and Zhijun Li
The Cryosphere, 16, 1941–1961, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1941-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large area of landfast sea ice exists in the Prydz Bay, and it is always a safety concern to transport cargos on ice to the research stations. Knowing the mechanical properties of sea ice is helpful to solve the issue; however, these data are rarely reported in this region. We explore the effects of sea ice physical properties on the flexural strength, effective elastic modulus, and uniaxial compressive strength, which gives new insights into assessing the bearing capacity of landfast sea ice.
Fengguan Gu, Qinghua Yang, Frank Kauker, Changwei Liu, Guanghua Hao, Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, Petra Heil, Xuewei Li, and Bo Han
The Cryosphere, 16, 1873–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1873-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sea ice thickness was simulated by a single-column model and compared with in situ observations obtained off Zhongshan Station in the Antarctic. It is shown that the unrealistic precipitation in the atmospheric forcing data leads to the largest bias in sea ice thickness and snow depth modeling. In addition, the increasing snow depth gradually inhibits the growth of sea ice associated with thermal blanketing by the snow.
Sutao Liao, Hao Luo, Jinfei Wang, Qian Shi, Jinlun Zhang, and Qinghua Yang
The Cryosphere, 16, 1807–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS) can basically reproduce the observed variability in Antarctic sea-ice volume and its changes in the trend before and after 2013, and it underestimates Antarctic sea-ice thickness (SIT) especially in deformed ice zones. Assimilating additional sea-ice observations with advanced assimilation methods may result in a more accurate estimation of Antarctic SIT.
Tian R. Tian, Alexander D. Fraser, Noriaki Kimura, Chen Zhao, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 16, 1299–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a comprehensive validation of a satellite observational sea ice motion product in Antarctica by using drifting buoys. Two problems existing in this sea ice motion product have been noticed. After rectifying problems, we use it to investigate the impacts of satellite observational configuration and timescale on Antarctic sea ice kinematics and suggest the future improvement of satellite missions specifically designed for retrieval of sea ice motion.
Alexander Mchedlishvili, Gunnar Spreen, Christian Melsheimer, and Marcus Huntemann
The Cryosphere, 16, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-471-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we show that the activity leading to the open-ocean polynyas near the Maud Rise seamount that have occurred repeatedly from 1974–1976 as well as 2016–2017 does not simply stop for polynya-free years. Using apparent sea ice thickness retrieval, we have identified anomalies where there is thinning of sea ice on a scale that is comparable to that of the polynya events of 2016–2017. These anomalies took place in 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2018.
Alexander D. Fraser, Robert A. Massom, Mark S. Handcock, Phillip Reid, Kay I. Ohshima, Marilyn N. Raphael, Jessica Cartwright, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Zhaohui Wang, and Richard Porter-Smith
The Cryosphere, 15, 5061–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5061-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Landfast ice is sea ice that remains stationary by attaching to Antarctica's coastline and grounded icebergs. Although a variable feature, landfast ice exerts influence on key coastal processes involving pack ice, the ice sheet, ocean, and atmosphere and is of ecological importance. We present a first analysis of change in landfast ice over an 18-year period and quantify trends (−0.19 ± 0.18 % yr−1). This analysis forms a reference of landfast-ice extent and variability for use in other studies.
Greg H. Leonard, Kate E. Turner, Maren E. Richter, Maddy S. Whittaker, and Inga J. Smith
The Cryosphere, 15, 4999–5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4999-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4999-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
McMurdo Sound sea ice can generally be partitioned into two regimes: a stable fast-ice cover forming south of approximately 77.6° S and a more dynamic region north of 77.6° S that is regularly impacted by polynyas. In 2019, a stable fast-ice cover formed unusually late due to repeated break-out events. This subsequently affected sea-ice operations in the 2019/20 field season. We analysed the 2019 sea-ice conditions and found a strong correlation with unusually large southerly wind events.
Martin Mohrmann, Céline Heuzé, and Sebastiaan Swart
The Cryosphere, 15, 4281–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are large open-water areas within the sea ice. We developed a method to estimate their area, distribution and frequency for the Southern Ocean in climate models and observations. All models have polynyas along the coast but few do so in the open ocean, in contrast to observations. We examine potential atmospheric and oceanic drivers of open-water polynyas and discuss recently implemented schemes that may have improved some models' polynya representation.
Christian Haas, Patricia J. Langhorne, Wolfgang Rack, Greg H. Leonard, Gemma M. Brett, Daniel Price, Justin F. Beckers, and Alex J. Gough
The Cryosphere, 15, 247–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-247-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a method to remotely detect proxy signals of Antarctic ice shelf melt under adjacent sea ice. It is based on aircraft surveys with electromagnetic induction sounding. We found year-to-year variability of the ice shelf melt proxy in McMurdo Sound and spatial fine structure that support assumptions about the melt of the McMurdo Ice Shelf. With this method it will be possible to map and detect locations of intense ice shelf melt along the coast of Antarctica.
Qian Shi, Qinghua Yang, Longjiang Mu, Jinfei Wang, François Massonnet, and Matthew R. Mazloff
The Cryosphere, 15, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The ice thickness from four state-of-the-art reanalyses (GECCO2, SOSE, NEMO-EnKF and GIOMAS) are evaluated against that from remote sensing and in situ observations in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Most of the reanalyses can reproduce ice thickness in the central and eastern Weddell Sea but failed to capture the thick and deformed ice in the western Weddell Sea. These results demonstrate the possibilities and limitations of using current sea-ice reanalysis in Antarctic climate research.
Sahra Kacimi and Ron Kwok
The Cryosphere, 14, 4453–4474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4453-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our current understanding of Antarctic ice cover is largely informed by ice extent measurements from passive microwave sensors. These records, while useful, provide a limited picture of how the ice is responding to climate change. In this paper, we combine measurements from ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2 missions to assess snow depth and ice thickness of the Antarctic ice cover over an 8-month period (April through November 2019). The potential impact of salinity in the snow layer is discussed.
Stefanie Arndt, Mario Hoppmann, Holger Schmithüsen, Alexander D. Fraser, and Marcel Nicolaus
The Cryosphere, 14, 2775–2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2775-2020, 2020
Hailong Wang, Jeremy G. Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jesse M. Nusbaumer, Hansi Singh, David Noone, Philip J. Rasch, and Rudong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using a climate model with unique water source tagging, we found that sea-ice anomalies in the Southern Ocean and accompanying SST changes have a significant influence on Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution through their direct impact on moisture sources and indirect impact on moisture transport. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation.
Steven W. Fons and Nathan T. Kurtz
The Cryosphere, 13, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-861-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-861-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A method to measure the snow freeboard of Antarctic sea ice from CryoSat-2 data is developed. Through comparisons with data from airborne campaigns and another satellite mission, we find that this method can reasonably retrieve snow freeboard across the Antarctic and shows promise in retrieving snow depth in certain locations. Snow freeboard data from CryoSat-2 are important because they enable the calculation of sea ice thickness and help to better understand snow depth on Antarctic sea ice.
Ron Kwok and Sahra Kacimi
The Cryosphere, 12, 2789–2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2789-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The variability of snow depth and ice thickness in three years of repeat surveys of an IceBridge (OIB) transect across the Weddell Sea is examined. Retrieved thicknesses suggest a highly variable but broadly thicker ice cover compared to that inferred from drilling and ship-based measurements. The use of lidar and radar altimeters to estimate snow depth for thickness calculations is analyzed, and the need for better characterization of biases due to radar penetration effects is highlighted.
Cited articles
Adcroft, A., Anderson, W., Balaji, V., Blanton, C., Bushuk, M., Dufour, C. O., Dunne, J. P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M. J., Held, I. M., Jansen, M. F., John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Langenhorst, A. R., Legg, S., Liang, Z., McHugh, C., Radhakrishnan, A., Reichl, B. G., Rosati, T., Samuels, B. L., Shao, A., Stouffer, R., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Xiang, B., Zadeh, N., and Zhang, R.: The GFDL global ocean and sea ice model OM4.0: Model description and simulation features, J. Adv. Mod. Ear. Sys., 11, 3167–3211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001726, 2019.
Akitomo, K., Awaji, T., and Imasato, N: Open-ocean deep convection in the Weddell Sea: Two-dimensional numerical experiments with a nonhydrostatic model, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 42, 53–73, https://doi.org/10.1016/0967-0637(94)00035-Q, 1995.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Roach, L. A., Donohoe, A., and Ding, Q.: Impact of winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on Antarctic sea ice trends and variability, J. Climate, 34, 949–965, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0386.1, 2021.
Bushuk, M., Msadek, R., Winton, M., Vecchi, G., Yang, X., Rosati, A., and Gudgel, R.: Regional Arctic sea–ice prediction: potential versus operational seasonal forecast skill, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2721–2743, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4288-y, 2019.
Bushuk, M., Winton, M., Haumann, F. A., Delworth, T., Lu, F., Zhang, Y., Jia, L., Zhang, L., Cooke, W., Harrison, M., Hurlin, B., Johnson, N. C., Kapnick, S. B., McHugh, C., Murakami, H., Rosati, A., Tseng, K., Wittenberg, A. T., Yang, X., and Zeng, F.: Seasonal Prediction and Predictability of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice, J. Climate, 34, 6207–6233, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0965.1, 2021.
Carsey, F. D.: Microwave observation of the Weddell Polynya, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 2032–2044, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<2032:MOOTWP>2.0.CO;2, 1980.
Cavalieri, D. J., Parkinson, C. L., and Vinnikov, K. Y.: 30-Year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1970, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018031, 2003.
Cheon, W. G. and Gordon, A. L.: Open-ocean polynyas and deep convection in the Southern Ocean, Sci. Rep., 9, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43466-2, 2019.
Cheon, W. G., Park, Y. G., Toggweiler, J. R., and Lee, S. K.: The relationship of Weddell Polynya and open-ocean deep convection to the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44, 694–713, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-0112.1, 2014.
Cheon, W. G., Lee, S. K., Gordon, A. L., Liu, Y., Cho, C. B., and Park, J. J.: Replicating the 1970s' Weddell polynya using a coupled ocean-sea ice model with reanalysis surface flux fields, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5411–5418, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064364, 2015.
Crosta, X., Etourneau, J., Orme, L. C., Dalaiden, Q., Campagne, P., Swingedouw, D., Goosse, H., Massé, G., Miettinen, A., McKay, R. M., Dunbar, R. B., Escutia, C., and Ikehara, M.: Multi-decadal trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent driven by ENSO–SAM over the last 2000 years, Nat. Geosci., 14, 156–160, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00697-1, 2021.
de Lavergne, C., Palter, J. B., Galbraith, E. D., Bernardello, R., and Marinov, I.: Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 278–282, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2132, 2014.
Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., Adcroft, A., Bushuk, M., Chen, J.-H., Dunne, K. A., Ginoux, P., Gudgel, R., Hallberg, R. W., Harris, L., Harrison, M. J., Johnson, N., Kapnick, S. B., Lin, S.-J., Lu, F., Malyshev, S., Milly, P. C., Murakami, H., Naik, V., Pascale, S., Paynter, D., Rosati, A., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Underwood, S., Wittenberg, A. T., Xiang, B., Yang, X., Zeng, F., Zhang, H., Zhang, L., and Zhao, M.: SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection, J. Adv. Mod. Ear. Sys., 12, e2019MS001895, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001895, 2020.
Eade, R., Smith, D., Scaife, A., Wallace, E., Dunstone, N., Hermanson, L., and Robinson, N.: Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5620–5628, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061146, 2014.
Eayrs, C., Li, X., Raphael, M. N., and Holland, D. M.: Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change, Nat. Geosci., 14, 460–464, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00768-3, 2021.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Ferreira, D., Marshall, J., Bitz, C. M., Solomon, S., and Plumb, A.: Antarctic Ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: A two-time-scale problem, J. Climate, 28, 1206–1226, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1, 2015.
Fogt, R. L., Sleinkofer, A. M., Raphael, M. N., and Handcock, M. S.: A regime shift in seasonal total Antarctic sea ice extent in the twentieth century, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 54–62, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01254-9, 2022.
Francis, D., Eayrs, C., Cuesta, J., and Holland, D.: Polar cyclones at the origin of the reoccurrence of the Maud Rise Polynya in austral winter 2017, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 5251–5267, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030618, 2019.
Francis, D., Mattingly, K. S., Temimi, M., Massom, R., and Heil, P.: On the crucial role of atmospheric rivers in the two major Weddell Polynya events in 1973 and 2017 in Antarctica, Sci. Adv., 6, eabc2695, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc2695, 2020.
Gagné, M. È., Gillett, N. P., and Fyfe, J. C.: Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 50 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 90–95, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062231, 2015.
Gong, D. and Wang, S.: Definition of Antarctic oscillation index, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 459–462, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900003, 1999.
Good, S. A., Martin, M. J., and Rayner, N. A.: EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 6704–6716, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009067, 2013 (data available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/download.html, last access: 21 February 2022).
Goosse, H. and Fichefet, T.: Open-ocean convection and polynya formation in a large-scale ice-ocean model, Tellus A, 53, 94–111, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2001.01061.x, 2001.
Goosse, H. and Zunz, V.: Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback, The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014.
Gordon, A. L.: Deep antarctic convection west of Maud Rise, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 8, 600–612, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1978)008<0600:DACWOM>2.0.CO;2, 1978.
Gordon, A. L., Visbeck, M., and Comiso, J. C.: A possible link between the Weddell Polynya and the Southern Annular Mode, J. Climate, 20, 2558–2571, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4046.1, 2007.
Guemas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Mogensen, K., Keeley, S., and Tang, Y.: Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2813–2829, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2095-7, 2014.
Guemas, V., Chevallier, M., Déqué, M., Bellprat, O., and Doblas-Reyes, F.: Impact of sea ice initialization on sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill on seasonal timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3889–3896, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066626, 2016.
Hallberg, R.: Using a resolution function to regulate parameterizations of oceanic mesoscale eddy effects, Ocean Model., 72, 92–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.08.007, 2013.
Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., and Timmermann, R.: Weddell Sea anomalies: Excitation, propagation, and possible consequences, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038407, 2009.
Henley, B. J., Gergis, J., Karoly, D. J., Power, S., Kennedy, J., and Folland, C. K.: A tripole index for the interdecadal Pacific oscillation, Clim. Dynam., 45, 3077–3090, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1, 2015.
Hobbs, W. R., Massom, R., Stammerjohn, S., Reid, P., Williams, G., and Meier, W.: A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings, Global Planet. Change, 143, 228–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.008, 2016.
Holland, P. R. and Kwok, R.: Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift, Nat. Geosci., 5, 872–875, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1627, 2012.
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons, J. Climate, 30, 8179–8205, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1, 2017.
Killworth, P. D.: Deep convection in the world ocean, Rev. Geophys., 21, 1–26, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG021i001p00001, 1983.
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Eendo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Takahashi, K.: The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. Ser. II, 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015.
Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D.,Mouratiadou, I., Weindl, I., Bertram, C., Dietrich, J.-P., Luderer, G., Pehl, M., Pietzcker, R., Piontek, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Biewald, A., Bonsch, M., Giannousakis, A., Kreidenweis, U., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., Schultes, A., Schwanitz, J., Stevanovic, M., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fujimori, S., and Edenhofer, O.: Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): an energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century, Global Environ. Change, 42, 297–315, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015, 2017.
Li, X., Holland, D. M., Gerber, E. P., and Yoo, C.: Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice, Nature, 505, 538–542, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12945, 2014.
Marchi, S., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Zunz, V., Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., and Hawkins, E.: Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2775–2797, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2, 2019.
Martinson, D. G., Killworth, P. D., and Gordon, A. L.: A convective model for the Weddell Polynya, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 466–488, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<0466:ACMFTW>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Chung, C. T., Holland, M. M., DuVivier, A., Thompson, L., Yang, D., and Bitz, C. M.: Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9, 2019.
Meier, W. N., Gallaher, D., and Campbell, G. G.: New estimates of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent during September 1964 from recovered Nimbus I satellite imagery, The Cryosphere, 7, 699–705, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-699-2013, 2013.
Meier, W. N., Fetterer, F., Windnagel, A. K., and Stewart, J. S.: NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 4, Boulder, Colorado USA, National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.7265/efmz-2t65 (last access: 22 November 2022), 2021.
Morales Maqueda, M. A., Willmott, A. J., and Biggs, N. R. T.: Polynya dynamics: A review of observations and modeling, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG1004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002RG000116, 2004.
Morioka, Y. and Behera, S. K.: Remote and local processes controlling decadal sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC017036, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC017036, 2021.
Morioka, Y., Iovino, D., Masina, S., and Behera, S. K.: Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea, Sci. Rep., 9, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39421-w, 2019.
Morioka, Y., Iovino, D., Cipollone, A., Masina, S., and Behera, S. K.: Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization, Sci. Rep., 11, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91042-4, 2021.
Morioka, Y., Iovino, D., Cipollone, A., Masina, S., and Behera, S. K.: Decadal Sea Ice Prediction in the West Antarctic Seas with Ocean and Sea Ice Initializations, Comm. Earth Env., 3, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00529-z, 2022.
Murphy, E. J., Clarke, A., Abram, N. J., and Turner, J.: Variability of sea-ice in the northern Weddell Sea during the 20th century, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 4549–4572, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009511, 2014.
Orsi, A. H., Johnson, G. C., and Bullister, J. L.: Circulation, mixing, and production of Antarctic Bottom Water, Prog. Oceanogr., 43, 55–109, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-6611(99)00004-X, 1999.
Parkinson, C. L.: A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 14414–14423, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1906556116, 2019.
Polvani, L. M. and Smith, K. L.: Can natural variability explain observed Antarctic sea ice trends? New modeling evidence from CMIP5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3195–3199, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50578, 2013.
Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A., and Mehta, V.: Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia, Clim. Dynam., 15, 319–324, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284, 1999.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003 (data available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html, last access: 24 November 2022).
Riahi, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Aleluia Da Silva, L., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogel, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangonii, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview, Global Environ. Change, 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017.
Roach, L. A., Dörr, J., Holmes, C. R., Massonnet, F., Blockley, E. W., Notz, D., Rackow, T., Raphael, M. N., O'Farrell, S. P., Bailey, D. A., and Bitz, C. M.: Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086729, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086729, 2020.
Scaife, A. A. and Smith, D.: A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 28, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4, 2018.
Schlosser, E., Haumann, F. A., and Raphael, M. N.: Atmospheric influences on the anomalous 2016 Antarctic sea ice decay, The Cryosphere, 12, 1103–1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1103-2018, 2018.
Simpkins, G.: Record low Antarctic sea ice extent, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, 296, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00433-w, 2023.
Stuecker, M. F., Bitz, C. M., and Armour, K. C.: Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9008–9019, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074691, 2017.
Sun, S. and Eisenman, I.: Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity, Nat. Commun., 12, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z, 2021.
Titchner, H. A. and Rayner, N. A.: The Met Office Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature data set, version 2: 1. Sea ice concentrations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 2864–2889, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020316, 2014 (data available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst2/data/download.html, last access: 24 November 2022).
Thompson, D. W. and Wallace, J. M.: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability, J. Climate, 13, 1000–1016, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1000:AMITEC>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Turner, J., Hosking, J. S., Marshall, G. J., Phillips, T., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low, Clim. Dynam., 46, 2391–2402, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2708-9, 2016.
Turner, J., Phillips, T., Marshall, G. J., Hosking, J. S., Pope, J. O., Bracegirdle, T. J., and Deb, P.: Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6868–6875, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073656, 2017.
Turner, J., Guarino, M. V., Arnatt, J., Jena, B., Marshall, G. J., Phillips, T., Bajish, C. C., Clem, K., Wang, Z., Andersson, T., Murphy, E. J., and Cavanagh, R.: Recent decrease of summer sea ice in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087127, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087127, 2020.
Venegas, S. A. and Drinkwater, M. R.: Sea ice, atmosphere and upper ocean variability in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 16747–16765, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000594, 2001.
Wang, G., Hendon, H. H., Arblaster, J. M., Lim, E. P., Abhik, S., and Rensch, P.: Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low Antarctic sea-ice in 2016, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07689-7, 2019.
Yang, C.-Y., Liu, J., Hu, Y., Horton, R. M., Chen, L., and Cheng, X.: Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts, The Cryosphere, 10, 2429–2452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2429-2016, 2016.
Yang, J., Xiao, C., Liu, J., Li, S., and Qin, D.: Variability of Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 200 years, Sci. Bull., 66, 2394–2404, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.07.028, 2021.
Yang, X., Delworth, T. L., Zeng, F., Zhang, L., Cooke, W. F., Harrison, M. J., Rosati, A., Underwood, S., Compo, G. P., and McColl, C.: On the development of GFDL's decadal prediction system: Initialization approaches and retrospective forecast assessment, J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 13, e2021MS002529, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002529, 2021.
Yuan, N., Ding, M., Ludescher, and J., Bunde, A.: Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea, Sci. Rep., 7, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41096, 2017.
Yuan, X. and Martinson, D. G.: Antarctic sea ice extent variability and its global connectivity, J. Climate, 13, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1697:ASIEVA>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W., and Yang, X.: Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3, 2019.
Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W., Goosse, H., Bushuk, M., Morioka, Y., and Yang, X.: The dependence of internal multidecadal variability in the Southern Ocean on the ocean background mean state, J. Climate, 34, 1061–1080, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0049.1, 2021.
Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L., Kapnick, S., He, J., Cooke, W., Wittenberg, A. T., Johnson, N. C., Rosati, A., Yang, X., Lu, F., Bushuk, M., McHugh, C., Murakami, H., Zeng, F., Jia, L., Tseng, K., and Morioka, Y.: Roles of Meridional Overturning in Subpolar Southern Ocean SST Trends: Insights from Ensemble Simulations, J. Climate, 35, 1577–1596, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0466.1, 2022a.
Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L., Yang, X., Zeng, F., Lu, F., Morioka, Y., and Bushuk, M.: The relative role of the subsurface Southern Ocean in driving negative Antarctic Sea ice extent anomalies in 2016–2021, Comm. Earth Environ., 3, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00624-1, 2022b.
Zhao, M., Golaz, J.-C., Held, I. M., Guo, H., Balaji, V., Benson, R., Chen, J.-H., Chen, X., Donner, L. J., Dunne, J. P., Dunne, K., Durachta, J., Fan, S.-M., Freidenreich, S. M., Garner, S. T., Ginoux, P., Harris, L. M., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting, J. P., Langenhorst, A. R., Liang, Z., Lin, P., Lin, S.-J., Malyshev, S. L., Mason, E., Milly, P. C. D., Ming, Y., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D., Phillipps, P., Radhakrishnan, A., Ramaswamy, V., Robinson, T., Schwarzkopf, D., Seman, C. J., Shevliakova, E., Shen, Z., Shin, H., Silvers, L. G., Wilson, J. R., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., and Xiang, B.: The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation characteristics with prescribed SSTs, J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 10, 691–734, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001208, 2018a.
Zhao, M., Golaz, J.-C., Held, I. M., Guo, H., Balaji, V., Benson, R., Chen, J.-H., Chen, X., Donner, L. J., Dunne, J. P., Dunne, K., Durachta, J., Fan, S.-M., Freidenreich, S. M., Garner, S. T., Ginoux, P., Harris, L. M., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting, J. P., Langenhorst, A. R., Liang, Z., Lin, P., Lin, S.-J., Malyshev, S. L., Mason, E., Milly, P. C. D., Ming, Y., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D., Phillipps, P., Radhakrishnan, A., Ramaswamy, V., Robinson, T., Schwarzkopf, D., Seman, C. J., Shevliakova, E., Shen, Z., Shin, H., Silvers, L. G., Wilson, J. R., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., and Xiang, B.: The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies, J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 10, 735–769, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001209, 2018b.
Zunz, V., Goosse, H., and Dubinkina, S.: Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2267–2286, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2344-9, 2015.
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice extent shows multidecadal variations with its decrease in the 1980s and increase after the 2000s until 2015. Here we show that our climate model can predict the sea ice decrease by deep convection in the Southern Ocean and the sea ice increase by the surface wind variability. These results suggest that accurate simulation and prediction of subsurface ocean and atmosphere conditions are important for those of Antarctic sea ice variability on a multidecadal timescale.
Antarctic sea ice extent shows multidecadal variations with its decrease in the 1980s and...
