Articles | Volume 15, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 08 Sep 2021
| 08 Sep 2021
Downscaled surface mass balance in Antarctica: impacts of subsurface processes and large-scale atmospheric circulation
DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
DTU-Space, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Peter L. Langen
now at: iClimate, Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
Fredrik Boberg
DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
Rene Forsberg
DTU-Space, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Sebastian B. Simonsen
DTU-Space, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Peter Thejll
DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
Baptiste Vandecrux
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
Ruth Mottram
DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
Related authors
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firn, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcings datasets. Our findings suggest that under low emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, under a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Nicolaj Hansen, Andrew Orr, Xun Zou, Fredrik Boberg, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Ella Gilbert, Peter L. Langen, Matthew A. Lazzara, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Ruth Price, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Stuart Webster
The Cryosphere, 18, 2897–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated a melt event over the Ross Ice Shelf. We use regional climate models and a firn model to simulate the melt and compare the results with satellite data. We find that the firn model aligned well with observed melt days in certain parts of the ice shelf. The firn model had challenges accurately simulating the melt extent in the western sector. We identified potential reasons for these discrepancies, pointing to limitations in the models related to representing the cloud properties.
Anna Puggaard, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, Thomas Nagler, Stefan Scheiblauer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Louise S. Sørensen, Jan Wuite, and Anne M. Solgaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1108, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate models are currently the only source for assessing the melt volume on a global scale of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study compares the modeled melt volume with observations from weather stations and melt extent observed from ASCAT to assess the performance of the models. It highlights the importance of critically evaluating model outputs with high-quality satellite measurements to improve the understanding of variability among models.
Nicolaj Hansen, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Giorgio Spada, Daniele Melini, Rene Forsberg, Ruth Mottram, and Sebastian B. Simonsen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We use ICESat-2 to estimate the surface elevation change over Greenland and Antarctica in the period of 2018 to 2021. Numerical models have been used the compute the firn compaction and the vertical bedrock movement so non-mass-related elevation changes can be taken into account. We have made a parameterization of the surface density so we can convert the volume change to mass change. We find that Antarctica has lost 135.7±27.3 Gt per year, and the Greenland ice sheet 237.5±14.0 Gt per year.
Nicolaj Hansen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Andrew Orr, Niels Souverijns, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 16, 711–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over Antarctica. We used ice masks and data from five of the most used regional climate models and a common mask. We see large disagreement between the ice masks, which has a large impact on the surface mass balance, especially around the Antarctic Peninsula and some of the largest glaciers. We suggest a solution for creating a new, up-to-date, high-resolution ice mask that can be used in Antarctic modelling.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere, 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change in the surface mass balance for Antarctica is 420 Gt yr−1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr−1 (v3), and for Greenland it is −290 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-331, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of the future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change of the surface mass balance for Antarctica is +150 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −710 Gt yr−1 (v3) and for Greenland the numbers are −210 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1150 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Jonathan Ortved Melcher, Sune Halkjær, Peter Ditlevsen, Peter L. Langen, Guido Vettoretti, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Clim. Past, 21, 115–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new model that simulates Dansgaard–Oeschger events, dramatic and irregular climate shifts within past ice ages. The model consists of simplified equations inspired by ocean current dynamics. We fine-tune this model to capture the Dansgaard–Oeschger events with unprecedented accuracy, providing deeper insights into past climate patterns. This helps us understand and predict complex climate changes, aiding future climate change resilience efforts.
Mai Winstrup, Heidi Ranndal, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Robert S. Fausto, and Louise Sandberg Sørensen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5405–5428, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5405-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving. Here we present an annual series (2019–2022) of summer digital elevation models (PRODEMs) for the Greenland Ice Sheet margin, covering all outlet glaciers from the ice sheet. The PRODEMs are based on fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry. With their high spatial and temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will enable detailed studies of the changes in marginal ice sheet elevations.
Tim Enzlberger Jensen, Bjørnar Dale, Andreas Stokholm, René Forsberg, Alexandre Bresson, Nassim Zahzam, Alexis Bonnin, and Yannick Bidel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-511, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-511, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The availability of data from two airborne gravity campaigns using sensors based on both classical and quantum technology is presented. Data is made available by the European Space Agency as raw, intermediate and final data products. Here raw refers to the sensor output while final refers to the along-track gravity estimates. This makes the data relevant for users interested in applications ranging from data processing and quantum studies to geophysical studies using gravity observations.
Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Shawn Marshall, and Julie Z. Miller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2563, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
We used L-band observations from the SMAP mission to quantify the surface and subsurface liquid water amounts (LWA) in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. The algorithm is described, and the validation results are provided. The results demonstrate the potential for creating an LWA data product across GrIS, which will advance our understanding of ice sheet physical processes for better projection of Greenland’s contribution to global sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firn, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcings datasets. Our findings suggest that under low emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, under a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Kirk M. Scanlan, Anja Rutishauser, and Sebastian B. Simonsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2832, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we investigate how to interpret Greenland surface roughness derived from reflected radar altimetry signals. Based on a comparison to conventional laser altimetry results, we 1) define a new mapping between the radar surface echo power strengths and surface roughness and 2) contextualize the horizontal lengths over which this roughness is representative. This work provides critical insight into how these observations integrate into Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance modeling.
Renée M. Fredensborg Hansen, Henriette Skourup, Eero Rinne, Arttu Jutila, Isobel R. Lawrence, Andrew Shepherd, Knut V. Høyland, Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Jeremy Wilkinson, Gaelle Veyssiere, Donghui Yi, René Forsberg, and Taniâ G. D. Casal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2854, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In December 2022, an airborne campaign collected unprecedented coincident multi-frequency radar and lidar data over sea ice along a CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 (CRYO2ICE) orbit in the Weddell Sea useful for evaluating microwave penetration. We found limited snow penetration at Ka- and Ku-bands, with significant contributions from the air-snow interface, contradicting traditional assumptions. These findings challenge current methods for comparing air- and spaceborne altimeter estimates of sea ice.
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Bo Christiansen, Lea Schneider, and Peter Thejll
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-41, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We study the climatic signal, with focus on volcanic-induced shocks, in two long annual records of wine production quantity (spanning 1444–1786) from present-day Luxembourg, close to the northern limit of viticulture in Europe. Highly significant wine production declines are found during years following major volcanic events. Furthermore, warmer and drier climate conditions favoured wine production, with spring and summer conditions being the most important ones.
Nicolaj Hansen, Andrew Orr, Xun Zou, Fredrik Boberg, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Ella Gilbert, Peter L. Langen, Matthew A. Lazzara, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Ruth Price, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Stuart Webster
The Cryosphere, 18, 2897–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated a melt event over the Ross Ice Shelf. We use regional climate models and a firn model to simulate the melt and compare the results with satellite data. We find that the firn model aligned well with observed melt days in certain parts of the ice shelf. The firn model had challenges accurately simulating the melt extent in the western sector. We identified potential reasons for these discrepancies, pointing to limitations in the models related to representing the cloud properties.
Anna Puggaard, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, Thomas Nagler, Stefan Scheiblauer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Louise S. Sørensen, Jan Wuite, and Anne M. Solgaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1108, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate models are currently the only source for assessing the melt volume on a global scale of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study compares the modeled melt volume with observations from weather stations and melt extent observed from ASCAT to assess the performance of the models. It highlights the importance of critically evaluating model outputs with high-quality satellite measurements to improve the understanding of variability among models.
Anja Rutishauser, Kirk M. Scanlan, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nanna B. Karlsson, Nicolas Jullien, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Robert S. Fausto, and Penelope How
The Cryosphere, 18, 2455–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet interior is covered by a layer of firn, which is important for surface meltwater runoff and contributions to global sea-level rise. Here, we combine airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry measurements to delineate vertically homogeneous and heterogeneous firn. Our results reveal changes in firn between 2011–2019, aligning well with known climatic events. This approach can be used to outline firn areas primed for significantly changing future meltwater runoff.
Xiaofeng Wang, Lu An, Peter L. Langen, and Rongxing Li
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-1-2024, 691–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-2024-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-2024-691-2024, 2024
Aslak Grinsted, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Ruth Mottram, Anne Munck Solgaard, Joachim Mathiesen, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 1947–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice fracture can cause glacier crevassing and calving. These natural hazards can also modulate the flow and evolution of ice sheets. In a new study, we use a new high-resolution dataset to determine a new failure criterion for glacier ice. Surprisingly, the strength of ice depends on the mode of deformation, and this has potential implications for the currently used flow law of ice.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Sindhu Vudayagiri, Bo Vinther, Johannes Freitag, Peter L. Langen, and Thomas Blunier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-237, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the formation of ice from natural snowfall air is occluded in polar ice. The amount of air occluded (total air content) mainly reflects air pressure when the air is occluded and is therefore a proxy for elevation. However, there are several complications, such as melt, changes in firn structure and air pressure variability. We measured total air content in the RECAP ice core on the Renland Icecap in East Greenland. The core covers the period back to 121 thousand years before present.
Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Rasmus Bahbah, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Natalia Havelund Andersen, Jade Bowling, Noel Gourmelen, Alex Horton, Nanna B. Karlsson, Amber Leeson, Jennifer Maddalena, Malcolm McMillan, Anne Solgaard, and Birgit Wessel
The Cryosphere, 18, 505–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Under the right topographic and hydrological conditions, lakes may form beneath the large ice sheets. Some of these subglacial lakes are active, meaning that they periodically drain and refill. When a subglacial lake drains rapidly, it may cause the ice surface above to collapse, and here we investigate how to improve the monitoring of active subglacial lakes in Greenland by monitoring how their associated collapse basins change over time.
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Bo Christiansen, Jan Esper, Heli Huhtamaa, Lotta Leijonhufvud, Christian Pfister, Andrea Seim, Martin Karl Skoglund, and Peter Thejll
Clim. Past, 19, 2463–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the climate signal in long harvest series from across Europe between the 16th and 18th centuries. The climate–harvest yield relationship is found to be relatively weak but regionally consistent and similar in strength and sign to modern climate–harvest yield relationships. The strongest climate–harvest yield patterns are a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, a winter temperature and precipitation signal in Switzerland, and spring temperature signals in Spain.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Jason E. Box, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, Nicolas Bayou, William T. Colgan, Nicolas J. Cullen, Robert S. Fausto, Dominik Haas-Artho, Achim Heilig, Derek A. Houtz, Penelope How, Ionut Iosifescu Enescu, Nanna B. Karlsson, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Daniel McGrath, Noah P. Molotch, Bianca Perren, Maiken K. Revheim, Anja Rutishauser, Kevin Sampson, Martin Schneebeli, Sandy Starkweather, Simon Steffen, Jeff Weber, Patrick J. Wright, Henry Jay Zwally, and Konrad Steffen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5467–5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) comprises stations that have been monitoring the weather on the Greenland Ice Sheet for over 30 years. These stations are being replaced by newer ones maintained by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). The historical data were reprocessed to improve their quality, and key information about the weather stations has been compiled. This augmented dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/VVXGUT (Steffen et al., 2022).
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Nicolaj Hansen, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Giorgio Spada, Daniele Melini, Rene Forsberg, Ruth Mottram, and Sebastian B. Simonsen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We use ICESat-2 to estimate the surface elevation change over Greenland and Antarctica in the period of 2018 to 2021. Numerical models have been used the compute the firn compaction and the vertical bedrock movement so non-mass-related elevation changes can be taken into account. We have made a parameterization of the surface density so we can convert the volume change to mass change. We find that Antarctica has lost 135.7±27.3 Gt per year, and the Greenland ice sheet 237.5±14.0 Gt per year.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Ioanna Karagali, Magnus Barfod Suhr, Ruth Mottram, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Gorm Dybkjær, Darren Ghent, and Jacob L. Høyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ice surface temperature (IST) products were used to develop the first multi-sensor, gap-free Level 4 (L4) IST product of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) for 2012, when a significant melt event occurred. For the melt season, mean IST was −15 to −1 °C, and almost the entire GIS experienced at least 1 to 5 melt days. Inclusion of the L4 IST to a surface mass budget (SMB) model improved simulated surface temperatures during the key onset of the melt season, where biases are typically large.
Michael J. MacFerrin, C. Max Stevens, Baptiste Vandecrux, Edwin D. Waddington, and Waleed Abdalati
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The vast majority of the Greenland ice sheet's surface is covered by pluriannual snow, also called firn, that accumulates year after year and is compressed into glacial ice. The thickness of the firn layer changes through time and responds to the surface climate. We present continuous measurement of the firn compaction at various depths for eight sites. The dataset will help to evaluate firn models, interpret ice cores, and convert remotely sensed ice sheet surface height change to mass loss.
Nicolaj Hansen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Andrew Orr, Niels Souverijns, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 16, 711–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over Antarctica. We used ice masks and data from five of the most used regional climate models and a common mask. We see large disagreement between the ice masks, which has a large impact on the surface mass balance, especially around the Antarctic Peninsula and some of the largest glaciers. We suggest a solution for creating a new, up-to-date, high-resolution ice mask that can be used in Antarctic modelling.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere, 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change in the surface mass balance for Antarctica is 420 Gt yr−1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr−1 (v3), and for Greenland it is −290 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
Robert S. Fausto, Dirk van As, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Baptiste Vandecrux, Michele Citterio, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, William Colgan, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Niels J. Korsgaard, Signe H. Larsen, Søren Nielsen, Allan Ø. Pedersen, Christopher L. Shields, Anne M. Solgaard, and Jason E. Box
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3819–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) has been measuring climate and ice sheet properties since 2007. Here, we present our data product from weather and ice sheet measurements from a network of automatic weather stations mainly located in the melt area of the ice sheet. Currently the PROMICE automatic weather station network includes 25 instrumented sites in Greenland.
Ulas Im, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, Peter L. Langen, Joshua P. French, Rashed Mahmood, Manu A. Thomas, Knut von Salzen, Daniel C. Thomas, Cynthia H. Whaley, Zbigniew Klimont, Henrik Skov, and Jørgen Brandt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10413–10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Future (2015–2050) simulations of the aerosol burdens and their radiative forcing and climate impacts over the Arctic under various emission projections show that although the Arctic aerosol burdens are projected to decrease significantly by 10 to 60 %, regardless of the magnitude of aerosol reductions, surface air temperatures will continue to increase by 1.9–2.6 ℃, while sea-ice extent will continue to decrease, implying reductions of greenhouse gases are necessary to mitigate climate change.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Ross Edwards, Martin Olesen, Ruth Mottram, Gabriel Lewis, Christian Terkelsen Holme, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Mikkel Schmidt, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Bo Vinther, Anders Svensson, Nanna Karlsson, Jason E. Box, Sepp Kipfstuhl, and Paul Vallelonga
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-337, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We have reconstructed accumulation in 6 firn cores and 8 snow cores in Northern Greenland and compared with a regional Climate model over Greenland. We find the model underestimate precipitation especially in north-eastern part of the ice cap- an important finding if aiming to reconstruct surface mass balance.
Temperatures at 10 meters depth at 6 sites in Greenland were also determined and show a significant warming since the 1990's of 0.9 to 2.5 °C.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-331, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of the future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change of the surface mass balance for Antarctica is +150 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −710 Gt yr−1 (v3) and for Greenland the numbers are −210 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1150 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Ruth Mottram, Peter L. Langen, Robert S. Fausto, Martin Olesen, C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Amber Leeson, Stefan Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Sergey Marchenko, Ward van Pelt, Colin R. Meyer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Achim Heilig, Samira Samimi, Shawn Marshall, Horst Machguth, Michael MacFerrin, Masashi Niwano, Olivia Miller, Clifford I. Voss, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 14, 3785–3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the vast interior of the Greenland ice sheet, snow accumulates into a thick and porous layer called firn. Each summer, the firn retains part of the meltwater generated at the surface and buffers sea-level rise. In this study, we compare nine firn models traditionally used to quantify this retention at four sites and evaluate their performance against a set of in situ observations. We highlight limitations of certain model designs and give perspectives for future model development.
Marco Meloni, Jerome Bouffard, Tommaso Parrinello, Geoffrey Dawson, Florent Garnier, Veit Helm, Alessandro Di Bella, Stefan Hendricks, Robert Ricker, Erica Webb, Ben Wright, Karina Nielsen, Sanggyun Lee, Marcello Passaro, Michele Scagliola, Sebastian Bjerregaard Simonsen, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, David Brockley, Steven Baker, Sara Fleury, Jonathan Bamber, Luca Maestri, Henriette Skourup, René Forsberg, and Loretta Mizzi
The Cryosphere, 14, 1889–1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1889-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript aims to describe the evolutions which have been implemented in the new CryoSat Ice processing chain Baseline-D and the validation activities carried out in different domains such as sea ice, land ice and hydrology.
This new CryoSat processing Baseline-D will maximise the uptake and use of CryoSat data by scientific users since it offers improved capability for monitoring the complex and multiscale changes over the cryosphere.
Achim Heilig, Olaf Eisen, Martin Schneebeli, Michael MacFerrin, C. Max Stevens, Baptiste Vandecrux, and Konrad Steffen
The Cryosphere, 14, 385–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-385-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-385-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the spatial representativeness of point observations of snow accumulation in SW Greenland. Such analyses have rarely been conducted but are necessary to link regional-scale observations from, e.g., remote-sensing data to firn cores and snow pits. The presented data reveal a low regional variability in density but snow depth can vary significantly. It is necessary to combine pits with spatial snow depth data to increase the regional representativeness of accumulation observations.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Michael MacFerrin, Horst Machguth, William T. Colgan, Dirk van As, Achim Heilig, C. Max Stevens, Charalampos Charalampidis, Robert S. Fausto, Elizabeth M. Morris, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Lora Koenig, Lynn N. Montgomery, Clément Miège, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 13, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-845-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-845-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The perennial snow, or firn, on the Greenland ice sheet each summer stores part of the meltwater formed at the surface, buffering the ice sheet’s contribution to sea level. We gathered observations of firn air content, indicative of the space available in the firn to retain meltwater, and find that this air content remained stable in cold regions of the firn over the last 65 years but recently decreased significantly in western Greenland.
Ruth Mottram, Kristian Pagh Nielsen, Emily Gleeson, and Xiaohua Yang
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 323–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-323-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-323-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The HARMONIE weather forecasting model is used successfully in Greenland, but there are some problems over the ice sheet due to the lack of realistic glacier surface characteristics. By introducing a correction to the model, preventing glacier surface temperatures over 0 °C, we improve both 2 m air temperature and the surface winds (both strength and direction) forecast by the model.
We also identify other corrections needed before HARMONIE can be used for climate and ice sheet modelling.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Sverrir Guðmundsson, Peter L. Langen, Finnur Pálsson, Ruth Mottram, Simon Gascoin, and Helgi Björnsson
The Cryosphere, 11, 1665–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1665-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The regional climate model HIRHAM5 is evaluated over Vatnajökull, Iceland, using automatic weather stations and mass balance observations from 1995 to 2014. From this we asses whether the model can be used to reconstruct the mass balance of the glacier. We find that the simulated energy balance is underestimated overall, but it has been improved by using a new albedo scheme. The specific mass balance is reconstructed back to 1980, thus expanding on the observational records of the mass balance.
Johan Nilsson, Alex Gardner, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, and Rene Forsberg
The Cryosphere, 10, 2953–2969, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2953-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we present a new processing methodology for retrieving surface elevations and elevation changes over glaciated terrain from CryoSat-2 data. The new methodology has been shown to be less sensitive to changes in near-surface dielectric properties and provides improved elevation and elevation change retrievals. This methodology has been applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet to provide an updated volume change estimate for the period of 2011 to 2015.
Rasmus A. Pedersen, Peter L. Langen, and Bo M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 12, 1907–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1907-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Using climate model experiments, we investigate the causes of the Eemian (125 000 years ago) warming in Greenland. Sea ice loss and sea surface warming prolong the impact of the summer insolation increase, causing warming throughout the year. We find potential for ice sheet mass loss in the north and southwestern parts of Greenland. Our simulations indicate that the direct impact of the insolation, rather than the indirect effect of the warmer ocean, is the dominant cause of ice sheet melt.
J. Nilsson, L. Sandberg Sørensen, V. R. Barletta, and R. Forsberg
The Cryosphere, 9, 139–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-139-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this study is to determine and quantify the impact of different regionalization schemes on surface elevation changes, and how they affect the estimated spread in mass balance of Arctic ice caps and glaciers. The study found that the choice of regionalization has an important effect in regions with maritime climate and high variability in elevation change. In these areas the spread in mass balance was in many cases larger than the estimated errors of the individual methods.
K. Lindbäck, R. Pettersson, S. H. Doyle, C. Helanow, P. Jansson, S. S. Kristensen, L. Stenseng, R. Forsberg, and A. L. Hubbard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 331–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-331-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-331-2014, 2014
J. F. Levinsen, K. Khvorostovsky, F. Ticconi, A. Shepherd, R. Forsberg, L. S. Sørensen, A. Muir, N. Pie, D. Felikson, T. Flament, R. Hurkmans, G. Moholdt, B. Gunter, R. C. Lindenbergh, and M. Kleinherenbrink
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-5433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-5433-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
V. R. Barletta, L. S. Sørensen, and R. Forsberg
The Cryosphere, 7, 1411–1432, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1411-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1411-2013, 2013
H. C. Steen-Larsen, S. J. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, B. Stenni, C. Risi, H. Sodemann, D. Balslev-Clausen, T. Blunier, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. D. Ellehøj, S. Falourd, A. Grindsted, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, T. Popp, S. Sheldon, S. B. Simonsen, J. Sjolte, J. P. Steffensen, P. Sperlich, A. E. Sveinbjörnsdóttir, B. M. Vinther, and J. W. C. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4815–4828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4815-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4815-2013, 2013
P. Fretwell, H. D. Pritchard, D. G. Vaughan, J. L. Bamber, N. E. Barrand, R. Bell, C. Bianchi, R. G. Bingham, D. D. Blankenship, G. Casassa, G. Catania, D. Callens, H. Conway, A. J. Cook, H. F. J. Corr, D. Damaske, V. Damm, F. Ferraccioli, R. Forsberg, S. Fujita, Y. Gim, P. Gogineni, J. A. Griggs, R. C. A. Hindmarsh, P. Holmlund, J. W. Holt, R. W. Jacobel, A. Jenkins, W. Jokat, T. Jordan, E. C. King, J. Kohler, W. Krabill, M. Riger-Kusk, K. A. Langley, G. Leitchenkov, C. Leuschen, B. P. Luyendyk, K. Matsuoka, J. Mouginot, F. O. Nitsche, Y. Nogi, O. A. Nost, S. V. Popov, E. Rignot, D. M. Rippin, A. Rivera, J. Roberts, N. Ross, M. J. Siegert, A. M. Smith, D. Steinhage, M. Studinger, B. Sun, B. K. Tinto, B. C. Welch, D. Wilson, D. A. Young, C. Xiangbin, and A. Zirizzotti
The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers
Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone
Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier
A model framework for atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange and the associated isotope effects at Dome Argus, Antarctica – Part 1: The diurnal changes
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations?
Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation
Age-depth distribution in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, from three decades of radar surveys
A physics-based Antarctic melt detection technique: combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, radiative-transfer modeling, and firn modeling
Assessing the sensitivity of the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, to basal melt and calving
Brief communication: Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of Astrolabe Glacier (Adélie Coast, Antarctica) derived from satellite imagery
Detecting Holocene retreat and readvance in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica: assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith and Kohler region of West Antarctica
A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the last interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
ISMIP6-based Antarctic Projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves
Oceanic gateways in Antarctica – Impact of relative sea-level change on sub-shelf melt
Englacial architecture of Lambert Glacier, East Antarctica
Mass changes of the northern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet derived from repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar acquisitions for the period 2013–2017
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Stratigraphic noise and its potential drivers across the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry
Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model
Statistically parameterizing and evaluating a positive degree-day model to estimate surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022
Widespread slowdown in thinning rates of West Antarctic ice shelves
Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations
Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?
Cosmogenic-nuclide data from Antarctic nunataks can constrain past ice sheet instabilities
Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Mathieu Morlighem, Huw Horgan, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
The Cryosphere, 19, 107–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for predicting ice sheet change. Field measurements show clear intra-annual variations in ice flow; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. We show that local perturbations in basal melt can have a significant impact on ice flow speed, but a combination of forcings is likely driving the observed variability in ice flow.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Allison M. Chartrand, Ian M. Howat, Ian R. Joughin, and Benjamin E. Smith
The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses high-resolution remote-sensing data to show that shrinking of the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf (floating extension) is exacerbated by several sub-ice-shelf meltwater channels that form as the glacier transitions from full contact with the seafloor to fully floating. In mapping these channels, the position of the transition zone, and thinning rates of the Thwaites Glacier, this work elucidates important processes driving its rapid contribution to sea level rise.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Tianming Ma, Zhuang Jiang, Minghu Ding, Pengzhen He, Yuansheng Li, Wenqian Zhang, and Lei Geng
The Cryosphere, 18, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed a box model to evaluate the isotope effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange at Dome A, Antarctica. The results show clear and invisible diurnal changes in surface snow isotopes under summer and winter conditions, respectively. The model also predicts that the annual net effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange would be overall enrichments in snow isotopes since the effects in summer appear to be greater than those in winter at the study site.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Christian Wirths, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
The Cryosphere, 18, 4435–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the influence of several regional climate models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet when applied as forcing for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Our study shows that the choice of regional climate model forcing results in uncertainties of around a tenth of those in future sea level rise projections and also affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
W. Roger Buck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4165–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Standard theory predicts that the edge of an ice shelf should bend downward. Satellite observations show that the edges of many ice shelves bend upward. A new theory for ice shelf bending is developed that, for the first time, includes the kind of vertical variations in ice flow properties expected for ice shelves. Upward bending of shelf edges is predicted as long as the ice surface is very cold and the ice flow properties depend strongly on temperature.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Steven Franke, Daniel Steinhage, Veit Helm, Alexandra M. Zuhr, Julien A. Bodart, Olaf Eisen, and Paul Bons
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2349, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use radar technology to study the internal architecture of the ice sheet in western DML, East Antarctica. We identified and dated nine internal reflection horizons (IRHs), revealing important information about the ice sheet's history and dynamics. Some IRHs can be linked to past volcanic eruptions and are of similar age to IRHs detected in other parts of Antarctica. Our findings enhance our understanding of ice sheet behaviour and aid in developing better models for predicting future changes.
Marissa E. Dattler, Brooke Medley, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 18, 3613–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an algorithm based on combining models and satellite observations to identify the presence of surface melt on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We find that this method works similarly to previous methods by assessing 13 sites and the Larsen C ice shelf. Unlike previous methods, this algorithm is based on physical parameters, and updates to this method could allow the meltwater present on the Antarctic Ice Sheet to be quantified instead of simply detected.
Lawrence A. Bird, Felicity S. McCormack, Johanna Beckmann, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2060, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vanderford Glacier is the fastest retreating glacier in East Antarctica and may have important implications for future ice loss from the Aurora Subglacial Basin. Our ice sheet model simulations suggest that grounding line retreat is driven by sub-ice shelf basal melting, where warm ocean waters melt ice close the grounding line. We show that current estimates of basal melt are likely too low, highlighting the need for improved estimates and direct measurements of basal melt in the region.
Christoph Welling and The RNO-G Collaboration
The Cryosphere, 18, 3433–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report on the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echoes from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3067–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The recent calving of Astrolabe Glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical-satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favoured the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Joanne S. Johnson, John Woodward, Ian Nesbitt, Kate Winter, Seth Campbell, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Scott Braddock, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda Hall, Dylan H. Rood, and Greg Balco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1452, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Determining where and when the Antarctic ice sheet was smaller than present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Here we use ice sheet model outputs and field data (geological and glaciological observations, bedrock samples and ground-penetrating radar from subglacial ridges) to assess the suitability for drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, West Antarctica. We find that no sites are perfect, but two are feasible, with the most suitable being Winkie Nunatak.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Heather Louise Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith and Kohler Region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10%, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of ‘ice piracy’ hasn’t previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 ka by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~10,000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to present of 9.2 to 26.5 meters equivalent sea-level relative to present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing ice problem.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Helene L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, and Mira Adhikari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century, under a range of future climates, varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that, under stronger warming scenarios, ocean temperatures increases and more snow falls on the ice sheet. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melting driven loss exceeds snowfall driven gains, so that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that variations in sea level alone can significantly impact the melting rates of ice shelves.
Rebecca J. Sanderson, Kate Winter, S. Louise Callard, Felipe Napoleoni, Neil Ross, Tom A. Jordan, and Robert G. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 17, 4853–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-penetrating radar allows us to explore the internal structure of glaciers and ice sheets to constrain past and present ice-flow conditions. In this paper, we examine englacial layers within the Lambert Glacier in East Antarctica using a quantitative layer tracing tool. Analysis reveals that the ice flow here has been relatively stable, but evidence for former fast flow along a tributary suggests that changes have occurred in the past and could change again in the future.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nora Hirsch, Alexandra Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Remi Dallmayr, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 17, 4207–4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes from firn cores provide valuable information on past climates, yet their utility is hampered by stratigraphic noise, i.e. the irregular deposition and wind-driven redistribution of snow. We found stratigraphic noise on the Antarctic Plateau to be related to the local accumulation rate, snow surface roughness and slope inclination, which can guide future decisions on sampling locations and thus increase the resolution of climate reconstructions from low-accumulation areas.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Yaowen Zheng, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, Ghislain Picard, and Marion Leduc-Leballeur
The Cryosphere, 17, 3667–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Positive degree-day (PDD) schemes are widely used in many Antarctic numerical ice sheet models. However, the PDD approach has not been systematically explored for its application in Antarctica. We have constructed a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed PDD (dist-PDD) model and assessed its accuracy. We suggest that an appropriately parameterized dist-PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Laurie Padman, Emilie Klein, Peter D. Bromirski, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 2585–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica's ice shelves (the floating extension of the ice sheet) help regulate ice flow. As ice shelves thin or lose contact with the bedrock, the upstream ice tends to accelerate, resulting in increased mass loss. Here, we use an ice sheet model to simulate the effect of seasonal sea surface height variations and see if we can reproduce observed seasonal variability of ice velocity on the ice shelf. When correctly parameterised, the model fits the observations well.
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt, Greg Balco, Hannah Buchband, and Perry Spector
The Cryosphere, 17, 1623–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the use of multimillion-year exposure ages from Antarctic bedrock outcrops to benchmark ice sheet model predictions and thereby infer ice sheet sensitivity to warm climates. We describe a new approach for model–data comparison, highlight an example where observational data are used to distinguish end-member models, and provide guidance for targeted sampling around Antarctica that can improve understanding of ice sheet response to climate warming in the past and future.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Cited articles
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Bell, R. E., Banwell, A. F., Trusel, L. D., and Kingslake, J.: Antarctic
surface hydrology and impacts on ice-sheet mass balance, Nat. Clim.
Change, 8, 1044–1052, 2018. a
Boberg, F., Mottram, R., Hansen, N., Yang, S., and Langen, P. L.: Higher mass loss over Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets projected in CMIP6 than CMIP5 by high resolution regional downscaling EC-Earth, The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-331, 2020. a
Boening, C., Lebsock, M., Landerer, F., and Stephens, G.: Snowfall-driven mass change on the East Antarctic ice sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053316, 2012. a
Calonne, N., Geindreau, C., Flin, F., Morin, S., Lesaffre, B., Rolland du
Roscoat, S., and Charrier, P.: 3-D image-based numerical computations of snow
permeability: links to specific surface area, density, and microstructural
anisotropy, The Cryosphere, 6, 939–951, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-939-2012, 2012. a
Christensen, O., Gutowski, W., Nikulin, G., and Legutke, S.: CORDEX Archive
design, Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Meteorological Institute. Technical Report, available at: https://is-enes-data.github.io/cordex_archive_specifications.pdf (last access: May 2020), 2014. a
Colbeck, S.: A theory for water flow through a layered snowpack, Water Resour. Res., 11, 261–266, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR011i002p00261, 1975. a
Coléou, C. and Lesaffre, B.: Irreducible water saturation in snow:
experimental results in a cold laboratory, Ann. Glaciol., 26, 64–68, 1998. a
Dalaiden, Q., Goosse, H., Lenaerts, J. T., Cavitte, M. G., and Henderson, N.:
Future Antarctic snow accumulation trend is dominated by atmospheric
synoptic-scale events, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 1–9, 2020. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, 2011. a
Eerola, K.: About the performance of HIRLAM version 7.0, Hirlam Newslett., 51, 93–102, 2006. a
Feser, F., Rockel, B., von Storch, H., Winterfeldt, J., and Zahn, M.: Regional climate models add value to global model data: a review and selected
examples, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1181–1192, 2011. a
Fettweis, X., Hofer, S., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Amory, C., Aoki, T., Berends, C. J., Born, A., Box, J. E., Delhasse, A., Fujita, K., Gierz, P., Goelzer, H., Hanna, E., Hashimoto, A., Huybrechts, P., Kapsch, M.-L., King, M. D., Kittel, C., Lang, C., Langen, P. L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Liston, G. E., Lohmann, G., Mernild, S. H., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Mottram, R. H., Niwano, M., Noël, B., Ryan, J. C., Smith, A., Streffing, J., Tedesco, M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M., van de Wal, R. S. W., van Kampenhout, L., Wilton, D., Wouters, B., Ziemen, F., and Zolles, T.: GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020. a
Fogt, R. L. and Marshall, G. J.: The Southern Annular Mode: variability,
trends, and climate impacts across the Southern Hemisphere, Wiley
Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 11, e652, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.652, 2020. a, b, c
Fogt, R. L., Goergens, C. A., Jones, J. M., Schneider, D. P., Nicolas, J. P.,
Bromwich, D. H., and Dusselier, H. E.: A twentieth century perspective on
summer Antarctic pressure change and variability and contributions from
tropical SSTs and ozone depletion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9918–9927, 2017. a
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013. a
Fyke, J., Lenaerts, J. T. M., and Wang, H.: Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability, The Cryosphere, 11, 2595–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, 2017. a
Graf, W. and Oerter, H.: Density, δ18O, deuterium, and tritium of firn core FRI14C90_336, PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.548629, 2006. a, b
Griggs, J. and Bamber, J.: Antarctic ice-shelf thickness from satellite radar
altimetry, J. Glaciol., 57, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311796905659, 2011. a
Hall, A. and Visbeck, M.: Synchronous variability in the Southern Hemisphere
atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean resulting from the annular mode, J. Climate, 15, 3043–3057, 2002. a
Hansen, N., Langen, P. L., Boberg, F., Forsberg, R., Simonsen, S. B., Thejll, P., Vandercrux, B., and Mottram, R.: Downscaled surface mass balance in Antarctica: impacts of subsurface processes and large-scale atmospheric circulation, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5005265, 2021. a
Hermann, M., Box, J. E., Fausto, R. S., Colgan, W. T., Langen, P. L., Mottram, R., Wuite, J., Noël, B., van den Broeke, M. R., and van As, D.:
Application of PROMICE Q-transect in situ accumulation and ablation
measurements (2000–2017) to constrain mass balance at the southern tip of
the Greenland Ice Sheet, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 1235–1256, 2018. a
Hui, F., Ci, T., Cheng, X., Scambo, T. A., Liu, Y., Zhang, Y., Chi, Z., Huang, H., Wang, X., Wang, F., Zhao, C., Jin, Z., and Wang, K.: Mapping blue-ice areas in Antarctica using ETM+ and MODIS data, Ann. Glaciol., 55, 129–137, 2014. a
Irving, D. and Simmonds, I.: A new method for identifying the Pacific–South
American pattern and its influence on regional climate variability, J.
Climate, 29, 6109–6125, 2016. a
Kaspers, K. A., van de Wal, R. S. W., van den Broeke, M. R., Schwander, J., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M.: Model calculations of the age of firn air across the Antarctic continent, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 1365–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-4-1365-2004, 2004. a
Kim, B.-H., Seo, K.-W., Eom, J., Chen, J., and Wilson, C. R.: Antarctic ice
mass variations from 1979 to 2017 driven by anomalous precipitation
accumulation, Scient. Rep., 10, 1–9, 2020. a
Kingslake, J., Ely, J. C., Das, I., and Bell, R. E.: Widespread movement of
meltwater onto and across Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 544, 349–352, 2017. a
Kittel, C., Amory, C., Agosta, C., Jourdain, N. C., Hofer, S., Delhasse, A., Doutreloup, S., Huot, P.-V., Lang, C., Fichefet, T., and Fettweis, X.: Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 15, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, 2021. a
Koenig, L. and Montgomery, L.: Surface Mass Balance and Snow Depth on Sea Ice
Working Group (SUMup) snow density subdataset, Greenland and Antartica, Arctic Data Center [data set],
1950–2018, https://doi.org/10.18739/A26D5PB2S, 2019. a, b
Langen, P. L., Mottram, R. H., Christensen, J. H., Boberg, F., Rodehacke, C. B., Stendel, M., van As, D., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Mortensen, J., Rysgaard, S., Petersen, D., Svendsen, K. H., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., and Cappelen, J.: Quantifying energy and mass fluxes controlling Godthåbsfjord freshwater input in a 5-km simulation (1991–2012), J. Climate, 28, 3694–3713, 2015. a, b, c, d
Langen, P. L., Fausto, R. S., Vandecrux, B., Mottram, R. H., and Box, J. E.:
Liquid water flow and retention on the Greenland ice sheet in the regional
climate model HIRHAM5: Local and large-scale impacts, Front. Earth Sci., 4, 110, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00110, 2017. a, b, c
Lenaerts, J. T., Medley, B., van den Broeke, M. R., and Wouters, B.: Observing and modeling ice sheet surface mass balance, Rev. Geophys., 57,
376–420, 2019. a
Lucas-Picher, P., Wulff-Nielsen, M., Christensen, J. H.,
Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Mottram, R., and Simonsen, S. B.: Very high
resolution regional climate model simulations over Greenland: Identifying
added value, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D02108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016267, 2012. a, b
Marshall, G.: The Climate Data Guide: Marshall Southern Annular Mode (SAM)
Index (Station-based), Last modified 19 Mar 2018, edited by: National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff, available at:
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/marshall-southern-annular-mode-sam-index-station-based
(last access: February 2021), 2018. a
Marshall, G. J. and Thompson, D. W.: The signatures of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability in Antarctic surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3276–3289, 2016. a
Medley, B. and Thomas, E.: Increased snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet
mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise, Nat. Climate Change, 9, 34–39,
2019. a
Medley, B., Neumann, T. A., Zwally, H. J., and Smith, B. E.: Forty-year Simulations of Firn Processes over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-266, in review, 2020. a
Mottram, R. and Boberg, F.: Atmospheric climate model output
from the regional climate model HIRHAM5 forced with ERA-
Interim for Antarctica [data set], available at: http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/RUM/HIRHAM/ANTARCTICA/,
last access: 1 June 2021. a
Mottram, R., Boberg, F., Langen, P., Yang, S., Rodehacke, C., Christensen,
J. H., and Madsen, M. S.: Surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet in
the regional climate model HIRHAM5: Present state and future prospects, Low
Temperat. Sci., 75, 105–115, 2017. a
Mottram, R., Hansen, N., Kittel, C., van Wessem, J. M., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Boberg, F., van de Berg, W. J., Fettweis, X., Gossart, A., van Lipzig, N. P. M., van Meijgaard, E., Orr, A., Phillips, T., Webster, S., Simonsen, S. B., and Souverijns, N.: What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates, The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l
Oerlemans, J. and Knap, W.: A 1 year record of global radiation and albedo in
the ablation zone of Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland, J. Glaciol., 44, 231–238, 1998. a
Oerter, H., Wilhelms, F., Jung-Rothenhäusler, F., Göktas, F.,
Miller, H., Graf, W., and Sommer, S.: Physical properties of firn core
DML03C98_09, PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.58410, 2000. a, b
Palm, S. P., Kayetha, V., Yang, Y., and Pauly, R.: Blowing snow sublimation and transport over Antarctica from 11 years of CALIPSO observations, The Cryosphere, 11, 2555–2569, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2555-2017, 2017. a
Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini , E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model description, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, PuRe Report No. 349, 2003. a, b
Rummukainen, M.: State-of-the-art with regional climate models, Wiley
Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 1, 82–96, 2010. a
Rummukainen, M.: Added value in regional climate modeling, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 7, 145–159, 2016. a
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., Van Den Broeke, M., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P., Briggs, K., Joughin, I., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, T., Scambos, T., Schlegel, N., Geruo, A., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A., Babonis, G., Barletta, V., Blazquez, A., Bonin, J., Csatho, B., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallee, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Groh, A., Gunter, B., Hanna, E., Harig, C., Helm, V., Horvath, A., Horwath, M., Khan, S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Konrad, H., Langen, P., Lecavalier, B., Loomis, B., Luthcke, S., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S., Mohajerani, Y., Moore, P., Mouginot, J., Moyano, G., Muir, A., Nagler, T., Nield, G., Nilsson, J., Noel, B., Otosaka, I., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Rietbroek, R., Rott, H., Sandberg-Sørensen, L., Sasgen, I., Save, H., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E., Schröder, L., Seo, K. W., Simonsen, S., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T., Talpe, M., Tarasov, L., Van De Berg, W. J., Van Der Wal, W., Van Wessem, M., Vishwakarma, B. D., Wiese, D., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, 2018. a, b
Thompson, D. W. and Solomon, S.: Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere
climate change, Science, 296, 895–899, 2002. a
Thompson, D. W., Solomon, S., Kushner, P. J., England, M. H., Grise, K. M., and Karoly, D. J.: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change, Nat. Geosci., 4, 741–749, 2011. a
Turner, J.: The el nino–southern oscillation and antarctica, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1–31, 2004. a
Turner, J., Phillips, T., Thamban, M., Rahaman, W., Marshall, G. J., Wille, J. D., Favier, V., Winton, V. H. L., Thomas, E., Wang, Z., van den Broeke, M., Hosking, J. S., and Lachlan-Cope, T.: The dominant role of extreme precipitation events in Antarctic snowfall variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3502–3511, 2019. a
Van de Berg, W., Van den Broeke, M., Reijmer, C., and Van Meijgaard, E.:
Characteristics of the Antarctic surface mass balance, 1958–2002, using a
regional atmospheric climate model, Ann. Glaciol., 41, 97–104, 2005. a
van den Broeke, M.: Depth and density of the Antarctic firn layer, Arct.
Antarct. Alp. Res., 40, 432–438, 2008. a
Van Genuchten, M. T.: A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic
conductivity of unsaturated soils, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 44, 892–898, 1980. a
Van Lipzig, N. P., Marshall, G. J., Orr, A., and King, J. C.: The relationship between the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and Antarctic Peninsula summer temperatures: Analysis of a high-resolution model climatology, J. Climate, 21, 1649–1668, 2008. a
van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Noël, B. P. Y., van Meijgaard, E., Amory, C., Birnbaum, G., Jakobs, C. L., Krüger, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Medley, B., Reijmer, C. H., van Tricht, K., Trusel, L. D., van Ulft, L. H., Wouters, B., Wuite, J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d
Vandecrux, B.: BaptisteVandecrux/SEB_Firn_model: GEUS surface energy balance and firn model v0.3, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4542767, 2021. a
Vandecrux, B., Fausto, R. S., Langen, P. L., van As, D., MacFerrin, M., Colgan, W. T., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Steffen, K., Jensen, N. S., Møller, M. T., and Box, J. E.: Drivers of firn density on the Greenland ice sheet revealed by weather station observations and modeling, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 2563–2576, 2018. a, b
Vandecrux, B., Fausto, R., Van As, D., Colgan, W., Langen, P.,
Haubner, K., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Heilig, A., Stevens, C., Mac-Ferrin, M., Niwano, M., Steffen, K., and Box, J. E.: Firn cold content evolution at nine sites on the Greenland ice sheet between 1998 and 2017, J. Glaciol., 66, 591–602, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.30, 2020a. a
Vandecrux, B., Mottram, R., Langen, P. L., Fausto, R. S., Olesen, M., Stevens, C. M., Verjans, V., Leeson, A., Ligtenberg, S., Kuipers Munneke, P.,
Marchenko, S., van Pelt, W., Meyer, C. R., Simonsen, S. B., Heilig, A.,
Samimi, S., Marshall, S., Machguth, H., MacFerrin, M., Niwano, M., Miller,
O., Voss, C. I., and Box, J. E.: The firn meltwater Retention Model
Intercomparison Project (RetMIP): evaluation of nine firn models at four
weather station sites on the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 14,
3785–3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, 2020b.
a, b, c
Verjans, V., Leeson, A., McMillan, M., Stevens, C., van Wessem, J. M., van de
Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M., Kittel, C., Amory, C., Fettweis, X., Hansen,
N., Boberg, F., and Mottram, R.: Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness
constrained using a model ensemble approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092060, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060, 2021. a
Vionnet, V., Brun, E., Morin, S., Boone, A., Faroux, S., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., and Willemet, J.-M.: The detailed snowpack scheme Crocus and its
implementation in SURFEX v7.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 773–791,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-773-2012, 2012. a
Wagenbach, D., Graf, W., Minikin, A., Trefzer, U., Kipfstuhl, S., Oerter, H., and Blindow, N.: Density, δ18O, deuterium, and tritium of firn core BER02C90_02, PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.548622, 1994. a, b
Whitehouse, P. L., Bentley, M. J., Milne, G. A., King, M. A., and Thomas,
I. D.: A new glacial isostatic adjustment model for Antarctica: calibrated
and tested using observations of relative sea-level change and present-day
uplift rates, Geophys. J. Int., 190, 1464–1482, 2012. a
Wille, J. D., Favier, V., Dufour, A., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Turner, J., Agosta, C., and Codron, F.: West Antarctic surface melt triggered by atmospheric rivers, Nat. Geosci., 12, 911–916, 2019. a
Zuo, Z. and Oerlemans, J.: Modelling albedo and specific balance of the
Greenland ice sheet: calculations for the Søndre Strømfjord transect,
J. Glaciol., 42, 305–317, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000004160, 1996. a
Zwally, H. J., Giovinetto, M. B., Beckley, M. A., and Saba, J. L.: Antarctic
and Greenland drainage systems, GSFC Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, availble at: http://icesat4.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo_data/ant_grn_drainage_systems.php (last access: January 2021), 2012. a
Zwally, J. H. and Fiegles, S.: Extent and duration of Antarctic surface
melting, J. Glaciol., 40, 463–475, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000012338, 1994. a
Short summary
We have used computer models to estimate the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) from 1980 to 2017. Our estimates lies between 2473.5 ± 114.4 Gt per year and 2564.8 ± 113.7 Gt per year. To evaluate our models, we compared the modelled snow temperatures and densities to in situ measurements. We also investigated the spatial distribution of the SMB. It is very important to have estimates of the Antarctic SMB because then it is easier to understand global sea level changes.
We have used computer models to estimate the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) from 1980 to...
