Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021
Research article
06 Aug 2021
Research article | 06 Aug 2021

Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run

Julien Beaumet et al.

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Cited articles

Agosta, C., Favier, V., Krinner, G., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., and Genthon, C.: High-resolution modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, application for the twentieth, twenty first and twenty second centuries, Clima. Dynam., 41, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1903-9, 2013. a
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Arblaster, J. M. and Meehl, G. A.: Contributions of External Forcings to Southern Annular Mode Trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896–2905, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3774.1, 2006. a, b
Barnes, E. A. and Hartmann, D. L.: Detection of Rossby wave breaking and its response to shifts of the midlatitude jet with climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D09117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017469, 2012. a, b
Beaumet, J., Déqué, M., Krinner, G., Agosta, C., and Alias, A.: Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model, The Cryosphere, 13, 3023–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, 2019a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
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Short summary
We use empirical run-time bias correction (also called flux correction) to correct the systematic errors of the ARPEGE atmospheric climate model. When applying the method to future climate projections, we found a lesser poleward shift and an intensification of the maximum of westerly winds present in the southern high latitudes. This yields a significant additional warming of +0.6 to +0.9 K of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected control projections using the RCP8.5 scenario.