Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Record summer rains in 2019 led to massive loss of surface and cave ice in SE Europe
Emil Racoviţă Institute of Speleology, Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca, 400006, Romania
Stable Isotope Laboratory, Ştefan cel Mare University, Suceava, 720229, Romania
Romanian Institute of Science and Technology, Cluj-Napoca, 400022, Romania
Nenad Buzjak
Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, 10000, Croatia
Alexandru Onaca
Department of Geography, West University, Timişoara, 300223, Romania
Christos Pennos
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, 5020, Norway
Yorgos Sotiriadis
Department of Geography, Aegean University, Mytilene, 81100, Greece
Monica Ionita
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, 27515, Germany
Stavros Zachariadis
Department of History and Archeology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 54636, Greece
Michael Styllas
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, 1015, Switzerland
Jure Kosutnik
University of Nova Gorica, Nova Gorica, 5000, Slovenia
Alexandru Hegyi
Department of Geography, West University, Timişoara, 300223, Romania
Department of History and Archaeology, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, 1678, Cyprus
Valerija Butorac
Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, 10000, Croatia
Related authors
Marco M. Lehmann, Josie Geris, Ilja van Meerveld, Daniele Penna, Youri Rothfuss, Matteo Verdone, Pertti Ala-Aho, Matyas Arvai, Alise Babre, Philippe Balandier, Fabian Bernhard, Lukrecija Butorac, Simon Damien Carrière, Natalie C. Ceperley, Zuosinan Chen, Alicia Correa, Haoyu Diao, David Dubbert, Maren Dubbert, Fabio Ercoli, Marius G. Floriancic, Teresa E. Gimeno, Damien Gounelle, Frank Hagedorn, Christophe Hissler, Frédéric Huneau, Alberto Iraheta, Tamara Jakovljević, Nerantzis Kazakis, Zoltan Kern, Karl Knaebel, Johannes Kobler, Jiří Kocum, Charlotte Koeber, Gerbrand Koren, Angelika Kübert, Dawid Kupka, Samuel Le Gall, Aleksi Lehtonen, Thomas Leydier, Philippe Malagoli, Francesca Sofia Manca di Villahermosa, Chiara Marchina, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, Hannu Marttila, Aline Meyer Oliveira, Gaël Monvoisin, Natalie Orlowski, Kadi Palmik-Das, Aurel Persoiu, Andrei Popa, Egor Prikaziuk, Cécile Quantin, Katja T. Rinne-Garmston, Clara Rohde, Martin Sanda, Matthias Saurer, Daniel Schulz, Michael Paul Stockinger, Christine Stumpp, Jean-Stéphane Venisse, Lukas Vlcek, Stylianos Voudouris, Björn Weeser, Mark E. Wilkinson, Giulia Zuecco, and Katrin Meusburger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-409, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-409, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes a unique large-scale isotope dataset to study water dynamics in European forests. Researchers collected data from 40 beech and spruce forest sites in spring and summer 2023, using a standardized method to ensure consistency. The results show that water sources for trees change between seasons and vary by tree species. This large dataset offers valuable information for understanding plant water use, improving ecohydrological models, and mapping water cycles across Europe.
Carmen-Andreea Bădăluţă, Aurel Perșoiu, Monica Ionita, and Natalia Piotrowska
Clim. Past, 16, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2445-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of summer temperature for the last millennium in east-central Europe that shows little summer temperature differences between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age on centennial scales as well as the fact that well-expressed minima and maxima occurred synchronously with periods of low and high solar activity, respectively. Furthermore, summer temperatures fluctuated with a periodicity similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Alessandro Gagliardi, Norel Rimbu, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3071, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that stable oxygen isotope ratios from Greenland ice cores can help identify extreme winter events in Europe. In years with a lack of the heavier oxygen isotope, we found changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe. These changes bring warmer, wetter conditions to the Norwegian coast and colder, drier conditions to southern Europe. The pattern appears in both recent and past data, staying stable over the last 400 years.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Maria Rădoane, Cătălin-Constantin Roibu, Mihai-Gabriel Cotos, and Monica Ionita
Biogeosciences, 22, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-55-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-55-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed drought conditions for the past 200 years for central and eastern parts of Europe (Romania) using δ18O in oak tree ring cellulose from Romania, revealing periods of both extreme wetness (e.g., 1905–1915) and dryness (e.g., 1818–1835). The most severe droughts occurred in the 19th and 21st centuries, likely linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation. This research highlights the potential of tree rings to improve our understanding of long-term climate variability in Europe.
Alexandru Onaca, Flavius Sirbu, Valentin Poncos, Christin Hilbich, Tazio Strozzi, Petru Urdea, Răzvan Popescu, Oana Berzescu, Bernd Etzelmüller, Alfred Vespremeanu-Stroe, Mirela Vasile, Delia Teleagă, Dan Birtaș, Iosif Lopătiță, Simon Filhol, Alexandru Hegyi, and Florina Ardelean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3262, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a methodology for the study of slow-moving rock glaciers in marginal permafrost and provides the basic knowledge for understanding rock glaciers in south east Europe. By using a combination of different methods (remote sensing, geophysical survey, thermal measurements), we found out that, on the transitional rock glaciers, low ground ice content (i.e. below 20 %) produces horizontal displacements of up to 3 cm per year.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Marco M. Lehmann, Josie Geris, Ilja van Meerveld, Daniele Penna, Youri Rothfuss, Matteo Verdone, Pertti Ala-Aho, Matyas Arvai, Alise Babre, Philippe Balandier, Fabian Bernhard, Lukrecija Butorac, Simon Damien Carrière, Natalie C. Ceperley, Zuosinan Chen, Alicia Correa, Haoyu Diao, David Dubbert, Maren Dubbert, Fabio Ercoli, Marius G. Floriancic, Teresa E. Gimeno, Damien Gounelle, Frank Hagedorn, Christophe Hissler, Frédéric Huneau, Alberto Iraheta, Tamara Jakovljević, Nerantzis Kazakis, Zoltan Kern, Karl Knaebel, Johannes Kobler, Jiří Kocum, Charlotte Koeber, Gerbrand Koren, Angelika Kübert, Dawid Kupka, Samuel Le Gall, Aleksi Lehtonen, Thomas Leydier, Philippe Malagoli, Francesca Sofia Manca di Villahermosa, Chiara Marchina, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, Hannu Marttila, Aline Meyer Oliveira, Gaël Monvoisin, Natalie Orlowski, Kadi Palmik-Das, Aurel Persoiu, Andrei Popa, Egor Prikaziuk, Cécile Quantin, Katja T. Rinne-Garmston, Clara Rohde, Martin Sanda, Matthias Saurer, Daniel Schulz, Michael Paul Stockinger, Christine Stumpp, Jean-Stéphane Venisse, Lukas Vlcek, Stylianos Voudouris, Björn Weeser, Mark E. Wilkinson, Giulia Zuecco, and Katrin Meusburger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-409, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-409, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes a unique large-scale isotope dataset to study water dynamics in European forests. Researchers collected data from 40 beech and spruce forest sites in spring and summer 2023, using a standardized method to ensure consistency. The results show that water sources for trees change between seasons and vary by tree species. This large dataset offers valuable information for understanding plant water use, improving ecohydrological models, and mapping water cycles across Europe.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals how a decline in autumn sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas leads to severe winters in Europe. Using observational data, we illustrate that Arctic sea ice loss isn't just a local issue – it impacts harsh winter conditions globally. Current climate models struggle to reflect these effects accurately, indicating a need for more research. Gaining a more nuanced understanding of this relationship will enhance our climate predictions and preparation for future extremes.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Daniel Balting, Simon Michel, Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Vapor pressure deficit is a key component of vegetation dynamics, soil science, meteorology, and soil science. In this study, we reconstruct the variability of the vapor pressure deficit in the past and examine the changes in future scenarios using climate models. In this way, past, present and future changes of the vapor pressure deficit can be detected locally, regionally, and continentally with higher statistical significance.
Petru Cosmin Vaideanu, Mihai Dima, Monica Ionita, and Mirela Voiculescu
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-75, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Observing clouds and their properties is not straightforward, however, these are important for reducing climate models uncertainties. Ground-based observations are spatially limited while satellite data are accompanied by various artefacts. In this paper, we use corrected observational and state-of-the-art reanalysis cloud data to show that the recent evolution of total cloud cover on a global scale is linked to the Eastern Pacific and the Central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Monica Ionita and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1685–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing the joint frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over Central Europe and the Mediterranean region. This, together with the projected increase in potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events over these regions.
Daniel F. Balting, Monica Ionita, Martin Wegmann, Gerhard Helle, Gerhard H. Schleser, Norel Rimbu, Mandy B. Freund, Ingo Heinrich, Diana Caldarescu, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 17, 1005–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To extend climate information back in time, we investigate the climate sensitivity of a δ18O network from tree rings, consisting of 26 European sites and covering the last 400 years. Our results suggest that the δ18O variability is associated with large-scale anomaly patterns that resemble those observed for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We conclude that the investigation of large-scale climate signals far beyond instrumental records can be done with a δ18O network derived from tree rings.
Carmen-Andreea Bădăluţă, Aurel Perșoiu, Monica Ionita, and Natalia Piotrowska
Clim. Past, 16, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2445-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of summer temperature for the last millennium in east-central Europe that shows little summer temperature differences between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age on centennial scales as well as the fact that well-expressed minima and maxima occurred synchronously with periods of low and high solar activity, respectively. Furthermore, summer temperatures fluctuated with a periodicity similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Sigrid J. Bakke, Monica Ionita, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5621–5653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an in-depth analysis of the 2018 northern European drought. Large parts of the region experienced 60-year record-breaking temperatures, linked to high-pressure systems and warm surrounding seas. Meteorological drought developed from May and, depending on local conditions, led to extreme low flows and groundwater drought in the following months. The 2018 event was unique in that it affected most of Fennoscandia as compared to previous droughts.
Monica Ionita, Viorica Nagavciuc, and Bin Guan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5125–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Analysis of the largest 10 floods in the lower Rhine, between 1817 and 2015, shows that all these extreme flood peaks have been preceded, up to 7 d in advance, by intense moisture transport from the tropical North Atlantic basin in the form of narrow bands also known as atmospheric rivers. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of moisture transport as the driver of extreme flooding in the lower part of the Rhine catchment area.
Cited articles
Bădăluţă, C.-A., Perşoiu, A., Ionita, M., and Piotrowska, N.: Stable isotopes in cave ice suggest summer temperatures in east-central Europe are linked to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation variability, Clim. Past, 16, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2445-2020, 2020.
Brad, T., Itcus, C., Pascu, M.-D., Perşoiu, A., Hillebrand-Voiculescu, A., Iancu, L., and Purcarea, C.: Fungi in perennial ice from Scărişoara Ice Cave (Romania), Sci. Rep., 8, 10096, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28401-1, 2018.
Braithwaite, R. J. and Raper, S. C. B.: Glaciological conditions in seven contrasting regions estimated with the degree-day model, Ann. Glaciol., 46, 296–302, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871206, 2007.
Brown, J., Harper, J., and Humphrey, N.: Cirque glacier sensitivity to 21st century warming: Sperry Glacier, Rocky Mountains, USA, Glob. Planet. Change 74, 91–98, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.09.001, 2010.
Buzjak, N., Bočić, N., Paar, D., Bakšić, D., and Dubovečak, V.: Ice caves in Croatia, in: Ice caves, edited by: Perşoiu, A. and Lauritzen, S. E., Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 335–369, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811739-2.00016-4, 2018.
Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J., Jung, T., Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T. J., Bhatt, U. S., Chen, H. W., Coumou, D., Feldstein, S., Gu, H., Handorf, D., Henderson, G., Ionita, M., Kretschmer, M., Laliberte, F., Lee, S., Linderholm, H. W., Maslowski, W., Peings, Y., Pfeiffer, K., Rigor, I., Semmler, T., Stroeve, S., Taylor, P. C., Vavrus, S., Vihma, T., Wang, S., Wendisch, M., Wu, Y., and Yoonet, J.: Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 20–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y, 2020.
Colucci, R. R. and Guglielmin, M.: Precipitation-temperature changes and evolution of a small glacier in the southeastern European Alps during the last 90 years, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 2783–2797, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4172, 2015.
Colucci, R. R., Fontana, D., Forte, E., Potleca, M., and Guglielmin, M.: Response of ice caves to weather extremes in the southeastern Alps, Europe, Geomorphology, 261, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.017, 2016.
Cornes, R., Van der Schrier, G., Van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets, J. Geophys. Res., 123, 9391–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.
Deutscher Wetterdienst: Maps of snow – WMO-region RA VI, available at: https://www.dwd.de, last access: 23 March 2021.
European State of the Climate: 2019 summary, Copernicus Climate Change Service, https://doi.org/10.24381/zw9t-hx58, 2019.
Feurdean, A., Perşoiu, A., Pazdur, A., and Onac, B. P.: Evaluating the palaeoecological potential of pollen recovered from ice in caves: a case study from Scarisoara Ice Cave, Romania, Rev. Palaeobot. Palyno., 165, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.revpalbo.2011.01.007, 2011.
Francis, J. A. and Vavrus, S. J.: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012.
Gachev, E., Stoyanov, K., and Gikov, A.: Small glaciers on the Balkan Peninsula: state and changes in the last several years, Quatern. Int., 415, 33–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.10.042, 2016.
Giorgi, F., Im, E. S., Coppola, E., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Gao, X. J., Mariotti, L., and Shi, Y.: Higher Hydroclimatic Intensity with Global Warming, J. Climate, 24, 5309–5324, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3979.1, 2011.
Giorgi, F., Torma, C., Coppola, E., Ban, N., Schär, C., and Somot, S.: Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming, Nat. Geosci., 9, 584–589, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2761, 2016.
Grunewald, K. and Scheithauer, J.: Europe's southernmost glaciers: response and adaptation to climate change, J. Glaciol., 56, 129–142, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310791190947, 2010.
Hall, D. K. and Riggs, G. A.: MODIS/Terra Snow Cover Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG; Version 6; NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center: Boulder, CO, USA, 2006.
Hughes, P. D.: Response of a Montenegro glacier to extreme summer heatwaves in 2003 and 2007, Geogr. Ann., 90A, 259–267, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2008.00344.x, 2008.
Hughes, P. D.: Little Ice Age glaciers in the Balkans: low altitude glaciation enabled by cooler temperatures and local topoclimatic controls, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 35, 229–241, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1916, 2009.
Hughes, P. D.: Little Ice Age glaciers and climate in the Mediterranean mountains: a new analysis, Cuadern. Investig. Geográfica, 44, 15–45, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3362, 2018.
HBSD: Crna ledenica – HR00366, Ministry of Environmental Protection and Energy: Information System for Nature Conservation – Cadastre of Speleological Objects of the Republic of Croatia, http://natura2000.dzzp.hr/speleo/, last access: 22 May 2020.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N., 2019.
Itcus, C., Pascu, M. D., Lavin, P., Perşoiu, A., Iancu, L., and Purcarea, C.: Bacterial and archaeal community structures in perennial cave ice, Sci. Rep., 8, 15671, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34106-2, 2018.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G.,Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki,W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C.,Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40 year reanalysis project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–470, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
Kern, Z. and Perşoiu, A.: Cave ice - the imminent loss of untapped mid-latitude cryospheric palaeoenvironmental archives, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 67, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.01.008, 2013.
Kern, Z. and Thomas, S.: Ice level changes from seasonal to decadal time-scales observed in lava tubes, Lava Beds National Monument, NE California, USA, Geogr. Fis. Din. Quat., 37, 151–162, 2014.
Kern, Z., Molnár. M., Svingor, É., Perşoiu, A., and Nagy, B.: High-resolution, well-preserved tritium record in the ice of Borţig Ice Cave (Bihor Mts., Romania), Holocene, 19, 729–736, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683609105296, 2009.
Kern, Z., Széles, E., Horvatinčić, N., Fórizs, I., Bočić, N., and Nagy, B.: Glaciochemical investigations of the ice deposit of Vukušić Ice Cave, Velebit Mountain, Croatia, The Cryosphere, 5, 485–494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-485-2011, 2011.
Kern, Z., Palcsu, L., Pavuza, R., and Molnár, M.: Age estimates on the deposition of the Cave ice block in the Saarhalle Dachstein-Mammoth Cave (Mammuthöhle, Austria) based on 3H and 14C, Radiocarbon, 60, 1379–1389, https://doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2018.96, 2018a.
Kern, Z., Bočić, N., and Sipos, G.: Radiocarbon-Dated vegetal remains from the cave ice deposits of Velebit Mountain, Croatia, Radiocarbon, 60, 1391–1402, https://doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2018.108, 2018b.
Kumar, R.: Glacieret, in: Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice and Glaciers, edited by: Singh, V. P., Singh, P., and Haritashya, U. K., Springer, the Netherlands, Dordrecht, 436–436, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2642-2_203, 2011.
Lauritzen, S.-E., Baastad, L., and Engelien, J.: Ice Caves in Norway, Fennoscandia and the Arctic, in: Ice caves, edited by: Perşoiu, A. and Lauritzen, S. E., Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 479–492, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811739-2.00023-1, 2018.
Leunda, M., González-Sampériz, P., Gil-Romera, G., Bartolomé, M., Belmonte-Ribas, Á., Gómez-García, D., Kaltenrieder, P., Rubiales, J. M., Schwörer, C., Tinner, W., Morales-Molino, C., and Sancho, C.: Ice cave reveals environmental forcing of long-term Pyrenean tree line dynamics, J. Ecol., 107, 814–828, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13077, 2019.
Liu, J., Curry, J., and Wang, H.: Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 4074–4079, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114910109, 2012.
Luetscher, M., Jeannin, P.-Y., and Haeberli, W.: Ice caves as an indicator of winter climate evolution: a case study from the Jura Mountains, Holocene, 15, 982–993, https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl872ra, 2005.
Marks, D., Kimball, J., Tingey, D., and Link, T.: The sensitivity of snowmelt processes to climate conditions and forest cover during rain-on-snow: a case study of the 1996 Pacific Northwest flood, Hydrol. Proc., 12, 1569–1587, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199808/09)12:10/11<1569::AID-HYP682>3.0.CO;2-L, 1998.
Marzeion, B., Jarosch, A. H., and Gregory, J. M.: Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change, The Cryosphere, 8, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, 2014.
Mihevc, A.: Ice caves in Slovenia, in: Ice caves, edited by: Perşoiu, A. and Lauritzen, S. E., Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 691–703, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811739-2.00030-9, 2018.
Mondini, A., Donhauser, J., Itcus, C., Marin, C., Perşoiu, A., Lavin, P., Frey, B., and Purcarea, C.: High-throughput sequencing of fungal communities across the perennial ice block of Scărişoara Ice Cave, Ann. Glaciol., 59, 134–146, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2019.6, 2019.
Moreno, A., Bartolomé, M., López-Moreno, J. I., Pey, J., Corella, J. P., García-Orellana, J., Sancho, C., Leunda, M., Gil-Romera, G., González-Sampériz, P., Pérez-Mejías, C., Navarro, F., Otero-García, J., Lapazaran, J., Alonso-González, E., Cid, C., López-Martínez, J., Oliva-Urcia, B., Faria, S. H., Sierra, M. J., Millán, R., Querol, X., Alastuey, A., and García-Ruíz, J. M.: The case of a southern European glacier which survived Roman and medieval warm periods but is disappearing under recent warming, The Cryosphere, 15, 1157–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1157-2021, 2021.
Munroe, J. S.: First investigation of perennial ice in Winter Wonderland Cave, Uinta Mountains, Utah, USA, The Cryosphere, 15, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-863-2021, 2021.
Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Stjern, C. W., Hodnebrog, Ø., Marelle, L., Samset, B. H., Sillmann, J., Schaller, N., Fischer, E., Schulz, M., and Stohl, A.: Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming, Sci. Rep., 9, 16063, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52277-4, 2019.
Oerlemans, J.: Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records, Science, 308, 675–677, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1107046, 2005.
Onaca, A., Ardelean, A., Ardelean, F., Gachev, E., Magori, B., and Sîrbu, F.: Ice thickness and internal structure of two small glaciers in the Pirin Mountains (Bulgaria) assessed by geophysical investigations, in: Proceedings of the 20th Congress of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA), Dublin, 25–31 July, P-2845, 2019.
Ødegård, R. S., Nesje, A., Isaksen, K., Andreassen, L. M., Eiken, T., Schwikowski, M., and Uglietti, C.: Climate change threatens archaeologically significant ice patches: insights into their age, internal structure, mass balance and climate sensitivity, The Cryosphere, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-17-2017, 2017.
Paul, F., Kääb, A., Maisch, M., Kellenberger, T., and Haeberli, W.: Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020816, 2004.
Paul, F., Rastner, P., Azzoni, R. S., Diolaiuti, G., Fugazza, D., Le Bris, R., Nemec, J., Rabatel, A., Ramusovic, M., Schwaizer, G., and Smiraglia, C.: Glacier shrinkage in the Alps continues unabated as revealed by a new glacier inventory from Sentinel-2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1805–1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1805-2020, 2020.
Paun, V. I., Icaza, G., Lavin, P., Marin, C., Tudorache, A., Perşoiu, A., Dorador, C., and Purcarea, C.: Total and Potentially Active Bacterial Communities Entrapped in a Late Glacial Through Holocene Ice Core From Scarisoara Ice Cave, Romania, Front. Microbiol., 10, 1193, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2019.01193, 2019.
Pennos, C., Styllas, M., Sotiriadis, Y., and Vaxevanopoulos, M.: Ice caves in Greece, in: Ice caves, edited by: Perşoiu, A. and Lauritzen, S. E., Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 385–397, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811739-2.00018-8, 2018.
Perşoiu, A.: Evidence of basal melting of the ice block from Scărişoara Ice Cave, in: Glacier Caves and Glacial Karst in High Mountains and Polar Regions, edited by: Mavlyudov, B. R., Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 109–112, 2005.
Perşoiu, A.: Ice dynamics in caves, in Ice caves, edited by: Perşoiu, A. and Lauritzen, S. E., Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 97–108, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811739-2.00034-6, 2018.
Perşoiu, A. and Lauritzen, S. E. (Eds.): Ice caves, Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 2018.
Perşoiu, A. and Onac, B. P.: Ice caves in Romania, in: Cave and Karst Systems of Romania, edited by: Ponta, G. M. L. and Onac, B. P., 455–465, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90747-5_52, 2019.
Perşoiu, A. and Pazdur, A.: Ice genesis and its long-term mass balance and dynamics in Scărişoara Ice Cave, Romania, The Cryosphere, 5, 45–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-45-2011, 2011.
Perşoiu, A., Onac, B. P., and Perşoiu, I.: The interplay between air temperature and ice dynamics in Scărişoara Ice Cave, Romania, Acta Carsologica, 40, 445–456, https://doi.org/10.3986/ac.v40i3.4, 2011a.
Perşoiu, A., Onac, B. P., Wynn, J., Bojar, A.-V., and Holmgren K: Stable isotopes behavior during cave ice formation by water freezing in Scărişoara Ice Cave, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D02111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014477, 2011b.
Perşoiu, A., Onac, B. P., Wynn, J. G., Blaauw, M., Ionita, M., and Hansson, M.: Holocene winter climate variability in Central and Eastern Europe, Sci. Rep., 7, 1196, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01397-w, 2017.
Planton, S., Lionello, P., Artale, V., Aznar, R., Carrillo, A., Colin, J., Congedi, L., Dubois, C., Elizalde, A., Gualdi, S., Hertig, E., Jacobeit, J., Jordà, G., Li, L., Mariotti, A., Piani, C., Ruti, P., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Sannino, G., Sevault, F., Somot, S., and Tsimplis, M.: 8 - The Climate of the Mediterranean Region in Future Climate Projections, in: The Climate of the Mediterranean Region, Elsevier, Oxford, 449–502, 2012.
Pomeroy, J. W., Fang, X., and Marks, D. G.: The cold rain-on-snow event of June 2013 in the Canadian Rockies – characteristics and diagnosis, Hydrol. Proc., 30, 2899–2914, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10905, 2016.
Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Rädler, A. T., Tijssen, L., Nikulin, G., Prein, A. F., van Meijgaard, E., Fealy, R., Jacob, D., and Teichmann, C.: Future changes in European severe convection environments in a regional climate model ensemble, J. Climate, 30, 6771–6794, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1, 2017.
Racoviţǎ, G.: Bilan climatique de la grotte glacière de Scǎrişoara, dresse sur dix années d'observations, Trav. Inst. Spéol. “E. Racovitza”, XXXIII, 107–158, 1994.
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P. H., Faust, E., Sausen, R., and Púčik, T.: Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2, 30, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7, 2019.
Rottler, E., Kormann, C., Francke, T., and Bronstert, A.: Elevation-dependent warming in the Swiss Alps 1981–2017: Features, forcings and feedbacks, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 2556–2568, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5970, 2019.
Rubel, F., Brugger, K., Haslinger, K., and Auer, I.: The climate of the European Alps: Shift of very high resolution Koppen-Geiger climate zones 1800–2100, Meteorol. Z., 26, 115–125, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0816, 2017.
Rusu, T., Racoviţǎ, G., and Coman, D.: Contribution à l'étude du complexe karstique de Scǎrişoara, Ann. Spéléol., 25, 383–408, 1970.
Sancho, C., Belmonte, Á., Bartolomé, M., Moreno, A., Leunda, M., and López-Martínez, J.: Middle-to-late Holocene palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from the A294 ice-cave record (Central Pyrenees, northern Spain), Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 484, 135–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.12.027, 2018.
Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.: Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 704–709, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2271, 2014.
Sommer, C., Malz, P., Seehaus, T. C., Lippl, S., Zemp, M., and Braun, M. H.: Rapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the early 21st century, Nat. Commun., 11, 3209, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16818-0, 2020.
Spinoni, J., Lakatos, M., Szentimrey, T., Bihari, Z., Szalai, S., Vogt, J., and Antofie, T.: Heat and cold waves trends in the Carpathian Region from 1961 to 2010, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 4197–4209, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4279, 2015.
Spoötl, C., Reimer, P. J., and Luetscher, M.: Long-term mass balance of perennial firn and ice in an Alpine cave (Austria): constraints from radiocarbon-dated wood fragments, Holocene 24, 165–175, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683613515729, 2014.
Stoffel, M., Luetscher, M., Bollschweiler, M., and Schlatter, F.: Evidence of NAO control on subsurface ice accumulation in a 1200 yr old cave-ice sequence, St. Livres ice cave, Switzerland, Quaternary Res., 72, 16–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2009.03.002, 2009.
Styllas, M. N., Schimmelpfennig, I., Benedetti, L., Ghilardi, M., Aumaître, G., Bourlès, D., and Keddadouche, K.: Late-glacial and Holocene history of the northeast Mediterranean mountain glaciers – New insights from in situ-produced 36Cl-based cosmic ray exposure dating of paleo-glacier deposits on Mount Olympus, Greece, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 193, 244–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.06.020, 2018.
Topál, D., Hatvani, I. G., and Kern, Z.: Refining projected multidecadal hydroclimate uncertainty in East-Central Europe using CMIP5 and single-model large ensemble simulations, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 142, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03361-7, 2020.
Vaughan, D. G., Comiso, J. C., Allison, I., Carrasco, J., Kaser, G., Kwok, R., Mote, P., Murray, T., Paul, F., Ren, J., Rig- not, E., Solomina, O., Steffen, K., and Zhang, T.: Observations: Cryosphere, in: Climate Change 2013: Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Re- port of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 317–382, 2013.
Zekollari, H., Huss, M., and Farinotti, D.: On the Imbalance and Response Time of Glaciers in the European Alps, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085578, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085578, 2020.
Zemp, M., Huss, M., Thibert, E., Eckert, N., McNabb, R., Huber, J., Barandun, M., Machguth, H., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gärtner-Roer, I., Thomson, L., Paul, F., Maussion, F., Kutuzov, S., and Cogley, J. G.: Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, Nature, 568, 382–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0, 2019.
Short summary
Extreme precipitation events in summer 2019 led to catastrophic loss of cave and surface ice in SE Europe at levels unprecedented during the last century. The projected continuous warming and increase in precipitation extremes could pose an additional threat to glaciers in southern Europe, resulting in a potentially ice-free SE Europe by the middle of the next decade (2035 CE).
Extreme precipitation events in summer 2019 led to catastrophic loss of cave and surface ice in...