Journal cover Journal topic
The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

IF value: 4.713
IF4.713
IF 5-year value: 4.927
IF 5-year
4.927
CiteScore value: 8.0
CiteScore
8.0
SNIP value: 1.425
SNIP1.425
IPP value: 4.65
IPP4.65
SJR value: 2.353
SJR2.353
Scimago H <br class='widget-line-break'>index value: 71
Scimago H
index
71
h5-index value: 53
h5-index53
Download
Short summary
The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.
TC | Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
The Cryosphere, 14, 3537–3550, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
The Cryosphere, 14, 3537–3550, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020

Research article 27 Oct 2020

Research article | 27 Oct 2020

Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry

Maria Zeitz et al.

Related authors

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP-6 models
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-80,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-80, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
Short summary
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
Ronja Reese, Anders Levermann, Torsten Albrecht, Hélène Seroussi, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020
Short summary
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Coupling framework (1.0) for the ice sheet model PISM (1.1.1) and the ocean model MOM5 (5.1.0) via the ice-shelf cavity module PICO
Moritz Kreuzer, Ronja Reese, Willem Nicholas Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, Torsten Albrecht, Georg Feulner, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-230,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-230, 2020
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-186,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-186, 2020
Preprint under review for TC
Short summary

Related subject area

Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Ice Physics
Geothermal heat flux from measured temperature profiles in deep ice boreholes in Antarctica
Pavel Talalay, Yazhou Li, Laurent Augustin, Gary D. Clow, Jialin Hong, Eric Lefebvre, Alexey Markov, Hideaki Motoyama, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 14, 4021–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4021-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4021-2020, 2020
Observation of an optical anisotropy in the deep glacial ice at the geographic South Pole using a laser dust logger
Martin Rongen, Ryan Carlton Bay, and Summer Blot
The Cryosphere, 14, 2537–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2537-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2537-2020, 2020
Short summary
Using a composite flow law to model deformation in the NEEM deep ice core, Greenland – Part 1: The role of grain size and grain size distribution on deformation of the upper 2207 m
Ernst-Jan N. Kuiper, Ilka Weikusat, Johannes H. P. de Bresser, Daniela Jansen, Gill M. Pennock, and Martyn R. Drury
The Cryosphere, 14, 2429–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2429-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Using a composite flow law to model deformation in the NEEM deep ice core, Greenland – Part 2: The role of grain size and premelting on ice deformation at high homologous temperature
Ernst-Jan N. Kuiper, Johannes H. P. de Bresser, Martyn R. Drury, Jan Eichler, Gill M. Pennock, and Ilka Weikusat
The Cryosphere, 14, 2449–2467, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2449-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2449-2020, 2020
Short summary
The role of subtemperate slip in thermally driven ice stream margin migration
Marianne Haseloff, Christian Schoof, and Olivier Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 12, 2545–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2545-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2545-2018, 2018
Short summary

Cited articles

Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., and Truffer, M.: Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured, Nat. Commun., 7, 10524, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10524, 2016. a
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a, b
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195–11200, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116,2019. a
Barnes, P., Tabor, D., and Walker, J. C. F.: The friction and creep of polycrystalline ice, P. Roy. Soc. A-Math. Phy., 324, 127–155, 1971. a, b
Bons, P. D., Kleiner, T., Llorens, M.-G., Prior, D. J., Sachau, T., Weikusat, I., and Jansen, D.: Greenland Ice Sheet: Higher Nonlinearity of Ice Flow Significantly Reduces Estimated Basal Motion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6542–6548, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078356, 2018. a, b, c, d
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.
Citation