Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Oct 2020
Research article |
| 27 Oct 2020
| 27 Oct 2020
Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry
Maria Zeitz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Anders Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
LDEO, Columbia University, New York, USA
Ricarda Winkelmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
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Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
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Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
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Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide a simple stress-based parameterization for cliff calving of ice sheets. According to the resulting increasing dependence of the calving rate on ice thickness, the parameterization might lead to a runaway ice loss in large parts of Greenland and Antarctica.
Anders Levermann and Johannes Feldmann
The Cryosphere, 13, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1621-2019, 2019
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Using scaling analysis we propose that the currently observed marine ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector might be faster than all other potential instabilities in Antarctica.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3229–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, 2018
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Accurately representing grounding-line flux is essential for modelling the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Currently, in some large-scale ice-flow modelling studies a condition on ice flux across grounding lines is imposed using an analytically motivated parameterisation. Here we test this expression for Antarctic grounding lines and find that it provides inaccurate and partly unphysical estimates of ice flux for the highly buttressed ice streams.
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
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Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 11, 1913–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1913-2017, 2017
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, 2017
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Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations show that threshold behavior can follow from the internal dynamics of monsoons. So far, however, the possibility of abrupt changes has not been explored for modern monsoon systems. We analyze state-of-the-art climate model simulations and show that some models project abrupt changes in Sahel rainfall in response to a dynamic shift in the West African monsoon under 21st century climate change.
Jan Wohland, Torsten Albrecht, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Anders Levermann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1799–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, 2016
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In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. Here we derive the basic equations for the melt elevation feedback that can lead to self-amplifying melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and ice sheets in general. The theory unifies the results of complex models when the feedback dominates the dynamics and it allows us to estimate the melt time of ice sheets from data in cases where ice dynamic loss can be neglected.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1753–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1753-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1753-2016, 2016
K. Frieler, M. Mengel, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, 2016
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Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of > 80 % of the additional ice requires a distance of > 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea-level rise of 3 mm yr−1 exceeds 7 % of current global primary energy supply.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
J. Feldmann and A. Levermann
The Cryosphere, 9, 631–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-631-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-631-2015, 2015
M. A. Martin, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
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Numerical ice sheet modelling shows that idealized, step-function type ocean warming in the Weddell Sea, where the ice sheet is close to floatation, leads to more immediate ice discharge with a higher sensitivity to small warming levels than the same warming in the Amundsen Sea. While the cumulative ice loss in the Amundsen Sea Sector is of similar magnitude after five centuries of continued warming, ice loss increases at a slower pace and only for significantly higher warming levels.
D. Ehlert and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-383-2014, 2014
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
T. Albrecht and A. Levermann
The Cryosphere, 8, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, 2014
C. F. Schleussner, J. Runge, J. Lehmann, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 103–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014, 2014
A. Menon, A. Levermann, J. Schewe, J. Lehmann, and K. Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Ice Physics
Evolution of crystallographic preferred orientations of ice sheared to high strains by equal-channel angular pressing
Anisotropic Scattering in Radio-Echo Sounding: Insights from Northeast Greenland
Failure strength of glacier ice inferred from Greenland crevasses
Grain growth of natural and synthetic ice at 0 °C
Ice fabrics in two-dimensional flows: beyond pure and simple shear
Modeling enhanced firn densification due to strain softening
Polarimetric radar reveals the spatial distribution of ice fabric at domes and divides in East Antarctica
Geothermal heat flux from measured temperature profiles in deep ice boreholes in Antarctica
Observation of an optical anisotropy in the deep glacial ice at the geographic South Pole using a laser dust logger
Using a composite flow law to model deformation in the NEEM deep ice core, Greenland – Part 1: The role of grain size and grain size distribution on deformation of the upper 2207 m
Using a composite flow law to model deformation in the NEEM deep ice core, Greenland – Part 2: The role of grain size and premelting on ice deformation at high homologous temperature
The role of subtemperate slip in thermally driven ice stream margin migration
Deriving micro- to macro-scale seismic velocities from ice-core c axis orientations
Qinyu Wang, Sheng Fan, Daniel H. Richards, Rachel Worthington, David J. Prior, and Chao Qi
The Cryosphere, 19, 827–848, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-827-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-827-2025, 2025
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Ice often exhibits a single-cluster fabric when deformed to high strains in glaciers and ice sheets. Using the equal-channel angular pressing technique, we achieved high shear strains in laboratory experiments and examined the fabrics. We investigated the evolutions of fabric and recrystallization mechanisms with strain. The results suggest that rotation recrystallization dominates fabric development when ice is deformed to high strains, explaining the fabrics found in natural ice.
Tamara Annina Gerber, David A. Lilien, Niels F. Nymand, Daniel Steinhage, Olaf Eisen, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2276, 2024
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This study explores how anisotropic scattering and birefringence affect radar signals in ice sheets. Analyzing data from Northeast Greenland, we found anisotropic scattering, caused by small changes in ice crystals, dominates the azimuthal power response. We observe a strong link between scattering strength, orientation, and ice-sheet stratigraphy. Anisotropic scattering can thus be used to determine ice crystal orientation and distinguish ice units from different climatic periods.
Aslak Grinsted, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Ruth Mottram, Anne Munck Solgaard, Joachim Mathiesen, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 1947–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, 2024
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Ice fracture can cause glacier crevassing and calving. These natural hazards can also modulate the flow and evolution of ice sheets. In a new study, we use a new high-resolution dataset to determine a new failure criterion for glacier ice. Surprisingly, the strength of ice depends on the mode of deformation, and this has potential implications for the currently used flow law of ice.
Sheng Fan, David J. Prior, Brent Pooley, Hamish Bowman, Lucy Davidson, David Wallis, Sandra Piazolo, Chao Qi, David L. Goldsby, and Travis F. Hager
The Cryosphere, 17, 3443–3459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3443-2023, 2023
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The microstructure of ice controls the behaviour of polar ice flow. Grain growth can modify the microstructure of ice; however, its processes and kinetics are poorly understood. We conduct grain-growth experiments on synthetic and natural ice samples at 0 °C. Microstructural data show synthetic ice grows continuously with time. In contrast, natural ice does not grow within a month. The inhibition of grain growth in natural ice is largely contributed by bubble pinning at ice grain boundaries.
Daniel H. Richards, Samuel S. Pegler, and Sandra Piazolo
The Cryosphere, 16, 4571–4592, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4571-2022, 2022
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Understanding the orientation of ice grains is key for predicting ice flow. We explore the evolution of these orientations using a new efficient model. We present an exploration of the patterns produced under a range of temperatures and 2D deformations, including for the first time a universal regime diagram. We do this for deformations relevant to ice sheets but not studied in experiments. These results can be used to understand drilled ice cores and improve future modelling of ice sheets.
Falk M. Oraschewski and Aslak Grinsted
The Cryosphere, 16, 2683–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2683-2022, 2022
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Old snow (denoted as firn) accumulates in the interior of ice sheets and gets densified into glacial ice. Typically, this densification is assumed to only depend on temperature and accumulation rate. However, it has been observed that stretching of the firn by horizontal flow also enhances this process. Here, we show how to include this effect in classical firn models. With the model we confirm that softening of the firn controls firn densification in areas with strong horizontal stretching.
M. Reza Ershadi, Reinhard Drews, Carlos Martín, Olaf Eisen, Catherine Ritz, Hugh Corr, Julia Christmann, Ole Zeising, Angelika Humbert, and Robert Mulvaney
The Cryosphere, 16, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1719-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1719-2022, 2022
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Radio waves transmitted through ice split up and inform us about the ice sheet interior and orientation of single ice crystals. This can be used to infer how ice flows and improve projections on how it will evolve in the future. Here we used an inverse approach and developed a new algorithm to infer ice properties from observed radar data. We applied this technique to the radar data obtained at two EPICA drilling sites, where ice cores were used to validate our results.
Pavel Talalay, Yazhou Li, Laurent Augustin, Gary D. Clow, Jialin Hong, Eric Lefebvre, Alexey Markov, Hideaki Motoyama, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 14, 4021–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4021-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4021-2020, 2020
Martin Rongen, Ryan Carlton Bay, and Summer Blot
The Cryosphere, 14, 2537–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2537-2020, 2020
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We report on the observation of a directional anisotropy in the intensity of backscattered light. The measurement was performed using a laser dust logger in the SPC14 drill hole at the geographic South Pole. We find the anisotropy axis to be compatible with the ice flow direction. It is discussed in comparison to a similar anisotropy observed by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. In future, the measurement principle may provide a continuous record of crystal properties along entire drill holes.
Ernst-Jan N. Kuiper, Ilka Weikusat, Johannes H. P. de Bresser, Daniela Jansen, Gill M. Pennock, and Martyn R. Drury
The Cryosphere, 14, 2429–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2429-2020, 2020
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A composite flow law model applied to crystal size distributions from the NEEM deep ice core predicts that fine-grained layers in ice from the last Glacial period localize deformation as internal shear zones in the Greenland ice sheet deforming by grain-size-sensitive creep. This prediction is consistent with microstructures in Glacial age ice.
Ernst-Jan N. Kuiper, Johannes H. P. de Bresser, Martyn R. Drury, Jan Eichler, Gill M. Pennock, and Ilka Weikusat
The Cryosphere, 14, 2449–2467, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2449-2020, 2020
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Fast ice flow occurs in deeper parts of polar ice sheets, driven by high stress and high temperatures. Above 262 K ice flow is further enhanced, probably by the formation of thin melt layers between ice crystals. A model applying an experimentally derived composite flow law, using temperature and grain size values from the deepest 540 m of the NEEM ice core, predicts that flow in fine-grained layers is enhanced by a factor of 10 compared to coarse-grained layers in the Greenland ice sheet.
Marianne Haseloff, Christian Schoof, and Olivier Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 12, 2545–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2545-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2545-2018, 2018
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The widths of the Siple Coast ice streams evolve on decadal to centennial timescales. We investigate how the rate of thermally driven ice stream widening depends on heat dissipation in the ice stream margin and at the bed, and on the inflow of cold ice from the ice ridge. As determining the migration rate requires resolving heat transfer processes on very small scales, we derive a parametrization of the migration rate in terms of parameters that are available from large-scale model outputs.
Johanna Kerch, Anja Diez, Ilka Weikusat, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1715–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1715-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1715-2018, 2018
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We investigate the effect of crystal anisotropy on seismic velocities in glacier ice by calculating seismic phase velocities using the exact c axis angles to describe the crystal orientations in ice-core samples for an alpine and a polar ice core. Our results provide uncertainty estimates for earlier established approximative calculations. Additionally, our findings highlight the variation in seismic velocity at non-vertical incidence as a function of the horizontal azimuth of the seismic plane.
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Short summary
The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.
The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on...
