Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Oct 2020
Research article |
| 27 Oct 2020
| 27 Oct 2020
Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry
Maria Zeitz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Anders Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
LDEO, Columbia University, New York, USA
Ricarda Winkelmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fracture criteria and tensile strength for natural glacier ice calibrated from remote sensing observations of Antarctic ice shelves S. Wells-Moran et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.104
- Cool ice with hot properties S. Fan & D. Prior https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01330-z
- The influence of glacial landscape evolution on Scandinavian ice-sheet dynamics and dimensions G. Jungdal-Olesen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024
- Exploring the conditions conducive to convection within the Greenland Ice Sheet R. Law et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1071-2026
- Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed J. Millstein et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00385-x
- Flow laws for ice constrained by 70 years of laboratory experiments S. Fan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01661-z
- Modelling the influence of marine ice on the dynamics of an idealised ice shelf L. Craw et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.66
- Thermobarokinetics of ice: constitutive formulation for the coupled effect of temperature, stress, and strain rate in ice F. Sahragard et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-595-2026
- Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c M. Mas e Braga et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021
- Near-total loss of buttressing stresses observed on Pine Island Ice Shelf, West Antarctica S. Wells-Moran et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2602994123
- Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks M. Zeitz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022
- The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending W. Buck https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024
- Theoretical stability of ice shelf basal crevasses with a vertical temperature profile N. Coffey et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.52
- Modeling the Deformation Regime of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, Using a Simple Flow Relation for Ice Anisotropy (ESTAR) F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006332
- Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.10
- A modified viscous flow law for natural glacier ice: Scaling from laboratories to ice sheets M. Ranganathan & B. Minchew https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2309788121
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fracture criteria and tensile strength for natural glacier ice calibrated from remote sensing observations of Antarctic ice shelves S. Wells-Moran et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.104
- Cool ice with hot properties S. Fan & D. Prior https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01330-z
- The influence of glacial landscape evolution on Scandinavian ice-sheet dynamics and dimensions G. Jungdal-Olesen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024
- Exploring the conditions conducive to convection within the Greenland Ice Sheet R. Law et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1071-2026
- Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed J. Millstein et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00385-x
- Flow laws for ice constrained by 70 years of laboratory experiments S. Fan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01661-z
- Modelling the influence of marine ice on the dynamics of an idealised ice shelf L. Craw et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.66
- Thermobarokinetics of ice: constitutive formulation for the coupled effect of temperature, stress, and strain rate in ice F. Sahragard et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-595-2026
- Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c M. Mas e Braga et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021
- Near-total loss of buttressing stresses observed on Pine Island Ice Shelf, West Antarctica S. Wells-Moran et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2602994123
- Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks M. Zeitz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022
- The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending W. Buck https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024
- Theoretical stability of ice shelf basal crevasses with a vertical temperature profile N. Coffey et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.52
- Modeling the Deformation Regime of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, Using a Simple Flow Relation for Ice Anisotropy (ESTAR) F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006332
- Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.10
- A modified viscous flow law for natural glacier ice: Scaling from laboratories to ice sheets M. Ranganathan & B. Minchew https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2309788121
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 Nov 2026
Short summary
The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.
The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on...
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