Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry

Zeitz, Maria; Levermann, Anders; Winkelmann, Ricarda

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020

Articles | Volume 14, issue 10

Article
Peer review
Metrics
Related articles

Articles | Volume 14, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020

Articles | Volume 14, issue 10

Article
Peer review
Metrics
Related articles

Research article

27 Oct 2020

Research article |

| 27 Oct 2020

Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry

Maria Zeitz, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Maria Zeitz

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

maria.zeitz@pik-potsdam.de

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

Anders Levermann

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4432-4704

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

LDEO, Columbia University, New York, USA

Ricarda Winkelmann

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

ricarda.winkelmann@pik-potsdam.de

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1248-3217

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

Viewed

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

Total article views: 3,300 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
2,165	1,031	104	3,300	395	113	119

HTML: 2,165
PDF: 1,031
XML: 104
Total: 3,300
Supplement: 395
BibTeX: 113
EndNote: 119

Views and downloads (calculated since 07 Apr 2020)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 07 Apr 2020)

Total article views: 2,434 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
1,739	628	67	2,434	179	76	79

HTML: 1,739
PDF: 628
XML: 67
Total: 2,434
Supplement: 179
BibTeX: 76
EndNote: 79

Views and downloads (calculated since 27 Oct 2020)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2020	181	41	0	222
Nov 2020	97	38	2	137
Dec 2020	49	12	1	62
Jan 2021	59	14	0	73
Feb 2021	29	10	0	39
Mar 2021	34	5	0	39
Apr 2021	36	7	0	43
May 2021	32	11	2	45
Jun 2021	12	5	0	17
Jul 2021	19	8	1	28
Aug 2021	19	13	1	33
Sep 2021	30	13	0	43
Oct 2021	17	41	1	59
Nov 2021	26	30	1	57
Dec 2021	21	5	1	27
Jan 2022	25	15	1	41
Feb 2022	23	5	2	30
Mar 2022	44	9	0	53
Apr 2022	62	3	0	65
May 2022	46	9	2	57
Jun 2022	58	5	1	64
Jul 2022	51	2	0	53
Aug 2022	31	5	0	36
Sep 2022	42	5	1	48
Oct 2022	14	2	1	17
Nov 2022	13	16	0	29
Dec 2022	12	12	0	24
Jan 2023	22	19	2	43
Feb 2023	18	10	0	28
Mar 2023	23	13	0	36
Apr 2023	15	12	0	27
May 2023	21	11	0	32
Jun 2023	13	15	1	29
Jul 2023	7	7	1	15
Aug 2023	14	11	3	28
Sep 2023	11	9	1	21
Oct 2023	13	16	1	30
Nov 2023	9	4	1	14
Dec 2023	36	14	1	51
Jan 2024	23	16	1	40
Feb 2024	12	12	0	24
Mar 2024	22	21	2	45
Apr 2024	27	20	6	53
May 2024	27	6	9	42
Jun 2024	56	5	1	62
Jul 2024	25	13	1	39
Aug 2024	40	6	4	50
Sep 2024	29	2	0	31
Oct 2024	36	2	2	40
Nov 2024	28	8	2	38
Dec 2024	31	6	0	37
Jan 2025	34	5	3	42
Feb 2025	40	7	4	51
Mar 2025	25	17	3	45

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 27 Oct 2020)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2020	181	41	0	222
Nov 2020	97	38	2	137
Dec 2020	49	12	1	62
Jan 2021	59	14	0	73
Feb 2021	29	10	0	39
Mar 2021	34	5	0	39
Apr 2021	36	7	0	43
May 2021	32	11	2	45
Jun 2021	12	5	0	17
Jul 2021	19	8	1	28
Aug 2021	19	13	1	33
Sep 2021	30	13	0	43
Oct 2021	17	41	1	59
Nov 2021	26	30	1	57
Dec 2021	21	5	1	27
Jan 2022	25	15	1	41
Feb 2022	23	5	2	30
Mar 2022	44	9	0	53
Apr 2022	62	3	0	65
May 2022	46	9	2	57
Jun 2022	58	5	1	64
Jul 2022	51	2	0	53
Aug 2022	31	5	0	36
Sep 2022	42	5	1	48
Oct 2022	14	2	1	17
Nov 2022	13	16	0	29
Dec 2022	12	12	0	24
Jan 2023	22	19	2	43
Feb 2023	18	10	0	28
Mar 2023	23	13	0	36
Apr 2023	15	12	0	27
May 2023	21	11	0	32
Jun 2023	13	15	1	29
Jul 2023	7	7	1	15
Aug 2023	14	11	3	28
Sep 2023	11	9	1	21
Oct 2023	13	16	1	30
Nov 2023	9	4	1	14
Dec 2023	36	14	1	51
Jan 2024	23	16	1	40
Feb 2024	12	12	0	24
Mar 2024	22	21	2	45
Apr 2024	27	20	6	53
May 2024	27	6	9	42
Jun 2024	56	5	1	62
Jul 2024	25	13	1	39
Aug 2024	40	6	4	50
Sep 2024	29	2	0	31
Oct 2024	36	2	2	40
Nov 2024	28	8	2	38
Dec 2024	31	6	0	37
Jan 2025	34	5	3	42
Feb 2025	40	7	4	51
Mar 2025	25	17	3	45

Total article views: 866 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
426	403	37	866	216	37	40

HTML: 426
PDF: 403
XML: 37
Total: 866
Supplement: 216
BibTeX: 37
EndNote: 40

Views and downloads (calculated since 07 Apr 2020)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2020	181	41	0	222
Nov 2020	97	38	2	137
Dec 2020	49	12	1	62
Jan 2021	59	14	0	73
Feb 2021	29	10	0	39
Mar 2021	34	5	0	39
Apr 2021	36	7	0	43
May 2021	32	11	2	45
Jun 2021	12	5	0	17
Jul 2021	19	8	1	28
Aug 2021	19	13	1	33
Sep 2021	30	13	0	43
Oct 2021	17	41	1	59
Nov 2021	26	30	1	57
Dec 2021	21	5	1	27
Jan 2022	25	15	1	41
Feb 2022	23	5	2	30
Mar 2022	44	9	0	53
Apr 2022	62	3	0	65
May 2022	46	9	2	57
Jun 2022	58	5	1	64
Jul 2022	51	2	0	53
Aug 2022	31	5	0	36
Sep 2022	42	5	1	48
Oct 2022	14	2	1	17
Nov 2022	13	16	0	29
Dec 2022	12	12	0	24
Jan 2023	22	19	2	43
Feb 2023	18	10	0	28
Mar 2023	23	13	0	36
Apr 2023	15	12	0	27
May 2023	21	11	0	32
Jun 2023	13	15	1	29
Jul 2023	7	7	1	15
Aug 2023	14	11	3	28
Sep 2023	11	9	1	21
Oct 2023	13	16	1	30
Nov 2023	9	4	1	14
Dec 2023	36	14	1	51
Jan 2024	23	16	1	40
Feb 2024	12	12	0	24
Mar 2024	22	21	2	45
Apr 2024	27	20	6	53
May 2024	27	6	9	42
Jun 2024	56	5	1	62
Jul 2024	25	13	1	39
Aug 2024	40	6	4	50
Sep 2024	29	2	0	31
Oct 2024	36	2	2	40
Nov 2024	28	8	2	38
Dec 2024	31	6	0	37
Jan 2025	34	5	3	42
Feb 2025	40	7	4	51
Mar 2025	25	17	3	45

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 07 Apr 2020)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2020	181	41	0	222
Nov 2020	97	38	2	137
Dec 2020	49	12	1	62
Jan 2021	59	14	0	73
Feb 2021	29	10	0	39
Mar 2021	34	5	0	39
Apr 2021	36	7	0	43
May 2021	32	11	2	45
Jun 2021	12	5	0	17
Jul 2021	19	8	1	28
Aug 2021	19	13	1	33
Sep 2021	30	13	0	43
Oct 2021	17	41	1	59
Nov 2021	26	30	1	57
Dec 2021	21	5	1	27
Jan 2022	25	15	1	41
Feb 2022	23	5	2	30
Mar 2022	44	9	0	53
Apr 2022	62	3	0	65
May 2022	46	9	2	57
Jun 2022	58	5	1	64
Jul 2022	51	2	0	53
Aug 2022	31	5	0	36
Sep 2022	42	5	1	48
Oct 2022	14	2	1	17
Nov 2022	13	16	0	29
Dec 2022	12	12	0	24
Jan 2023	22	19	2	43
Feb 2023	18	10	0	28
Mar 2023	23	13	0	36
Apr 2023	15	12	0	27
May 2023	21	11	0	32
Jun 2023	13	15	1	29
Jul 2023	7	7	1	15
Aug 2023	14	11	3	28
Sep 2023	11	9	1	21
Oct 2023	13	16	1	30
Nov 2023	9	4	1	14
Dec 2023	36	14	1	51
Jan 2024	23	16	1	40
Feb 2024	12	12	0	24
Mar 2024	22	21	2	45
Apr 2024	27	20	6	53
May 2024	27	6	9	42
Jun 2024	56	5	1	62
Jul 2024	25	13	1	39
Aug 2024	40	6	4	50
Sep 2024	29	2	0	31
Oct 2024	36	2	2	40
Nov 2024	28	8	2	38
Dec 2024	31	6	0	37
Jan 2025	34	5	3	42
Feb 2025	40	7	4	51
Mar 2025	25	17	3	45

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

Total article views: 3,300 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 3,087 with geography defined and 213 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 2,434 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,329 with geography defined and 105 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 866 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 758 with geography defined and 108 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	1003	30
Germany	2	722	21
China	3	298	9
United Kingdom	4	132	4
France	5	107	3

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	728	29
Germany	2	459	18
China	3	277	11
United Kingdom	4	108	4
France	5	80	3

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	275	31
Germany	2	263	30
France	3	27	3
United Kingdom	4	24	2
China	5	21	2


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

1
1003

1003


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

728


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

275

Cited

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

11 citations as recorded by crossref.

Modelling the influence of marine ice on the dynamics of an idealised ice shelf L. Craw et al. 10.1017/jog.2022.66
Cool ice with hot properties S. Fan & D. Prior 10.1038/s41561-023-01330-z
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c M. Mas e Braga et al. 10.5194/tc-15-459-2021
The influence of glacial landscape evolution on Scandinavian ice-sheet dynamics and dimensions G. Jungdal-Olesen et al. 10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024
Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed J. Millstein et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00385-x
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending W. Buck 10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024
Theoretical stability of ice shelf basal crevasses with a vertical temperature profile N. Coffey et al. 10.1017/jog.2024.52
Modeling the Deformation Regime of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, Using a Simple Flow Relation for Ice Anisotropy (ESTAR) F. McCormack et al. 10.1029/2021JF006332
Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.10
A modified viscous flow law for natural glacier ice: Scaling from laboratories to ice sheets M. Ranganathan & B. Minchew 10.1073/pnas.2309788121

11 citations as recorded by crossref.

Modelling the influence of marine ice on the dynamics of an idealised ice shelf L. Craw et al. 10.1017/jog.2022.66
Cool ice with hot properties S. Fan & D. Prior 10.1038/s41561-023-01330-z
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c M. Mas e Braga et al. 10.5194/tc-15-459-2021
The influence of glacial landscape evolution on Scandinavian ice-sheet dynamics and dimensions G. Jungdal-Olesen et al. 10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024
Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed J. Millstein et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00385-x
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending W. Buck 10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024
Theoretical stability of ice shelf basal crevasses with a vertical temperature profile N. Coffey et al. 10.1017/jog.2024.52
Modeling the Deformation Regime of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, Using a Simple Flow Relation for Ice Anisotropy (ESTAR) F. McCormack et al. 10.1029/2021JF006332
Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.10
A modified viscous flow law for natural glacier ice: Scaling from laboratories to ice sheets M. Ranganathan & B. Minchew 10.1073/pnas.2309788121

Latest update: 27 Mar 2025

Download

Article (3282 KB)
Full-text XML

Supplement (3268 KB)
BibTeX
EndNote

Short summary

The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.

The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on...