Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Sep 2020
Research article |
| 16 Sep 2020
| 16 Sep 2020
Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
David Parkes
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth and Life Institute, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Hugues Goosse
Earth and Life Institute, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Related authors
No articles found.
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the Antarctic climate from 1985 to 2014. Our model is driven using the ERA-5 reanalysis for one simulation and the EC-Earth global climate model for three others. Most of the simulated trends, such as sea ice extent and precipitation over land, have opposite signs for the two drivers, but agree between the three EC-Earth driven simulations. We conclude that these opposing trends must be due to the different drivers, and that the climate over land is less predictable than over sea.
Hugues Goosse, Stephy Libera, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Benjamin Richaud, Alessandro Silvano, and Martin Vancoppenolle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1837, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The position of the winter sea ice edge in the Southern Ocean is strongly linked to the one of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and thus to ocean bathymetry. This is due to the influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current on the southward heat flux that limits sea ice expansion, directly through oceanic processes and indirectly through its influence on atmospheric heat transport.
Ting-Chen Chen, Hugues Goosse, Matthias Aengenheyster, Kristian Strommen, Christopher Roberts, Malcolm Roberts, Rohit Ghosh, Jin-Song von Storch, and Stephy Libera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-666, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a key driver of Southern Hemisphere climate variability, but global models often overestimate its persistence in summer. Using high-resolution models, we show this bias can be reduced, along with some improvements in jet latitude and likely a better-resolved eddy-mean flow feedback. Controlled experiments reveal the potential roles of sea surface temperature biases and ocean mesoscales, underscoring the complex mechanisms shaping SAM persistence.
Marie Genevieve Paule Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores in East Antarctica show contrasting records of past snowfall. We tested if large-scale weather patterns could explain this by combining ice core data with an atmospheric model and radar-derived errors. However, the reconstruction produced unrealistic wind patterns to fit the ice core records. We suggest that uncertainties are not fully captured and that small-scale local wind effects, not represented in the model, could significantly influence snowfall records in the ice cores.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Cited articles
Bahr, D., Meier, M., and Peckham, S.: The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 355–362, 1997. a
CGIAR-CSI: SRTM 90m Digital Elevation Data,
available at: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/ (last access: 30 April 2020), 2019. a
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S.,
Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D.,
Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea Level
Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of
Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 1137–1216, 2013. a
Cogley, J. G.: Geodetic and direct mass-balance measurements: comparison and
joint analysis, Ann. Glaciol., 50, 96–100,
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756409787769744, 2009. a
Daigle, D. and Kaufman, D.: Holocene climate inferred from glacier extent, lake
sediment and tree rings at Goat Lake, Kenai Mountains, Alaska, USA, J.
Quarternary Sci., 24, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1166, 2009. a
de Ferranti, J.: Viewfinder Panoramas DEM3, available at: http://viewfinderpanoramas.org/dem3.html (last access: 30 April 2020), 2019. a
Goosse, H., Barriat, P.-Y., Dalaiden, Q., Klein, F., Marzeion, B., Maussion, F., Pelucchi, P., and Vlug, A.: Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Harris, I., Osborn, T., Jones, P., and Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU TS
monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset, Sci.
Data, 7, 109, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3, 2020. a, b, c, d
Harrison, W., Elsberg, D., Echelmeyer, K., and Krimmel, R.: On the
characterization of glacier response by a single time-scale, J. Glaciol., 47,
659–664, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756501781831837, 2001. a
Hock, R., Bliss, A., Marzeion, B., and Giesen, R.: GlacierMIP – A model
intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections,
J. Glaciol., 65, 453–467, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22, 2019. a
Jóhannesson, T., Raymond, C., and Waddington, E.: Time-scale for adjustment
of glaciers to changes in mass balance, J. Glaciol., 35, 355–369, 1989. a
Kienholz, C., Rich, J. L., Arendt, A. A., and Hock, R.: A new method for deriving glacier centerlines applied to glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada, The Cryosphere, 8, 503–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-503-2014, 2014. a
Lüthi, M. P.: Little Ice Age climate reconstruction from ensemble reanalysis of Alpine glacier fluctuations, The Cryosphere, 8, 639–650, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-639-2014, 2014. a
Marzeion, B., Jarosch, A. H., and Hofer, M.: Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers, The Cryosphere, 6, 1295–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012, 2012. a, b
Marzeion, B., Jarosch, A. H., and Gregory, J. M.: Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change, The Cryosphere, 8, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, 2014. a
Maussion, F., Butenko, A., Champollion, N., Dusch, M., Eis, J., Fourteau, K., Gregor, P., Jarosch, A. H., Landmann, J., Oesterle, F., Recinos, B., Rothenpieler, T., Vlug, A., Wild, C. T., and Marzeion, B.: The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Maussion, F., Rothenpieler, T., Dusch, M., Recinos, B., Vlug, A., Marzeion, B., Landmann, J., Eis, J.,
Bartholomew, S., Champollion, N.,
Gregor, P., Butenko, A., Smith, S., and
Oberrauch, M.: OGGM/oggm: v1.1, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2580277, 2019b. a
Neukom, R., Steiger, N., Gomez-Navarro, J., Wang, J., and Werner, J.: No
evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial
Common Era, Nature, 571, 550–554, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2, 2019. a, b, c
NSIDC: Greenland Ice sheet Mapping Project (GIMP) Digital Elevation Model,
available at: https://nsidc.org/data/measures/gimp (last access: 30 April 2020), 2019. a
Oerlemans, J.: Glaciers as indicators of a carbon dioxide warming, Nature, 320,
607–609, https://doi.org/10.1038/320607a0, 1986. a
Oerlemans, J.: Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records, Science,
308, 675–677, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1107046, 2005. a
Oerlemans, J. and Reichert, B. K.: Relating glacier mass balance to
meteorological data by using a seasonal sensitivity characteristic, J.
Glaciol., 46, 1–6, 2000. a
PAGES 2k Consortium: Continental-scale temperature variability during the
last two millennia, Nature Geosci., 6, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797,
2013. a
PAGES 2k Consortium: A global multiproxy database for temperature
reconstructions of the Common Era, Scientific Data, 4, 170088, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88, 2017. a
PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 11, 1673–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015, 2015. a
Painter, T., Flanner, M., Kaser, G., Marzeion, B., VanCuren, R., and Abdalati,
W.: End of the Little Ice Age in the Alps forced by industrial black carbon,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 15216–15221,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302570110, 2014. a
Parkes, D. and Marzeion, B.: Twentieth-century contribution to sea-level rise
from uncharted glaciers, Nature, 563, 551–554,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0687-9, 2018. a, b, c
Raper, S. C. B. and Braithwaite, R. J.: Glacier volume response time and its links to climate and topography based on a conceptual model of glacier hypsometry, The Cryosphere, 3, 183–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-183-2009, 2009. a
Recinos, B., Maussion, F., Rothenpieler, T., and Marzeion, B.: Impact of frontal ablation on the ice thickness estimation of marine-terminating glaciers in Alaska, The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019. a
RGI Consortium: Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) – A Dataset of Global
Glacier Outlines: Version 6.0, https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60,
2017. a, b, c, d
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
a
Sicart, J., Hock, R., and Six, D.: Glacier melt, air temperature, and energy
balance in different climates: The Bolivian Tropics, the French Alps, and
northern Sweden, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D24113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010406, 2008. a
Sigl, M., Abram, N. J., Gabrieli, J., Jenk, T. M., Osmont, D., and Schwikowski, M.: 19th century glacier retreat in the Alps preceded the emergence of industrial black carbon deposition on high-alpine glaciers, The Cryosphere, 12, 3311–3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3311-2018, 2018. a
Solomina, O., Bradley, R. S., Jomelli, V., Geirsdottir, A., Kaufman, D., Koch, J.,
McKay, N., Masiokas, M., Miller, G., Nesje, A., Nicolussi, K., Owen, L.,
Putnam, A., Wanner, H., Wiles, G., and Yang, B.: Glacier fluctuations during
the past 2000 years, Quatern. Sci. Rev., 149, 61–90,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.04.008, 2016. a
Taylor, K., Stouffer, R., and Meehl, G.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the
Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
WGMS: Fluctuations of Glaciers Database, World glacier monitoring service, https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2019-12, 2019. a
WGMS and NSIDC: World Glacier Inventory,
available at: http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_inventory/index.html (last access: 30 April 2020), 1989. a
Zekollari, H., Huss, M., and Farinotti, D.: On the Imbalance and Response Time
of Glaciers in the European Alps, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085578,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085578, 2020. a
Zemp, M., Frey, H., Gärtner-Roer, I., Nussbaumer, S. U., Hoelzle, M., Paul,
F., Haeberli, W., Denzinger, F., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Anderson, B., Bajracharya,
S., Baroni, C., Braun, L. N., Cáceres, B. E., Casassa, G., Cobos, G.,
Dávila, L. R., Granados, H. D., Demuth, M. N., Espizua, L., Fischer, A.,
Fujita, K., Gadek, B., Ghazanfar, A., Hagen, J. O., Holmlund, P., Karimi, N.,
Li, Z., Pelto, M., Pitte, P., Popovnin, V. V., Portocarrero, C. A., Prinz,
R., Sangewar, C. V., Severskiy, I., Sigurdsson, O., Soruco, A., Usubaliev,
R., and Vincent, C.: Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the
early 21st century, J. Glaciol., 61, 745–762, 2015. a, b
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and...
