Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 31 Jul 2020
| 31 Jul 2020
The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing
John Erich Christian
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Alexander A. Robel
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Cristian Proistosescu
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, USA
Department of Geology, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, USA
Gerard Roe
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Michelle Koutnik
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Knut Christianson
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Glaciers respond slowly to changes in climate, meaning that they are not yet adjusted to the present-day level of warming. Using a simple model, we find that the median Alaskan glacier has undergone only 27 % of the retreat necessary to equilibrate to the current climate. Our findings hold even when accounting for large uncertainties, suggesting that substantial retreat is inevitable even if future warming slows or stabilizes.
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Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
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The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
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Glaciers respond slowly to changes in climate, meaning that they are not yet adjusted to the present-day level of warming. Using a simple model, we find that the median Alaskan glacier has undergone only 27 % of the retreat necessary to equilibrate to the current climate. Our findings hold even when accounting for large uncertainties, suggesting that substantial retreat is inevitable even if future warming slows or stabilizes.
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The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, 2022
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Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
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Trevor R. Hillebrand, John O. Stone, Michelle Koutnik, Courtney King, Howard Conway, Brenda Hall, Keir Nichols, Brent Goehring, and Mette K. Gillespie
The Cryosphere, 15, 3329–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, 2021
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Gerard H. Roe, John Erich Christian, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021
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Alan Huston, Nicholas Siler, Gerard H. Roe, Erin Pettit, and Nathan J. Steiger
The Cryosphere, 15, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1645-2021, 2021
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Andrew O. Hoffman, Knut Christianson, Daniel Shapero, Benjamin E. Smith, and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4603–4609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4603-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4603-2020, 2020
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The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered geometrically prone to collapse, and Thwaites Glacier, the largest glacier in the Amundsen Sea, is likely in the early stages of disintegration. Using observations of Thwaites Glacier velocity and elevation change, we show that the transport of ~2 km3 of water beneath Thwaites Glacier has only a small and transient effect on glacier speed relative to ongoing thinning driven by ocean melt.
Tyler J. Fudge, David A. Lilien, Michelle Koutnik, Howard Conway, C. Max Stevens, Edwin D. Waddington, Eric J. Steig, Andrew J. Schauer, and Nicholas Holschuh
Clim. Past, 16, 819–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-819-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-819-2020, 2020
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A 1750 m ice core at the South Pole was recently drilled. The oldest ice is ~55 000 years old. Since ice at the South Pole flows at 10 m per year, the ice in the core originated upstream, where the climate is different. We made measurements of the ice flow, snow accumulation, and temperature upstream. We determined the ice came from ~150 km away near the Titan Dome where the accumulation rate was similar but the temperature was colder. Our measurements improve the interpretation of the ice core.
Andrew O. Hoffman, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Knut Christianson, and Christine Hvidberg
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 8, 149–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-8-149-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-8-149-2019, 2019
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We present the design considerations and deployment of an autonomous modular terrestrial rover for ice-sheet exploration that is inexpensive, easy to construct, and allows for instrumentation customization. The rover proved capable of driving over 20 km on a single charge with a drawbar pull of 250 N, which is sufficient to tow commercial ground-penetrating radars. Due to its low cost, low power requirements, and simple modular design, mass deployments of this rover design are practicable.
Nicholas Holschuh, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Robert W. Jacobel, and Brian C. Welch
The Cryosphere, 12, 2821–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2821-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2821-2018, 2018
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Models of the Antarctic Sheet are tuned using observations of historic ice-sheet behavior, but we have few observations that tell us how inland ice behaved over the last few millennia. A 2 km tall volcano sitting under the ice sheet has left a record in the ice as it flows by, and that feature provides unique insight into the regional ice-flow history. It indicates that observed, rapid changes in West Antarctica flow dynamics have not affected the continental interior over the last 5700 years.
David E. Shean, Knut Christianson, Kristine M. Larson, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Ian R. Joughin, Ben E. Smith, C. Max Stevens, Mitchell Bushuk, and David M. Holland
The Cryosphere, 11, 2655–2674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2655-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2655-2017, 2017
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We used long-term GPS data and interferometric reflectometry (GPS-IR) to measure velocity, strain rate and surface elevation for the PIG ice shelf – a site of significant mass loss in recent decades. We combined these observations with high-res DEMs and firn model output to constrain surface mass balance and basal melt rates. We document notable spatial variability in basal melt rates but limited temporal variability from 2012 to 2014 despite significant changes in sub-shelf ocean heat content.
Alexander A. Robel, Christian Schoof, and Eli Tziperman
The Cryosphere, 10, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1883-2016, 2016
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Portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet edge that rest on upward-sloping beds have the potential to collapse irreversibly and raise global sea level. Using a numerical model, we show that changes in the slipperiness of sediments beneath fast-flowing ice streams can cause them to persist on upward-sloping beds for hundreds to thousands of years before reversing direction. This type of behavior is important to consider as a possibility when interpreting observations of ongoing ice sheet change.
Related subject area
Discipline: Glaciers | Subject: Numerical Modelling
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Increasing numerical stability of mountain valley glacier simulations: implementation and testing of free-surface stabilization in Elmer/Ice
Quantifying the Buttressing Contribution of Sea Ice to Crane Glacier
A new glacier thickness and bed map for Svalbard
A 3D glacier dynamics–line plume model to estimate the frontal ablation of Hansbreen, Svalbard
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf
Reconciling ice dynamics and bed topography with a versatile and fast ice thickness inversion
Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia
Modelling the development and decay of cryoconite holes in northwestern Greenland
Thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier in the inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan
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The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile
Modelling steady states and the transient response of debris-covered glaciers
Twentieth century global glacier mass change: an ensemble-based model reconstruction
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Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE
Brief communication: Time step dependence (and fixes) in Stokes simulations of calving ice shelves
Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model
Deep learning applied to glacier evolution modelling
Initialization of a global glacier model based on present-day glacier geometry and past climate information: an ensemble approach
Contrasting thinning patterns between lake- and land-terminating glaciers in the Bhutanese Himalaya
Impact of frontal ablation on the ice thickness estimation of marine-terminating glaciers in Alaska
Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model
Buoyant forces promote tidewater glacier iceberg calving through large basal stress concentrations
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
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The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
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This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1499, 2024
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In 2022, sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the sea ice was attached to the terminus of the glacier, it could provide a resistive stress against the glacier’s ice-flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the sea ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Ward van Pelt and Thomas Frank
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1525, 2024
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Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard’s glaciers is important for assessing the contribution to sea level rise in a present and future climate. However, direct observations of the glacier bed are scarce. Here, we use an inverse approach and high-resolution surface observations, to infer basal conditions. We present and analyze the new bed and thickness maps, quantify the ice volume (6,800 km3), and compare against radar data and previous studies.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
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A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
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Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
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Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Yukihiko Onuma, Koji Fujita, Nozomu Takeuchi, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 17, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, 2023
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We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in cryoconite hole (CH) depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole shape geometry. The simulations suggest that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the wind speed. The meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent ice surface darkening via the redistribution of CHs.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
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We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Loris Compagno, Matthias Huss, Evan Stewart Miles, Michael James McCarthy, Harry Zekollari, Amaury Dehecq, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1697–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, 2022
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We present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution. We implement the module into a combined mass-balance ice-flow model, and we apply it using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia. We show that glacier geometry, volume, and flow velocity evolve differently when modelling explicitly debris cover compared to glacier evolution without the debris-cover module, demonstrating the importance of accounting for debris.
Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flández, Deniz Bozkurt, and Ralf Greve
The Cryosphere, 15, 3637–3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, 2021
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We simulate the current state and future evolution of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile (40°S, 72°W) with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. Under different global warming scenarios, we project ice mass losses between 56 % and 97 % by the end of the 21st century. We quantify the uncertainties based on an ensemble of climate models and on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium line altitude. Our results suggest a considerable deglaciation in southern Chile in the next 80 years.
James C. Ferguson and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 3377–3399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, 2021
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Debris-covered glaciers have a greater extent than their debris-free counterparts due to insulation from the debris cover. However, the transient response to climate change remains poorly understood. We use a numerical model that couples ice dynamics and debris transport and varies the climate signal. We find that debris cover delays the transient response, especially for the extent. However, adding cryokarst features near the terminus greatly enhances the response.
Jan-Hendrik Malles and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 3135–3157, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, 2021
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To better estimate the uncertainty in glacier mass change modeling during the 20th century we ran an established model with an ensemble of meteorological data sets. We find that the total ensemble uncertainty, especially in the early 20th century, when glaciological and meteorological observations at glacier locations were sparse, increases considerably compared to individual ensemble runs. This stems from regions with a lot of ice mass but few observations (e.g., Greenland periphery).
Guillaume Jouvet, Stefan Röllin, Hans Sahli, José Corcho, Lars Gnägi, Loris Compagno, Dominik Sidler, Margit Schwikowski, Andreas Bauder, and Martin Funk
The Cryosphere, 14, 4233–4251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, 2020
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We show that plutonium is an effective tracer to identify ice originating from the early 1960s at the surface of a mountain glacier after a long time within the ice flow, giving unique information on the long-term former ice motion. Combined with ice flow modelling, the dating can be extended to the entire glacier, and we show that an airplane which crash-landed on the Gauligletscher in 1946 will likely soon be released from the ice close to the place where pieces have emerged in recent years.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
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We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Brandon Berg and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3209–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, 2020
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Computer models of ice sheets and glaciers are an important component of projecting sea level rise due to climate change. For models that seek to simulate the full balance of forces within the ice, if portions of the glacier are allowed to quickly break off in a process called iceberg calving, a numerical issue arises that can cause inaccurate results. We examine the issue and propose a solution so that future models can more accurately predict the future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
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Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Jordi Bolibar, Antoine Rabatel, Isabelle Gouttevin, Clovis Galiez, Thomas Condom, and Eric Sauquet
The Cryosphere, 14, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, 2020
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We introduce a novel approach for simulating glacier mass balances using a deep artificial neural network (i.e. deep learning) from climate and topographical data. This has been added as a component of a new open-source parameterized glacier evolution model. Deep learning is found to outperform linear machine learning methods, mainly due to its nonlinearity. Potential applications range from regional mass balance reconstructions from observations to simulations for past and future climates.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
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To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Shun Tsutaki, Koji Fujita, Takayuki Nuimura, Akiko Sakai, Shin Sugiyama, Jiro Komori, and Phuntsho Tshering
The Cryosphere, 13, 2733–2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, 2019
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We investigate thickness change of Bhutanese glaciers during 2004–2011 using repeat GPS surveys and satellite-based observations. The thinning rate of Lugge Glacier (LG) is > 3 times that of Thorthormi Glacier (TG). Numerical simulations of ice dynamics and surface mass balance (SMB) demonstrate that the rapid thinning of LG is driven by both negative SMB and dynamic thinning, while the thinning of TG is minimised by a longitudinally compressive flow regime.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
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We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
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Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
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Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
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Short summary
We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to...
