Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-877-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-877-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Apr 2017
Research article |
| 06 Apr 2017
Permafrost distribution modelling in the semi-arid Chilean Andes
Guillermo F. Azócar
Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Alexander Brenning
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany
Xavier Bodin
Laboratoire EDYTEM, Université de Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le
Bourget-du-Lac, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Zhihao Wang, Jason Goetz, and Alexander Brenning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8765–8784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A lack of inventory data can be a limiting factor in developing landslide predictive models, which are crucial for supporting hazard policy and decision-making. We show how case-based reasoning and domain adaptation (transfer-learning techniques) can effectively retrieve similar landslide modeling situations for prediction in new data-scarce areas. Using cases in Italy, Austria, and Ecuador, our findings support the application of transfer learning for areas that require rapid model development.
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
Jason Goetz, Robin Kohrs, Eric Parra Hormazábal, Manuel Bustos Morales, María Belén Araneda Riquelme, Cristián Henríquez, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2543–2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2543-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are fast-moving landslides that can cause incredible destruction to lives and property. Using the Andes of Santiago as an example, we developed tools to finetune and validate models predicting likely runout paths over large regions. We anticipate that our automated approach that links the open-source R software with SAGA-GIS will make debris-flow runout simulation more readily accessible and thus enable researchers and spatial planners to improve regional-scale hazard assessments.
Milan Flach, Alexander Brenning, Fabian Gans, Markus Reichstein, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Drought and heat events affect the uptake and sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We study the impact of droughts and heatwaves on the uptake of CO2 of different vegetation types at the global scale. We find that agricultural areas are generally strongly affected. Forests instead are not particularly sensitive to the events under scrutiny. This implies different water management strategies of forests but also a lack of sensitivity to remote-sensing-derived vegetation activity.
Nora Linscheid, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Alexander Brenning, Nuno Carvalhais, Felix Cremer, Fabian Gans, Anja Rammig, Markus Reichstein, Carlos A. Sierra, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 945–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation typically responds to variation in temperature and rainfall within days. Yet seasonal changes in meteorological conditions, as well as decadal climate variability, additionally shape the state of ecosystems. It remains unclear how vegetation responds to climate variability on these different timescales. We find that the vegetation response to climate variability depends on the timescale considered. This scale dependency should be considered for modeling land–atmosphere interactions.
Marco Marcer, Charlie Serrano, Alexander Brenning, Xavier Bodin, Jason Goetz, and Philippe Schoeneich
The Cryosphere, 13, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to assess the occurrence of rock glacier destabilization in the French Alps, a process that causes a landslide-like behaviour of permafrost debris slopes. A significant number of the landforms in the region were found to be experiencing destabilization. Multivariate analysis suggested a link between destabilization occurrence and permafrost thaw induced by climate warming. These results call for a regional characterization of permafrost hazards in the context of climate change.
Milan Flach, Sebastian Sippel, Fabian Gans, Ana Bastos, Alexander Brenning, Markus Reichstein, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 6067–6085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Northern forests enhanced their productivity during and before the 2010 Russian mega heatwave. We scrutinize this issue with a novel type of multivariate extreme event detection approach. Forests compensate for 54 % of the carbon losses in agricultural ecosystems due to vulnerable conditions in spring and better water management in summer. The findings highlight the importance of forests in mitigating climate change, while not alleviating the consequences of extreme events for food security.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
Stefan Steger, Alexander Brenning, Rainer Bell, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2729–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2729-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2729-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the propagation of landslide inventory-based positional errors into statistical landslide susceptibility models by artificially introducing such spatial inaccuracies. The findings highlight that (i) an increasing positional error is related to increasing distortions of modelling and validation results, (ii) interrelations between inventory-based errors and modelling results are complex, and (iii) inventory-based errors can be counteracted by adapting the study design.
A. Brenning, M. Schwinn, A. P. Ruiz-Páez, and J. Muenchow
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 45–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-45-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain roads in developing countries often increase landslide occurrence. In this study, landslide initiation frequency along interurban highways was investigated in the Ecuadorian Andes across different climates. Using statistical models, landslides were found to be about 20 times more likely to occur in close proximity to highways compared to areas in 200m distance from highways while accounting for other environmental factors. Road effects appear to be enhanced in some geological units.
Related subject area
Geomorphology
Characterizing ground ice content and origin to better understand the seasonal surface dynamics of the Gruben rock glacier and the adjacent Gruben debris-covered glacier (southern Swiss Alps)
Review article: Retrogressive thaw slump characteristics and terminology
The cryostratigraphy of thermo-erosion gullies in the Canadian High Arctic demonstrates the resilience of permafrost
History and dynamics of Fennoscandian Ice Sheet retreat, contemporary ice-dammed lake evolution, and faulting in the Torneträsk area, northwestern Sweden
A climate-driven, altitudinal transition in rock glacier dynamics detected through integration of geomorphological mapping and synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR)-based kinematics
Discriminating viscous-creep features (rock glaciers) in mountain permafrost from debris-covered glaciers – a commented test at the Gruben and Yerba Loca sites, Swiss Alps and Chilean Andes
Dynamical response of the southwestern Laurentide Ice Sheet to rapid Bølling–Allerød warming
Ice flow dynamics of the northwestern Laurentide Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation
Assessment of rock glaciers and their water storage in Guokalariju, Tibetan Plateau
In situ 10Be modeling and terrain analysis constrain subglacial quarrying and abrasion rates at Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ), Greenland
Identifying mountain permafrost degradation by repeating historical electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements
Asynchronous glacial dynamics of Last Glacial Maximum mountain glaciers in the Ikh Bogd Massif, Gobi Altai mountain range, southwestern Mongolia: aspect control on glacier mass balance
Permafrost degradation at two monitored palsa mires in north-west Finland
Comment on “Ice content and interannual water storage changes of an active rock glacier in the dry Andes of Argentina” by Halla et al. (2021)
Effects of topographic and meteorological parameters on the surface area loss of ice aprons in the Mont Blanc massif (European Alps)
Contrasted geomorphological and limnological properties of thermokarst lakes formed in buried glacier ice and ice-wedge polygon terrain
Formation of glacier tables caused by differential ice melting: field observation and modelling
Geomorphology and shallow sub-sea-floor structures underneath the Ekström Ice Shelf, Antarctica
Multi-decadal (1953–2017) rock glacier kinematics analysed by high-resolution topographic data in the upper Kaunertal, Austria
High-resolution inventory to capture glacier disintegration in the Austrian Silvretta
Recent degradation of interior Alaska permafrost mapped with ground surveys, geophysics, deep drilling, and repeat airborne lidar
Thaw-driven mass wasting couples slopes with downstream systems, and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks
Formation of ribbed bedforms below shear margins and lobes of palaeo-ice streams
Ice content and interannual water storage changes of an active rock glacier in the dry Andes of Argentina
Insights into a remote cryosphere: a multi-method approach to assess permafrost occurrence at the Qugaqie basin, western Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tibetan Plateau
A quasi-annual record of time-transgressive esker formation: implications for ice-sheet reconstruction and subglacial hydrology
Permafrost distribution and conditions at the headwalls of two receding glaciers (Schladming and Hallstatt glaciers) in the Dachstein Massif, Northern Calcareous Alps, Austria
Rock glacier characteristics serve as an indirect record of multiple alpine glacier advances in Taylor Valley, Antarctica
Ice-stream flow switching by up-ice propagation of instabilities along glacial marginal troughs
Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps
Glacial and geomorphic effects of a supraglacial lake drainage and outburst event, Everest region, Nepal Himalaya
Basal control of supraglacial meltwater catchments on the Greenland Ice Sheet
How dynamic are ice-stream beds?
Subglacial drainage patterns of Devon Island, Canada: detailed comparison of rivers and subglacial meltwater channels
Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale
Determining the terrain characteristics related to the surface expression of subsurface water pressurization in permafrost landscapes using susceptibility modelling
Internal structure of two alpine rock glaciers investigated by quasi-3-D electrical resistivity imaging
Rock glaciers on the run – understanding rock glacier landform evolution and recent changes from numerical flow modeling
Modeling debris-covered glaciers: response to steady debris deposition
The geomorphological effect of cornice fall avalanches in the Longyeardalen valley, Svalbard
An improved bathymetry compilation for the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, to inform ice-sheet and ocean models
Julie Wee, Sebastián Vivero, Tamara Mathys, Coline Mollaret, Christian Hauck, Christophe Lambiel, Jan Beutel, and Wilfried Haeberli
The Cryosphere, 18, 5939–5963, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights the importance of a multi-method and multi-disciplinary approach to better understand the influence of the internal structure of the Gruben glacier-forefield-connected rock glacier and adjacent debris-covered glacier on their driving thermo-mechanical processes and associated surface dynamics. We were able to discriminate glacial from periglacial processes as their spatio-temporal patterns of surface dynamics and geophysical signatures are (mostly) different.
Nina Nesterova, Marina Leibman, Alexander Kizyakov, Hugues Lantuit, Ilya Tarasevich, Ingmar Nitze, Alexandra Veremeeva, and Guido Grosse
The Cryosphere, 18, 4787–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4787-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4787-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are widespread in the Arctic permafrost landforms. RTSs present a big interest for researchers because of their expansion due to climate change. There are currently different scientific schools and terminology used in the literature on this topic. We have critically reviewed existing concepts and terminology and provided clarifications to present a useful base for experts in the field and ease the introduction to the topic for scientists who are new to it.
Samuel Gagnon, Daniel Fortier, Étienne Godin, and Audrey Veillette
The Cryosphere, 18, 4743–4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4743-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4743-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Thermo-erosion gullies (TEGs) are one of the most common forms of abrupt permafrost degradation. While their inception has been examined in several studies, the processes of their stabilization remain poorly documented. For this study, we investigated two TEGs in the Canadian High Arctic. We found that, while the formation of a TEG leaves permanent geomorphological scars in landscapes, in the long term, permafrost can recover to conditions similar to those pre-dating the initial disturbance.
Karlijn Ploeg and Arjen Peter Stroeven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2486, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mapping of glacial landforms using LiDAR data shows that the retreating margin of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet dammed a series of lakes in the Torneträsk Basin during deglaciation. These lakes were more extensive than previously thought and produced outburst floods. We show that sections of the Pärvie Fault, the longest glacially-activated fault of Sweden, ruptured at different times, both underneath and in front of the ice sheet, and during the existence of ice-dammed lake Torneträsk.
Aldo Bertone, Nina Jones, Volkmar Mair, Riccardo Scotti, Tazio Strozzi, and Francesco Brardinoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2335–2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2335-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional inventories display high uncertainty in discriminating between intact (permafrost-bearing) and relict (devoid) rock glaciers (RGs). Integration of InSAR-based kinematics in South Tyrol affords uncertainty reduction and depicts a broad elevation belt of relict–intact coexistence. RG velocity and moving area (MA) cover increase linearly with elevation up to an inflection at 2600–2800 m a.s.l., which we regard as a signature of sporadic-to-discontinuous permafrost transition.
Wilfried Haeberli, Lukas U. Arenson, Julie Wee, Christian Hauck, and Nico Mölg
The Cryosphere, 18, 1669–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1669-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rock glaciers in ice-rich permafrost can be discriminated from debris-covered glaciers. The key physical phenomenon relates to the tight mechanical coupling between the moving frozen body at depth and the surface layer of debris in the case of rock glaciers, as opposed to the virtually inexistent coupling in the case of surface ice with a debris cover. Contact zones of surface ice with subsurface ice in permafrost constitute diffuse landforms beyond either–or-type landform classification.
Sophie L. Norris, Martin Margold, David J. A. Evans, Nigel Atkinson, and Duane G. Froese
The Cryosphere, 18, 1533–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associated with climate change between the Last Glacial Maximum and the current interglacial period, we reconstruct the behaviour of the southwestern Laurentide Ice Sheet, which covered the Canadian Prairies, using detailed landform mapping. Our reconstruction depicts three shifts in the ice sheet’s dynamics. We suggest these changes resulted from ice sheet thinning triggered by abrupt climatic change. However, we show that regional lithology and topography also play an important role.
Benjamin J. Stoker, Helen E. Dulfer, Chris R. Stokes, Victoria H. Brown, Christopher D. Clark, Colm Ó Cofaigh, David J. A. Evans, Duane Froese, Sophie L. Norris, and Martin Margold
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-137, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The retreat of the northwestern Laurentide Ice Sheet allows us to investigate how the ice drainage network evolves over millennial timescales and understand the influence of climate forcing, glacial lakes, and the underlying geology on the rate of deglaciation. We reconstruct the changes in ice flow at 500-year intervals and identify rapid reorganisations of the drainage network, including variations in ice streaming that we link to climatically-driven changes in the ice sheet surface slope.
Mengzhen Li, Yanmin Yang, Zhaoyu Peng, and Gengnian Liu
The Cryosphere, 18, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We map a detailed rock glaciers inventory to further explore the regional distribution controlling factors, water storage, and permafrost probability distribution in Guokalariju. Results show that (i) the distribution of rock glaciers is controlled by the complex composition of topo-climate factors, increases in precipitation are conducive to rock glaciers forming at lower altitudes, and (ii) 1.32–3.60 km3 of water is stored in the rock glaciers, or ~ 59 % of the water glaciers presently store.
Brandon L. Graham, Jason P. Briner, Nicolás E. Young, Allie Balter-Kennedy, Michele Koppes, Joerg M. Schaefer, Kristin Poinar, and Elizabeth K. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 17, 4535–4547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial erosion is a fundamental process operating on Earth's surface. Two processes of glacial erosion, abrasion and plucking, are poorly understood. We reconstructed rates of abrasion and quarrying in Greenland. We derive a total glacial erosion rate of 0.26 ± 0.16 mm per year. We also learned that erosion via these two processes is about equal. Because the site is similar to many other areas covered by continental ice sheets, these results may be applied to many places on Earth.
Johannes Buckel, Jan Mudler, Rainer Gardeweg, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Regula Frauenfelder, Christof Kneisel, Sebastian Buchelt, Jan Henrik Blöthe, Andreas Hördt, and Matthias Bücker
The Cryosphere, 17, 2919–2940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study reveals permafrost degradation by repeating old geophysical measurements at three Alpine sites. The compared data indicate that ice-poor permafrost is highly affected by temperature warming. The melting of ice-rich permafrost could not be identified. However, complex geomorphic processes are responsible for this rather than external temperature change. We suspect permafrost degradation here as well. In addition, we introduce a new current injection method for data acquisition.
Purevmaa Khandsuren, Yeong Bae Seong, Hyun Hee Rhee, Cho-Hee Lee, Mehmet Akif Sarikaya, Jeong-Sik Oh, Khadbaatar Sandag, and Byung Yong Yu
The Cryosphere, 17, 2409–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Moraine is an awe-inspiring landscape in alpine areas and stores information on past climate. We measured the timing of moraine formation on the Ih Bogd Massif, southern Mongolia. Here, glaciers move synchronously as a response to changing climate; however, our glacier on the northern slope reached its maximum extent 3 millennia after the southern one. We ran a 2D ice surface model and found that the diachronous behavior of glaciers was real. Aspect also controls the mass of alpine glaciers.
Mariana Verdonen, Alexander Störmer, Eliisa Lotsari, Pasi Korpelainen, Benjamin Burkhard, Alfred Colpaert, and Timo Kumpula
The Cryosphere, 17, 1803–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study revealed a stable and even decreasing thickness of thaw depth in peat mounds with perennially frozen cores, despite overall rapid permafrost degradation within 14 years. This means that measuring the thickness of the thawed layer – a commonly used method – is alone insufficient to assess the permafrost conditions in subarctic peatlands. The study showed that climate change is the main driver of these permafrost features’ decay, but its effect depends on the peatland’s local conditions.
W. Brian Whalley
The Cryosphere, 17, 699–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Examination of recent Google Earth images of glaciers and rock glaciers in the
Dry Andeshas sufficient detail to show surface meltwater pools. These pools have exposures of glacier ice that core the rock glaciers with volume loss. Such pools are seen on debris-covered glaciers and rock glaciers worldwide and cast doubt on the
permafrostorigin of rock glaciers.
Suvrat Kaushik, Ludovic Ravanel, Florence Magnin, Yajing Yan, Emmanuel Trouve, and Diego Cusicanqui
The Cryosphere, 16, 4251–4271, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change impacts all parts of the cryosphere but most importantly the smaller ice bodies like ice aprons (IAs). This study is the first attempt on a regional scale to assess the impacts of the changing climate on these small but very important ice bodies. Our study shows that IAs have consistently lost mass over the past decades. The effects of climate variables, particularly temperature and precipitation and topographic factors, were analysed on the loss of IA area.
Stéphanie Coulombe, Daniel Fortier, Frédéric Bouchard, Michel Paquette, Simon Charbonneau, Denis Lacelle, Isabelle Laurion, and Reinhard Pienitz
The Cryosphere, 16, 2837–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2837-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2837-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Buried glacier ice is widespread in Arctic regions that were once covered by glaciers and ice sheets. In this study, we investigated the influence of buried glacier ice on the formation of Arctic tundra lakes on Bylot Island, Nunavut. Our results suggest that initiation of deeper lakes was triggered by the melting of buried glacier ice. Given future climate projections, the melting of glacier ice permafrost could create new aquatic ecosystems and strongly modify existing ones.
Marceau Hénot, Vincent J. Langlois, Jérémy Vessaire, Nicolas Plihon, and Nicolas Taberlet
The Cryosphere, 16, 2617–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2617-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier tables are structures frequently encountered on temperate glaciers. They consist of a rock supported by a narrow ice foot which forms through differential melting of the ice. In this article, we investigate their formation by following their dynamics on the Mer de Glace (the Alps, France). We explain this phenomenon by a combination of the effect of turbulent flux, short-wave flux and direct solar radiation that sets a critical size above which a rock will form a glacier table.
Astrid Oetting, Emma C. Smith, Jan Erik Arndt, Boris Dorschel, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Christoph Gaedicke, Coen Hofstede, Johann P. Klages, Gerhard Kuhn, Astrid Lambrecht, Andreas Läufer, Christoph Mayer, Ralf Tiedemann, Frank Wilhelms, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 16, 2051–2066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2051-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2051-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines a variety of geophysical measurements in front of and beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf in order to identify and interpret geomorphological evidences of past ice sheet flow, extent and retreat.
The maximal extent of grounded ice in this region was 11 km away from the continental shelf break.
The thickness of palaeo-ice on the calving front around the LGM was estimated to be at least 305 to 320 m.
We provide essential boundary conditions for palaeo-ice-sheet models.
Fabian Fleischer, Florian Haas, Livia Piermattei, Madlene Pfeiffer, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Jakob Rom, Manuel Stark, Michael H. Wimmer, Norbert Pfeifer, and Michael Becht
The Cryosphere, 15, 5345–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5345-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the long-term (1953–2017) morphodynamic changes in rock glaciers in Kaunertal valley, Austria. Using a combination of historical aerial photographs and laser scanning data, we derive information on flow velocities and surface elevation changes. We observe a loss of volume and an acceleration from the late 1990s onwards. We explain this by changes in the meteorological forcing. Individual rock glaciers react to these changes to varying degrees.
Andrea Fischer, Gabriele Schwaizer, Bernd Seiser, Kay Helfricht, and Martin Stocker-Waldhuber
The Cryosphere, 15, 4637–4654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Alpine glaciers have been receding since the Little Ice Age maximum, but until now the majority of glacier margins could be delineated unambiguously. Today the outlines of totally debris-covered glacier ice are fuzzy and raise the discussion if these features are still glaciers. We investigated the fate of glacier remnants with high-resolution elevation models, analyzing also thickness changes in buried ice. In the past 13 years, the 46 glaciers of Silvretta lost one-third of their area.
Thomas A. Douglas, Christopher A. Hiemstra, John E. Anderson, Robyn A. Barbato, Kevin L. Bjella, Elias J. Deeb, Arthur B. Gelvin, Patricia E. Nelsen, Stephen D. Newman, Stephanie P. Saari, and Anna M. Wagner
The Cryosphere, 15, 3555–3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3555-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3555-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost is actively degrading across high latitudes due to climate warming. We combined thousands of end-of-summer active layer measurements, permafrost temperatures, geophysical surveys, deep borehole drilling, and repeat airborne lidar to quantify permafrost warming and thawing at sites across central Alaska. We calculate the mass of permafrost soil carbon potentially exposed to thaw over the past 7 years (0.44 Pg) is similar to the yearly carbon dioxide emissions of Australia.
Steven V. Kokelj, Justin Kokoszka, Jurjen van der Sluijs, Ashley C. A. Rudy, Jon Tunnicliffe, Sarah Shakil, Suzanne E. Tank, and Scott Zolkos
The Cryosphere, 15, 3059–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3059-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3059-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-driven landslides are transforming glacially conditioned permafrost terrain, coupling slopes with aquatic systems, and triggering a cascade of downstream effects. Nonlinear intensification of thawing slopes is primarily affecting headwater systems where slope sediment yields overwhelm stream transport capacity. The propagation of effects across watershed scales indicates that western Arctic Canada will be an interconnected hotspot of thaw-driven change through the coming millennia.
Jean Vérité, Édouard Ravier, Olivier Bourgeois, Stéphane Pochat, Thomas Lelandais, Régis Mourgues, Christopher D. Clark, Paul Bessin, David Peigné, and Nigel Atkinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 2889–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Subglacial bedforms are commonly used to reconstruct past glacial dynamics and investigate processes occuring at the ice–bed interface. Using analogue modelling and geomorphological mapping, we demonstrate that ridges with undulating crests, known as subglacial ribbed bedforms, are ubiquitous features along ice stream corridors. These bedforms provide a tantalizing glimpse into (1) the former positions of ice stream margins, (2) the ice lobe dynamics and (3) the meltwater drainage efficiency.
Christian Halla, Jan Henrik Blöthe, Carla Tapia Baldis, Dario Trombotto Liaudat, Christin Hilbich, Christian Hauck, and Lothar Schrott
The Cryosphere, 15, 1187–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the semi-arid to arid Andes of Argentina, rock glaciers contain invisible and unknown amounts of ground ice that could become more important in future for the water availability during the dry season. The study shows that the investigated rock glacier represents an important long-term ice reservoir in the dry mountain catchment and that interannual changes of ground ice can store and release significant amounts of annual precipitation.
Johannes Buckel, Eike Reinosch, Andreas Hördt, Fan Zhang, Björn Riedel, Markus Gerke, Antje Schwalb, and Roland Mäusbacher
The Cryosphere, 15, 149–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-149-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents insights into the remote cryosphere of a mountain range at the Tibetan Plateau. Small-scaled studies and field data about permafrost occurrence are very scarce. A multi-method approach (geomorphological mapping, geophysics, InSAR time series analysis) assesses the lower occurrence of permafrost the range of 5350 and 5500 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Qugaqie basin. The highest, multiannual creeping rates up to 150 mm/yr are observed on rock glaciers.
Stephen J. Livingstone, Emma L. M. Lewington, Chris D. Clark, Robert D. Storrar, Andrew J. Sole, Isabelle McMartin, Nico Dewald, and Felix Ng
The Cryosphere, 14, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1989-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1989-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We map series of aligned mounds (esker beads) across central Nunavut, Canada. Mounds are interpreted to have formed roughly annually as sediment carried by subglacial rivers is deposited at the ice margin. Chains of mounds are formed as the ice retreats. This high-resolution (annual) record allows us to constrain the pace of ice retreat, sediment fluxes, and the style of drainage through time. In particular, we suggest that eskers in general record a composite signature of ice-marginal drainage.
Matthias Rode, Oliver Sass, Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Harald Schnepfleitner, and Christoph Gitschthaler
The Cryosphere, 14, 1173–1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1173-2020, 2020
Kelsey Winsor, Kate M. Swanger, Esther Babcock, Rachel D. Valletta, and James L. Dickson
The Cryosphere, 14, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We studied an ice-cored rock glacier in Taylor Valley, Antarctica, coupling ground-penetrating radar analyses with stable isotope and major ion geochemistry of (a) surface ponds and (b) buried clean ice. These analyses indicate that the rock glacier ice is fed by a nearby alpine glacier, recording multiple Holocene to late Pleistocene glacial advances. We demonstrate the potential to use rock glaciers and buried ice, common throughout Antarctica, to map previous glacial extents.
Etienne Brouard and Patrick Lajeunesse
The Cryosphere, 13, 981–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-981-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-981-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Modifications in ice-stream networks have major impacts on ice sheet mass balance and global sea level. However, the mechanisms controlling ice-stream switching remain poorly understood. We report a flow switch in an ice-stream system that occurred on the Baffin Island shelf through the erosion of a marginal trough. Up-ice propagation of ice streams through marginal troughs can lead to the piracy of neighboring ice catchments, which induces an adjacent ice-stream switch and shutdown.
Marco Marcer, Charlie Serrano, Alexander Brenning, Xavier Bodin, Jason Goetz, and Philippe Schoeneich
The Cryosphere, 13, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to assess the occurrence of rock glacier destabilization in the French Alps, a process that causes a landslide-like behaviour of permafrost debris slopes. A significant number of the landforms in the region were found to be experiencing destabilization. Multivariate analysis suggested a link between destabilization occurrence and permafrost thaw induced by climate warming. These results call for a regional characterization of permafrost hazards in the context of climate change.
Evan S. Miles, C. Scott Watson, Fanny Brun, Etienne Berthier, Michel Esteves, Duncan J. Quincey, Katie E. Miles, Bryn Hubbard, and Patrick Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 12, 3891–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3891-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3891-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution satellite imagery and field visits to assess the growth and drainage of a lake on Changri Shar Glacier in the Everest region, and its impact. The lake filled and drained within 3 months, which is a shorter interval than would be detected by standard monitoring protocols, but forced re-routing of major trails in several locations. The water appears to have flowed beneath Changri Shar and Khumbu glaciers in an efficient manner, suggesting pre-existing developed flow paths.
Josh Crozier, Leif Karlstrom, and Kang Yang
The Cryosphere, 12, 3383–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3383-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding ice sheet surface meltwater routing is important for modeling and predicting ice sheet evolution. We determined that bed topography underlying the Greenland Ice Sheet is the primary influence on 1–10 km scale ice surface topography, and on drainage-basin-scale surface meltwater routing. We provide a simple means of predicting the response of surface meltwater routing to changing ice flow conditions and explore the implications of this for subglacial hydrology.
Damon Davies, Robert G. Bingham, Edward C. King, Andrew M. Smith, Alex M. Brisbourne, Matteo Spagnolo, Alastair G. C. Graham, Anna E. Hogg, and David G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 12, 1615–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the dynamics of ice stream beds using repeat geophysical surveys of the bed of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica; 60 km of the bed was surveyed, comprising the most extensive repeat ground-based geophysical surveys of an Antarctic ice stream; 90 % of the surveyed bed shows no significant change despite the glacier increasing in speed by up to 40 % over the last decade. This result suggests that ice stream beds are potentially more stable than previously suggested.
Anna Grau Galofre, A. Mark Jellinek, Gordon R. Osinski, Michael Zanetti, and Antero Kukko
The Cryosphere, 12, 1461–1478, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1461-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Water accumulated at the base of ice sheets is the main driver of glacier acceleration and loss of ice mass in Arctic regions. Previously glaciated landscapes sculpted by this water carry information about how ice sheets collapse and ultimately disappear. The search for these landscapes took us to the high Arctic, to explore channels that formed under kilometers of ice during the last ice age. In this work we describe how subglacial channels look and how they helped to drain an ice sheet.
Simon Zwieback, Steven V. Kokelj, Frank Günther, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 12, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse elevation losses at thaw slumps, at which icy sediments are exposed. As ice requires a large amount of energy to melt, one would expect that mass wasting is governed by the available energy. However, we observe very little mass wasting in June, despite the ample energy supply. Also, in summer, mass wasting is not always energy limited. This highlights the importance of other processes, such as the formation of a protective veneer, in shaping mass wasting at sub-seasonal scales.
Jean E. Holloway, Ashley C. A. Rudy, Scott F. Lamoureux, and Paul M. Treitz
The Cryosphere, 11, 1403–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1403-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Below ground pressurization occurs when there is more moisture in the soil pores than normal, and it can potentially result in landscape degradation. We mapped features that are caused by this overpressurization and generated susceptibility maps to find other areas on the landscape that could be susceptible in the future. The susceptibility maps identified areas that may be sensitive to pressurization and help improve our understanding of potentially hazardous permafrost degradation.
Adrian Emmert and Christof Kneisel
The Cryosphere, 11, 841–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-841-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-841-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the internal structure of two alpine rock glaciers to derive information on their development. Through a 3-D mapping of the electrical resistivity distribution of the subsurface, we could detect variations of ice content and delimit frozen and unfrozen structures. Our study shows that the development of the investigated rock glaciers is influenced by not only creep processes and remnant ice from past glaciations but also recently buried ice patches and refreezing meltwater.
Johann Müller, Andreas Vieli, and Isabelle Gärtner-Roer
The Cryosphere, 10, 2865–2886, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2865-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2865-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Rock glaciers are landforms indicative of permafrost creep and received considerable attention concerning their dynamical and thermal changes. We use a holistic approach to analyze and model the current and long-term dynamical development of two rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps. The modeling results show the impact of variations in temperature and sediment–ice supply on rock glacier evolution and describe proceeding signs of degradation due to climate warming.
Leif S. Anderson and Robert S. Anderson
The Cryosphere, 10, 1105–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1105-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1105-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Mountains erode and shed rocks down slope. When these rocks (debris) fall on glacier ice they can suppress ice melt. By protecting glaciers from melt, debris can make glaciers extend to lower elevations. Using mathematical models of glaciers and debris deposition, we find that debris can more than double the length of glaciers. The amount of debris deposited on the glacier, which scales with mountain height and steepness, is the most important control on debris-covered glacier length and volume.
M. Eckerstorfer, H. H. Christiansen, L. Rubensdotter, and S. Vogel
The Cryosphere, 7, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1361-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1361-2013, 2013
A. G. C. Graham, F. O. Nitsche, and R. D. Larter
The Cryosphere, 5, 95–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-95-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-95-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Apaloo, J., Brenning, A., and Bodin, X.: Interactions between seasonal snow cover, ground surface temperature and topography (Andes of Santiago, Chile 33.5° S), Permafrost Periglac., 23, 277–291, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1753, 2012.
Azócar, G.: Modeling of permafrost distribution in the Semi-arid Chilean Andes, MS thesis, University of Waterloo, Canada, 160 pp., 2013.
Azócar, G. and Brenning A.: Hydrological and geomorphological significance of rock glaciers in the dry Andes, Chile (27°–33° S), Permafrost Periglac., 21, 42–53, 2010.
Barry, R. G.: Mountain weather and climate, Routledge, New York, 1992.
Barsch, D.: Rockglaciers: Indicators for the present and former geoecology in high mountain environments, Springer, Berlin, Germany, 1996.
Birkeland, P. W.: Use of relative age-dating methods in a stratigraphic study of rock glacier deposits, Mt. Sopris, Colorado, Artic Alpine Res., 5, 401–416, 1973.
Bodin, X., Krysiecki, J. M., and Iribarren Anacona, P.: Recent collapse of rock glaciers: two study cases in the Alps and in the Andes, in: Proceedings of the 12th Congress Interpraevent, Grenoble (France), April 2012, edited by: Koboltschnig, G., Hübl, J., and Braun, J., International Research Society INTERPRAEVENT, 2012.
Boeckli, L., Brenning, A., Gruber, S., and Noetzli, J.: A statistical approach to modelling permafrost distribution in the European Alps or similar mountain ranges, The Cryosphere, 6, 125–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-125-2012, 2012a.
Boeckli, L., Brenning, A., Gruber, S., and Noetzli, J.: Permafrost distribution in the European Alps: calculation and evaluation of an index map and summary statistics, The Cryosphere, 6, 807–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-807-2012, 2012b.
Bommer, C., Phillips, M., and Arenson, L. U.: Practical recommendations for planning, constructing and maintaining infrastructure in mountain permafrost, Permafrost Periglac., 21, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.679, 2010.
Brenning, A.: Climatic and geomorphological controls of rock glacier in the Andes of central of Chile, Ph.D. thesis, Humboldt-Universität, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät II, Berlin, Germany, 153 pp., 2005a.
Brenning, A.: Geomorphological, hydrological and climatic significance of rock glaciers in the Andes of central Chile (33–35° S), Permafrost Periglac., 16, 231–240, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.528, 2005b.
Brenning, A.: The impact of mining on rock glaciers and glaciers, in: Darkening peaks: glacier retreat, science, and society, edited by: Orlove, B., Wiegandt, E., and Luckman, B., University of California, Berkeley, 196–205, 2008.
Brenning, A.: RSAGA: SAGA geoprocessing and terrain analysis in R. R package version 0.93-1, 2011.
Brenning, A.: Spatial cross-validation and bootstrap for the assessment of prediction rules in remote sensing: The R package “sperrorest”, IEEE International Symposium on Geoscience and Remote Sensing IGARSS, Munich, Germany, 22–27 July 2012, 5372–5375, 2012.
Brenning, A. and Azócar, G.: Minería y glaciares rocosos: impactos ambientales, antecedentes políticos y legales, y perspectivas futuras, Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 47, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-34022010000300008, 2010a.
Brenning, A. and Azócar, G. F.: Statistical analysis of topographic and climatic controls and multispectral signatures of rock glaciers in the dry Andes, Chile (27°–33° S), Permafrost Periglac., 21, 54–66, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.670, 2010b.
Brenning, A., Peña, M. A., Long, S., and Soliman, A.: Thermal remote sensing of ice-debris landforms using ASTER: an example from the Chilean Andes, The Cryosphere, 6, 367–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-367-2012, 2012.
Caine, N.: Recent hydrologic change in a Colorado alpine basin: an indicator of permafrost thaw?, Ann. Glaciol., 51, 130–134, 2010.
Centro de Estudios de Zonas Áridas (CEAZA): Caracterización y monitoreo de glaciares rocosos en la cuenca del río Elqui, y Balance de masa del glaciar Tapado, Dirección General de Aguas, Unidad de Glaciología y Nieves, Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Santiago, 2012.
Conrad, O., Bechtel, B., Bock, M., Dietrich, H., Fischer, E., Gerlitz, L., Wehberg, J., Wichmann, V., and Böhner, J.: System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) v. 2.1.4, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1991–2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1991-2015, 2015.
Contreras, A.: Meteorological data compañía minera Disputada de Las Condes, Anglo American, 2005.
Deluigi, N. and Lambiel, C.: PERMAL: a machine learning approach for alpine permafrost distribution modeling, Jahrestagung der Schweizerischen Geomorphologischen Gesellschaft, St. Niklaus, Birmensdorf, Eidg. Forschungsanstalt, WSL, 29 June–1 July 2011, 47–62, 2011.
Falvey, M. and Garreaud R. D.: Regional cooling in a warming world: recent temperature trend in the southeast Pacific and along the west coast of subtropical South America (1979–2006), J. Geophys. Res., 114, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010519, 2009.
Favier, V., Flavey, M., Rabatel, A., Praderio, E., and López, D.: Interpreting discrepancies between discharge and precipitation in high-altitude area of Chile's Norte Chico region (26–32° S), Water Resour. Res., 45, W02424, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006802, 2009.
Gascoin, S., Kinnard, C., Ponce, R., Lhermitte, S., MacDonell, S., and Rabatel, A.: Glacier contribution to streamflow in two headwaters of the Huasco River, Dry Andes of Chile, The Cryosphere, 5, 1099–1113, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-1099-2011, 2011.
Gates, D. M.: Biophysical ecology, Dover Publications Inc., Mineola, New York, USA, 1980.
Gilleland, E.: Verification package, R package version 2.15.1.0, 2012.
Goetz, J. N., Guthrie, R. H., and Brenning, A.: Integrating physical empirical landslide susceptibility models using generalized additive models, Geomorphology, 129, 376–386, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.03.001, 2011.
Gruber, S.: Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation, The Cryosphere, 6, 221–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-221-2012, 2012.
Gruber, S. and Haeberli, W.: Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature related destabilization following climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F02S18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000547, 2007.
Gruber, S., Hoelzle, M., and Haeberli, W.: Rock-wall temperatures in the Alps: Modelling their topographic distribution and regional differences, Permafrost Periglac., 15, 299–307, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.501, 2004.
Guisan, A., Edwards, T. C., and Hastie, T.: Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distribution: setting the scene, Ecol. Model., 157, 89–100, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00204-1, 2002.
Haeberli, W.: Mountain permafrost-research frontiers and a special long-term challenge, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 96, 71–76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.02.004, 2013.
Haeberli, W., Guodong, C., Gorbunov, A. P., and Harris, S. A.: Mountain permafrost and climate change, Permafrost Periglac., 4, 165–174, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.3430040208, 1993.
Harris, C., Arenson, L. U., Christiansen, H. H., Etzelmüller, B., Frauenfelder, R., Gruber, S., Haeberli, W., Hauck, C., Hölzle, M., Humlum, O., Isaksen, K., Kääb, A., Kern-Lütschg, M., Lehning, M., Matsuoka, N., Murton, J., Nötzli, J., Phillips, M., Ross, N., Seppälä, M., Springman, S., and Mühll., V.: Permafrost and climate in Europe: Monitoring and modelling thermal, geomorphological and geotechnical responses, Earth-Sci. Rev., 92, 117–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2008.12.002, 2009.
Hastie, T.: Generalized additive models, R package version 1.08, 2013.
Hastie, T. J. and Tibshirani, R. J.: Generalized additive models, Chapman and Hall, UK, 1990.
Hiebl, J., Auer, I., Böhm, R., Schöner, W., Maugeri, M., Lentini, G., Spinoni, J., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Tadić, M., Perčec Bihari, Z., Dolinar, M., and Müller-Westermeier, G.: A high-resolution 1961–1990 monthly temperature climatology for the greater Alpine region, Meteorol. Z., 18, 507–530, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0403, 2009.
Hoelzle, M., Mittaz, C., Etzelmüller, B., and Haeberli, W.: Surface energy fluxes and distribution models of permafrost in European mountain areas: An overview of current developments, Permafrost Periglac., 12, 53–68, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp385, 2001.
Hosmer, D. W. and Lemeshow, S.: Applied logistic regression, John Wiley & Sons Inc., USA, 2000.
Janet, F.: Predicting the distribution of shrub species in southern California from climate and terrain-derived variables, J. Veg. Sci., 9, 733–748, https://doi.org/10.2307/3237291, 1998.
Janke, J.: Modeling past and future alpine permafrost, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 30, 1495–1580, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1205, 2005.
Janke, J. R., Bellisario, A. C., and Ferrando, F. A.: Classification of debris-covered glaciers and rock glaciers in the Andes of central Chile, Geomorphology, 241, 98–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.03.034, 2015.
Kääb, A., Huggel, C., Fischer, L., Guex, S., Paul, F., Roer, I., Salzmann, N., Schlaefli, S., Schmutz, K., Schneider, D., Strozzi, T., and Weidmann, Y.: Remote sensing of glacier- and permafrost-related hazards in high mountains: an overview, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 527–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-527-2005, 2005.
Kull, C., Grosjean, M., and Veit, H.: Modeling modern and late pleistocene glacio-climatological conditions in the North Chilean Andes, Clim. Change, 52, 359–381, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013746917257, 2002.
Lee, H. and Hogsett, W.: Interpotaltion of temperature and non-urban ozone exposure at high spatial resolution over the western United States, Clim. Res., 18, 163–179, 2001.
Lewkowicz, A. and Ednie, M.: Probability mapping of mountain permafrost using the BTS method, Wolf Creek, Yukon Territory, Canada, Permafrost Periglac., 15, 67–80, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.480, 2004.
Lo, Y., Blanco, J., Seely, B., Welham, C., and Kimmins, J.: Generating reliable meteorological data in mountainous areas with scarce presence of weather records: The performance of MTCLIM in interior British Columbia, Canada, Environ. Model. Softw., 26, 644-657, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.11.005, 2011.
Monnier, S. and Kinnard, C.: Internal structure and composition of a rock glacier in the Andes (upper Choapa valley, Chile) using borehole information and ground-penetrating radar, Ann. Glaciol., 54, 61–72, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013AoG64A107, 2013.
Monnier, S. and Kinnard, C.: Reconsidering the glacier to rock glacier transformation problem: New insights from the central Andes of Chile, Geomorphology, 238, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.02.025, 2015a.
Monnier, S. and Kinnard, C.: Internal structure and composition of a rock glacier in the Dry Andes, inferred from ground-penetrating radar data and its artefacts, Permafrost Periglac., 26, 335–346, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1846, 2015b.
Monnier, S. and Kinnard, C.: Interrogating the time and processes of development of the Las Liebres rock glacier, central Chilean Andes, using a numerical flow model, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 41, 1884–1893, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3956, 2016.
Monnier, S., Bodet, L., Camerlynch, C. M., Dhemaied, A., Galibert, P., Kinnard, C., Vitale, Q., and Saéz, R.: Advanced seismic and GPR survey of a rock glacier in the Upper Choapa Valley, semi-arid Andes of Chile, American Geophysics Union, 2011 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, 5–9 December, 2011.
Monnier, S., Kinnard, C., Surazakov, A., and Bossy, W.: Geomorphology, internal structure, and successive development of a glacier foreland in the semiarid Chilean Andes (Cerro Tapado, upper Elqui Valley, 30°08′ S, 69°55′ W), Geomorphology, 207, 126–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.10.031, 2013.
Nicholson, L., Marín, J., López, D., Rabatel, A., Bown, F., and Rivera, A.: Glacier inventory of the upper Huasco valley, Norte Chico, Chile: Glacier characteristics, glacier change and comparison with central Chile, Ann. Glaciol., 50, 111–118, 2009.
Pinheiro, J. and Bates, M.: Mixed-effects models in S and S-Plus, Springer-Verlag, New York, USA, 2000.
Putnam, A. and David, P.: Inactive and relict rock glaciers of the Deboullie lakes ecological reserve, Northern Maine, USA, J. Quaternary Sci., 4, 773-784. https://doi.org/10.1002/ jqs.1252, 2009.
R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2012.
Rabatel, A., Castebrunet, H., Favier, V., Nicholson, L., and Kinnard, C.: Glacier changes in the Pascua-Lama region, Chilean Andes (29° S): recent mass balance and 50 yr surface area variations, The Cryosphere, 5, 1029–1041, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-1029-2011, 2011.
Roer, I. and Nyenhuis, M.: Rockglacier activity studies on a regional scale: comparison of geomorphological mapping and photogrammetric monitoring, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 32, 1747–1758, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1496, 2007.
Saito, K., Trombotto, D., Yoshikawa, K., Mori, J., Sone, T., Marchenko, S., Romanovsky, V., Walsh, J., Hendricks, A., and Bottegal, E.: Late quaternary permafrost distribution downscaled for South America: Examinations of GCM-based maps with observations, Permafrost Periglac., 27, 43–55, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1863, 2015.
Sattler, K., Anderson, B., Mackintosh, A., Norton, K., and Róiste, M.: Estimating permafrost distribution in the Maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, based on climatic conditions at rock glacier sites, Front. Earth Sci., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00004, 2016.
Schoeneich, P., Bodin, X., Echelard, T., Kaufmann, V., Kellerer-Pirklbauer, A., Krysiecki, J.-M., and Lieb, G. K.: Velocity changes of rock glaciers and induced hazards, in: Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, Springer, 1, 223–227, 2015.
Squeo, F., Veit, H., Arancio, G., Gutierrez, J. R., Arroyo, M. T., and Olivares, N.: Spatial heterogeneity of high mountain vegetation in the Andean desert zone of Chile, Mt. Res. Dev., 13, 203–209, 1993.
Tachikawa, T., Hato, M., Kaku, M., and Iwasaki, A.: Characteristics of ASTER GDEM version 2, 2011 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 24–29 July 2011, 3657–3660, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2011.6050017, 2011.
Taillant, J. D.: Glaciers, The Politics of ice, Oxford University, New York, USA, 2015.
Twisk, J.: Applied multilevel analysis: A practical guide, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2006.
Unidad de Gestión de Proyectos del Instituto de Geografía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (UGP UC): Dinámica de glaciares rocosos, Dirección General de Aguas, Unidad de Glaciología y Nieves, Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Santiago, 2010.
Whiteman, D. C.: Mountain meteorology fundamental and applications, New York, USA, Oxford University Press, 2000.
Wood, S. N.: Generalized additive models – An introduction with R, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 2006.
Short summary
We present in this work a new statistical permafrost distribution model that provided a more detailed, locally adjusted insights into mountain permafrost distribution in the semi-arid Chilean Andes. The results indicate conditions favorable for permafrost presence, can be present in up to about 6.8 % of the study area (1051 km2), especially in the Elqui and Huasco watersheds. This kind of methodological approach used in this research can be replicable in another parts of the Andes.
We present in this work a new statistical permafrost distribution model that provided a more...
Special issue