Articles | Volume 10, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-3071-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-3071-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Dec 2016
Research article |
| 21 Dec 2016
Strain localization and dynamic recrystallization in the ice–air aggregate: a numerical study
Florian Steinbach
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University Tübingen,
72074 Tübingen, Germany
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, 27568 Bremerhaven, Germany
Paul D. Bons
Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University Tübingen,
72074 Tübingen, Germany
Albert Griera
Departament de Geologia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193
Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain
Daniela Jansen
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, 27568 Bremerhaven, Germany
Maria-Gema Llorens
Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University Tübingen,
72074 Tübingen, Germany
Jens Roessiger
Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University Tübingen,
72074 Tübingen, Germany
Ilka Weikusat
Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University Tübingen,
72074 Tübingen, Germany
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, 27568 Bremerhaven, Germany
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Ernst-Jan N. Kuiper, Johannes H. P. de Bresser, Martyn R. Drury, Jan Eichler, Gill M. Pennock, and Ilka Weikusat
The Cryosphere, 14, 2449–2467, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2449-2020, 2020
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Fast ice flow occurs in deeper parts of polar ice sheets, driven by high stress and high temperatures. Above 262 K ice flow is further enhanced, probably by the formation of thin melt layers between ice crystals. A model applying an experimentally derived composite flow law, using temperature and grain size values from the deepest 540 m of the NEEM ice core, predicts that flow in fine-grained layers is enhanced by a factor of 10 compared to coarse-grained layers in the Greenland ice sheet.
Chao Qi, David J. Prior, Lisa Craw, Sheng Fan, Maria-Gema Llorens, Albert Griera, Marianne Negrini, Paul D. Bons, and David L. Goldsby
The Cryosphere, 13, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-351-2019, 2019
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Ice deformed in nature develops crystallographic preferred orientations, CPOs, which induce an anisotropy in ice viscosity. Shear experiments of ice revealed a transition in CPO with changing temperature/strain, which is due to the change of dominant CPO-formation mechanism: strain-induced grain boundary migration dominates at higher temperatures and lower strains, while lattice rotation dominates at other conditions. Understanding these mechanisms aids the interpretation of CPOs in natural ice.
Jilu Li, Jose A. Vélez González, Carl Leuschen, Ayyangar Harish, Prasad Gogineni, Maurine Montagnat, Ilka Weikusat, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, and John Paden
The Cryosphere, 12, 2689–2705, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2689-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2689-2018, 2018
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Ice properties inferred from multi-polarization measurements can provide insight into ice strain, viscosity, and ice flow. The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets used a ground-based radar for multi-channel and multi-polarization measurements at the NEEM site. This paper describes the radar system, antenna configurations, data collection, and processing and analysis of this data set. Comparisons between the radar observations, simulations, and ice core fabric data are in very good agreement.
Johanna Kerch, Anja Diez, Ilka Weikusat, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1715–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1715-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1715-2018, 2018
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We investigate the effect of crystal anisotropy on seismic velocities in glacier ice by calculating seismic phase velocities using the exact c axis angles to describe the crystal orientations in ice-core samples for an alpine and a polar ice core. Our results provide uncertainty estimates for earlier established approximative calculations. Additionally, our findings highlight the variation in seismic velocity at non-vertical incidence as a function of the horizontal azimuth of the seismic plane.
Peter Kuipers Munneke, Daniel McGrath, Brooke Medley, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, Bernd Kulessa, Daniela Jansen, Adam Booth, Paul Smeets, Bryn Hubbard, David Ashmore, Michiel Van den Broeke, Heidi Sevestre, Konrad Steffen, Andrew Shepherd, and Noel Gourmelen
The Cryosphere, 11, 2411–2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, 2017
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How much snow falls on the Larsen C ice shelf? This is a relevant question, because this ice shelf might collapse sometime this century. To know if and when this could happen, we found out how much snow falls on its surface. This was difficult, because there are only very few measurements. Here, we used data from automatic weather stations, sled-pulled radars, and a climate model to find that melting the annual snowfall produces about 20 cm of water in the NE and over 70 cm in the SW.
Ilka Weikusat, Ernst-Jan N. Kuiper, Gill M. Pennock, Sepp Kipfstuhl, and Martyn R. Drury
Solid Earth, 8, 883–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-883-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-883-2017, 2017
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Understanding the flow of large ice masses on Earth is a major challenge in our changing climate. Deformation mechanisms are governed by the strong anisotropy of ice. As anisotropy is currently moving into the focus of ice sheet flow studies, we provide a detailed analysis of microstructure data from natural ice core samples which directly relate to anisotropic plasticity. Our findings reveal surprising dislocation activity which seems to contradict the concept of macroscopic ice anisotropy.
Jan Eichler, Ina Kleitz, Maddalena Bayer-Giraldi, Daniela Jansen, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Wataru Shigeyama, Christian Weikusat, and Ilka Weikusat
The Cryosphere, 11, 1075–1090, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1075-2017, 2017
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This study contributes to investigations of the effect of impurities on ice microstructure and flow properties. For the first time we mapped over 5000 micro-inclusions in four samples from the EDML and NEEM polar ice cores. The particle distributions show no correlation with grain boundaries and thus we conclude that particle pinning plays only a secondary role for the microstructure evolution. Alternative mechanisms are discussed.
D. Jansen, M.-G. Llorens, J. Westhoff, F. Steinbach, S. Kipfstuhl, P. D. Bons, A. Griera, and I. Weikusat
The Cryosphere, 10, 359–370, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-359-2016, 2016
Short summary
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In this study we present examples of typical small-scale folds observed in the NEEM ice core, North Greenland, and discuss their characteristics. Numerical modelling of viscoplastic deformation and dynamic recrystallisation was used to improve the understanding of the formation of the observed structures under simple shear boundary conditions. We conclude that the folds originate from bands of grains with a tilted lattice relative to the strong lattice preferred orientation below 1500 m depth.
D. Jansen, A. J. Luckman, A. Cook, S. Bevan, B. Kulessa, B. Hubbard, and P. R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 9, 1223–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015, 2015
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Within the last year, a large rift in the southern part of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, propagated towards the inner part of the ice shelf. In this study we present the development of the rift as derived from remote sensing data and assess the impact of possible calving scenarios on the future stability of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, using a numerical model. We find that the calving front is likely to become unstable after the anticipated calving events.
E. Gomez-Rivas, A. Griera, and M.-G. Llorens
Solid Earth, 6, 497–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-497-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-497-2015, 2015
Z. Zhao, P. D. Bons, G. Wang, A. Soesoo, and Y. Liu
Solid Earth, 6, 457–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-457-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-457-2015, 2015
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The early Mesozoic tectonic history of the Qiangtang terrane in central Tibet is hotly debated. We argue that the north and south Qiangtang terranes were separated by an ocean (Paleo-Tethys) until the late Triassic. Subduction was mainly to the north, underneath the north Qiangtang terrane. The high-pressure rocks were exhumed in a lithospheric-scale core complex. Together with non-metamorphic sedimentary and ophiolitic mélange, these were finally thrust on top of the south Qiangtang.
A. Diez, O. Eisen, C. Hofstede, A. Lambrecht, C. Mayer, H. Miller, D. Steinhage, T. Binder, and I. Weikusat
The Cryosphere, 9, 385–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-385-2015, 2015
M. Montagnat, N. Azuma, D. Dahl-Jensen, J. Eichler, S. Fujita, F. Gillet-Chaulet, S. Kipfstuhl, D. Samyn, A. Svensson, and I. Weikusat
The Cryosphere, 8, 1129–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1129-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1129-2014, 2014
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Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia
Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer
Modelling the development and decay of cryoconite holes in northwestern Greenland
The effect of partial dissolution on sea-ice chemical transport: a combined model–observational study using poly- and perfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs)
Deep learning subgrid-scale parametrisations for short-term forecasting of sea-ice dynamics with a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate
Impact of atmospheric forcing uncertainties on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice simulations in CMIP6 OMIP models
Arctic sea ice mass balance in a new coupled ice–ocean model using a brittle rheology framework
Snow cover prediction in the Italian central Apennines using weather forecast and land surface numerical models
Alexander H. Jarosch, Paul Hofer, and Christoph Spötl
The Cryosphere, 18, 4811–4816, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4811-2024, 2024
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Mechanical damage to stalagmites is commonly observed in mid-latitude caves. In this study we investigate ice flow along the cave bed as a possible mechanism for stalagmite damage. Utilizing models which simulate forces created by ice flow, we study the structural integrity of different stalagmite geometries. Our results suggest that structural failure of stalagmites caused by ice flow is possible, albeit unlikely.
Cecile B. Menard, Sirpa Rasmus, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Annett Bartsch, Chris Derksen, Florent Domine, Marie Dumont, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard Essery, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerhard Krinner, David Lawrence, Glen Liston, Heidrun Matthes, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Martin Schneebeli, and Sari Stark
The Cryosphere, 18, 4671–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, 2024
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Computer models, like those used in climate change studies, are written by modellers who have to decide how best to construct the models in order to satisfy the purpose they serve. Using snow modelling as an example, we examine the process behind the decisions to understand what motivates or limits modellers in their decision-making. We find that the context in which research is undertaken is often more crucial than scientific limitations. We argue for more transparency in our research practice.
Giulia Mazzotti, Jari-Pekka Nousu, Vincent Vionnet, Tobias Jonas, Rafife Nheili, and Matthieu Lafaysse
The Cryosphere, 18, 4607–4632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, 2024
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As many boreal and alpine forests have seasonal snow, models are needed to predict forest snow under future environmental conditions. We have created a new forest snow model by combining existing, very detailed model components for the canopy and the snowpack. We applied it to forests in Switzerland and Finland and showed how complex forest cover leads to a snowpack layering that is very variable in space and time because different processes prevail at different locations in the forest.
Xu Zhou, Binbin Wang, Xiaogang Ma, Zhu La, and Kun Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4589–4605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4589-2024, 2024
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The simulation of the ice phenology of Nam Co by WRF is investigated. Compared with the default model, improving the key lake schemes, such as water surface roughness length for heat fluxes and the shortwave radiation transfer for lake ice, can better simulate the lake ice phenology. The still existing errors in the spatial patterns of lake ice phenology imply that challenges still exist in modelling key lake and non-lake physics such as grid-scale water circulation and snow-related processes.
Amir Sedaghatkish, Frédéric Doumenc, Pierre-Yves Jeannin, and Marc Luetscher
The Cryosphere, 18, 4531–4546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate the natural convection of water within frozen rock crevices subject to daily warming in mountain permafrost regions. Traditional models relying on conduction and latent heat flux typically overlook free convection. The results reveal that free convection can significantly accelerate the melting rate by an order of magnitude compared to conduction-based models. Our results are important for assessing the impact of climate change on mountain infrastructure.
Joseph Fogarty, Elie Bou-Zeid, Mitchell Bushuk, and Linette Boisvert
The Cryosphere, 18, 4335–4354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, 2024
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We hypothesize that using a broad set of surface characterization metrics for polar sea ice surfaces will lead to more accurate representations in general circulation models. However, the first step is to identify the minimum set of metrics required. We show via numerical simulations that sea ice surface patterns can play a crucial role in determining boundary layer structures. We then statistically analyze a set of high-resolution sea ice surface images to obtain this minimal set of parameters.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
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We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
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Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Tim Hageman, Jessica Mejía, Ravindra Duddu, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 3991–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, 2024
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Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.
Clémence Herny, Pascal Hagenmuller, Guillaume Chambon, Isabel Peinke, and Jacques Roulle
The Cryosphere, 18, 3787–3805, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3787-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3787-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the evaluation of a numerical discrete element method (DEM) by simulating cone penetration tests in different snow samples. The DEM model demonstrated a good ability to reproduce the measured mechanical behaviour of the snow, namely the force evolution on the cone and the grain displacement field. Systematic sensitivity tests showed that the mechanical response depends not only on the microstructure of the sample but also on the mechanical parameters of grain contacts.
Louis Quéno, Rebecca Mott, Paul Morin, Bertrand Cluzet, Giulia Mazzotti, and Tobias Jonas
The Cryosphere, 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3533-2024, 2024
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Snow redistribution by wind and avalanches strongly influences snow hydrology in mountains. This study presents a novel modelling approach to best represent these processes in an operational context. The evaluation of the simulations against airborne snow depth measurements showed remarkable improvement in the snow distribution in mountains of the eastern Swiss Alps, with a representation of snow accumulation and erosion areas, suggesting promising benefits for operational snow melt forecasts.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
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This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Baron, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, César Deschamps-Berger, Vincent Vionnet, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 18, 3081–3116, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, 2024
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Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations with snow transport against snow depths from Pléiades stereo imagery and snow melt-out dates from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellites. Additionally, we disentangle error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation heterogeneity, and unresolved subgrid variability. Snow transport enhances the snow simulations at high elevations, while precipitation biases are the main error source in other areas.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1499, 2024
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In 2022, sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the sea ice was attached to the terminus of the glacier, it could provide a resistive stress against the glacier’s ice-flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the sea ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Christopher Riedel and Jeffrey Anderson
The Cryosphere, 18, 2875–2896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2875-2024, 2024
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Accurate sea ice conditions are crucial for quality sea ice projections, which have been connected to rapid warming over the Arctic. Knowing which observations to assimilate into models will help produce more accurate sea ice conditions. We found that not assimilating sea ice concentration led to more accurate sea ice states. The methods typically used to assimilate observations in our models apply assumptions to variables that are not well suited for sea ice because they are bounded variables.
Julia Selivanova, Doroteaciro Iovino, and Francesco Cocetta
The Cryosphere, 18, 2739–2763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024, 2024
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Climate models show differences in sea ice representation in comparison to observations. Increasing the model resolution is a recognized way to improve model realism and obtain more reliable future projections. We find no strong impact of resolution on sea ice representation; it rather depends on the analysed variable and the model used. By 2050, the marginal ice zone (MIZ) becomes a dominant feature of the Arctic ice cover, suggesting a shift to a new regime similar to that in Antarctica.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
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The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1040, 2024
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The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest flowing glacier in Greenland which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and interannual flow speed variations most accurately.
Georgina Jean Woolley, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Vincent Vionnet, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Philip Marsh, Rosamund Tutton, Branden Walker, Matthieu Lafaysse, and David Pritchard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1237, 2024
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Parameterisations of Arctic snow processes were implemented into the multi-physics ensemble version of SVS2-Crocus and evaluated using density and SSA measurements at an Arctic tundra site. Optimal combinations of parameterisations that improved the simulation of density and SSA were identified. Top performing ensemble members featured modifications that raise wind speeds to increase compaction in surface layers, prevent snowdrift and increase viscosity in basal layers.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
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A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Ben Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1005, 2024
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Our research delves into the future ice loss in Antarctica’s Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its impact on sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. According to our best model results, under high-emission scenarios, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300, potentially raising global sea levels by up to 0.34 m by 2500.
Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Guillaume Boutin, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 18, 1791–1815, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, 2024
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This paper focuses on predicting Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power of 12 h up to 6 months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modeling with deep learning proves to be effective at capturing the complex behavior of sea ice.
Mathieu Plante, Jean-François Lemieux, L. Bruno Tremblay, Adrienne Tivy, Joey Angnatok, François Roy, Gregory Smith, Frédéric Dupont, and Adrian K. Turner
The Cryosphere, 18, 1685–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, 2024
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We use a sea ice model to reproduce ice growth observations from two buoys deployed on coastal sea ice and analyze the improvements brought by new physics that represent the presence of saline liquid water in the ice interior. We find that the new physics with default parameters degrade the model performance, with overly rapid ice growth and overly early snow flooding on top of the ice. The performance is largely improved by simple modifications to the ice growth and snow-flooding algorithms.
Joshua Cuzzone, Matias Romero, and Shaun A. Marcott
The Cryosphere, 18, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, 2024
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We simulate the retreat history of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) across the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka. These results improve our understanding of the response of the PIS to deglacial warming and the patterns of deglacial ice margin retreat where gaps in the geologic record still exist, and they indicate that changes in large-scale precipitation during the last deglaciation played an important role in modulating the response of ice margin change across the PIS to deglacial warming.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, and Dake Chen
The Cryosphere, 18, 1215–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024, 2024
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We present a new atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model to study the influences of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation. Our results show (1) smaller ice-floe size with wave breaking increases ice melt, (2) the responses in the atmosphere and ocean to smaller floe size partially reduce the effect of the enhanced ice melt, (3) the limited oceanic energy is a strong constraint for ice melt enhancement, and (4) ocean waves can indirectly affect sea ice through the atmosphere and the ocean.
Yurii Batrak, Bin Cheng, and Viivi Kallio-Myers
The Cryosphere, 18, 1157–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric reanalyses provide consistent series of atmospheric and surface parameters in a convenient gridded form. In this paper, we study the quality of sea ice in a recently released regional reanalysis and assess its added value compared to a global reanalysis. We show that the regional reanalysis, having a more complex sea ice model, gives an improved representation of sea ice, although there are limitations indicating potential benefits in using more advanced approaches in the future.
Michael A. Rawlins and Ambarish V. Karmalkar
The Cryosphere, 18, 1033–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, 2024
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Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
Oreste Marquis, Bruno Tremblay, Jean-François Lemieux, and Mohammed Islam
The Cryosphere, 18, 1013–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, 2024
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We developed a standard viscous–plastic sea-ice model based on the numerical framework called smoothed particle hydrodynamics. The model conforms to the theory within an error of 1 % in an idealized ridging experiment, and it is able to simulate stable ice arches. However, the method creates a dispersive plastic wave speed. The framework is efficient to simulate fractures and can take full advantage of parallelization, making it a good candidate to investigate sea-ice material properties.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-285, 2024
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The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow-atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Soňa Tomaškovičová and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, 2024
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We present the results of a fully coupled modeling framework for simulating the ground thermal regime using only surface measurements to calibrate the thermal model. The heat conduction model is forced by surface ground temperature measurements and calibrated using the field measurements of time lapse apparent electrical resistivity. The resistivity-calibrated thermal model achieves a performance comparable to the traditional calibration of borehole temperature measurements.
Yan Huang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, Yiliang Ma, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 18, 103–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, 2024
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Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is an important factor affecting the basal thermal environment of an ice sheet and crucial for its dynamics. But it is poorly defined for the Antarctic ice sheet. We simulate the basal temperature and basal melting rate with eight different GHF datasets. We use specularity content as a two-sided constraint to discriminate between local wet or dry basal conditions. Two medium-magnitude GHF distribution maps rank well, showing that most of the inland bed area is frozen.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023
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The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
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Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
George Lu and Jonathan Kingslake
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2794, 2023
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Water below ice sheets affects ice-sheet motion, while the evolution of ice sheets likewise affects the water below. We create a model that allows for water and ice to affect each other, and use it to see how this coupling or lack thereof may impact ice-sheet retreat. We find that coupling an evolving water system with the ice sheet results in more retreat than if we assume unchanging conditions under the ice, which indicates a need to better represent the effects of water in ice-sheet models.
Michael Wolovick, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, and Martin Rückamp
The Cryosphere, 17, 5027–5060, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, 2023
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The friction underneath ice sheets can be inferred from observed velocity at the top, but this inference requires smoothing. The selection of smoothing has been highly variable in the literature. Here we show how to rigorously select the best smoothing, and we show that the inferred friction converges towards the best knowable field as model resolution improves. We use this to learn about the best description of basal friction and to formulate recommended best practices for other modelers.
Oliver G. Pollard, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely, and Lachlan C. Astfalck
The Cryosphere, 17, 4751–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, 2023
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We use advanced statistical techniques and a simple ice-sheet model to produce an ensemble of plausible 3D shapes of the ice sheet that once stretched across northern Europe during the previous glacial maximum (140,000 years ago). This new reconstruction, equivalent in volume to 48 ± 8 m of global mean sea-level rise, will improve the interpretation of high sea levels recorded from the Last Interglacial period (120 000 years ago) that provide a useful perspective on the future.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
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Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
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We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
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The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Huy Dinh, Dimitrios Giannakis, Joanna Slawinska, and Georg Stadler
The Cryosphere, 17, 3883–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3883-2023, 2023
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We develop a numerical method to simulate the fracture in kilometer-sized chunks of floating ice in the ocean. Our approach uses a mathematical model that balances deformation energy against the energy required for fracture. We study the strength of ice chunks that contain random impurities due to prior damage or refreezing and what types of fractures are likely to occur. Our model shows that crack direction critically depends on the orientation of impurities relative to surrounding forces.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Yukihiko Onuma, Koji Fujita, Nozomu Takeuchi, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 17, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, 2023
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We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in cryoconite hole (CH) depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole shape geometry. The simulations suggest that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the wind speed. The meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent ice surface darkening via the redistribution of CHs.
Max Thomas, Briana Cate, Jack Garnett, Inga J. Smith, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Crispin Halsall
The Cryosphere, 17, 3193–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, 2023
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A recent study showed that pollutants can be enriched in growing sea ice beyond what we would expect from a perfectly dissolved chemical. We hypothesise that this effect is caused by the specific properties of the pollutants working in combination with fluid moving through the sea ice. To test our hypothesis, we replicate this behaviour in a sea-ice model and show that this type of modelling can be applied to predicting the transport of chemicals with complex behaviour in sea ice.
Tobias Sebastian Finn, Charlotte Durand, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Yumeng Chen, Alberto Carrassi, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 17, 2965–2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2965-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2965-2023, 2023
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We combine deep learning with a regional sea-ice model to correct model errors in the sea-ice dynamics of low-resolution forecasts towards high-resolution simulations. The combined model improves the forecast by up to 75 % and thereby surpasses the performance of persistence. As the error connection can additionally be used to analyse the shortcomings of the forecasts, this study highlights the potential of combined modelling for short-term sea-ice forecasting.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
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The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
The Cryosphere, 17, 1935–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1935-2023, 2023
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This study provides clues on how improved atmospheric reanalysis products influence sea ice simulations in ocean–sea ice models. The summer ice concentration simulation in both hemispheres can be improved with changed surface heat fluxes. The winter Antarctic ice concentration and the Arctic drift speed near the ice edge and the ice velocity direction simulations are improved with changed wind stress. The radiation fluxes and winds in atmospheric reanalyses are crucial for sea ice simulations.
Guillaume Boutin, Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, Heather Regan, Camille Lique, Claude Talandier, Laurent Brodeau, and Robert Ricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, 2023
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Sea ice cover in the Arctic is full of cracks, which we call leads. We suspect that these leads play a role for atmosphere–ocean interactions in polar regions, but their importance remains challenging to estimate. We use a new ocean–sea ice model with an original way of representing sea ice dynamics to estimate their impact on winter sea ice production. This model successfully represents sea ice evolution from 2000 to 2018, and we find that about 30 % of ice production takes place in leads.
Edoardo Raparelli, Paolo Tuccella, Valentina Colaiuda, and Frank S. Marzano
The Cryosphere, 17, 519–538, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-519-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the skills of a single-layer (Noah) and a multi-layer (Alpine3D) snow model, forced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to reproduce snowpack properties observed in the Italian central Apennines. We found that Alpine3D reproduces the observed snow height and snow water equivalent better than Noah, while no particular model differences emerge on snow cover extent. Finally, we observed that snow settlement is mainly due to densification in Alpine3D and to melting in Noah.
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Short summary
How glaciers or ice sheets flow is a result of microscopic processes controlled by the properties of individual ice crystals. We performed computer simulations on these processes and the effect of air bubbles between crystals. The simulations show that small-scale ice deformation is locally stronger than in other regions, which is enhanced by bubbles. This causes the ice crystals to recrystallise and change their properties in a way that potentially also affects the large-scale flow properties.
How glaciers or ice sheets flow is a result of microscopic processes controlled by the...
