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Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
Brief communication
 | Highlight paper
 | 
21 Feb 2025
Brief communication | Highlight paper |  | 21 Feb 2025

Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science

William H. Lipscomb, David Behar, and Monica Ainhorn Morrison

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Cited articles

Bamber, J. L. and Aspinall, W. P.: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 424–427, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1778, 2013. a
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195–11200, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116, 2019. a, b, c
Bassis, J. N., Berg, B., Crawford, A. J., and Benn, D. I.: Transition to marine ice cliff instability controlled by ice thickness gradients and velocity, Science, 372, 1342–1344, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf6271, 2021. a
Behar, D.: Challenges and Opportunities in Adapting to Climate Change: Perspectives from Utilities, in: Proceedings of the First National Expert and Stakeholder Workshop on Water Infrastructure Sustainability and Adaptation to Climate Change, 6–7 January 2009, EPA-600-R-09-010, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 5–6, https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?Lab=NRMRL&dirEntryId=203725 (last access: 5 February 2025), 2009. a
Boston Research Advisory Group: Climate Ready Boston: Climate Change and Sea Level Projections for Boston, https://www.boston.gov/sites/default/files/file/2023/03/2016_climate_ready_boston_report.pdf (last access: 21 October 2024), 2016. a
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Editorial statement
For most countries dealing with the consequences of sea-level rise, a constructive discussion about actionable science is critical. There is a need to strengthen the lines of evidence for sea-level projections and at the same time there is a strong need for practitioners to understand which science they should rely on to plan adaptation actions. This manuscript outlines when scientific results may be considered actionable and discusses the risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. The case study discussed in the manuscript is also valid for other climate-change-related fields.
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Short summary
As communities try to adapt to climate change, they look for "actionable science" that can inform decision-making. There are risks in relying on novel results that are not yet accepted by the science community. We propose a practical criterion for determining which scientific claims are actionable. We show how premature acceptance of sea-level-rise predictions can lead to confusion and backtracking, and we suggest best practices for communication between scientists and adaptation planners.
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