Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Mar 2024
Research article |
| 12 Mar 2024
| 12 Mar 2024
Understanding the influence of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation: a modeling study with an atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model
Chao-Yuan Yang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, Guangdong, China
Jiping Liu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, Guangdong, China
Dake Chen
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, Guangdong, China
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Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Fengguan Gu, Qinghua Yang, Frank Kauker, Changwei Liu, Guanghua Hao, Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, Petra Heil, Xuewei Li, and Bo Han
The Cryosphere, 16, 1873–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1873-2022, 2022
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The sea ice thickness was simulated by a single-column model and compared with in situ observations obtained off Zhongshan Station in the Antarctic. It is shown that the unrealistic precipitation in the atmospheric forcing data leads to the largest bias in sea ice thickness and snow depth modeling. In addition, the increasing snow depth gradually inhibits the growth of sea ice associated with thermal blanketing by the snow.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, and Dake Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1155–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022, 2022
Short summary
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We present an improved coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice prediction. We perform Arctic sea ice prediction experiments with improved/updated physical parameterizations, which show better skill in predicting sea ice state as well as atmospheric and oceanic state in the Arctic compared with its predecessor. The improved model also shows extended predictive skill of Arctic sea ice after the summer season. This provides an added value of this prediction system for decision-making.
Chenhui Ning, Shiming Xu, Yan Zhang, Xuantong Wang, Zhihao Fan, and Jiping Liu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-29, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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Sea ice models are mainly based on non-moving structured grids, which is different from the buoy measurements that follow the ice drift. To facilitate Lagrangian analysis, we introduce online tracking of sea ice in the CICE model. We validate the sea ice tracking with buoys, and further evaluate the sea ice deformations in high-resoltuion simulations, which show multi-fractal characteristics. The source code is openly available and can be used in various scientific and operational applications.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Shijie Peng, Qinghua Yang, Matthew D. Shupe, Xingya Xi, Bo Han, Dake Chen, Sandro Dahlke, and Changwei Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8683–8703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8683-2023, 2023
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Due to a lack of observations, the structure of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains to be further explored. By analyzing a year-round radiosonde dataset collected over the Arctic sea-ice surface, we found the annual cycle of the ABL height (ABLH) is primarily controlled by the evolution of ABL thermal structure, and the surface conditions also show a high correlation with ABLH variation. In addition, the Arctic ABLH is found to be decreased in summer compared with 20 years ago.
Fengguan Gu, Qinghua Yang, Frank Kauker, Changwei Liu, Guanghua Hao, Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, Petra Heil, Xuewei Li, and Bo Han
The Cryosphere, 16, 1873–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1873-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sea ice thickness was simulated by a single-column model and compared with in situ observations obtained off Zhongshan Station in the Antarctic. It is shown that the unrealistic precipitation in the atmospheric forcing data leads to the largest bias in sea ice thickness and snow depth modeling. In addition, the increasing snow depth gradually inhibits the growth of sea ice associated with thermal blanketing by the snow.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, and Dake Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1155–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1155-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice prediction. We perform Arctic sea ice prediction experiments with improved/updated physical parameterizations, which show better skill in predicting sea ice state as well as atmospheric and oceanic state in the Arctic compared with its predecessor. The improved model also shows extended predictive skill of Arctic sea ice after the summer season. This provides an added value of this prediction system for decision-making.
Xuewei Li, Qinghua Yang, Lejiang Yu, Paul R. Holland, Chao Min, Longjiang Mu, and Dake Chen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-359, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-359, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
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The Arctic sea ice thickness record minimum is confirmed occurring in autumn 2011. The dynamic and thermodynamic processes leading to the minimum thickness is analyzed based on a daily sea ice thickness reanalysis data covering the melting season. The results demonstrate that the dynamic transport of multiyear ice and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice thickness in 2011.
Related subject area
Discipline: Sea ice | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Using Icepack to reproduce ice mass balance buoy observations in landfast ice: improvements from the mushy-layer thermodynamics
Sea ice cover in the Copernicus Arctic Regional Reanalysis
Smoothed particle hydrodynamics implementation of the standard viscous–plastic sea-ice model and validation in simple idealized experiments
Phase-field models of floe fracture in sea ice
Data-driven surrogate modeling of high-resolution sea-ice thickness in the Arctic
The effect of partial dissolution on sea-ice chemical transport: a combined model–observational study using poly- and perfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs)
Deep learning subgrid-scale parametrisations for short-term forecasting of sea-ice dynamics with a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology
Impact of atmospheric forcing uncertainties on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice simulations in CMIP6 OMIP models
Arctic sea ice mass balance in a new coupled ice–ocean model using a brittle rheology framework
Wave-triggered breakup in the marginal ice zone generates lognormal floe size distributions: a simulation study
Exploring the capabilities of electrical resistivity tomography to study subsea permafrost
Sea ice floe size: its impact on pan-Arctic and local ice mass and required model complexity
A probabilistic seabed–ice keel interaction model
The effect of changing sea ice on wave climate trends along Alaska's central Beaufort Sea coast
Arctic sea ice anomalies during the MOSAiC winter 2019/20
Edge displacement scores
Toward a method for downscaling sea ice pressure for navigation purposes
The Arctic Ocean Observation Operator for 6.9 GHz (ARC3O) – Part 1: How to obtain sea ice brightness temperatures at 6.9 GHz from climate model output
The Arctic Ocean Observation Operator for 6.9 GHz (ARC3O) – Part 2: Development and evaluation
Feature-based comparison of sea ice deformation in lead-permitting sea ice simulations
Wave energy attenuation in fields of colliding ice floes – Part 1: Discrete-element modelling of dissipation due to ice–water drag
Validation of the sea ice surface albedo scheme of the regional climate model HIRHAM–NAOSIM using aircraft measurements during the ACLOUD/PASCAL campaigns
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New insight from CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness for sea ice modelling
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The Cryosphere, 18, 1685–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, 2024
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We use a sea ice model to reproduce ice growth observations from two buoys deployed on coastal sea ice and analyze the improvements brought by new physics that represent the presence of saline liquid water in the ice interior. We find that the new physics with default parameters degrade the model performance, with overly rapid ice growth and overly early snow flooding on top of the ice. The performance is largely improved by simple modifications to the ice growth and snow-flooding algorithms.
Yurii Batrak, Bin Cheng, and Viivi Kallio-Myers
The Cryosphere, 18, 1157–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric reanalyses provide consistent series of atmospheric and surface parameters in a convenient gridded form. In this paper, we study the quality of sea ice in a recently released regional reanalysis and assess its added value compared to a global reanalysis. We show that the regional reanalysis, having a more complex sea ice model, gives an improved representation of sea ice, although there are limitations indicating potential benefits in using more advanced approaches in the future.
Oreste Marquis, Bruno Tremblay, Jean-François Lemieux, and Mohammed Islam
The Cryosphere, 18, 1013–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, 2024
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Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, and Einar Òlason
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This paper focuses on predicting the Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power from 12 hours up to eight months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modelling with deep learning proves to be effective in capturing the complex behavior of sea-ice.
Max Thomas, Briana Cate, Jack Garnett, Inga J. Smith, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Crispin Halsall
The Cryosphere, 17, 3193–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, 2023
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A recent study showed that pollutants can be enriched in growing sea ice beyond what we would expect from a perfectly dissolved chemical. We hypothesise that this effect is caused by the specific properties of the pollutants working in combination with fluid moving through the sea ice. To test our hypothesis, we replicate this behaviour in a sea-ice model and show that this type of modelling can be applied to predicting the transport of chemicals with complex behaviour in sea ice.
Tobias Sebastian Finn, Charlotte Durand, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Yumeng Chen, Alberto Carrassi, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 17, 2965–2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2965-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2965-2023, 2023
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We combine deep learning with a regional sea-ice model to correct model errors in the sea-ice dynamics of low-resolution forecasts towards high-resolution simulations. The combined model improves the forecast by up to 75 % and thereby surpasses the performance of persistence. As the error connection can additionally be used to analyse the shortcomings of the forecasts, this study highlights the potential of combined modelling for short-term sea-ice forecasting.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
The Cryosphere, 17, 1935–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1935-2023, 2023
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This study provides clues on how improved atmospheric reanalysis products influence sea ice simulations in ocean–sea ice models. The summer ice concentration simulation in both hemispheres can be improved with changed surface heat fluxes. The winter Antarctic ice concentration and the Arctic drift speed near the ice edge and the ice velocity direction simulations are improved with changed wind stress. The radiation fluxes and winds in atmospheric reanalyses are crucial for sea ice simulations.
Guillaume Boutin, Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, Heather Regan, Camille Lique, Claude Talandier, Laurent Brodeau, and Robert Ricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, 2023
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Sea ice cover in the Arctic is full of cracks, which we call leads. We suspect that these leads play a role for atmosphere–ocean interactions in polar regions, but their importance remains challenging to estimate. We use a new ocean–sea ice model with an original way of representing sea ice dynamics to estimate their impact on winter sea ice production. This model successfully represents sea ice evolution from 2000 to 2018, and we find that about 30 % of ice production takes place in leads.
Nicolas Guillaume Alexandre Mokus and Fabien Montiel
The Cryosphere, 16, 4447–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4447-2022, 2022
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On the fringes of polar oceans, sea ice is easily broken by waves. As small pieces of ice, or floes, are more easily melted by the warming waters than a continuous ice cover, it is important to incorporate these floe sizes in climate models. These models simulate climate evolution at the century scale and are built by combining specialised modules. We study the statistical distribution of floe sizes under the impact of waves to better understand how to connect sea ice modules to wave modules.
Mauricio Arboleda-Zapata, Michael Angelopoulos, Pier Paul Overduin, Guido Grosse, Benjamin M. Jones, and Jens Tronicke
The Cryosphere, 16, 4423–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4423-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4423-2022, 2022
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We demonstrate how we can reliably estimate the thawed–frozen permafrost interface with its associated uncertainties in subsea permafrost environments using 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. In addition, we show how further analyses considering 1D inversion and sensitivity assessments can help quantify and better understand 2D ERT inversion results. Our results illustrate the capabilities of the ERT method to get insights into the development of the subsea permafrost.
Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 16, 2565–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, 2022
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Numerical models are used to understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover. The sea ice cover is formed of pieces of ice called floes. Several recent studies have proposed variable floe size models to replace the standard model assumption of a fixed floe size. In this study we show the need to include floe fragmentation processes in these variable floe size models and demonstrate that model design can determine the impact of floe size on size ice evolution.
Frédéric Dupont, Dany Dumont, Jean-François Lemieux, Elie Dumas-Lefebvre, and Alain Caya
The Cryosphere, 16, 1963–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1963-2022, 2022
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In some shallow seas, grounded ice ridges contribute to stabilizing and maintaining a landfast ice cover. A scheme has already proposed where the keel thickness varies linearly with the mean thickness. Here, we extend the approach by taking into account the ice thickness and bathymetry distributions. The probabilistic approach shows a reasonably good agreement with observations and previous grounding scheme while potentially offering more physical insights into the formation of landfast ice.
Kees Nederhoff, Li Erikson, Anita Engelstad, Peter Bieniek, and Jeremy Kasper
The Cryosphere, 16, 1609–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1609-2022, 2022
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Diminishing sea ice is impacting waves across the Arctic region. Recent work shows the effect of the sea ice on offshore waves; however, effects within the nearshore are less known. This study characterizes the wave climate in the central Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska. We show that the reduction of sea ice correlates strongly with increases in the average and extreme waves. However, found trends deviate from offshore, since part of the increase in energy is dissipated before reaching the shore.
Klaus Dethloff, Wieslaw Maslowski, Stefan Hendricks, Younjoo J. Lee, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Krumpen, Christian Haas, Dörthe Handorf, Robert Ricker, Vladimir Bessonov, John J. Cassano, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Robert Osinski, Markus Rex, Annette Rinke, Julia Sokolova, and Anja Sommerfeld
The Cryosphere, 16, 981–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, 2022
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Sea ice thickness anomalies during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) winter in January, February and March 2020 were simulated with the coupled Regional Arctic climate System Model (RASM) and compared with CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite data. Hindcast and ensemble simulations indicate that the sea ice anomalies are driven by nonlinear interactions between ice growth processes and wind-driven sea-ice transports, with dynamics playing a dominant role.
Arne Melsom
The Cryosphere, 15, 3785–3796, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3785-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3785-2021, 2021
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This study presents new methods to assess how well observations of sea ice expansion are reproduced by results from models. The aim is to provide information about the quality of forecasts for changes in the sea ice extent to operators in or near ice-infested waters. A test using 2 years of model results demonstrates the practical applicability and usefulness of the methods that are presented.
Jean-François Lemieux, L. Bruno Tremblay, and Mathieu Plante
The Cryosphere, 14, 3465–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3465-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3465-2020, 2020
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Sea ice pressure poses great risk for navigation; it can lead to ship besetting and damages. Sea ice forecasting systems can predict the evolution of pressure. However, these systems have low spatial resolution (a few km) compared to the dimensions of ships. We study the downscaling of pressure from the km-scale to scales relevant for navigation. We find that the pressure applied on a ship beset in heavy ice conditions can be markedly larger than the pressure predicted by the forecasting system.
Clara Burgard, Dirk Notz, Leif T. Pedersen, and Rasmus T. Tonboe
The Cryosphere, 14, 2369–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2369-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2369-2020, 2020
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The high disagreement between observations of Arctic sea ice makes it difficult to evaluate climate models with observations. We investigate the possibility of translating the model state into what a satellite could observe. We find that we do not need complex information about the vertical distribution of temperature and salinity inside the ice but instead are able to assume simplified distributions to reasonably translate the simulated sea ice into satellite
language.
Clara Burgard, Dirk Notz, Leif T. Pedersen, and Rasmus T. Tonboe
The Cryosphere, 14, 2387–2407, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2387-2020, 2020
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The high disagreement between observations of Arctic sea ice inhibits the evaluation of climate models with observations. We develop a tool that translates the simulated Arctic Ocean state into what a satellite could observe from space in the form of brightness temperatures, a measure for the radiation emitted by the surface. We find that the simulated brightness temperatures compare well with the observed brightness temperatures. This tool brings a new perspective for climate model evaluation.
Nils Hutter and Martin Losch
The Cryosphere, 14, 93–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-93-2020, 2020
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Sea ice is composed of a multitude of floes that constantly deform due to wind and ocean currents and thereby form leads and pressure ridges. These features are visible in the ice as stripes of open-ocean or high-piled ice. High-resolution sea ice models start to resolve these deformation features. In this paper we present two simulations that agree with satellite data according to a new evaluation metric that detects deformation features and compares their spatial and temporal characteristics.
Agnieszka Herman, Sukun Cheng, and Hayley H. Shen
The Cryosphere, 13, 2887–2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2887-2019, 2019
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Sea ice interactions with waves are extensively studied in recent years, but mechanisms leading to wave energy attenuation in sea ice remain poorly understood. Close to the ice edge, processes contributing to dissipation include collisions between ice floes and turbulence generated under the ice due to velocity differences between ice and water. This paper analyses details of those processes both theoretically and by means of a numerical model.
Evelyn Jäkel, Johannes Stapf, Manfred Wendisch, Marcel Nicolaus, Wolfgang Dorn, and Annette Rinke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1695–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1695-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1695-2019, 2019
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The sea ice surface albedo parameterization of a coupled regional climate model was validated against aircraft measurements performed in May–June 2017 north of Svalbard. The albedo parameterization was run offline from the model using the measured parameters surface temperature and snow depth to calculate the surface albedo and the individual fractions of the ice surface subtypes. An adjustment of the variables and additionally accounting for cloud cover reduced the root-mean-squared error.
Damien Ringeisen, Martin Losch, L. Bruno Tremblay, and Nils Hutter
The Cryosphere, 13, 1167–1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1167-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1167-2019, 2019
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We study the creation of fracture in sea ice plastic models. To do this, we compress an ideal piece of ice of 8 km by 25 km. We use two different mathematical expressions defining the resistance of ice. We find that the most common one is unable to model the fracture correctly, while the other gives better results but brings instabilities. The results are often in opposition with ice granular nature (e.g., sand) and call for changes in ice modeling.
Charles Gignac, Monique Bernier, and Karem Chokmani
The Cryosphere, 13, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-451-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-451-2019, 2019
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The IcePAC tool is made to estimate the probabilities of specific sea ice conditions based on historical sea ice concentration time series from the EUMETSAT OSI-409 product (12.5 km grid), modelled using the beta distribution and used to build event probability maps, which have been unavailable until now. Compared to the Canadian ice service atlas, IcePAC showed promising results in the Hudson Bay, paving the way for its usage in other regions of the cryosphere to inform stakeholders' decisions.
David Schröder, Danny L. Feltham, Michel Tsamados, Andy Ridout, and Rachel Tilling
The Cryosphere, 13, 125–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-125-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-125-2019, 2019
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This paper uses sea ice thickness data (CryoSat-2) to identify and correct shortcomings in simulating winter ice growth in the widely used sea ice model CICE. Adding a model of snow drift and using a different scheme for calculating the ice conductivity improve model results. Sensitivity studies demonstrate that atmospheric winter conditions have little impact on winter ice growth, and the fate of Arctic summer sea ice is largely controlled by atmospheric conditions during the melting season.
Ann Keen and Ed Blockley
The Cryosphere, 12, 2855–2868, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2855-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2855-2018, 2018
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As the climate warms during the 21st century, our model shows extra melting at the top and the base of the Arctic sea ice. The reducing ice cover affects the impact these processes have on the sea ice volume budget, where the largest individual change is a reduction in the amount of growth at the base of existing ice. Using different forcing scenarios we show that, for this model, changes in the volume budget depend on the evolving ice area but not on the speed at which the ice area declines.
Takuya Nakanowatari, Jun Inoue, Kazutoshi Sato, Laurent Bertino, Jiping Xie, Mio Matsueda, Akio Yamagami, Takeshi Sugimura, Hironori Yabuki, and Natsuhiko Otsuka
The Cryosphere, 12, 2005–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018, 2018
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Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness in the East Siberian Sea was examined, based on TOPAZ4 forecast data. Statistical examination indicates that the estimate drops abruptly at 4 days, which is related to dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations such as an Arctic cyclone. For longer lead times (> 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which represents most of the remaining prediction.
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Short summary
We present a new atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model to study the influences of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation. Our results show (1) smaller ice-floe size with wave breaking increases ice melt, (2) the responses in the atmosphere and ocean to smaller floe size partially reduce the effect of the enhanced ice melt, (3) the limited oceanic energy is a strong constraint for ice melt enhancement, and (4) ocean waves can indirectly affect sea ice through the atmosphere and the ocean.
We present a new atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model to study the influences of ocean...
