Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Oct 2022
Research article |
| 13 Oct 2022
| 13 Oct 2022
Observed mechanism for sustained glacier retreat and acceleration in response to ocean warming around Greenland
Evan Carnahan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Geophysics, The University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA
Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA
Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA
Ginny Catania
Institute for Geophysics, The University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA
Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA
Timothy C. Bartholomaus
Department of Geological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
Related authors
Evan Carnahan, Jason M. Amundson, and Eran Hood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1667–1681, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1667-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1667-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We model the effects of glacier dynamics, climate, and plant succession on annual streamflow during glacier retreat. Streamflow initially increases as the glacier melts, but eventually decreases to below preretreat levels due to increases in evapotranspiration. Glacier dynamics largely controls early variations in streamflow, whereas plant succession plays a progressively larger roll throughout. We show that glacier dynamics and landscape evolution are equally important in predicting streamflow.
Nicole Abib, David A. Sutherland, Rachel Peterson, Ginny Catania, Jonathan D. Nash, Emily L. Shroyer, Leigh A. Stearns, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-504, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The melting of ice mélange, or dense packs of icebergs and sea ice in glacial fjords, can influence the water column by releasing cold, fresh water deep under the ocean surface. However, direct observations of this process have remained elusive. We use measurements of ocean temperature, salinity, and velocity bookending an episodic ice mélange event to show that this meltwater input changes the density profile of a glacial fjord and has implications for understanding tidewater glacier change.
Enze Zhang, Ginny Catania, and Daniel T. Trugman
The Cryosphere, 17, 3485–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier termini are essential for studying why glaciers retreat, but they need to be mapped automatically due to the volume of satellite images. Existing automated mapping methods have been limited due to limited automation, lack of quality control, and inadequacy in highly diverse terminus environments. We design a fully automated, deep-learning-based method to produce termini with quality control. We produced 278 239 termini in Greenland and provided a way to deliver new termini regularly.
Chris Miele, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, and Ellyn M. Enderlin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2701–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical shear stress (the stress orientation usually associated with vertical gradients in horizontal velocities) is a key component of the stress balance of ice shelves. However, partly due to historical assumptions, vertical shear is often misspoken of today as
negligiblein ice shelf models. We address this miscommunication, providing conceptual guidance regarding this often misrepresented stress. Fundamentally, vertical shear is required to balance thickness gradients in ice shelves.
Sophie Goliber, Taryn Black, Ginny Catania, James M. Lea, Helene Olsen, Daniel Cheng, Suzanne Bevan, Anders Bjørk, Charlie Bunce, Stephen Brough, J. Rachel Carr, Tom Cowton, Alex Gardner, Dominik Fahrner, Emily Hill, Ian Joughin, Niels J. Korsgaard, Adrian Luckman, Twila Moon, Tavi Murray, Andrew Sole, Michael Wood, and Enze Zhang
The Cryosphere, 16, 3215–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Terminus traces have been used to understand how Greenland's glaciers have changed over time; however, manual digitization is time-intensive, and a lack of coordination leads to duplication of efforts. We have compiled a dataset of over 39 000 terminus traces for 278 glaciers for scientific and machine learning applications. We also provide an overview of an updated version of the Google Earth Engine Digitization Tool (GEEDiT), which has been developed specifically for the Greenland Ice Sheet.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, and Ginny Catania
The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
Andy Aschwanden, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Ellyn M. Enderlin and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 14, 4121–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4121-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4121-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of future changes in glacier flow require the realistic simulation of glacier terminus position change in numerical models. We use crevasse observations for 19 Greenland glaciers to explore whether the two commonly used crevasse depth models match observations. The models cannot reproduce spatial patterns, and we largely attribute discrepancies between modeled and observed depths to the models' inability to account for advection.
Evan Carnahan, Jason M. Amundson, and Eran Hood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1667–1681, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1667-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1667-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We model the effects of glacier dynamics, climate, and plant succession on annual streamflow during glacier retreat. Streamflow initially increases as the glacier melts, but eventually decreases to below preretreat levels due to increases in evapotranspiration. Glacier dynamics largely controls early variations in streamflow, whereas plant succession plays a progressively larger roll throughout. We show that glacier dynamics and landscape evolution are equally important in predicting streamflow.
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Greenland
Subglacial valleys preserved in the highlands of south and east Greenland record restricted ice extent during past warmer climates
Coupling MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) with PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model) mitigates the positive melt–elevation feedback
Cloud- and ice-albedo feedbacks drive greater Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to warming in CMIP6 than in CMIP5
Evaluating different geothermal heat-flow maps as basal boundary conditions during spin-up of the Greenland ice sheet
Seasonal evolution of the supraglacial drainage network at Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, between 2016 and 2020
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations
Mapping the vertical heterogeneity of Greenland’s firn from 2011–2019 using airborne radar and laser altimetry
Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Precursor of disintegration of Greenland's largest floating ice tongue
An evaluation of a physics-based firn model and a semi-empirical firn model across the Greenland Ice Sheet (1980–2020)
Subglacial lake activity beneath the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The control of short-term ice mélange weakening episodes on calving activity at major Greenland outlet glaciers
Weekly to monthly terminus variability of Greenland's marine-terminating outlet glaciers
The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat
Assessing bare-ice albedo simulated by MAR over the Greenland ice sheet (2000–2021) and implications for meltwater production estimates
Drill-site selection for cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating of the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet
A new Level 4 multi-sensor ice surface temperature product for the Greenland Ice Sheet
High-resolution imaging of supraglacial hydrological features on the Greenland Ice Sheet with NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) instrument suite
The impact of climate oscillations on the surface energy budget over the Greenland Ice Sheet in a changing climate
GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Unravelling the long-term, locally heterogenous response of Greenland glaciers observed in archival photography
Simulating the Holocene deglaciation across a marine-terminating portion of southwestern Greenland in response to marine and atmospheric forcings
Comparison of ice dynamics using full-Stokes and Blatter–Pattyn approximation: application to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model
Modelling the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties
Multi-decadal retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northwest and central-west Greenland
Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century
Proper orthogonal decomposition of ice velocity identifies drivers of flow variability at Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ)
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level
Automated detection and analysis of surface calving waves with a terrestrial radar interferometer at the front of Eqip Sermia, Greenland
Generation and fate of basal meltwater during winter, western Greenland Ice Sheet
Modeling the Greenland englacial stratigraphy
Upstream flow effects revealed in the EastGRIP ice core using Monte Carlo inversion of a two-dimensional ice-flow model
Indication of high basal melting at the EastGRIP drill site on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering
Contrasting regional variability of buried meltwater extent over 2 years across the Greenland Ice Sheet
Sensitivity of the Greenland surface mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters
Surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet derived from enhanced resolution passive microwave brightness temperatures (1979–2019)
Impact of updated radiative transfer scheme in snow and ice in RACMO2.3p3 on the surface mass and energy budget of the Greenland ice sheet
Winter drainage of surface lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet from Sentinel-1 SAR imagery
Basal traction mainly dictated by hard-bed physics over grounded regions of Greenland
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century
The cooling signature of basal crevasses in a hard-bedded region of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Last glacial ice sheet dynamics offshore NE Greenland – a case study from Store Koldewey Trough
Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet
GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet
The firn meltwater Retention Model Intercomparison Project (RetMIP): evaluation of nine firn models at four weather station sites on the Greenland ice sheet
Evaluation of a new snow albedo scheme for the Greenland ice sheet in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2)
Surface velocity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS): assessment of interior velocities derived from satellite data by GPS
Intercomparison of surface meltwater routing models for the Greenland ice sheet and influence on subglacial effective pressures
Guy J. G. Paxman, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Aisling M. Dolan, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1467–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses airborne radar data and satellite imagery to map mountainous topography hidden beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the landscape records the former extent and configuration of ice masses that were restricted to areas of high topography. Computer models of ice flow indicate that valley glaciers eroded this landscape millions of years ago when local air temperatures were at least 4 °C higher than today and Greenland’s ice volume was < 10 % of that of the modern ice sheet.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Lauren D. Rawlins, David M. Rippin, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Kang Yang
The Cryosphere, 17, 4729–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We map and quantify surface rivers and lakes at Humboldt Glacier to examine seasonal evolution and provide new insights of network configuration and behaviour. A widespread supraglacial drainage network exists, expanding up the glacier as seasonal runoff increases. Large interannual variability affects the areal extent of this network, controlled by high- vs. low-melt years, with late summer network persistence likely preconditioning the surface for earlier drainage activity the following year.
Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4661–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.
Anja Rutishauser, Kirk Michael Scanlan, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nanna B. Karlsson, Nicolas Jullien, Andreas Peter Ahlstrøm, Robert S. Fausto, and Penelope How
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2385, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice sheet interior is covered by a layer of firn, which is important for surface meltwater runoff and contributions to global sea-level rise. Here, we combine airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry measurements to delineate vertically homogeneous and heterogeneous firn. Our results reveal changes in firn between 2011–2019, aligning well with known climatic events. This approach can be used to outline firn areas primed for significantly changing future meltwater runoff.
Johanna Beckmann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events.
With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent.
Strong melt events may considerably contribute to Greenland's mass loss, which in turn strongly determines future sea level rise. How important these extreme melt events could be in the future is assessed in this study for the first time.
Angelika Humbert, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Ole Zeising, Martin Rückamp, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Erik Loebel, Jörg Brauchle, Karsten Stebner, Dietmar Gross, Rabea Sondershaus, and Ralf Müller
The Cryosphere, 17, 2851–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The largest floating glacier mass in Greenland, the 79° N Glacier, is showing signs of instability. We investigate how crack formation at the glacier's calving front has changed over the last decades by using satellite imagery and airborne data. The calving front is about to lose contact to stabilizing ice islands. Simulations show that the glacier will accelerate as a result of this, leading to an increase in ice discharge of more than 5.1 % if its calving front retreats by 46 %.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Yubin Fan, Chang-Qing Ke, Xiaoyi Shen, Yao Xiao, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Andrew J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 17, 1775–1786, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1775-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1775-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used the new-generation ICESat-2 altimeter to detect and monitor active subglacial lakes in unprecedented spatiotemporal detail. We created a new inventory of 18 active subglacial lakes as well as their elevation and volume changes during 2019–2020, which provides an improved understanding of how the Greenland subglacial water system operates and how these lakes are fed by water from the ice surface.
Adrien Wehrlé, Martin P. Lüthi, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 17, 309–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterized short-lived episodes of ice mélange weakening (IMW) at the front of three major Greenland outlet glaciers. Through a continuous detection at the front of Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier during the June-to-September period from 2018 to 2021, we found that 87 % of the IMW episodes occurred prior to a large-scale calving event. Using a simple model for ice mélange motion, we further characterized the IMW process as self-sustained through the existence of an IMW–calving feedback.
Taryn E. Black and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 17, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The frontal positions of most ice-sheet-based glaciers in Greenland vary seasonally. On average, these glaciers begin retreating in May and begin advancing in October, and the difference between their most advanced and most retreated positions is 220 m. The timing may be related to the timing of melt on the ice sheet, and the seasonal length variation may be related to glacier speed. These seasonal variations can affect glacier behavior and, consequently, how much ice is lost from the ice sheet.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, and Ian M. Howat
The Cryosphere, 16, 4679–4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea level in 2007–2100, using an ensemble of model simulations constrained by observations of glacier retreat and speedup. This is a significant fraction of the 40–140 mm from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet predicted by the recent ISMIP6 multi-model ensemble, suggesting that calibrating models against observed velocity changes could result in higher estimates of 21st century sea-level rise from Greenland.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
Ioanna Karagali, Magnus Barfod Suhr, Ruth Mottram, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Gorm Dybkjær, Darren Ghent, and Jacob L. Høyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ice surface temperature (IST) products were used to develop the first multi-sensor, gap-free Level 4 (L4) IST product of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) for 2012, when a significant melt event occurred. For the melt season, mean IST was −15 to −1 °C, and almost the entire GIS experienced at least 1 to 5 melt days. Inclusion of the L4 IST to a surface mass budget (SMB) model improved simulated surface temperatures during the key onset of the melt season, where biases are typically large.
Michael Studinger, Serdar S. Manizade, Matthew A. Linkswiler, and James K. Yungel
The Cryosphere, 16, 3649–3668, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3649-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The footprint density and high-resolution imagery of airborne surveys reveal details in supraglacial hydrological features that are currently not obtainable from spaceborne data. The accuracy and resolution of airborne measurements complement spaceborne measurements, can support calibration and validation of spaceborne methods, and provide information necessary for process studies of the hydrological system on ice sheets that currently cannot be achieved from spaceborne observations alone.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Michael A. Cooper, Paulina Lewińska, William A. P. Smith, Edwin R. Hancock, Julian A. Dowdeswell, and David M. Rippin
The Cryosphere, 16, 2449–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use old photographs gathered several decades ago to expand the temporal record of glacier change in part of East Greenland. This is important because the longer the record of past glacier change, the better we are at predicting future glacier behaviour. Our work also shows that despite all these glaciers retreating, the rate at which they do this varies markedly. It is therefore important to consider outlet glaciers from Greenland individually to take account of this differing behaviour.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Martin Rückamp, Thomas Kleiner, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a comparative modelling study between the full-Stokes (FS) and Blatter–Pattyn (BP) approximation applied to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Both stress regimes are implemented in one single ice sheet code to eliminate numerical issues. The simulations unveil minor differences in the upper ice stream but become considerable at the grounding line of the 79° North Glacier. Model differences are stronger for a power-law friction than a linear friction law.
Daniel Clarkson, Emma Eastoe, and Amber Leeson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1597–1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland ice sheet has seen large amounts of melt in recent years, and accurately modelling temperatures is vital to understand how much of the ice sheet is melting. We estimate the probability of melt from ice surface temperature data to identify which areas of the ice sheet have experienced melt and estimate temperature quantiles. Our results suggest that for large areas of the ice sheet, melt has become more likely over the past 2 decades and high temperatures are also becoming warmer.
Benjamin Joseph Davison, Tom Cowton, Andrew Sole, Finlo Cottier, and Pete Nienow
The Cryosphere, 16, 1181–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is an important driver of Greenland glacier retreat. Icebergs influence ocean temperature in the vicinity of glaciers, which will affect glacier retreat rates, but the effect of icebergs on water temperature is poorly understood. In this study, we use a model to show that icebergs cause large changes to water properties next to Greenland's glaciers, which could influence ocean-driven glacier retreat around Greenland.
Taryn E. Black and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 16, 807–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite images to create a comprehensive record of annual glacier change in northwest Greenland from 1972 through 2021. We found that nearly all glaciers in our study area have retreated and glacier retreat accelerated from around 1996. Comparing these results with climate data, we found that glacier retreat is most sensitive to water runoff and moderately sensitive to ocean temperatures. These can affect glacier fronts in several ways, so no process clearly dominates glacier retreat.
Katharina M. Holube, Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 16, 315–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century by forcing a snow model with the output of many Earth system models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We quantify the contribution to uncertainty in surface mass balance of these two factors and the choice of parameters of the snow model. The results show that the differences between Earth system models are the main source of uncertainty. This effect is localised mostly near the equilibrium line.
David W. Ashmore, Douglas W. F. Mair, Jonathan E. Higham, Stephen Brough, James M. Lea, and Isabel J. Nias
The Cryosphere, 16, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the use of a transferrable and flexible statistical technique to try and untangle the multiple influences on marine-terminating glacier dynamics, as measured from space. We decompose a satellite-derived ice velocity record into ranked sets of static maps and temporal coefficients. We present evidence that the approach can identify velocity variability mainly driven by changes in terminus position and velocity variation mainly driven by subglacial hydrological processes.
Andy Aschwanden, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Adrien Wehrlé, Martin P. Lüthi, Andrea Walter, Guillaume Jouvet, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 5659–5674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5659-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a novel automated method for the detection and the quantification of ocean waves generated by glacier calving. This method was applied to data recorded with a terrestrial radar interferometer at Eqip Sermia, Greenland. Results show a high calving activity at the glacier front sector ending in deep water linked with more frequent meltwater plumes. This suggests that rising subglacial meltwater plumes strongly affect glacier calving in deep water, but weakly in shallow water.
Joel Harper, Toby Meierbachtol, Neil Humphrey, Jun Saito, and Aidan Stansberry
The Cryosphere, 15, 5409–5421, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5409-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use surface and borehole measurements to investigate the generation and fate of basal meltwater in the ablation zone of western Greenland. The rate of basal meltwater generation at borehole study sites increases by up to 20 % over the winter period. Accommodation of all basal meltwater by expansion of isolated subglacial cavities is implausible. Other sinks for water do not likely balance basal meltwater generation, implying water evacuation through a connected drainage system in winter.
Andreas Born and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice penetrating radar reflections from the Greenland ice sheet are the best available record of past accumulation and how these layers have been deformed over time by the flow of ice. Direct simulations of this archive hold great promise for improving our models and for uncovering details of ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. We present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates individual layers of accumulation and how they deform.
Tamara Annina Gerber, Christine Schøtt Hvidberg, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Steven Franke, Giulia Sinnl, Aslak Grinsted, Daniela Jansen, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
The Cryosphere, 15, 3655–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the ice flow in the onset region of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to determine the source area and past accumulation rates of ice found in the EastGRIP ice core. This information is required to correct for bias in ice-core records introduced by the upstream flow effects. Our results reveal that the increasing accumulation rate with increasing upstream distance is predominantly responsible for the constant annual layer thicknesses observed in the upper 900 m of the ice core.
Ole Zeising and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 3119–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland’s largest ice stream – the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) – extends far into the interior of the ice sheet. Basal meltwater acts as a lubricant for glaciers and sustains sliding. Hence, observations of basal melt rates are of high interest. We performed two time series of precise ground-based radar measurements in the upstream region of NEGIS and found high melt rates of 0.19 ± 0.04 m per year.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Roland Séférian, Charles Amory, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Joris Van Bever, Florent Veillon, and Peter Irvine
The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Devon Dunmire, Alison F. Banwell, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Rajashree Tri Datta
The Cryosphere, 15, 2983–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we automatically detect buried lakes (meltwater lakes buried below layers of snow) across the Greenland Ice Sheet, providing insight into a poorly studied meltwater feature. For 2018 and 2019, we compare areal extent of buried lakes. We find greater buried lake extent in 2019, especially in northern Greenland, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that buried lakes form via different processes across Greenland.
Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 15, 2917–2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of a glacier surface mass and the energy balance model of the Greenland ice sheet for the cold period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day climate. The results show that the model sensitivity changes with climate. While for present-day simulations inclusions of sublimation and hoar formation are of minor importance, they cannot be neglected during the LGM. To simulate the surface mass balance over long timescales, a water vapor scheme is necessary.
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 1823–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorption of solar radiation is often limited to the surface in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new radiative transfer scheme in the model RACMO2, which allows for internal heating and improves the surface reflectivity. Here, we evaluate its impact on the surface mass and energy budget and (sub)surface temperature, by using observations and the previous model version for the Greenland ice sheet. New results match better with observations and introduce subsurface melt.
Corinne L. Benedek and Ian C. Willis
The Cryosphere, 15, 1587–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1587-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet contains thousands of surface lakes. These lakes can deliver water through cracks to the ice sheet base and influence the speed of ice flow. Here we look at instances of lakes draining in the middle of winter using the Sentinel-1 radar satellites. Winter-draining lakes can help us understand the mechanisms for lake drainages throughout the year and can point to winter movement of water that will impact our understanding of ice sheet hydrology.
Nathan Maier, Florent Gimbert, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Adrien Gilbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 1435–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1435-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1435-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In Greenland, ice motion and the surface geometry depend on the friction at the bed. We use satellite measurements and modeling to determine how ice speeds and friction are related across the ice sheet. The relationships indicate that ice flowing over bed bumps sets the friction across most of the ice sheet's on-land regions. This result helps simplify and improve our understanding of how ice motion will change in the future.
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
The Cryosphere, 15, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Greenland. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. Mass loss is primarily driven by atmospheric warming, while oceanic forcing contributes to a relatively smaller uncertainty in our simulations.
Ian E. McDowell, Neil F. Humphrey, Joel T. Harper, and Toby W. Meierbachtol
The Cryosphere, 15, 897–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-897-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice temperature controls rates of internal deformation and the onset of basal sliding. To identify heat transfer mechanisms and englacial heat sources within Greenland's ablation zone, we examine a 2–3-year continuous temperature record from nine full-depth boreholes. Thermal decay after basal crevasses release heat in the near-basal ice likely produces the observed cooling. Basal crevasses in Greenland can affect the basal ice rheology and indicate a potentially complex basal hydrologic system.
Ingrid Leirvik Olsen, Tom Arne Rydningen, Matthias Forwick, Jan Sverre Laberg, and Katrine Husum
The Cryosphere, 14, 4475–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4475-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present marine geoscientific data from Store Koldewey Trough, one of the largest glacial troughs offshore NE Greenland, to reconstruct the ice drainage pathways, ice sheet extent and ice stream dynamics of this sector during the last glacial and deglaciation. The complex landform assemblage in the trough reflects a dynamic retreat with several periods of stabilization and readvances, interrupting the deglaciation. Estimates indicate that the ice front locally retreated between 80–400 m/year.
Jonathan M. Gregory, Steven E. George, and Robin S. Smith
The Cryosphere, 14, 4299–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a consequence of global warming could raise global-mean sea level by up to 7 m. We have studied this using a newly developed computer model. With recent climate maintained, sea level would rise by 0.5–2.5 m over many millennia due to Greenland ice loss: the warmer the climate, the greater the sea level rise. Beyond about 3.5 m it would become partially irreversible. In order to avoid this outcome, anthropogenic climate change must be reversed soon enough.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Ruth Mottram, Peter L. Langen, Robert S. Fausto, Martin Olesen, C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Amber Leeson, Stefan Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Sergey Marchenko, Ward van Pelt, Colin R. Meyer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Achim Heilig, Samira Samimi, Shawn Marshall, Horst Machguth, Michael MacFerrin, Masashi Niwano, Olivia Miller, Clifford I. Voss, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 14, 3785–3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the vast interior of the Greenland ice sheet, snow accumulates into a thick and porous layer called firn. Each summer, the firn retains part of the meltwater generated at the surface and buffers sea-level rise. In this study, we compare nine firn models traditionally used to quantify this retention at four sites and evaluate their performance against a set of in situ observations. We highlight limitations of certain model designs and give perspectives for future model development.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Stef Lhermitte, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3645–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The reflectivity of sunlight, which is also known as albedo, is often inadequately modeled in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new snow and ice albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2. In this study, we evaluate a new RACMO2 version for the Greenland ice sheet by using observations and the previous model version. RACMO2 output compares well with observations, and by including new processes we improve the ability of RACMO2 to make future climate projections.
Christine S. Hvidberg, Aslak Grinsted, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Anders Kusk, Jonas Kvist Andersen, Niklas Neckel, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Helle Astrid Kjær, and Paul Vallelonga
The Cryosphere, 14, 3487–3502, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km from its onset in the interior of Greenland to the coast. Several maps of surface velocity and topography in Greenland exist, but accuracy is limited due to the lack of validation data. Here we present results from a 5-year GPS survey in an interior section of NEGIS. We use the data to assess a list of satellite-derived ice velocity and surface elevation products and discuss the implications for the ice stream flow in the area.
Kang Yang, Aleah Sommers, Lauren C. Andrews, Laurence C. Smith, Xin Lu, Xavier Fettweis, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 14, 3349–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models. Results show that these models are superior to simply using regional climate model runoff without routing, but different routing models, different-spatial-resolution DEMs, and parameterized seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks induce significant variability in diurnal moulin discharges and corresponding subglacial effective pressures.
Cited articles
Amundson, J. M., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brown, J., Brown, J., Lüthi,
M. P., and Motyka, R. J.: Ice mélange dynamics and implications for
terminus stability, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, J. Geophys.
Res., 115, F01005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jf001405, 2010. a, b
Andrews, J. T., Milliman, J. D., Jennings, A. E., Rynes, N., and Dwyer, J.:
Sediment Thicknesses and Holocene Glacial Marine Sedimentation Rates in
Three East Greenland Fjords (ca. 68° N)1, J. Geol., 102, 669–683, 1994. a
Bartholomaus, T. C., Stearns, L. A., Sutherland, D. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash,
J. D., Walker, R. T., Catania, G. A., Felikson, D., Carroll, D., Fried,
M. J., Noël, B. P. Y., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Contrasts in the response
of adjacent fjords and glaciers to ice-sheet surface melt in West Greenland,
Ann. Glaciol., 57, 25–38, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2016.19, 2016. a, b, c, d
Bondzio, J. H., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M.,
Mouginot, J., Moon, T., Larour, E. Y., and Humbert, A.: The mechanisms
behind Jakobshavn Isbrae's acceleration and mass loss: A 3-D thermomechanical
model study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6252–6260,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl073309, 2017. a, b, c, d, e
Catania, G. A., Stearns, L. A., Sutherland, D. A., Fried, M. J., Bartholomaus,
T. C., Morlighem, M., Shroyer, E. L., and Nash, J. D.: Geometric Controls on
Tidewater Glacier Retreat in Central Western Greenland, J.
Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 2024–2038,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jf004499, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Csatho, B. M., Schenk, A. F., van der Veen, C. J., Babonis, G. S., Duncan, K.,
Rezvanbehbahani, S., van den Broeke, M. R., Simonsen, S. B., Nagarajan, S., and
Angelen, J. H. V.: Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice
Sheet dynamics, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111,
18478–18483, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411680112, 2014. a
ecFlo: ecFlo/greenlandForceBalance: grlInitialSubmission (Version v1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5722398, 2021. a
Enderlin, E. M., Hamilton, G. S., Straneo, F., and Sutherland, D. A.: Iceberg
meltwater fluxes dominate the freshwater budget in
Greenland's iceberg‐congested glacial fjords,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11287–11294,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070718, 2016. a, b, c, d
Enderlin, E. M., O'Neel, S., Bartholomaus, T. C., and Joughin, I. R.: Evolving
Environmental and Geometric Controls on Columbia Glacier's Continued
Retreat, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 28, 2034–2018,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jf004541, 2018. a, b
Felikson, D., Bartholomaus, T. C., Catania, G. A., Korsgaard, N. J., Kjær,
K. H., Morlighem, M., Noël, B. P. Y., van den Broeke, M. R., Stearns, L. A.,
Shroyer, E. L., Sutherland, D. A., and Nash, J. D.: Inland thinning on the
Greenland ice sheet controlled by outlet glacier geometry, Nat.
Geosci., 10, 366–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2934, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Felikson, D., Catania, G., Bartholomaus, T. C., Morlighem, M., and Noël, B.
P. Y.: Steep Glacier Bed Knickpoints Mitigate Inland Thinning in Greenland,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090112,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090112, 2021. a, b
Fujisada, H., Bailey, G. B., Kelly, G. G., Hara, S., and Abrams, M. J.: ASTER
DEM Performance, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 43,
2707–2714, https://doi.org/10.1109/tgrs.2005.847924, 2005. a
Gardner, A., Fahnestock, M. A., and Scambos, T. A.: ITS_LIVE Regional Glacier
and Ice Sheet Surface Velocities, National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/6II6VW8LLWJ7, 2021. a, b, c
Girod, L., Nuth, C., Kääb, A., McNabb, R., and Galland, O.: MMASTER:
Improved ASTER DEMs for Elevation Change Monitoring, Remote Sensing, 9, 704, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9070704, 2017. a, b
Goldberg, D. N., Heimbach, P., Joughin, I., and Smith, B.: Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration, The Cryosphere, 9, 2429–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015, 2015. a
Goliber, S., Black, T., Catania, G., Lea, J. M., Olsen, H., Cheng, D., Bevan, S., Bjørk, A., Bunce, C., Brough, S., Carr, J. R., Cowton, T., Gardner, A., Fahrner, D., Hill, E., Joughin, I., Korsgaard, N. J., Luckman, A., Moon, T., Murray, T., Sole, A., Wood, M., and Zhang, E.: TermPicks: a century of Greenland glacier terminus data for use in scientific and machine learning applications, The Cryosphere, 16, 3215–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, 2022. a
Holland, D. M., Thomas, R. H., Young, B. D., Ribergaard, M. H., and Lyberth,
B.: Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbræ triggered by warm subsurface ocean
waters, Nat. Geosci., 1, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo316, 2008. a
Howat, I. M., Negrete, A., and Smith, B. E.: The Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) land classification and surface elevation data sets, The Cryosphere, 8, 1509–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1509-2014, 2014. a, b
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Tech. rep., Cambridge University Press, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/, last access: 1 November 2021. a
Joughin, I. R., Das, S. B., King, M. A., Smith, B. E., Howat, I. M., and Moon,
T.: Seasonal speedup along the western flank of the Greenland Ice Sheet,
Science, 320, 781–783, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1153288, 2008. a
Joughin, I. R., Smith, B. E., Howat, I. M., Floricioiu, D., Alley, R. B.,
Truffer, M., and Fahnestock, M. A.: Seasonal to decadal scale variations in
the surface velocity of Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland: Observation and
model-based analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F02030,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jf002110, 2012. a, b, c
Joughin, I. R., Smith, B. E., and Schoof, C. G.: Regularized Coulomb Friction
Laws for Ice Sheet Sliding: Application to Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 310, 456–458, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082526,
2019. a, b
Kamb, W. B.: Sliding Motion of Glaciers: Theory and Observation., Rev.
Geophys. Space Phys., 8, 673–728, 1970. a
King, M. D., Howat, I. M., Jeong, S., Noh, M. J., Wouters, B., Noël, B., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Seasonal to decadal variability in ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 12, 3813–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, 2018. a
King, M. D., Howat, I. M., Candela, S. G., Noh, M.-J., Jeong, S., Noël, B.
P. Y., van den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B., and Negrete, A.: Dynamic ice loss
from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat, Nature
Communications Earth and Environment, 1, 1,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0001-2, 2020. a, b
Korsgaard, N. J., Nuth, C., Khan, S. A., Kjellerup, K. K., Bjørk, A. A.,
Schomacker, A., and Kjær, K. H.: Digital elevation model and
orthophotographs of Greenland based on aerial photographs from 1978–1987,
Nature Scientific Data, 3, 160032–160015, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.32,
2016. a
Lliboutry, L. A.: Local frictions laws for glaciers: a critical review and new
openings, J. Glaciol., 23, 67–95, 1979. a
MacAyeal, D. R.: Large-scale ice flow over a viscous basal sediment: Theory
and Application to Ice Stream B, Antarctica, J. Geophys.
Res., 94, 4071–4078, 1989. a
MacAyeal, D. R.: The basal stress distribution of Ice Stream E, Antarctica,
inferred by control methods, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea.,
97, 595–603, https://doi.org/10.1029/91jb02454, 1992. a, b
Mankoff, K. D., Solgaard, A., Colgan, W., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Khan, S. A., and Fausto, R. S.: Greenland Ice Sheet solid ice discharge from 1986 through March 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1367–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1367-2020, 2020. a
Meierbachtol, T., Harper, J., and Johnson, J.: Force Balance along Isunnguata
Sermia, West Greenland, Front. Earth Sci., 4, 87,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00087, 2016. a, b, c, d
Moon, T. A., Gardner, A. S., Csatho, B., Parmuzin, I., and Fahnestock, M. A.: Rapid Reconfiguration of the Greenland Ice Sheet Coastal Margin, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 125, e2020JF005585, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005585, 2020. a, b
Morlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E. J., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Bamber,
J. L., Catania, G. A., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty,
I. G., Hogan, K. A., Howat, I. M., Hubbard, A. L., Jakobsson, M., Jordan,
T. M., Kjellerup, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L. A., Mouginot, J., Noël, B.
P. Y., O'Cofaigh, C., Palmer, S. J., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert,
M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood,
M. H., and Zinglersen, K. B.: BedMachine v3: Complete Bed Topography and
Ocean Bathymetry Mapping of Greenland From Multibeam Echo Sounding Combined
With Mass Conservation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11051–11061,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl074954, 2017. a, b
Morlighem, M., Wood, M., Seroussi, H., Choi, Y., and Rignot, E.: Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge, The Cryosphere, 13, 723–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, 2019. a
Motyka, R. J., Truffer, M., Fahnestock, M. A., Mortensen, J., Rysgaard, S., and
Howat, I. M.: Submarine melting of the 1985 Jakobshavn Isbræ floating
tongue and the triggering of the current retreat, J. Geophys.
Res., 116, F01007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jf001632, 2011. a
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E. J., Bjørk, A. A., van den Broeke, M. R., Millan, R.,
Morlighem, M., Noël, B. P. Y., Scheuchl, B., and Wood, M. H.: Forty-six
years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 9239–9244, https://doi.org/10.7280/d1mm37,
2019. a, b
Murray, T., Scharrer, K., Selmes, N., Booth, A. D., James, T. D., Bevan, S. L.,
Bradley, J. A., Cook, S., Llana, L. C., Drocourt, Y., Dyke, L. M., Goldsack,
A., Hughes, A. L. C., Luckman, A. J., and McGovern, J.: Extensive Retreat of
Greenland Tidewater Glaciers, 2000–2010, Arct. Antarct. Alp.
Res., 47, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.1657/aaar0014-049, 2015. a, b
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., van Wessem, J. M., van Meijgaard, E., van As, D., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Kuipers Munneke, P., Smeets, C. J. P. P., van Ulft, L. H., van de Wal, R. S. W., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 1: Greenland (1958–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018. a
Nuth, C. and Kääb, A.: Co-registration and bias corrections of satellite elevation data sets for quantifying glacier thickness change, The Cryosphere, 5, 271–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-271-2011, 2011. a
Nye, J. F.: Glacier sliding without cavitation in a linear viscous
approximation, P. Roy. Soc. A, 315, 381–403, 1970. a
Price, S. F., Bindschadler, R. A., Hulbe, C. L., and Blankenship, D. D.: Force balance along an inland tributary and onset to Ice Stream D, West Antarctica, J. Glaciol., 48, 20–30, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756502781831539, 2002. a
Schoof, C. G.: The effect of cavitation on glacier sliding, P.
Roy. Soc. A, 461,
609–627, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2004.1350, 2005. a
Schoof, C. G.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability,
and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res., 112, 1720,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jf000664, 2007. a
Seddik, H., Greve, R., Sakakibara, D., Tsutaki, S., Minowa, M., and Sugiyama,
S.: Response of the flow dynamics of Bowdoin Glacier, northwestern
Greenland, to basal lubrication and tidal forcing, J. Glaciol.,
65, 225–238, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.106, 2018. a
Sergienko, O., Creyts, T. T., and Hindmarsh, R. C. A.: Similarity of organized
patterns in driving and basal stresses of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
beneath extensive areas of basal sliding, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3925–3932, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl059976, 2014. a
Shapero, D. R., Joughin, I. R., Poinar, K., Morlighem, M., and Gillet-Chaulet,
F.: Basal resistance for three of the largest Greenland outlet glaciers,
J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 168–180,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jf003643, 2016. a, b, c
Shean, D. E., Alexandrov, O., Moratto, Z. M., Smith, B. E., Joughin, I. R.,
Porter, C., and Morin, P.: An automated, open-source pipeline for mass
production of digital elevation models (DEMs) from very-high-resolution
commercial stereo satellite imagery, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 116, 101–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.03.012, 2016. a
Stearns, L. A., Jezek, K. C., and van der Veen, C.: Decadal-scale variations
in ice flow along Whillans Ice Stream and its tributaries, West Antarctica,
J. Glaciol., 51, 147–157, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756505781829610, 2005.
a
Straneo, F. and Heimbach, P.: North Atlantic warming and the retreat of
Greenland's outlet glaciers, Nature, 504, 36–43, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12854,
2013. a
Taylor, J.: An Introduction to Error Analysis: The Study of Uncertainties in
Physical Measurements, vol. 2, University Science Books, 1996. a
Thomas, R. H.: Force-perturbation analysis of recent thinning and acceleration
of Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, J. Glaciol., 50, 57–66,
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756504781830321, 2004. a
Thomas, R. H. and Bentley, C. R.: A model for Holocene retreat of the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Res., 10, 150–170,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4, 1978. a, b
Thomas, R. H., Abdalati, W., Friderick, E., Krabill, W. B., Manizade, S. S.,
and Steffen, K.: Investigation of surface melting and dynamic thinning on
Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland, J. Glaciol., 49, 231–239, 2003. a
van der Veen, C. J. and Whillans, I. M.: Force Budget: I. Theory and Numerical
Methods, J. Glaciol., 35, 68–80,
https://doi.org/10.3189/002214389793701581, 1989. a, b, c, d
Wood, M. H., Rignot, E. J., Fenty, I. G., An, L., Bjørk, A., van den Broeke, M. R., Cai, C., Kane, E., Menemenlis, D., Millan, R., Morlighem, M.,
Mouginot, J., Noël, B. P. Y., Scheuchl, B., Velicogna, I., Willis, J. K.,
and Zhang, H.: Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland, Sci.
Adv., 7, eaba7282, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba7282, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet primarily loses mass through increased ice discharge. We find changes in discharge from outlet glaciers are initiated by ocean warming, which causes a change in the balance of forces resisting gravity and leads to acceleration. Vulnerable conditions for sustained retreat and acceleration are predetermined by the glacier-fjord geometry and exist around Greenland, suggesting increases in ice discharge may be sustained into the future despite a pause in ocean warming.
The Greenland Ice Sheet primarily loses mass through increased ice discharge. We find changes in...
